Pablo is Not a Giant Anymore. That's Okay.

The Giants suffered their first, and biggest, loss of 2014 free agency today. Pablo Sandoval announced (via Instagram) that he had signed a deal with the Red Sox today. The details haven’t been made fully public yet, but what we know is that it’s (a) 5 years, and (b) around $100 million.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sad to see Pablo go. His wink in 2014 before his clutch hit vs. the Royals, his three HR game in 2012 (which helped his MVP bid), the ever-present panda hats in the stands—there are a lot of good memories associated with Pablo. He embodied the weird relationship between the Giants and their fans. Players came and went, fell in and out of roles, but Pablo, Bumgarner and Posey were the constants. There were players that were the faces of the franchise and were consistently so over the last five years. Now one of the faces is gone.

You know what? That’s okay. I am okay with this. MLB has an uncapped salary structure and it isn’t my money, so I would have loved to see the Giants open their pocketbooks to resign Sandoval. They didn’t though, and every Giants fan sort of let loose a sigh of relief. While Panda has had his big moments in the limelight, he has also had a ton of other problems. Namely: the ton of weight he has gained and lost, and gained and lost… and gained. His weight, and production, has fluctuated wildly in his time with San Francisco.

There’s no doubting Sandoval’s skill, but his discipline may have Boston regretting this signing in 2017. Sandoval seems to have a serious issue with focus, which anyone can see by the junk he’ll swing at in his average at bat. He relies on his otherworldly hand-eye coordination—which leads to him hitting junk at his ankles or neck, as well as his impressive Fat Man Defense ™. That’s fine when you’re in your twenties, but his skills could deteriorate rapidly.

The Red Sox signed up for the post-season magic of Pablo Sandoval, but discipline issues may have them experiencing buyer’s remorse in a few seasons.

Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 2

Pro Tip for Giants fans Wednesday

Maybe I’m cursed? I thought the Giants would be able to continue their moderate success of late as they went down to AT&T Park South in Petco (Giants fans routinely “take over” the park), but instead they were swept without a second thought by the Padres. The Dodgers continued their dominance, winning 3 of 4 in Chicago, averaging 9.25 runs per game over that series.

The Giants square off against the Boys in Blue to begin this week, and with the Dodgers’ number sitting at 3 (combined Dodgers wins and Giants losses), the Giants need to take 2 out of 3 for the Dodgers to not take the division against their traditional rivals.

Jake Peavy (3-0, 0.93 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Dan Haren (2-1, 3.00 ERA, 16 K last 3 starts)
On July 26, the Giants sat at 58-47 when they traded a couple of minor league arms for the former Padres ace. He’d been struggling compared to his prior stint in the NL West, and since coming back to the friendly confines of the Best Coast, he has amassed a 2.16 ERA, 1.050 WHIP & 6.9 K/9 over ten games with the Giants. He has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for the Giants’ pitching staff that has seen the demotion of Tim Lincecum, the death of Matt Cain and the implosion of Tim Hudson. He will pitch well in this game, and give the Giants a chance to win this one.

Unfortunately, the Giants face off against a guy who has been as good or better than Haren over the same stint. Since August 1st, Haren’s starts are punctuated by a 6 ER effort to start it, and a 5 ER effort his last time out (at Colorado, so toss that one out). In between those two starts, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in any given start and a 1.70 ERA, with a 34/7 K/BB ratio. The Giants are a free-swinging squad and with the high-K rate of Dan Haren, the Giants will struggle to get anything going. This combined with the Dodgers’ offense picking up tells me that this won’t be pretty.

LOSS. 2-4.

Madison Bumgarner (2-0, 2.37 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Zack Greinke (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 14 K last 3 starts)
With a loss on Monday, this game will be for the Giants’ lives in the NL West race. Luckily, they have their ace on the mound for the game. Bumgarner is a Dodger murderer in his career. Against the Bums, he has held them to a 0.582 OPS, which is flat bad. He strikes the Dodgers out 24.8% of the time he faces a guy with a white LA on his helmet. As a Giants ace he should, and does, dominate their biggest rival.  He won’t disappoint on Tuesday, and will twirl a gem for what is likely his last start of the regular season (they’ll likely have nothing to play for this weekend).

Up against Bumgarner is Zack Greinke, who has been great in his own right this season. Greinke against the Giants this year has been his usual dominant self, and fewer 5 ER starts all season than Hudson has in September (more on that below). Greinke is also prone to crumbling in the big game, and can easily lose focus. With the Giants playing for more than the Dodgers, they will (hopefully) eke this one out.

