Stop. Just Stop.

In the Lions-Cowboys Wild Card Game this weekend there was a controversial call that has been the talk of the sports world in the last day or so. It can be seen above. Rookie LB Anthony Hitchens is covering veteran Tight End Brandon Pettigrew. The result of this play was a defensive pass interference call on Hitchens, which was then picked up. By the strictest letter of the law, it was pass interference. Hitchens never turned to make a play on the ball and it plunked him squarely in the back. That wasn’t the controversy. The controversy came in that the refs then decided to pick up the flag and decide that it wasn’t pass interference.

The football world exploded. People posted a months-old article about NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino getting off of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ party bus in August 2014. This was their proof that, “the fix was in.” Stop that. Just, stop. Stop. STOP. That play did not cost the Lions the game, and if you’re going to fix the game, why do it in such a stupidly blatant way? There’s one thing in life that can explain away most conspiracy theories, including this one. It’s a principal known as Hanlon’s Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

To understand why this quote is apt, one should turn to the methods used to pick the playoff umpiring crew for the NFL. Basically, they take the top performing officials at each position and cobble together a crew out of them. This works in baseball pretty well. If your job is to call balls and strikes, the second base umpire has almost no bearing on your ability to do so. In the NFL, the referees are responsible for holding 22 men accountable for their actions on the field. Much like the continuity of an offensive line strengthening the unit, the continuity of a referee crew strengthens their ability to make quick, and accurate calls. In this case, when they conferred, they determined that it was not a defensive pass interference penalty.

Was this call wrong? Probably. Was it devastating? Absolutely. Was it a vast conspiracy to make Ndamukong Suh cry? Absolutely not, but I wish it was true.

Did it cost the Lions the game?

Absolutely not.

The Detriot Lions orchestrated one of the most devastating and mind-boggling second-half collapses possible. The DPI no-call came at a point in time when the Lions were still winning the game. They were up 20-17 with just over 8 minutes left in the game when this happened. The no-call didn’t put seven points on the board for the Cowboys. It didn’t even put one point on the board for the Cowboys. The play that cost the Lions the game was the very next play. After the no-call on the defensive pass interference, the Lions sat at the Dallas 46-yard line, essentially midfield, with a fourth-and-one. If they move the ball three feet from their position, the game was theirs. What does Jim Caldwell do?

Wait, before you answer, please reference this information:

(yards per rush allowed during the 2014 regular season)

(the four plays prior to the DPI no-call)

Did you guess:
(a) Hard count to try to pull them offsides before punting
(b) Pass play
(c) Run play

If you know Jim Caldwell, you know he went with (a). He is conservative to an absolute fault, and this was a complete fault. His call in this situation epitomizes the issues I have with current coaching conventions. Too many NFL coaches play to not lose rather than to win. The Lions could have easily gotten one yard, and chose to not even try. They were running the ball well immediately prior to this play. Instead of going for the jugular and the win, they played to not lose. How did the Football Gods react?

Swiftly and spitefully.

Detroit punter Sam Martin completely and absolutely shanked the punt, and barely flipped the field on the Cowboys, giving the Lions a handful of yards of field position compared to if they had gone for it on fourth down and failed. The Cowboys marched down the field and scored.  Now, some might say that the no-call on the DPI put the Lions in this position. I can give them that. If DPI is called there, the Lions move much closer and likely score on the drive. The only problem is the Lions second half:

“Likely score on the drive” was not in the Lions game plan in the second half Sunday, as you can see here:

As you can see, they had as many turnovers in the second half (though they were gifted one back) as they had points. The Lions stunk in the second half Sunday.

The real reason why you can’t blame the no-call DPI? The Lions fumbled the ball twice in the last 3 minutes of the game. Twice! The first time, Demarcus Lawrence coughed it back up and the Lions recovered. Not content to let the game be competitive, they farted the ball away again just about a minute later. Demarcus Lawrence redeemed himself, recovering the fumble and punching their ticket to the NFC Divisional Round.

The defensive pass interference call was demoralizing, yes. It was curious, yes. It did not cost the Lions the game. The Lions had a complete inability to resemble an NFL offense in the second half. It is for that reason, and that reason alone, that the Lions have moved into off-season mode. For those of you still complaining about the DPI…

Please, stop.

