No, Terrell Owens isn’t the Best Wide Receiver in History

Owens seen praying to Jerrice, Lord of Receivers

Today I was made aware of a posting on Bleacher Report in which Terrell Owens was touted as the best Wide Receiver in history. The article asserts that Jerry Rice isn’t as good of a receiver because he benefited from having a better team around him. The writer asserts Jerry Rice isn’t as good as his numbers indicate because Ronnie Lott played safety. This is literally a thing he wrote. In complete seriousness.

He then goes on to completely disrespect Donovan McNabb, who was better than any QB Randy Moss had outside of Tom Brady when comparing him to Steve Young.

After that he triples down by asserting Owens’ All-Pro nods as actual reasons why TO is better than multiple Hall of Fame players. Maybe if the All-Pro roster compared more than what the players did relative to each other that would be a relevant fact, but it doesn't, so it isn't.

After all this, he quadruples down and cites Owens’ 2010, a year he played with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and Carson Palmer as the reason why Owens was great. The writer noted that Jerry Rice was disqualified as the GOAT because of his supporting cast, and that TO did it all without the same, then he goes and cites the year he had two great players at QB and opposite him at WR. He cites that the receiver was on pace to recreate his best season (2001, according to him) when Owens had his 2010 shortened due to injury. Sure. Except 2001 wasn’t TO’s best season. I’d put that at 2007, where he had 15 TDs and 90 yards per game on 85 receptions or 2000, when TO had 104 yards per game and 13 TDs. So sure, 2010 was just as good as his best season, 2001, as long as you believe “best season” is code for “best fantasy season because he scored more touchdowns,” and even then it wasn’t his best fantasy season.

He finalizes his argument by talking about Owens’ productivity and long career. All while discounting the fact that Jerry Rice played so long he almost twice as old as some of his teammates his final year.

His argument makes no sense whatsoever and his “points” are completely disjointed, garbled nonsense. Especially since he ignores one massive, massive factor when asserting that TO is the best, and it is a point that any good baseball analyst (yes, baseball) will tell you: Terrell Owens played in one of the friendliest passing game environments ever, just behind the current one.

In baseball they are called “Run Scoring Environments,” and they have names we all know. Dead Ball Era. Steroids Era. Expansion Era. Dilution of talent, changes in rules and other outside factors changed what an “average” baseball player could do at the plate. All you have to do is look at passing and receiving totals over the last decade to see that Owens benefitted from one of the best “Run Scoring Environments” for passing games in a long, long time.

And he wasn’t even one of the best receivers of that era. Terrell Owens’ 2000 season was the most yards of his career, ranked 51st of all time. I am going to use this fact to show two very different things. First, since 2000, that is the 28th best receiving season. For those that are curious, he also owns #70, #109 and #169 of all-time (only the top 250 are ranked). In the current increased yard-totaling environment, TO doesn’t even come close to posting the best single-season numbers.

Second: Jerry Rice has eight of the top 250 receiving season of all-time, including #2, 24, 36, 37, 38 and 46. TO’s best season would be Jerry’s seventh-best. All of these were done in much lower passing environments. One way to track how much better Rice was than TO that accounts for their different passing environments could be, perhaps, percentage of total passing yards during their career versus the rest of the league? Well, Jerry Rice owns that hands-down. During Rice’s career, he accounted for 1.18% of all the receiving yards in the NFL. During TO’s career, he accounted for just about 1.01%. This, by the way, includes Rice’s garbage twilight years and his shortened two game season. Remove the two game season and everything after his age 37 season (the year TO “retired”) and you get an incredible 1.3% of all receiving yards during his time in the NFL. In his best seasons relative to the rest of the league, Jerry Rice accounted for over 1.7% of the league’s yards (twice). In TO’s two best seasons, he accounted for about 1.4% (again, twice). TO’s peak seasons compared to his peers was just slightly better than Rice’s “cleaned up” career averages.

Also did you notice I barely mentioned Moss? The case of TO vs. Jerry is so strong in the case of Jerry I don’t even need to bring up any other receivers. Rice is the hands-down GOAT and all others are pure pretenders to the throne.

That includes you, Terrell.

(and I haven’t forgotten about my positional reviews, RB/FB is just so depressing it’s hard to get through it)

Stop. Just Stop.

In the Lions-Cowboys Wild Card Game this weekend there was a controversial call that has been the talk of the sports world in the last day or so. It can be seen above. Rookie LB Anthony Hitchens is covering veteran Tight End Brandon Pettigrew. The result of this play was a defensive pass interference call on Hitchens, which was then picked up. By the strictest letter of the law, it was pass interference. Hitchens never turned to make a play on the ball and it plunked him squarely in the back. That wasn’t the controversy. The controversy came in that the refs then decided to pick up the flag and decide that it wasn’t pass interference.

The football world exploded. People posted a months-old article about NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino getting off of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ party bus in August 2014. This was their proof that, “the fix was in.” Stop that. Just, stop. Stop. STOP. That play did not cost the Lions the game, and if you’re going to fix the game, why do it in such a stupidly blatant way? There’s one thing in life that can explain away most conspiracy theories, including this one. It’s a principal known as Hanlon’s Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

To understand why this quote is apt, one should turn to the methods used to pick the playoff umpiring crew for the NFL. Basically, they take the top performing officials at each position and cobble together a crew out of them. This works in baseball pretty well. If your job is to call balls and strikes, the second base umpire has almost no bearing on your ability to do so. In the NFL, the referees are responsible for holding 22 men accountable for their actions on the field. Much like the continuity of an offensive line strengthening the unit, the continuity of a referee crew strengthens their ability to make quick, and accurate calls. In this case, when they conferred, they determined that it was not a defensive pass interference penalty.

Was this call wrong? Probably. Was it devastating? Absolutely. Was it a vast conspiracy to make Ndamukong Suh cry? Absolutely not, but I wish it was true.

Did it cost the Lions the game?

Absolutely not.

The Detriot Lions orchestrated one of the most devastating and mind-boggling second-half collapses possible. The DPI no-call came at a point in time when the Lions were still winning the game. They were up 20-17 with just over 8 minutes left in the game when this happened. The no-call didn’t put seven points on the board for the Cowboys. It didn’t even put one point on the board for the Cowboys. The play that cost the Lions the game was the very next play. After the no-call on the defensive pass interference, the Lions sat at the Dallas 46-yard line, essentially midfield, with a fourth-and-one. If they move the ball three feet from their position, the game was theirs. What does Jim Caldwell do?

Wait, before you answer, please reference this information:

(yards per rush allowed during the 2014 regular season)

(the four plays prior to the DPI no-call)

Did you guess:
(a) Hard count to try to pull them offsides before punting
(b) Pass play
(c) Run play

If you know Jim Caldwell, you know he went with (a). He is conservative to an absolute fault, and this was a complete fault. His call in this situation epitomizes the issues I have with current coaching conventions. Too many NFL coaches play to not lose rather than to win. The Lions could have easily gotten one yard, and chose to not even try. They were running the ball well immediately prior to this play. Instead of going for the jugular and the win, they played to not lose. How did the Football Gods react?

Swiftly and spitefully.