WIN. 3-2.

Tim Hudson (0-3, 10.32 ERA, 5 K in last 3 starts vs. Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.57 ERA, 26 K last 3 starts)
LOSS. Tears will flow. The Giants’ fans lamentations and gnashing of teeth that follow this game will cause the heavens themselves to shudder. Tim Hudson is rocked for 35 ER in 0.1 IP, and the Giants are forced to play against Kershaw until they don’t strike out, resulting in the first 33 K, 11 inning game. Hunter Pence, frustratedly, throws his bat at the ball as it leaves Kershaw’s hand, resulting (somehow) in a double and the game is mercifully ended. Dodgers win this game and the division.

Okay maybe it won’t go down that way, but I can’t think of a more lopsided way for the Dodgers to win the division than the most frustrating pitcher over the last couple of weeks versus His Grace, Clayton of Houses NL and AL, First of His Name, King of the Mounds and the First Pitch, Lord of the Six Divisions, and Protector of the Strike Zone.

I know I originally said this was going to be a three-part series, but I thought the Giants would hold up their end of the bargain and not stink up the joint in San Diego. This will be the last of my Giants’ regular season series breakdowns for 2014 (barring an unlikely sweep). I’ll take a deep, close look at the Wild Card play-in game later this week, but for now, try to not cry when the Dodgers celebrate on Wednesday.

Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 1

Drumroll, please...

With their win yesterday and a Dodgers loss to the Rockies, the Giants currently sit at 84-68, and 2 games behind the NL West-leading LA Dodgers with ten games to play. They’re also the clubhouse leader for one of the two wildcard slots in the NL, up 2.5 games on the Pirates, who are, in turn, 2.5 games up on the Brewers. This makes them 5 games up on missing the playoffs with 10 to play. As I write this, however, the Dodgers are currently losing to the Chicago Cubs. And then I had to go back in and put this sentence in because the Dodgers took the lead back. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to assume everything is as the game started, with the Giants 2 games back of the Dodgers.

As of right now, MLB.com’s Baseball Prospectus-powered playoff probability odds chart has the Giants at a 99% chance of making the playoffs and the Dodgers a 100% chance… Forget the playoffs, can the Giants recover from their June (and July) swoon and actually win the division? Let’s take a look, shall we?

First, the Giants have won 10 of 16 games so far in September, including taking two of three from the Tigers and sweeping the Diamondbacks. Major contributions from youngsters Joe Panik, Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy alongside the bolstering of the pitching corps with the addition of Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit to the rotation have brought the Giants back from the brink of collapse. Up on the docket is likely the most important ten games of the season for the Giants. It’s split, and setup pretty well, for the Giants to control their destiny. Their magic number sits at nine, so if the Giants win out, it will include three Dodgers losses, giving them the division with a couple of games to go.

This will be part one of a three-part series, each outlining the upcoming series and how it will change the Giants’ post-season outlook.

Next up is the Padres, so let’s take a look how this series is likely to shape up!

Game One
Tim Hudson (9-11; 3.41 ERA) vs. Odrisamer Dispaigne (3-7; 3.63 ERA)

Hudson is the second Timmy this year to have a sudden collapse (though Lincecum’s was years in the making), and was bounced hard after giving up 6 earned runs in ONE INNING against the Dodgers on Saturday. Luckily, the Padres aren’t the Dodgers. Hudson’s last three starts have been absolute disasters, but he was walking into buzz saws in all three. At Coors Field and at the Tigers are unenviable starts for anybody to have to make. Hudson has faced the Padres twice this year, once in AT&T and once at Petco Park. In his start at Petco, Huddy managed to hold the Pads to three hits and one run over six innings.

Despaigne started off strong, but like Hudson, he has gotten lit up lately. He has given up 19 earned runs in his last 6 starts for a cool 5.18 ERA. Four of these starts, however, were on the road. Petco Park is a notorious pitchers’ park, and Despaigne benefits greatly. In his 7 home starts, he has only given up only 12 runs; compare this to his 8 starts and 32 runs & things don’t look good for the Giants.

Both pitchers will go solidly late into the game, and the Giants will take advantage of a pedestrian bullpen (now that they have traded Huston Street). The Giants’ relief pitchers carry bloated ERAs over the last couple of weeks, but solely because of the 17-0 shellacking the Dodgers laid on the Giants. Overall, I like the Giants bullpen over the Padres 'pen. This one goes to the Giants.