NFC Championship Preview: 49ers at Seahawks

I initially feared writing this piece. I feared that it would be me arguing my heart versus my mind versus my gut. This marks the third time the Niners and Seahawks, who many think are the two best teams in the NFC, go head to head. The series is split this year, but it isn’t as simple as calling it a “split.” Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were completely dismantled the last time they went to Seattle. I started to really dive into all the statistics, all the splits, all the opponent information and I’ve come up with a few insights about the game that don’t show too much bias but also put an interesting spin on the game that I haven’t seen put out anywhere else. I pulled all bias from this and tried to look merely at the numbers. Just the numbers (the blog can be temporarily named My Stupid Conclusions From Actual Statistics).

Niners Are Better than Seahawks in Rematches (Also, Down the Stretch):
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16.  A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.

The Seahawks have not fared so well in rematches this year. The first time through a team, they won in a blowout; 27.75 points to 10.25. In their second time around, they still won the majority of their games (as a 13-3 team is likely to do), but their offense fell by 8.5 points per game and their offense allowed 4.75 more points per game. This means that the Seahawks are less potent the second time around. Why could this be? Well, 4 out of their last 5 games have been rematches, including three out of four to close the season against the NFC West. The Seahawks have been the champs of the division all season long, taking the lead in week two and never looking back. It’s easy to get up and get ready for the #1 team in your division. It could also be that Russell Wilson has struggled mightily down the stretch (the passing game is averaging 40 fewer yards per game since their bye). Marshawn Lynch has admirably carried the load, but the sputtering offense has produced 3 fewer first downs a game since their bye, meaning Beast Mode is getting fewer opportunities. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks defense has responded by getting better, allowing fewer yards, first downs, and points.

The Seahawks’ Defense Depends on Turnovers (and the 49ers Don’t Give it Up)
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game.  Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.

Frank Gore Probably Won’t Repeat One of the Worst Games of His Career
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics.  The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.

No Percy Harvin
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch.  One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.

And the reason why none of the above may matter…

Century Link Field & the Home Field Advantage
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12^th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.

The perfect question was asked of me this week: “Can the 49ers’ win this weekend?” Can they? Absolutely, they can. Will they? That’s another question. There are a ton of factors that will play into it. Much like Carolina, I think experience and the hot hand will win out and the 49ers will advance to 5-2 against Seattle in the Jim Harbaugh Era. If Russell Wilson stops his current schneid, I’m probably betting against the 49ers, but given that he pulled off barely 100 yards against a decimated Saints secondary, I wouldn’t count on that.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The NFC

There has been much ado this week about the game-time temperatures at Lambeau Field tomorrow. They’re rumored to rival the Freezer Bowl. It will be the high when it’s just 5 degrees above zero, so you know it will be cold. Rumored wild chill factors will plunge it as low as -50 degrees. If you’re not sure, that’s very, very cold. Basically, every person who isn’t wearing sleeves is being kind of stupid. Eddie Lacy said he won’t be wearing sleeves. That will be kind of stupid. I imagine a lot of players will immediately start bundling up once they get their first taste of the action Sunday. For the Packers, they are hoping to get vengeance for three-straight losses to the 49ers. For the 49ers, they are looking to replicate their offensive efforts from their last two meetings. In the playoffs last year, Colin Kaepernick set QB rushing records, and in Week 1 this year, he threw for over 400 yards. Offensive Coordinator Dom Capers hasn’t had an answer for Kaepernick in meetings one and two; he & Head Coach Mike McCarthy are hoping the third time’s the charm.

For the Niners, they are among the NFL's hottest teams, winning six straight, including impressive wins over division foes in Seattle and Arizona. They're rolling, and they hope to continue rolling into the Meadowlands in a few weeks. Make no mistake, this team is built for, and ready to return to the Super Bowl.

How the Packers Win:
1) Important Player: A.J. Hawk
The Packers’ best defensive player, Clay Matthews, will be out of the game with a broken thumb. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Packers’ defense. Well, bigger than the gaping hole there usually is in the middle of the Packers’ defense when Frank Gore & Colin Kaepernick are involved. Matthews is one of the best linebackers in the league, so AJ Hawk has big shoes to fill as the de-facto new leader of the LB corps. He has the unenviable task of trying to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. How he comes to play will be a massive factor in the result of the game.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
The offensive line was a huge issue for the Packers in 2012. Rodgers was put on his back 51 times last year. This year isn’t much better; the Packers O-Line allowed 45 sacks. Going up against a front-seven that likes to get after it with space eaters in Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and sack masters in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis get in on it occasionally, too. What does this all add up to? If the Packers O-Line can’t hold up, it’ll be a long day for the Packers.