Detroit punter Sam Martin completely and absolutely shanked the punt, and barely flipped the field on the Cowboys, giving the Lions a handful of yards of field position compared to if they had gone for it on fourth down and failed. The Cowboys marched down the field and scored.  Now, some might say that the no-call on the DPI put the Lions in this position. I can give them that. If DPI is called there, the Lions move much closer and likely score on the drive. The only problem is the Lions second half:

“Likely score on the drive” was not in the Lions game plan in the second half Sunday, as you can see here:

As you can see, they had as many turnovers in the second half (though they were gifted one back) as they had points. The Lions stunk in the second half Sunday.

The real reason why you can’t blame the no-call DPI? The Lions fumbled the ball twice in the last 3 minutes of the game. Twice! The first time, Demarcus Lawrence coughed it back up and the Lions recovered. Not content to let the game be competitive, they farted the ball away again just about a minute later. Demarcus Lawrence redeemed himself, recovering the fumble and punching their ticket to the NFC Divisional Round.

The defensive pass interference call was demoralizing, yes. It was curious, yes. It did not cost the Lions the game. The Lions had a complete inability to resemble an NFL offense in the second half. It is for that reason, and that reason alone, that the Lions have moved into off-season mode. For those of you still complaining about the DPI…

Please, stop.

The San Francisco 49ers - A Year in Review: Part 1 - The Quarterbacks

Colin Kaepernick broke free for a 90-yard TD in Week 16
Source: Kirby Lee  |  USA Today Sports

Jim Harbaugh is a Wolverine. Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree and Frank Gore are free agents. Justin Smith is pondering retirement. Vic Fangio & Greg Roman have both interviewed for positions different for the ones they held for the 2014 49ers. This weekend marked the official end of an era. (Jim) Harbaugh was seen on the Ravens sideline sporting Baltimore gear last night. With the end of 2014 comes a review of not just the season, but of where the 49ers currently stand and the potential offseason moves for the future. This kicks off a multi-part review of the 49ers on a position-by-position basis (except special teams, I doubt an in-depth look at gunners and the long snapper is needed).

Quarterback                      2014 Review: C+                                                               2015 and Beyond: B

                             The Players                        2014 Cap Hit                         2015 Cap Hit
Starter                                  Colin Kaepernick              $3,767,444                           $15,265,753
Backup                                 Blaine Gabbert                  $2,011,587                           N/A (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Third String                         Josh Johnson                     $    335,294                          N/A (Unrestricted Free Agent)

Last season, Colin Kaepernick signed what at first appeared to be a massive contract--$126 million. In actuality, it was more of a “pay as you play” contract, wherein Kaepernick has de-escalators if the 49ers, or Kaepernick, are not successful. This season was thoroughly not a success. All is not lost, however, as Kaepernick’s season was only a failure when compared to the lofty pre-season expectations for him. I myself even said in the preseason that Kaepernick had way too many weapons to have any more excuses. After the season did not live up to expectations, many fans were clamoring for Alex Smith, claiming they preferred Captain Checkdown to the young gunner. Please, for a moment, review these season-long stats:

                                                          Player A                               Player B
Completion Percentage               60.5%                                    61.3%
Total Passing Yards                       3,369                                     3,144
Touchdowns                                  19                                           17
Interceptions                                  10                                           5
Yards/Attempt                               7.0                                          7.1
Sacks                                                52                                           44
Rushing Yards                                 639                                         179
Yards Per Rush                                6.1                                          3.4

These two players are pretty similar except Player B has only 5 interceptions and Player A is a much more effective runner. Player A is 2014 Colin Kaepernick with his “disastrous” 2014 and Player B is 2011 Alex Smith—the last full season he had as the starting QB for the 49ers. I understand that fans are frustrated, and I was frustrated right alongside them. There are fans calling for the 49ers to bench Kaepernick or bring in a vague, theoretical quarterback as “competition.” Fans are getting a little ahead of themselves, as 2011 was Alex Smith's best full season he had with the 49ers. As you can see, Colin Kaepernick is essentially the same player (if not more frustrating because instead of 2 completions for 7 yards, it's a completion for 13 and a completion for 1 yard).

Here’s the simple fact of the matter: If replacing a quarterback was so easy, then a lot of QBs would not have jobs right now. There are less than 100 NFL quality QBs in the world (factoring in age and eligibility), and the cliffs of elite, to great, to good, to mediocre, to awful comes very quickly, well within the first 30 or so quarterbacks in the entire world. The 49ers should stick with Colin Kaepernick, but the pocket passer experiment should smartly be over. He works best on the run and improvising. He is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, and he never will be. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a fine quarterback for the 49ers in the future, and it certainly doesn’t mean he’s a bust or a fraud.

Kaepernick received a C+ for this season because he performed poorly by our expectations, but he produced the most passing yards since Jeff Garcia in 2001, the second most touchdowns (to himself) since Garcia’s 2001 and the most rushing yards by a 49ers quarterback ever. The offense was uninspired, disastrous and moved in fits and starts, but by and large, Colin Kaepernick was a perfectly good NFL quarterback, especially by the standards the 49ers have had at QB since Jeff Garcia.

Kaepernick’s backups, Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson, will likely not be with the team next year. Gabbert was dreadful in his time as a starter with the Jaguars, and is an unrestricted free agent. If he is back, it is likely for his same salary—roughly $2 million. If all goes according to plan, he never sees the field, and the backup QB is a moot point. The third string QB, Josh Johnson, was a Jim Harbaugh disciple, playing under Harbaugh at SDSU. Johnson is 28 years old and at this point, he is complete as an NFL product. He is likely gone as it is unlikely he fits into the new head coach/offensive coordinator’s plans.

The 49ers quarterback situation was slightly better than mediocre in 2014, but I have hopes for Kaepernick in 2015 and beyond. He gets a B rating for the future since we’ve already seen what he can do when the offense is properly schemed for his talents. The rest of the QB situation will be different in 2015. It’s likely the 49ers draft a project QB late (like BJ Daniels) and bring in a solid backup veteran (if the cap allows, otherwise it’s more of the Blaine Pain Train).

This marks the end of part one of the multi-part series taking an in-depth look at the 49ers and what went wrong (and right) with 2014. I hope you all enjoyed it and I will be back with Part 2 – The Running Backs. 

Did TMZ Bail Out the NFL?

Why did it take TMZ for the NFL to do the right thing?

This morning, TMZ released shocking, brutal footage of former NFL RB Ray Rice viciously and repeatedly hitting his then fiancée Janay Palmer. We had previously seen the result of the altercation, as video of Rice dragging an unconscious Palmer was released earlier this year. In July, Roger Goodell and the league office handed down a paltry 2-game suspension shortly after banning Josh Gordon for a year for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy by the thinnest of margins.

By the thinnest of margins, I mean that if Gordon’s two urine samples been tested in the opposite order, he wouldn’t have been suspended. Gordon was voluntarily placed in stage three of the NFL substance abuse program, which led to the collectively-bargained sixteen game ban.

Obviously, outrage reigned. How can Gordon be banned for eight times as long as Ray Rice for two drastically different offenses, Rice’s obviously much, much worse? Well, it was collectively bargained, and agreed-to by the league and the players. The outrage in contrasting these two suspensions by the public was justifiable. Marijuana is legal in two states, and decriminalized in many others. In no state is domestic abuse legal. Clearly, Roger Goodell had miscalculated.