Prediction: 4-2 win

Game Two
Yusmeiro Petit (3-3; 5.18 ERA as a starter) vs. Andrew Cashner (4-7; 2.20 ERA)

Petit replaced Lincecum in the rotation, and since then, he has feasted on positive matchups and been absolutely destroyed by better competition. It’s very telling that he is the current record holder for most consecutive perfect innings and still has a mid-threes ERA for the season. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed a combined 2 earned runs in his two good matchup starts (vs. Colorado & vs. Arizona) and has a combined 11 runs in his other 2 starts (at Colorado & vs. the Dodgers).  Luckily, the Padres are a positive matchup for opposing pitchers; they’ve managed only 82 runs over the last 30 days, just about half of the #1 team, the Angels (166 runs), good for third worst in the league.

There’s only one problem, the Giants are facing an incredible pitcher in Andrew Cashner. His season has been almost an afterthought as the hurler missed a couple months with injury. He hasn’t given up more than 4 runs all season, and in his 5 starts since his return, he’s given up only 7 earned runs. He’s a pitch-to-contact ace, a 21^st century ace, who uses his stuff to suppress hits and the strikeouts are an afterthought.

Petit will give a valiant effort and Cashner will roll. This one will likely get turned off in the 7^th inning after Sandoval rolls another weak grounder to second base.

Prediction: 3-1 loss

Game Three
Ryan Vogelsong (8-11; 3.98 ERA) vs. Ian Kennedy (11-13; 3.80 ERA)

If you want the platonic ideal of a couple of middle-to-end of rotation starters, you’d end up somewhere between Ryan Vogelsong & Ian Kennedy, depending if you want more middle of the rotation (Kennedy) or 4^th or 5^th starter (Vogelsong). This game was an interesting one for me to try to figure out, but let’s give it a shot. Vogelsong, like Petit, seems to be a boom or bust player for the Giants. He’s given up 4, 0, 8, 2 and 3 runs in his last 5 starts. Before that, he was smooth sailing, allowing 6 runs in his prior 4 starts.

Kennedy is much more consistent, giving up 3, 4 or 5 runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. His strikeouts have still been there, but he has been giving up a good amount of runs to go with those strikeouts. While most of these starts have been on the road, he’s been seemingly immune to the park suppressing tendencies of Petco Park.

The Giants will win this one in the highest-scoring game of the series. The runs will total more than the rest of the series combined.

Prediction: 7-4 win.

Hopefully this has been a good read for you all! After this series, if things go the way I believe, the Giants will be closer to the NL West crown with 7 games to go (provided the Dodgers don't just keep winning...). I will be back after the Padres series to look at the real series for all the marbles: Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday at the Dodgers. If one team sweeps that series, it’s pretty much their division. This is the home stretch. This is why we watch baseball!

Go Giants!

Whats The Deal With Hunter Pence?

He’s not a hunter, and he’s not a pence. What’s the deal?

This off-season, Hunter Pence signed a five-year; $90 million contract to roam spacious right field in AT&T Park for the foreseeable future. Since signing that contract, Pence has 8 hits in 57 plate appearances. His .246 OBP is nearly 100 points lower than his career average of .338. Not a world-killing OBP, but good nonetheless. What’s the source of the problem? Is it like Belt, trying to whack it over the wall leading to bad hits? Is it impatience? Is it sheer bad luck? I’ll explore the problems plaguing Hunter Pence early in the season.

I’ll admit, I went in with a little bias. I assumed Pence was striking out a ton and failing to take any walks, all while hacking at the ball. It’s been frustrating watching Pence (who was one of my favorite players when he was with the Astros) be so ineffective early in the year. Unfortunately for my eye test, but fortunately for Pence, neither of those is true.  Hunter Pence has a career walk rate of 7.4% and a K rate of 18.3% (for a career 0.4 BB/K ratio). So far this season, Pence is actually more patient than he’s been in his career. He has an 8.8% walk rate, and a 17.5% K rate; these is a rough 0.50 ratio, and if this pace holds up, it would be his best such ratio since he had a 0.53 rate in Houston in 2009. So it isn’t that Pence is having a bad time at the plate, he’s actually having a good time taking walks and avoiding strikeouts (for Hunter Pence).