3) Important Stat: Rushing Yards
The Packers are traditionally a passing team. Despite their home stadium, they have been built for decades on the shoulders of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. They added another dimension this year in rookie Eddie Lacy. He has been a revelation for the Packers’ offense, and is likely the only reason they are in the playoffs right now. When Rodgers went down, the Packers trotted out a cavalcade of failure in Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn (their own Cerberus of Suck). Lacy just kept running and running, keeping them afloat for the return of Rodgers. Given that the weather precludes an aerial attack, the Packers will need to rely on Lacy. If he has a big game, they will be in good position to win the game. Having a good game isn’t as easy as it sounds against the stout 49ers defense. They give up more rushing yards than they have in the past, but they still ranked fourth in the league at 95.9 yards per game. The Pack needs Lacy to come through huge for them.

How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Colin Kaepernick
As Kaepernick goes, so go the 49ers. This year, when Kaepernick has his truly dreadful games, get destroyed. In their four losses this year, they scored under ten points three times. In their 12 wins, they averaged over 30 points per game. Clearly, this starts and ends with the 49ers’ signal caller. Kaepernick has become much better during the 49ers’ recent six-game win streak and the return of Michael Crabtree. He’s much more confident and poised and it shows that he’s a completely different quarterback with Crabtree on the field. This gives him three viable receiving options in Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. For the 49ers to win today, Kaepernick needs to continue his recent good play and the 49ers need to switch up the play calling, like they did in Week 17’s first quarter, where Boldin & rookie Quinton Patton both ran end-arounds. Patton’s run was for 26 yard rush made him the 49ers’ leading rusher last weekend, which tells you all you need to know about what was going on with the rushing game. That was a huge win for the 49ers because it showed that even if the running game isn’t working, Kaepernick is capable of pulling out a victory for the red and gold.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Carlos Rogers is most likely going to be out at Lambeau, and his backup, Eric Wright, pulled up lame at practice and is questionable to play. That means a copious amount of Perrish Cox, which means that the 49ers have developed a definite area of weakness over the past week. Luckily, the weather is going to be a significant factor tomorrow; cold stunts passing games, so hopefully the Niners missing two CBs should be mitigated somewhat by relying on the running game. If the Packers instead decide that they are going to pass it, it could be a disaster. Rogers and Wright usually covered the slot receivers in 2013, and on the Packers, that means that you’re going to be guarding Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson, two of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the best receivers on the Packers. Unless the 49ers rotate accordingly, it could be a long day for the defense.

                                                                                                               

3) Important Stat: Turnover Margin
In their 12 wins this year, the 49ers are averaging an over 2:1 turnover margin. In their 4 losses, they are averaging 2.5 offensive turnovers and 1.5 defensive turnovers. To the 49ers, protecting the ball and going after the opposition is the key to their success. They need to continue that on Sunday in order to move on and play the Panthers next week in Charlotte. That will be difficult on Sunday, as the Packers went seven games this season with one or fewer touchdowns. Turnovers will be extremely important to the 49ers’ success this weekend, and despite the Packers being stingy with the football, they actually gave up the rock twice in Week 1. While it’s a longshot for the 49ers to force multiple turnovers tomorrow, it isn’t outside the realm of reality.

The Niners have their work cut out for them against a Packers team that was missing several key pieces throughout the season & is stronger than their record indicates. Weather will also play a significant factor in what happens in Green Bay, and despite their natural climate, the 49ers are a “cold weather” team. Their success is built through the running game and defense, which are immensely “portable,” which, hopefully, means that the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be a massive task to overcome for them. I’m going with the homer pick here: Niners.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The NFC

In the only game this weekend that isn’t a rematch of a 2013 game, the Saints and Eagles—two of the NFL’s most potent offenses—face off. If the Saints were at home, they would be an overwhelming favorite; they aren’t at home, and they went a pedestrian 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. In fact, in non-dome games this year, they went only 2-4, barely eking out a victory in Tampa Bay & handling business in Chicago. They’re clearly a dome team (smart, given they play at least 9 games a year in a dome), but the compounding problem is that they’ll be playing in temperatures as low as 23 degrees, over 50 degrees colder than the friendly confines of the Superdome.