Time passed, and the outrage surrounding the two games descended into impotent mumblings and grumblings. Everybody knew Goodell was in the wrong, and clearly Goodell agreed. A couple of weeks ago, he admitted he was wrong and reformed the personal conduct policy (which the commissioner has the power to control) to be six games for the first domestic abuse incident and a lifetime ban (with an ability to apply for reinstatement) after the second offense. People applauded the commissioner for his admission of being wrong and the reformation of the policy.

The next day, he announced nine games for Aldon Smith (for a series of incidents). Still, Ray Rice sat at a two game ban and loss of a paycheck. Chump change for such a disgusting incident.  What could Goodell do? His hands were tied, he couldn’t go back and extend a suspension off of public outrage.

A few days after the new domestic abuse policy, 49ers D-Lineman Ray McDonald was arrested for allegations of felony domestic abuse. Six games, and possibly more, were (and still are) on the table for McDonald. This put the new policy in an awkward place. Jim Harbaugh preached “due process,” and immediately ripped a hole in the letter of the law. What happens when it’s a he-said/she-said issue, like the McDonald case seems to be? Goodell couldn’t suspend McDonald for something when he hadn't been formally determined in a court of law to be guilty. Does Goodell wait? Does he rule six games for just being in that situation? There was precedent for that; Ben Roethlisberger was accused of sexual assault (more than once) and though never charged, he was given a suspension for violating the personal conduct policy for even being in that situation.

Goodell’s firm stance, which had been thoroughly applauded, was immediately questioned and put to the test. As of writing this, there is still no result from the McDonald incident, and it appears, per Goodell, there won’t be pending the legal proceedings. The commissioner’s firm stance suddenly didn’t appear so strong.

Then this morning, TMZ released the footage of Rice. Less than 12 hours later, Rice was out of the NFL. This allowed Goodell to right his wrongs and attempt to recoup the credibility the league had lost. Ray Rice was cut by the Ravens and Goodell followed suit by banning him from the league. He went as far stating that no team could acquire his rights without Goodell approving it. In short, it appears as though Ray Rice will never be on another NFL roster, and given the CFL recently re-affirming that they would uphold any NFL suspension (with regards to Gordon), he’s likely done playing football in North America.  This is a very good thing.

It’s just a very bad thing that it took TMZ for Roger Goodell to get it right.  But he finally did; Janay Rice won’t file criminal charges, but the NFL can finally say that they did everything they could for her.

The real question is why did it take this long? What else could have happened in that elevator? Why did it take direct visual evidence for Janay Palmer's assault to have some semblance of justice?

Why isn't Ray Rice in jail?

Super Bowl Preview

I’ll admit, after Richard Sherman tipped the pass intended for Michael Crabtree, I went full-on bitter fan. My team’s season was over & I didn’t want anything to do with football anymore. I started looking fully into baseball & doing research for some pieces for baseball. The Super Bowl was placed on the furthest back of back burners, until now. The big game is today in New Jersey, and while some predicted a Snow Bowl of epic proportions, the weather is shaping up to be moderately cold and clear. This is good news for Peyton Manning and the Broncos, as Manning is notoriously worse in cold-weather games.  Manning is one of many, many players that will have an impact on the Super Bowl. Here I’ll break down every matchup in this super-sized Super Bowl super edition of MSSO.

Peyton Manning vs. The “Legion of Boom”
Richard Sherman (unsurprisingly) fired the first salvo of this competition, but he did it weeks ago when he did an article for Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback website. In his column, he praised Peyton for his ability but also got a dig in, saying that Manning throws “ducks.” Peyton conceded this week that he does, in fact, throw ducks. He went on to say that his ducks have netted him a lot of yards and a bunch of touchdowns. The Peyton vs. Sherman matchup is one that I’m not sure Manning can win play-in and play-out on Sunday.

Luckily for Peyton, his ridiculous receiving corps and the typical CB formation means that Manning won’t have to. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Richard Sherman lines up on the right side of the field 98% of the time. Unlike other corners who shadow the best receiver (in this case, by Sherman’s own admission, it is Demaryius Thomas), Sherman locks down whoever lines up on his side of the field. Put simply, Peyton Manning needs to stay away from Richard Sherman. If it was that easy, the Seahawks wouldn’t have had the stingiest pass defense in the NFL in 2013. Passing away from Sherman means passing towards Byron Maxwell & Earl Thomas (or K.J. Wright, depending on your target). Well, according to Pro Football Focus, you’re throwing away from the #6 cover corner and instead you throw towards #10 or #22 corner (or if you’re going towards the Tight End, that’s K.J. Wright, the #5 cover outside linebacker.

Peyton seems to be a bit overwhelmed with coverage issues in this situation, and it’s one that he’s not used to facing this year. The Broncos have faced only two of the top ten pass defenses on a YPG basis: the Texans and the Giants (and one theory on the Texans is they get crushed quick & early and teams would just run the ball to kill the clock). In the Giants game, on the very field where he’ll play the Super Bowl, he threw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a 69.7% completion rate and 7.1 yards per attempt. Peyton’s best trait, however, is taking what the defense gives him. He lead the team to 34 points (he doesn’t get credit for Trindon Holliday’s punt return touchdown), which is exactly as many points as the highest scoring Seahawks’ opponent in 2013.

And for all the talk of the “ducks” that Peyton throws, he boasted the second-best INT% of players that were starters all year (1.5% of his passes were intercepted, Alex Smith was #1 with 1.4% of his passes being intercepted). This is according to the data on sportingcharts.com.

Then we have the Seattle secondary. They’re just plain incredible at what they do; the best in the NFL. But then again, so is Peyton. The Seattle secondary needs to play exceptionally lock-down, since Peyton can quickly and accurately make sure the slipping defender is exploited. Luckily for the Seahawks’ secondary, they don’t slip often.  More important to the Seattle defense in the Super Bowl will be their pass rush, which brings us to our second matchup.

Peyton Manning vs. The Seattle Pass Rush
In the AFC Championship Game, on 43 pass attempts, the Patriots managed zero sacks and zero QB hits. I don’t know if Manning’s jersey even needed to be washed after the game. In fact, Manning was only hurried on seven of his throws at Mile High (according to Profootballfocus.com). Again, like the Seattle Secondary’s YPG (and likely a contributing factor to the same), the Seattle pass rush rated out as the best in the NFL (and by a wide margin) in 2013. Peyton actually faced the second-best pass rush in the NFL per PFF when he took on the Tennessee Titans in week 15. The Broncos managed 51 points and Peyton was, again, not sacked. He was hit only 3 times and hurried 10 times on 63 drop backs.

Peyton has no problem with the pass rush due to his pre-snap reads. He can read the coverage and the defense and knows where he wants to go before the ball is even snapped. He averaged a league-low 2.36 seconds to pass, which, if the Broncos offensive line can hold up, means that he will have enough time in the pocket for him to be comfortable.  Manning won’t tout a clean jersey in the Super Bowl like he did in the AFCCG, but contending with a formidable pass rush will not be a problem with Peyton. The only problem will be his offensive line wearing down.