He’s also being patient. He’s #59 in pitches per plate appearance at 3.75 P/PA. While this hasn’t translated into hits, it shows that Pence isn’t just getting up there and hacking at the first thing that comes his way. Interestingly enough, I wrote the first paragraph before doing the research. This is an apology to Brandon Belt. Since Belt is getting a ton of strikeouts and not many walks, I assumed he wasn’t getting a ton of pitches per plate appearance. I was wrong. Belt’s in the top 40 (#38) at P/PA. I am so sorry Brandon, please forgive me. While Pence seems to be making good decisions at the plate, is he connecting? His swings outside the zone are up slightly, and his swing percentage in the zone is down like mad (13% lower than his career average). This, to me, says he’s either getting squeezed or having trouble seeing which balls he should be swinging at or which balls he should be taking. Overall, his contact rate is almost exactly in line with his career average. Pence may not be seeing the ball that well right now, and this could be contributing to his low batting average. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. He doesn’t seem to be hacking wildly (compared to his career norm).

A lack of patience & wild hacking don’t seem to be Pence’s problem thus far this year. Then what is it? It’s my old friend BABIP. BABIP, in short, is a measure of how lucky or unlucky a player is getting with his hits. It stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play, and the “luckiness” of the stat can be described in two different scenarios:

(1)    A weak dribbler that rolls up the line but never goes foul; this is a hit. Should it be a hit? Probably not. But it is.

(2)    A line drive hit on a rope that goes straight to the first baseman; this is an out. Should it be an out? Probably not. But it is.

Those are the two extremes that drive BABIP. All you can do is put the bat on the ball; unless you hit it over a wall (any wall, really, including those in foul territory, a ton of factors are outside your control. So far this year, those factors have conspired against Hunter Pence.

Pence’s BABIP sits at a cool .175, meaning that 83.5% of Pence’s hit balls that ended up in play are going for outs. The league average is around 70%. That seems like it’s some really nasty bad luck for Pence (who sports a career .317 BABIP), but he doesn’t seem to be getting good wood on the ball. His line drive rate has plummeted and it seems to have been replaced by useless old popups. This would account for the fact that his HR/FB ratio has also crashed to the earth—it’s hard to hit homeruns when just about one out of every 5 or 6 balls you put in play are harmless pop outs. Luckily, Pence is a professional hitter and knows how to play the game of baseball.  Pence’s luck will come around as he gets better wood on the ball (hopefully by rethinking his approach, given that he seems to not be seeing the ball very well).

All in all, after looking at the factors behind Pence’s dip in production, I’m not worried. Pence is notoriously streaky, and the Giants have played well despite Pence not doing too hot. Hopefully he’ll start to pick it up soon and we can get Ol’ Crazy Eyes back.

Throwing A Wet Blanket on Brandon Belt

As the second weekend of baseball winds down, Brandon Belt stands tied with Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez for the most home runs in baseball with 5. Now Trumbo, thanks to the Australia series, has done it in more games, but the three of them are the home run leaders right now. By all accounts, Belt is a lock to hit 25 home runs, and maybe even more. People are buzzing about Belt’s power, but maybe they should pump the brakes a little bit on Brandon Belt. There are a few reasons why we should probably temper our expectations for Mr. Belt. His peripherals, the park factor and the nature of his home runs lead me to believe that this early-season surge may add a dinger or two to his year-end total, but people calling for a 30+ home run year may be slightly disappointed. I anticipated a breakout for Belt, but to somewhere in the 22-25 home run range. He just happened to get a big bunch of those out of the way early on.

First, his peripherals. Belt has taken one walk this year in 49 plate appearances. One. Compare that to his 14 strikeouts this year and you can see that Belt is going up there lacking his trademark patience at the plate (he has a career 23.2 walk rate, meaning he gets a walk between every 4 and 5 plate appearances) in favor of trying to hit balls out. This rate is completely unsustainable, and there are only a handful of people in the league with as many strikeouts as belt with one or fewer walks:

Chris Johnson, Khris Davis, Everth Cabrera, BJ Upton, Josh Donaldson & Brad Miller

None of these players really profile out as superb hitters, especially Upton. Miller is just learning the league and Johnson is notoriously bad at taking walks. Krush Davis’s big knock was that he flat out cannot take a walk to save his life. When you look at the K/BB ratio, Belt is not in good company.  I know what you can say to this, and that is “small sample size!” Well my question to you is: what makes this small sample size statistic different than Belt’s ISO that is over 100 points higher than his career average, or the fact that one out of every three of his fly balls went over the wall. While Belt’s output thus far has been impressive, it’s been created by an unsustainable approach at the plate.