How the Saints Win
1) Important Player: Jimmy Graham
Outside of Graham, the Saints passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Marques Colston had a very respectable but un-Marques-Colston-like season. Darren Sproles continued to be a spark plug, ending the season with 71 receptions for 604 yards. The only problem is that Sproles would disappear for weeks at a time. Luckily, if the Saints have the Brees to Graham connection clicking, they should be just fine. A quick rundown of how important Jimmy Graham is to the Saints’ offense: he accounts for 19.28% of their receptions (86 of 446), 23.54% of their passing yards (1215 of 5162) and 41.03% of their passing touchdowns (16 of 39). If the Saints want a chance of winning in Philadelphia tonight, they’re going to have to go to Graham early and often.

2) Important Position Group: (Backup) Defensive Backs
The Saints lost two of their starting secondary players in the last seven games. They lost Jabari Greer to a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers in Week 10 and outstanding rookie Free Safety Kenny Vaccaro to a broken ankle in their game at Carolina.  Given the high pace and potency of the Philadelphia offense, the backup DBs who have taken their place will come in as extremely important members of the defensive unit. Their ability to step up to the plate on a handful of key plays may be the difference between an Eagles win or a Saints win.

3) Important Stastic: Yards Per Carry (Defense)
LeSean McCoy, if he knows his statistics, must be extremely excited for his matchup with the Saints’ running defense. They’re tied for fourth worst in the NFL (with the Chargers and Packers) at 4.6 YPC. This, combined with McCoy’s otherworldly rushing ability, means that Chip Kelly would be smart to dial up a ton of plays on the ground. If the Saints want to be able to move on to the next round, they’re going to have to figure out a way to cinch up that sagging run defense.

How the Eagles Win
1) Important Player*: Trent Cole
*Non LeSean McCoy Division

LeSean McCoy was the obvious answer here, but I outlined the Saints running game woes above & I didn’t want to just rehash those here. Outside of McCoy, Trent Cole may be the player most important to the Eagles’ success on Saturday. Cole is one of the Eagles’ sack leaders, but he spent his time since 2005 as a Defensive End, one of the big uglies with his hand in the grass. This season, Chip Kelly asked him to transition to Outside Linebacker. This position is still a pass-rush position, but with different tasks are expected of an OLB. Understandably, he’s struggled in pass coverage—that’s expected from a DE transitioning to an OLB, but his run defense and pass rush have been the best, combined, on the team, according to profootballfocus.com. Getting to Drew Brees fast and often will be the key to the Eagles’ defensive scheme if they stand a chance of winning Saturday.

2) Important Position Group: Tight Ends
DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant have been the main beneficiaries of the Nick Foles Experience, but Zach Ertz and Brent Celek will be key to the passing attack in this game. Ertz has extremely sure hands and Celek isn’t far behind him (5.26 and 8.57 catch rate—comparable to Julius Thomas & Vernon Davis, respectively). With the Saints worrying about Jackson & Cooper deep and McCoy rushing, the intermediate game should be available to the Eagles. This is where the Tight Ends shine. If the Eagles want to move on, they’ll need to recognize and exploit this matchup.

3) Important Statistic: Temperature
As outlined above, the Saints have been miserable outside of temperature-controlled environments, and Lincoln Financial Field tonight will be downright cold. This little bit of data is completely out of the Eagles’ hands, but this may be the most important statistic in the outcome of the game. The Saints played 10 games in domes this year (8 home games plus two road games at St. Louis & Atlanta) and 6 games outside. In the dome games, the average final score was 30.5 – 16.5; Saints. Inside, the Saints are averaging a two-touchdown victory. On the road, the final score was 18.17 – 23.16; opposition. Outside, the Saints are allowing an extra touchdown per game and muster almost half as many points. They’re also averaging 95 yards per game fewer outdoors. They’re a completely different offense outdoors. The defense also struggles outdoors, allowing 63 additional yards outside.  Granted, a lot of this can be attributed to road versus home, but the Saints lost only one game in a dome this year (including two road games) and went 2-4 outside of the dome. That’s more extreme than simple home/road splits.

This game should be a ton of fun to watch, with two high-flying offenses (second and fourth in yards per game, at just about 400 apiece) squaring off. The defenses will be hard pressed to keep up with the offenses that will be thrown out there this weekend. Ultimately, the Outdoor Saints will rear their ugly heads and won’t be coming away with the victory tonight.

Final Score: 38 – 31, Eagles.