The reason the Seattle pass rush is so effective is that they can rotate pass rushers that stay fresh all game. This cannot be said for the Broncos O-Line. The Seahawks have 5 D-Linemen that grade out as extremely good pass rushers per PFF & they effectively rotate these players in order to always have a fresh pass rusher available (on top of having guys like Bruce Irvin as situational pass rushers). The Broncos will have to go up big early if they want to keep these pass rushers at bay, since the Broncos O-Line is destined to break down and give up hits, hurries and sacks. The only question is if the game will be on the line when they do. 

The Broncos offense can’t & won’t be one-dimensional if they have any chance for success. They’ll need to get good games out of their backfield, lead by Knowshon Moreno.

Knowshon Moreno vs. The Seattle Run Defense
Seattle did not play a ton of great running attacks this year, and those they did play, by and large, were successful. Zac Stacy managed over 100 yards rushing against them, as did Arian Foster & Frank Gore. Surprisingly, Adrian Peterson was held to only 65 yards. Somehow Mike James tallied over 150 yards on the ground against them.  There isn’t really any rhyme or reason to who was able to have a big day against the Seahawks, only that it was rare. Knowshon Moreno made waves this year as he ended up over 1000 yards for the year rushing with 10 touchdowns. This was great for fantasy teams, but ultimately, Moreno didn’t contribute a heck of a lot to the Broncos offense as a running back, averaging just under 65 yards per game at just over 4 yards per carry.

Instead, Moreno chipped in 60 receptions for over 500 yards through the air in 2013. This will bring another wrinkle to the Broncos offense that the Seahawks will have to account for. If the Broncos can manage to keep the Seahawks in nickel or dime personnel, they can lighten the box or keep coverage off Moreno, and allow him to shine.

The Denver offense will have its hands full with the Seattle defense, the two great powers will smash into each other until one breaks. In fact, all the tension and drama will occur when Peyton Manning is Omaha-ing his way down the field. The guys playing while these two groups rest up hope to have a say in things, too.

Russell Wilson vs. The Broncos Defense
If the matchup between the Broncos offense & the Seahawks defense is a battle of Titans, then this matchup is the solid undercard. Neither team is known for these particular phases of the game, but they are both stronger and more dynamic than you would expect. It all starts with Sophomore play caller Russell Wilson. His ability to scramble and elude tacklers while keeping his eyes up the field is incredible. In fact, this ability may be exactly the reason why the Seahawks are in the Super Bowl. In the first quarter, he was able to elude the 49ers’ pass rush long enough to throw an absolute bomb to Doug Baldwin for 51 yards. This play keyed a Seahawks score that, thankfully for the 49ers, was only three points. However, his ability to extend plays and even take them up field using just his legs is vital to the Seahawks’ ability to pull one out at MetLife Stadium Sunday.

The Broncos faced three of the so-called “mobile quarterbacks” in 2013. They faced Terrelle Pryor twice, RGIII and Michael Vick once (before each was benched). Excepting Griffin’s 5 rushes for 7 yards, these mobile quarterbacks can do some damage to the Broncos defense, getting about 50 yards on the ground. In a game where the Seattle defense isn’t going to allow a ton of points, 50 yards from Russell Wilson could be the difference between Seattle winning and losing this football game.

The Broncos defense has a bit of an extra chip on their shoulder for two reasons. They’re playing without their best player, third-year linebacker Von Miller. They learned how to play without him early in the season due to his suspension, but losing him is still a big blow. They’re out to prove that they are more than the sum of their parts, and that the “next man up” doesn’t pose a problem for the Broncos. They’re also playing for Champ Bailey. Bailey is one of the better defensive backs in NFL history, racking up 12 Pro Bowl and 3 NFL All-Pro nods in his long and storied career, but this is his first Super Bowl. Long in the tooth, Bailey isn’t the player that he used to be, but he has the whole defense playing to get him his ring.

Free Agent acquisition Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been playing out of his mind this year, and despite Sherman’s boasts that he’s the greatest Cornerback in the game, he won’t even be the best Cornerback in MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Across the board, per PFF’s signature stats, DRC outperforms Sherman. He has more stops (plays wherein his actions caused a failure for the offense), a lower completion percentage and with more throws going his way. By Sherman’s own admission, great CBs get thrown-to. He has a higher coverage rating, as well. His weakness, compared to Sherman, is that he gives up longer plays. This may be because when he’s beat, he’s beat hard & with Sherman, he isn’t. Luckily for DRC, he’s not taking on world beaters.

Full Disclosure: My power went out right about here, so a lot of what follows is conjecture that hasn’t been fact-checked since I was without internet. I did my best to pull information on my cell phone.

Seahawks Receivers vs. Broncos Defense
The biggest wild card this weekend is the Seahawks’ receiving corps, mostly because Percy Harvin hasn’t been able to finish a game this season. He managed fewer than 20 snaps in both of his games played this year, going out with injuries both times. If the dynamic Harvin can stay on the field, he can cause nightmares for the Broncos D; he can lineup in the backfield as a running back, or take a screen pass the length of the field to the house. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos try to counteract Harvin’s playmaking ability. While they have Rodgers-Cromartie, they lost their second-best CB in Chris Harris Jr.  to an ACL tear in the Championship Game. This means that having DRC on Harvin means having inferior CBs on Doug Baldwin or Golden Tate. This could be an exploitable matchup for Russell Wilson, if he can get off his recent skid. He hasn’t been playing well as of late, and he’ll need to exploit the suddenly exploitable Denver secondary in order to do so. 

Beast Mode vs. Broncos Defense
Broncos are down Von Miller, but they can make it up by getting to Wilson with a mix of Shaun Phillips and Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton. Knighton has been on fire as of late, posting four of his best games in his last five. He’ll make life difficult on Russell Wilson, but he’ll also play a big role in shutting down Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch. Lynch excels in big games, coming up huge two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game with a 40 yard touchdown run, and who can forget the run that popularized Beast Mode? Ask the Saints, as he ran through, over and around the entire New Orleans defense en route to the 7-9 division winning Seahawks pulling an upset against the reigning champion Saints.

The Denver rushing defense was top-ten in the NFL in both yards per carry and total yards per game this season, so they aren’t used to getting run over. They have great playmakers not only in the aforementioned Phillips and Pot Roast, but also in Robert Ayers and Kevin Vickerson, who all graded out extremely well against the run this year. It will be difficult for Beast Mode to get going early, but much like with the Seattle pass rush, the Seattle run game succeeds by slowly chipping away at your rushing defense. In the NFC Championship Game, they weren’t getting much out of Lynch until he broke off his massive run, which is exactly how the Seahawks want to play it.

The Broncos and Seahawks ultimately matchup very well together. They’re two of the best teams in the NFL, and it’s appropriate that they meet up in the Super Bowl. The most prolific offense takes on the stingiest defense in a matchup that would make any NFL fan salivate. The other side of the ball has the Seattle pass and rushing attack take on a Denver defense that will match up very well against them. Ultimately, this game will come down to one big play. Like last year’s Super Bowl, where Jacoby Jones took the kickoff to the house. It could be a touchdown return from either Trindon Holliday or Percy Harvin, or a pick-six from one of the Legion of Boom or DRC. The problem with depending on turnovers is that while the Seattle defense thrives on them, the Denver offense does not give them up. While it’s more likely for Russell Wilson to throw a bad ball than Peyton, the Denver defense isn’t as opportunistic as Seattle.