Second, Brandon Belt plays in one of the most notoriously spacious ballparks in baseball. Ask Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Crawford, a home run that is a home run in nearly every park isn’t a home run in AT&T Park. Bumgarner hit a shot to the warning track and Crawford hit a massive shot to Triples Alley, neither of which left the yard. Both would have been out in most ballparks, but AT&T isn’t most ballparks. In every year since 2011, AT&T has landed in the bottom five in home runs per game. This will be a problem for Belt going forward, as four of his five home runs were on the road, and at least one, maybe two, would not be a home run at AT&T park, as the following overlay shows:

I guess that last paragraph was sort of a two-fer. AT&T Park won’t sap Belt’s power; I anticipate his power surge causing his doubles to go through the roof. I just wouldn’t expect his hits to land on the other side of the fence as often as they have through the first couple weeks of the season. While I hope I’m wrong, I want to caution Giants fans to not lose their mind when it comes to Brandon Belt’s potential this season.

San Francisco Giants Preview Part I

With the Super Bowl now far in the rear view mirror, and the regular season now in full swing (no pun intended), it’s time to turn my attention from the NFL to Major League Baseball. Since most of my posts surround around the 49ers, you can probably guess that my baseball team of choice is the San Francisco Giants. The Orange & Black stumbled last year in their 2012 title defense, finishing with a 76-86 record, good (bad?) enough to tie the Padres for third place in the standings in the NL West. Unlike 2011, when you could point to Buster Posey’s broken leg as the reason behind the precipitous drop, in 2013, the Giants were just bad. Unfortunately, this was the year I was able to take in the most games in person (three), with two being losses.  It was a bad year for the Giants, and they’re hoping that they can improve on their record in 2014. There are questions to be had at every position, even with their best player, Buster Posey. I’ll address what I see as the biggest question marks for the Giants in 2014, question by question.

How Much Catcher Does Buster Posey Play?
Last season, the Giants locked up the face of their franchise until 2021 (with a club option for 2022) last year, giving Posey a massive 9 year, $167 million contract. The moment the ink started to dry on the contract, a big career-spanning question popped up: how long can Posey be behind the dish?  The Giants have already started to think about this problem, with Posey starting at first base in 18% of his 427 career starts. They’re clearly looking to avoid a Joe Mauer situation here with Posey.

Joe Mauer was signed by the Twins to a massive deal to be the catcher and the face of their franchise, but has had serious durability issues.  His contract closely mirrors Posey’s; 8 years, $184 million, and his position trajectory is one that Posey can expect, as well. Due to an inability to stay on the field (he’s been over 140 games played twice in his career) and Justin Morneau moving on, Mauer has been moved to first base this year. This is a situation that the Giants would like to kick down the road as long as possible, hence, them putting him at 1B at nearly a fifth of his games. This will alleviate the wear and tear (and stress) put on Buster’s body and will allow him to stay behind the plate, where his bat becomes even more valuable.

Doing this very thing hasn’t been a problem in the past, as the first base position has been one of weakness for the Giants during Posey’s reign behind the plate. Last season, however, saw the rise of the Giants’ best hitting first baseman in years, Brandon Belt. The next question that the Giants need answered is…

What is to be Expected of Brandon Belt?
Last year, Brandon Belt had a mini-breakout, upping his Slugging from .421 to .481 while maintaining his on-base-percentage. This translated into ten more homeruns in about 100 more plate appearances. In fact, this power breakout almost exactly doubled his homerun rate from the year prior. In 2012, Belt hit a homerun in 1.48% of all his plate appearances. In 2013, that number spiked to 2.97%. There is a lot of rumor and speculation around the league that Belt will continue his upward progress. According to an article last August by Alex Pavlovic in the San Jose Mercury News, Belt adjusted his swing after visiting the Philliles and discussing it with Domonic Brown. In the same article, Pavlovic notes that Bruce Bochy & (hitting coach) Bam-Bam Mullens begged belt to move backwards in the batting box. Both of these adjustments translated to a better result for Belt on the field.

When a player improves or worsens, you want to look for the impetus of that change. In this instance, Belt has a definite reason why his power numbers spiked and his average went up. His OBP staying the same indicates that his slugging spike doesn’t mean he’s trading taking good pitches for mashing the baseball. He took less walks, yes, as evidenced by his OBP staying the same while his AVG jumped, but this all could be attributed to seeing the ball better purely by knowing where to stand in the batters’ box. His BABIP is pretty high 0.351, but he maintained that across two seasons thanks to a ~25% line drive rate.

