2015 San Francisco 49ers: Unacceptable

The 49ers have seen this a lot this season.

Torrey Smith said it, Jim Tomsula said it, Jed York has said it. Unacceptable. They keep saying it and the impotent admission of defeat behind it is frankly, unacceptable. Everything about this team is completely unacceptable right now and those running the squad keep pounding the table in faux-outrage, but the problem is really that there are no answers. There is nothing that can be done at this point. 49ers brass shake their heads and mutter unacceptable like this team wasn’t destined to be lucky to win six games this year. To think otherwise, to think this was a contender, was unacceptable. At this point, the team is a culmination of terrible decisions.

Leaking before the 2014 season that there were interpersonal issues between the front office and Jim Harbaugh? Unacceptable.

Inconsistent application of discipline of players’ off-field issues leading to your star pass rusher on a rival team up the road? Unacceptable.

The phrase “winning with class?” Unacceptable.

Trying to whitewash the Harbaugh departure as a “mutual parting of ways?” Unacceptable.

Insisting that head coaching candidates utilize Jim Tomsula as their defensive coordinator, causing them to balk at the prospect? Unacceptable.

Losing your offensive and defensive coordinators, both of which are flourishing, due to your insistence that your defensive line coach be promoted? Unacceptable.

Promoting your quarterbacks coach, whose responsibilities were the impotent red zone playcalling, to offensive coordinator? Unacceptable.

Having almost no useful graduates of the All-ACL Team? Unacceptable.

The entire 2012 draft class? Unacceptable.

Burning $5,000,000 in cap space on two defensive players who never played a snap? Unacceptable.

Spending a fifth round pick on a punter who can barely crack the top 25 (of 32) in terms of average punt distance? Unacceptable.

Drafting a player so early he was shocked he was drafted in that spot? Unacceptable.

Knowing Anthony Davis was pondering early retirement during the draft process and doing nothing to replace him? Unacceptable.

You could list essentially every player on this team but Aaron Lynch and point out how unacceptable their performance has been. What now? How often can you spout unacceptable before turning your gaze inward, and you try to fix what is happening?

The offensive line is garbage, yet you continue to start Jordan Devey, Marcus Martin and Erik Pears. Unacceptable.

The offense is directionless, as you continually eschew the little things that would help your beleaguered quarterback. He performs better from under center, yet inexplicably he ends up in shotgun repeatedly. He plays well when you roll him out, yet you have him stand there as a pocket passer. Unacceptable.

The last two should be laid at Jim Tomsula's feet, but that man is completely over his head. It was evident from his first press conference that the job was too big for him. He is failing spectacularly and thoroughly. You can't blame him though, more than you can blame a child for crashing your car when you force him to drive it.

Jed York and Trent Baalke bear the brunt of the blame for this unacceptable display, yet both have lifted up Tomsula as their fall guy. Their sacrificial lamb. His great story will have a terrible end, and both York and Baalke will continue on without repercussions. They are the orchestrators of this unacceptable team, yet they bear none of the responsibility.

Frankly, that is unacceptable.

Throwing A Wet Blanket on Brandon Belt

As the second weekend of baseball winds down, Brandon Belt stands tied with Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez for the most home runs in baseball with 5. Now Trumbo, thanks to the Australia series, has done it in more games, but the three of them are the home run leaders right now. By all accounts, Belt is a lock to hit 25 home runs, and maybe even more. People are buzzing about Belt’s power, but maybe they should pump the brakes a little bit on Brandon Belt. There are a few reasons why we should probably temper our expectations for Mr. Belt. His peripherals, the park factor and the nature of his home runs lead me to believe that this early-season surge may add a dinger or two to his year-end total, but people calling for a 30+ home run year may be slightly disappointed. I anticipated a breakout for Belt, but to somewhere in the 22-25 home run range. He just happened to get a big bunch of those out of the way early on.

First, his peripherals. Belt has taken one walk this year in 49 plate appearances. One. Compare that to his 14 strikeouts this year and you can see that Belt is going up there lacking his trademark patience at the plate (he has a career 23.2 walk rate, meaning he gets a walk between every 4 and 5 plate appearances) in favor of trying to hit balls out. This rate is completely unsustainable, and there are only a handful of people in the league with as many strikeouts as belt with one or fewer walks:

Chris Johnson, Khris Davis, Everth Cabrera, BJ Upton, Josh Donaldson & Brad Miller

None of these players really profile out as superb hitters, especially Upton. Miller is just learning the league and Johnson is notoriously bad at taking walks. Krush Davis’s big knock was that he flat out cannot take a walk to save his life. When you look at the K/BB ratio, Belt is not in good company.  I know what you can say to this, and that is “small sample size!” Well my question to you is: what makes this small sample size statistic different than Belt’s ISO that is over 100 points higher than his career average, or the fact that one out of every three of his fly balls went over the wall. While Belt’s output thus far has been impressive, it’s been created by an unsustainable approach at the plate.

Second, Brandon Belt plays in one of the most notoriously spacious ballparks in baseball. Ask Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Crawford, a home run that is a home run in nearly every park isn’t a home run in AT&T Park. Bumgarner hit a shot to the warning track and Crawford hit a massive shot to Triples Alley, neither of which left the yard. Both would have been out in most ballparks, but AT&T isn’t most ballparks. In every year since 2011, AT&T has landed in the bottom five in home runs per game. This will be a problem for Belt going forward, as four of his five home runs were on the road, and at least one, maybe two, would not be a home run at AT&T park, as the following overlay shows:

I guess that last paragraph was sort of a two-fer. AT&T Park won’t sap Belt’s power; I anticipate his power surge causing his doubles to go through the roof. I just wouldn’t expect his hits to land on the other side of the fence as often as they have through the first couple weeks of the season. While I hope I’m wrong, I want to caution Giants fans to not lose their mind when it comes to Brandon Belt’s potential this season.