With such an even matchup, I have to bet on experience winning the day. It’ll be a close one, but I think Peyton ties Eli and gets his second ring. Given that I honestly think the game will come down to one big mistake, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks come up with that play and I’m wrong.

Sorry about the late posting, folks. I finished this bad boy up and had to sit around waiting for the power to come back on. I doubt anyone will have time to read this before the Super Bowl, but I put far too much into this to just sort of set it aside!

NFC Championship Preview: 49ers at Seahawks

I initially feared writing this piece. I feared that it would be me arguing my heart versus my mind versus my gut. This marks the third time the Niners and Seahawks, who many think are the two best teams in the NFC, go head to head. The series is split this year, but it isn’t as simple as calling it a “split.” Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were completely dismantled the last time they went to Seattle. I started to really dive into all the statistics, all the splits, all the opponent information and I’ve come up with a few insights about the game that don’t show too much bias but also put an interesting spin on the game that I haven’t seen put out anywhere else. I pulled all bias from this and tried to look merely at the numbers. Just the numbers (the blog can be temporarily named My Stupid Conclusions From Actual Statistics).

Niners Are Better than Seahawks in Rematches (Also, Down the Stretch):
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16.  A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.

The Seahawks have not fared so well in rematches this year. The first time through a team, they won in a blowout; 27.75 points to 10.25. In their second time around, they still won the majority of their games (as a 13-3 team is likely to do), but their offense fell by 8.5 points per game and their offense allowed 4.75 more points per game. This means that the Seahawks are less potent the second time around. Why could this be? Well, 4 out of their last 5 games have been rematches, including three out of four to close the season against the NFC West. The Seahawks have been the champs of the division all season long, taking the lead in week two and never looking back. It’s easy to get up and get ready for the #1 team in your division. It could also be that Russell Wilson has struggled mightily down the stretch (the passing game is averaging 40 fewer yards per game since their bye). Marshawn Lynch has admirably carried the load, but the sputtering offense has produced 3 fewer first downs a game since their bye, meaning Beast Mode is getting fewer opportunities. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks defense has responded by getting better, allowing fewer yards, first downs, and points.

The Seahawks’ Defense Depends on Turnovers (and the 49ers Don’t Give it Up)
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game.  Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.

Frank Gore Probably Won’t Repeat One of the Worst Games of His Career
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics.  The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.

No Percy Harvin
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch.  One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.

And the reason why none of the above may matter…

Century Link Field & the Home Field Advantage
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12^th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.

The perfect question was asked of me this week: “Can the 49ers’ win this weekend?” Can they? Absolutely, they can. Will they? That’s another question. There are a ton of factors that will play into it. Much like Carolina, I think experience and the hot hand will win out and the 49ers will advance to 5-2 against Seattle in the Jim Harbaugh Era. If Russell Wilson stops his current schneid, I’m probably betting against the 49ers, but given that he pulled off barely 100 yards against a decimated Saints secondary, I wouldn’t count on that.

NFL Divisional Round, Sunday - The NFC: 49ers at Panthers

In a rematch of a Week 10 defensive slug fest, the 49ers travel to Charlotte tomorrow to take on the NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers. The 49ers’ last loss in Candlestick ever will ultimately be that loss to the Panthers. The Niners know that’s the case and in the words of QB Colin Kaepernick, “[the 49ers] owe them.” In the first game, the 49ers actually scored more times than the Panthers, but they were all field goals off the leg of Phil Dawson. There was one play that made the game last time, a 27 yard touchdown run by DeAngelo Williams, wherein Carlos Rogers screwed up twice. First, he ran straight into the back of another defender, and second, he whiffed on a tackle attempt as Williams ran past. If Williams doesn’t score there, the popular script for this game may be different. As it stands, the Panthers are one-point underdogs, which is an unpopular opinion among the Panthers and their fans, who feel as though they are being, “disrespected.” The teams come in with identical 12-4 records, and the 49ers winners of seven straight and the Panthers winners of 11 of their last 12. Neither one of these teams stumbled into the playoffs by any means. They feature two of the young, dynamic quarterbacks in the league and two of the top defenses.

How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Michael Crabtree
During the regular season 49ers-Panthers game, Michael Crabtree was one of three 49ers who didn’t play (if you count the severely-shortened day for Vernon Davis due to a concussion). The other one is Aldon Smith. While Smith’s absence was certainly felt, no return has been as incredibly beneficial to the 49ers’ overall success as that of Michael Crabtree. In the six games since his return, he has gone over 100 yards twice, and most importantly, the 49ers are undefeated. Merely having Crabtree opens up the rest of the offense. In the 12 games the 49ers played without Crabtree this year, they averaged 24.91 points per game on 308.55 yards of offense (173.45 passing, 135.09 rushing) and 1.45 turnovers a game. In the six games since Crabtree’s return, they are averaging nearly an extra point per game, over 50 additional yards per game (40 of those in the air) and the Niners are down nearly an entire turnover a game. Clearly, the offense that struggled mightily without Crabtree is clicking and flourishing since his return. His contribution will be key if the Niners want to make it to the NFCCG.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
Greg Hardy has already threatened to break Colin Kaepernick’s face if the 49ers’ Offensive Line isn’t up to snuff tomorrow. That’s a threat that likely isn’t going to sit well with the O-Linemen, who are very protective of Kaepernick. Hardy’s not exactly wrong, however. The Panthers notched six sacks in their first meeting with the 49ers, but Mike Iupati & Alex Boone were hobbled in that game. The Niners’ O-Line has been back together and playing at a high level for a few weeks now, and with the reigns off of Kaepernick to rush, they should hopefully be able to keep Kaepernick upright long enough to either make the throw or scramble. The one thing the 49ers’ offensive line was able to do well was run block, as Frank Gore went for 82 yards at over 5 yards a clip in their first meeting. Should the 49ers want to win tomorrow, the offensive line is going to have to keep Kaepernick off the turf in the backfield and ensure that Gore can get enough yards down field per attempt to keep the Panthers’ offense on the sidelines.

3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Attempt
In their four losses this season, Colin Kaepernick has averaged under 6 yards per attempt, and, excepting the win against the Seahawks, he did not go under 7 yards per attempt in any win this year. Clearly, the 49ers go as their quarterback goes, and if the 49ers want to have a winning formula, they will need to ensure that Kaepernick is put in a position where he can get that 7+ yards per attempt mark that they desperately need for him to win. The running game will be there, despite it being more difficult against one of the league’s best front sevens, who are allowing only 86.9 yards per game, second in the NFL. The Niners have shown that they can win when the running game isn’t up to snuff (see: Week 17 against the league-best-rushing-D Arizona Cardinals), but they’ve proven this year that if they have a downright awful passing game, the rest of the team is not strong enough to overcome it.