Full disclosure: before I looked all this up, I thought Belt’s power spike was a bit of smoke & mirrors. I no longer think that. In order to prevent from skewing my bias, I dialed up expert projections on FantasyPros.com. They average out to the following (2013 included for reference):

2014 Proj                             2013
AVG       .280                        .289
OBP       .356                        .360
SLG        .466                        .481
OPS        .822                        .841
HR          17                           17
RBI         75                           67
SB           6                              5

Now look at those numbers and tell me what you see. Experts agree on a Brandon Belt regression (except for one more stolen base and 8 extra RBI), while concurrently listing him as a breakout contender. I’m a bit more bullish on Belt. I like the idea of having him stand further back and adjust his grip over the course of a half season & a spring training. It will really allow him to adjust & capitalize on these adjustments. If it were up to me, I would probably change his slash line to something like .283, .360 (I like that OBP for him) and a slightly higher SLG, say, .500.  I would definitely peg Belt for somewhere in the low-20s for homeruns (though AT&T Park may repress a couple into doubles).

When it comes to all things Giants, I tend to bounce my ideas off my friend Joeburg. I hesitated to ask him, since he’s the world’s biggest Brandon Belt fan. He put the ceiling and floor as this:

Floor:
.280/20 HR/85 RBI/75 R/8 SB/.810 OPS

Ceiling:
.305/25 HR/105 RBI/85 R/15 SB/.870 OPS

I would be happy with anything that pops up between either of these projections, but I am cautious on Belt.  His career year in HRs will probably be 25, and I doubt that this is going to be his career year. Cavernous AT&T Park tends to suppress dingers (adjusted for Barry Bonds) but promotes doubles and triples. This will be a boon for Belt, who doesn’t have massive power (but has power nonetheless). Last year Belt hit 39 doubles, and this year I could see that boosting up to the mid-40s if not the low 50s.

No matter what Belt does, as long as he improves on his last year, he’ll be the best first baseman the Giants have trotted out there since JT Snow retired (no offense to Travis Ishikawa, John Bowker, Ryan Klesko and Shea Hillenbrand).

As I was going through the Giants starting first basemen since Snow retired, I found that there were a lot of underwhelming aging veterans populating those squads. Speaking of which…

When Will Marco Scutaro Be Healthy (And Will He Stay That Way)?
After the 2012 World Series win, Scutaro received the Brian Sabean Memorial Terrible Contract for an Old Man Coming Off a Career Year (AKA the Aubrey Huff Award). He didn’t play at all in the Cactus League this year and is just now taking grounders and swinging a bat. This isn’t a big deal if you’re a 22 year old young buck who can bounce back into game shape quickly. Scutaro is just about 6 months shy of his 39^th birthday, so a young buck he is not.  He has been dealing with soft tissue back and hip injuries. These types of injuries tend to recur even in those that are in the best of health. With current reports indicating that there is no timetable for Scutaro’s return, we could be seeing more of Joaquin Arias that we initially anticipated this year.

The recurrence issue is one that really gives me pause. Scoots is very old in baseball years and very old baseball players don’t recover all that quickly or all that thoroughly. While I doubt Scutaro will be out for a very long time with these issues, recurrences are really what I fear. Given that Arias is the super-backup and he’ll be posted at 2B full time. Scutaro is breaking down, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we saw more non-Scutaro players at 2B this year than Scutaro.

Speaking of recurrence of issues…

How Much Weight Does Pablo Sandoval Regain?
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Pablo Sandoval doubled down his off-season efforts to whip himself into shape and he’s entering the season. Sandoval fooled the world a couple seasons ago when he cut weight prior to the season beginning. He’s done it again this year, cutting a tremendous amount off his hefty frame. Given that he doesn’t have hamate bones to break this year, and that it is his walk year, AND that he has already made outrageous contract demands, Sandoval is likely to keep his weight off. I don’t know how to put this without making it sound terrible, so I’ll just say it: Sandoval acts like a child.

Now, he isn’t like a child in that he throws tantrums or is petulant in any way. He’s shown time and again that he will do something if it benefits him. He was quoted as saying he would worry about his weight in his walk year, meaning that he would stop indulging in short-term delicacies when it meant he could pull millions of dollars out of a team. That year has come, and I believe Sandoval will keep the weight off. Not because he will be a hard worker, but because he sees dollar signs.

I didn’t realize I was writing this thing into giant (pun intended) unmanageable chunks, so I’ll be following up with Part II tomorrow!