How the Panthers Win:
1) Important Player: Greg Olsen
With Steve Smith severely hobbled, and a receiving corps consisting of Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, Jr., it is obvious that Cam’s second option throughout most of the year will become his most important target against the 49ers. The 49ers have struggled in the short-intermediate passing game. They usually play man on the edges and zone in the middle, allowing for short, quick passes to be complete. Luckily for them, the Niners do this because they boast one of the best tackling defenses in the league. If the Panthers want success, they may have to dink & dunk to their tight end, as, even with Carlos Rogers likely not playing, the rest of the passing game is pretty much non-existent. The only thing to worry about is a deep ball over the top to speedster Ted Ginn. Luckily, Ginn was a 49er from 2010 until 2012, meaning that the defense has some serious experience in guarding Ginn. LaFell isn’t a huge threat, nor is Domenik Hixon. That leaves Olsen, alone, as Cam’s best option on a lot of plays if the Niners choose to roll coverage over to the side of the hobbled Smith. He was surprisingly effective this year, quietly tying for eighth most Tight End touchdowns (with former 49er Delanie Walker) and tenth in yards per game. He’s not a big, flashy name, but he is not to be ignored.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
When anyone talks about how great the Panthers defense is, they usually give the caveat that they’re talking about the front seven. If there is an area that is suspect on this defense, it is the defensive backs. Captain Munnerlyn was clearly their best defensive back, which means that whoever is up against Melvin White should be the target on the offense. Given that Luke Kuechly could be covering Davis, the key will be taking advantage of whichever of Crabtree or Boldin is being guarded by Melvin White, who, by Pro Football Focus standards, is their worst Cornerback in pass coverage. The Panthers will need a big day out of their Cornerbacks to stop the suddenly dynamic 49ers’ Wide Receiver corps.  

3) Important Statistic: Rushing Yards
The Panthers employ a three-headed (four, if you count Cam) monster at the running back position. Between Williams, Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, they offer different looks to the opposing offense. In order for the Panthers to move on to Seattle, they’ll need to make the most of those looks. As outlined above, the Panthers receiving corps will be left wanting for talent if Smith is completely hobbled. That means the game will fall on the shoulders of the running backs. Much like in San Francisco in Week Ten, this doesn’t necessarily mean disaster for the Panthers. Given that in the first matchup, it came down to the Panthers successfully executing their running game to score the game’s only touchdown, you shouldn’t be too surprised if the running game is central to any success they may have tomorrow against the 49ers.

Choosing between the Panthers and the 49ers for me has been an argument between head, heart and gut. Heart, obviously, favors the Niners, so I had to set that one aside to try to be objective. Head tells me that the Panthers shut down everything on defense and do just enough on offense to make sure their team comes out ahead (2011 49ers, anyone?). Gut, however, tells me that I am going to favor the team that’s been on a roll. A team that’s clicking and coming together at just the right time. A 49ers’ squad that has one in spectacular fashion three games in a row. With all their weapons in place and clicking at the right time, I am going to take a Niners team on the road in a defensive slugfest. They’re playing better football right now than the Panthers and this core squad is playing in their seventh playoff game under Coach Harbaugh, while Riverboat Ron & company will be playing the Panthers’ first playoff game since they lost to the Cardinals in 2008 (after losing to the Seahawks in 2005—they must hate facing the NFC West in the playoffs). I’ll go with the experienced squad. I’ll go Niners in a knock-down, drag-out brawl.

NFL Divisional Round, Saturday - The AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Colts and the Patriots square off today for what feels like an annual playoff tradition. The only problem is that this has traditionally been a matchup between the Peyton Manning-led Colts and the Tom Brady-led Patriots. Manning has moved on to Denver, and his replacement, Andrew Luck, is hoping that he will have better luck against Brady than Manning did. In their 13 Colts vs. Patriots matchups, Brady holds the edge, 9-4 (including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs). The Colts vs. the Patriots has become one of the marquee matchups in the AFC on the heels of the Manning-Brady showdown. Given the anticipated conditions and the current lineups of the two squads, it appears as though this won’t be the QB-off we’ve gotten used to when they square off. A terrible forecast and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected (depending on your source). If there is going to be a lot of scoring here, it isn’t going to be through the air.

How the Colts Win:
1) Important Player: Andrew Luck
It’s hard to believe when you look at him and the way he conducts himself on the field, but Andrew Luck is at the tail-end of his second year in the NFL. He has a short memory that is key for quarterbacks to be successful. In this game, he’ll need to play near-perfect after nearly losing the game last week. I contend that the quarterback lived up to his name last week, including a fumble that bounced off a defender into his hands for a score. He’ll need some of that juju as he takes on a weakened Patriots defense that will be, suddenly, without LB Brandon Spikes. Luck is not only a great physical specimen, he is a very smart quarterback. The Patriots will have a different look with different players out there. The Colts will need him to use his brain to perfection to pull out a win in Foxborough.

2) Important Position Group: Non-T.Y. Hilton Receivers
The book on Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes is that he likes to take away what you do best. After last week’s game in Indianapolis, that looks to be going towards T.Y. Hilton. LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener will need to come up huge in order for the Colts to come away with the victory in this one. Luckily, Luck is adept at finding the open receivers—something he’s been forced to learn quickly with his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, going out in the middle of the season. He responded by targeting mostly Hilton, but has gotten unsung players Whalen and Rogers in the mix, making sure he can beat opposing defenses when they shut down Hilton.

3) Important Statistic: Sacks
More specifically, Robert Mathis. The Colts’ ability to get their best pass rusher into the backfield to disrupt opposing offenses is the basis of their defense. They’ll need Mathis to have a good game and the rest of the defense to hold to prevent Brady from zipping the ball out when Mathis gets close. This will be a question of getting Brady onto his back early and often in order for him to prevent taking advantage of the banged up Colts secondary.  

How the Patriots Win:
1) Important Player: Tom Brady (duh)
Throughout the years, Tom Brady has played with a  varied cast of receivers. He’s had superstars in Randy Moss and he’s had complete schlubs like Aaron Dobson. The one thing that has stayed true has been Tom Brady’s ability to control the offense and produce. No matter who you put around him, Brady produces year in and year out. As long as Brady plays, he is the most important player for the Patriots’ success, bar none.

2) Important Position Group: Running Backs
The weather is going to be atrocious today, and that means that whichever team wins the ground game will likely win the actual game. The running back stable of Ridley, Blout & Vereen is one of the best around, and is definitely better than Donald Brown & Trent Richardson. Brady may be the most important player for the Patriots, but his decision-making to defer to the running backs may mean the difference between a Colts win and a Patriots win. If the weather was better, it wouldn’t be as important for the Patriots to have a successful running game. However, the weather will be terrible, so the running backs will need to be stupendous.

3) Important Statistic: Defensive Yards Per Carry
As I already outlined with the above point, the weather is going to be horrendous. Both teams will need to take to the ground for success in this one. The defensive line and linebacking corps of the Patriots has been decimated, including the recent loss of Brandon Spikes. If you’re the Colts, and you look at the fact that you have to beat the Patriots on the ground, you’re somewhat okay with that. The middle is absolutely decimated, and, while the Brown-Richardson combo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, they’ll be key this game. If the Patriots can hold the line and contain the running backs for the Colts, they’ll be punching their card to the AFC Championship Game.

This has been an up-and-down season for the Colts, who have beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos and Chiefs. They’re truly Giant Killers, but they also had down games—losing to the Rams and the Dolphins along the way. Andrew Luck and the rest of the team have made a great run of it this year. However, who am I to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? It’ll be uglier than ugly, but the Patriots have been built around their running game for a few weeks now. With an impressive stable of backs up against Donald Brown and Trent Richardson… Give me the Patriots.

NFL Divisional Round, Saturday - The NFC: Saints at Seahawks

Fresh off the heels of their first road playoff victory in Philadelphia, the Saints are the first team to face the toughest go in the postseason, traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks & The 12^th Man in Century Link Field. The Saints weren’t up to the task earlier in the year, so it’s hard to imagine them being up to the task in the post-season. It’s the first Seahawks home game since the infamous Beast Mode Run, wherein Marshawn Lynch shed a tackle from, and I’m not sure about this, all 53 men on the roster as well as Sean Peyton en route to a touchdown and a complete embarrassment of the reigning Super Bowl Champion. The Saints already lost once in Seattle this year, and Drew Brees & company are hoping for a different result. Both teams are two of the top defenses in the NFL, so this should be a good one to watch. The victor takes on the winner of the 49ers-Panthers game next week for the chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If the Seahawks win, they’ll host the game at “The Clink.” If the Saints win, they’ll take their road show to either Charlotte or San Francisco.

How the Saints Win:
1) Important Player: Mark Ingram
Last week, arguably the most important factor to the Saints’ victory over the Eagles was Ingram’s ability to rush the ball. He totaled 18 carries for 97 yards and a score, going for just under 5.4 yards per carry. Granted, the Seahawks’ defense and the Eagles’ defense aren’t exactly comparable, but in actuality, they are both extremely good against the run (3.8 YPC for Eagles to 3.9 YPC for the Seahawks). Given the “Legion of Boom’s” propensity for shutting down receivers, and the heavy winds expected in Seattle today, the Saints are going to have to do it with the run game to get it done today. With Mark Ingram becoming the lead back, his ability to run the ball will be vital today. In their first matchup, Ingram was not able to do much with his carries; going 8 for 22 yards before the Saints were forced to abandon the run in an attempt to make up their massive deficit. If the Saints can establish Ingram early & often, and maybe even take the lead, they can keep the Seahawks’ offense off the field and maybe pull out a win.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Line
Russell Wilson is a magician. He gets out of crazy tight jams behind the line of scrimmage that would make Harry Houdini blush. Add onto that Marshawn Lynch’s 4.2 yards per carry ranked second among all running backs with 300 or more rushes this year, behind only LeSean McCoy’s 5.1 YPC. Shutting down Wilson’s pocket and stopping Beast Mode will be key to the Saints’ success today. Both are a massive test, but the Saints showed last week that they can do both. According to profootballfocus.com, Foles had a 74.5% completion with less than 2.5 seconds to throw and 55.9% completion with more than 2.5 seconds in the regular season. The Saints were able to slash the first figure to 56.3% last week, but breakdowns in coverage led to an 82.4% completion percentage when he had more than 2.5 seconds. Russell Wilson is the king of quarterback improv, and the Saints will need to keep him contained and making quick decisions if they want to win. The key to this is the Defensive Line getting pressure on Wilson.

The Defensive Line will also be key in stopping Lynch. In their first meeting, the Saints were able to key in on Lynch, stopping him to the tune of 16 rushes for 45 yards, or 2.8 YPC. Subtract a 14 yard run, and it’s 15 for 31; a pedestrian day by anybody’s standards. If they can contain Wilson’s improv and shut down Beat Mode, the Saints stand a chance.

3) Important Statistic: Drew Brees’ Time in the Pocket
Brees led the NFL in dropbacks lasting more than 2.5 seconds; allowing the play to develop, waiting for breakdowns in coverage and finding the right man are all hallmarks of Brees’ game. This means the O-Line will need to hold up against the tough Seattle pass rush. Surprisingly, in their first meeting, Brees was only sacked once. Given that Brees was put in the turf 37 times this season that was a good day for the Saints O-Line. Not so much, though, when you factor in 3 hits and 9 hurries for Brees. Like previously said, he needs a lot of time in the pocket for the play to develop to get his team a win. If he’s rushed, he’s less effective. The Saints Offensive Line, just like their Defensive Line, will be key to the Saints potentially moving forward to face the Niners or Panthers.

How the Seahawks Win:
1) Important Player: Percy Harvin
I know it’s sort of strange to make Harvin, a player who has played one game with 1 catch for 17 yards, the key player to the Seahawks’ victory. A player that was an extreme non-factor in the regular season (12-3 without him, 1-0 with him). However, Harvin is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers and the Seahawks would be crazy to not force-feed him targets. There is exactly one game of tape on Harvin in this system (with limited snaps) and the Saints have not been able to gameplan for him. Like Kaepernick and the read option in last year’s playoffs, Harvin could be the unknown wrinkle that leads the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The reason Harvin is key to the Seahawks success now is that they now have their shiny new toy to play with. If it breaks immediately, they can go back to Tate or Baldwin, but if it’s ineffective, continuing to play with their shiny new toy may be their end.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
The Saints live and die by the pass, and your team would, too, if they had Drew Brees at quarterback. The Seahawks provide the perfect foil to the Saints’ passing attack, allowing the league-lowest 5.8 yards per attempt with a league-high 28 interceptions. The “Legion of Boom” seems custom-built to take out the second offense in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. It will be a battle of titans as Brees tries to fit it past the Seahawks’ defensive backs. The biggest obstacle for the DBs to overcome is the handling of Jimmy Graham. Graham was banged up earlier in the year at their meeting and was absolutely shut down by KJ Wright. Wright held Graham to 3 catches for 42 yards and a score (the score was a 2 yard chip shot, however.

The only problem, for the Seahawks, is that Wright is currently sidelined with a broken bone in his foot. His ability to shut down Graham will be sorely missed, as the Saints’ Tight End creates a unique matchup nightmare; this is a nightmare the Seahawks secondary is prepared to defend, but will be a key focus to move the Seahawks on to the NFC Championship Game.

3) Important Statistic: Decibel Level
The Seahawks broke the outdoor stadium noise world record twice this year, and have one of the most consistently loud stadiums in the NFL. Some of this is through the design; expertly built to reflect noise back onto the field, and part of this is the Seahawks fan base. They make road teams trying to hear each other at the line of scrimmage nearly impossible (this is key for the offense). This leads to wasted timeouts, delay of game penalties and poor communication overall. The Saints will try to combat this with earplugs (like last time) and by practicing all week with speakers blaring at practice. By some reports, they blew out two of these speakers trying to recreate the Clink’s highly audible fans.

The Saints are hoping to win their second road playoff game of all-time, and doing so at the site of a previous playoff embarrassment.  The Seahawks are hoping to continue their roll of success and avoiding being one-and-done in the playoffs. The Seahawks absolutely dominated the league for most of the year, but stumbled into the playoffs, splitting their last four games against the Niners, Giants, Cardinals and Rams. They lost to the two playoff-caliber teams of the four, but ended the season on a high-note, demolishing the Rams 27-9. Now that the road win monkey is off their back, and with one game of Clink noise already under their belt, the Saints are hoping a steady diet of Mark Ingram and putting Russell Wilson on his back will lead them to victory. Ultimately, you’d be stupid to not go with the better team at home in one of the biggest home-field advantages in sports. It pains me to say this, especially since it will be denying the 49ers a potential last game in Candlestick, but I’ll take the Seattle Seahawks in this one.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The NFC

There has been much ado this week about the game-time temperatures at Lambeau Field tomorrow. They’re rumored to rival the Freezer Bowl. It will be the high when it’s just 5 degrees above zero, so you know it will be cold. Rumored wild chill factors will plunge it as low as -50 degrees. If you’re not sure, that’s very, very cold. Basically, every person who isn’t wearing sleeves is being kind of stupid. Eddie Lacy said he won’t be wearing sleeves. That will be kind of stupid. I imagine a lot of players will immediately start bundling up once they get their first taste of the action Sunday. For the Packers, they are hoping to get vengeance for three-straight losses to the 49ers. For the 49ers, they are looking to replicate their offensive efforts from their last two meetings. In the playoffs last year, Colin Kaepernick set QB rushing records, and in Week 1 this year, he threw for over 400 yards. Offensive Coordinator Dom Capers hasn’t had an answer for Kaepernick in meetings one and two; he & Head Coach Mike McCarthy are hoping the third time’s the charm.

For the Niners, they are among the NFL's hottest teams, winning six straight, including impressive wins over division foes in Seattle and Arizona. They're rolling, and they hope to continue rolling into the Meadowlands in a few weeks. Make no mistake, this team is built for, and ready to return to the Super Bowl.

How the Packers Win:
1) Important Player: A.J. Hawk
The Packers’ best defensive player, Clay Matthews, will be out of the game with a broken thumb. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Packers’ defense. Well, bigger than the gaping hole there usually is in the middle of the Packers’ defense when Frank Gore & Colin Kaepernick are involved. Matthews is one of the best linebackers in the league, so AJ Hawk has big shoes to fill as the de-facto new leader of the LB corps. He has the unenviable task of trying to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. How he comes to play will be a massive factor in the result of the game.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
The offensive line was a huge issue for the Packers in 2012. Rodgers was put on his back 51 times last year. This year isn’t much better; the Packers O-Line allowed 45 sacks. Going up against a front-seven that likes to get after it with space eaters in Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and sack masters in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis get in on it occasionally, too. What does this all add up to? If the Packers O-Line can’t hold up, it’ll be a long day for the Packers.

3) Important Stat: Rushing Yards
The Packers are traditionally a passing team. Despite their home stadium, they have been built for decades on the shoulders of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. They added another dimension this year in rookie Eddie Lacy. He has been a revelation for the Packers’ offense, and is likely the only reason they are in the playoffs right now. When Rodgers went down, the Packers trotted out a cavalcade of failure in Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn (their own Cerberus of Suck). Lacy just kept running and running, keeping them afloat for the return of Rodgers. Given that the weather precludes an aerial attack, the Packers will need to rely on Lacy. If he has a big game, they will be in good position to win the game. Having a good game isn’t as easy as it sounds against the stout 49ers defense. They give up more rushing yards than they have in the past, but they still ranked fourth in the league at 95.9 yards per game. The Pack needs Lacy to come through huge for them.

How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Colin Kaepernick
As Kaepernick goes, so go the 49ers. This year, when Kaepernick has his truly dreadful games, get destroyed. In their four losses this year, they scored under ten points three times. In their 12 wins, they averaged over 30 points per game. Clearly, this starts and ends with the 49ers’ signal caller. Kaepernick has become much better during the 49ers’ recent six-game win streak and the return of Michael Crabtree. He’s much more confident and poised and it shows that he’s a completely different quarterback with Crabtree on the field. This gives him three viable receiving options in Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. For the 49ers to win today, Kaepernick needs to continue his recent good play and the 49ers need to switch up the play calling, like they did in Week 17’s first quarter, where Boldin & rookie Quinton Patton both ran end-arounds. Patton’s run was for 26 yard rush made him the 49ers’ leading rusher last weekend, which tells you all you need to know about what was going on with the rushing game. That was a huge win for the 49ers because it showed that even if the running game isn’t working, Kaepernick is capable of pulling out a victory for the red and gold.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Carlos Rogers is most likely going to be out at Lambeau, and his backup, Eric Wright, pulled up lame at practice and is questionable to play. That means a copious amount of Perrish Cox, which means that the 49ers have developed a definite area of weakness over the past week. Luckily, the weather is going to be a significant factor tomorrow; cold stunts passing games, so hopefully the Niners missing two CBs should be mitigated somewhat by relying on the running game. If the Packers instead decide that they are going to pass it, it could be a disaster. Rogers and Wright usually covered the slot receivers in 2013, and on the Packers, that means that you’re going to be guarding Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson, two of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the best receivers on the Packers. Unless the 49ers rotate accordingly, it could be a long day for the defense.

                                                                                                               

3) Important Stat: Turnover Margin
In their 12 wins this year, the 49ers are averaging an over 2:1 turnover margin. In their 4 losses, they are averaging 2.5 offensive turnovers and 1.5 defensive turnovers. To the 49ers, protecting the ball and going after the opposition is the key to their success. They need to continue that on Sunday in order to move on and play the Panthers next week in Charlotte. That will be difficult on Sunday, as the Packers went seven games this season with one or fewer touchdowns. Turnovers will be extremely important to the 49ers’ success this weekend, and despite the Packers being stingy with the football, they actually gave up the rock twice in Week 1. While it’s a longshot for the 49ers to force multiple turnovers tomorrow, it isn’t outside the realm of reality.

The Niners have their work cut out for them against a Packers team that was missing several key pieces throughout the season & is stronger than their record indicates. Weather will also play a significant factor in what happens in Green Bay, and despite their natural climate, the 49ers are a “cold weather” team. Their success is built through the running game and defense, which are immensely “portable,” which, hopefully, means that the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be a massive task to overcome for them. I’m going with the homer pick here: Niners.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The AFC

The Bengals and Chargers square off on Wildcard Weekend Sunday; a rematch of their Week 13 skirmish wherein the Chargers fell to the Bengals 17-10. The Chargers hope for a very different result in their second matchup this season. They weren’t able to beat the Bengals in sunny San Diego, and with a potential for snow today in Cincinnati, the weather won’t be any better for the Chargers. Ultimately, the Bengals should run away with this one, but given what happened in the games yesterday, you can’t rule out the Chargers despite all signs pointing to a Bengals victory.

How the Chargers Win
1) Important Player: Keenan Allen

The upstart rookie has been a revelation to the beleaguered Chargers offense. He only received run because everybody in front of him on the depth chart suffered serious injuries. The third round pick out of Cal did not disappoint one bit. He stepped right into the starting lineup and started wowing people immediately. He will be the focus of the Bengals' secondary, and Philip Rivers will need to look his way often if the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. In their first matchup he went for 8 receptions for 106 yards. Throw a score on top of that and the Chargers may have pulled off the upset. The Chargers realize that their best receiver, and maybe best offensive weapon, needs to get force fed targets in order to move on to the next round.

2) Important Position Group: Safeties
The Bengals offense is pretty much built around deep bombs to A.J. Green. Green is a next-level talent and shutting him down will be vital to the Chargers if they want to take on divisional foes the Denver Broncos next weekend. The Safeties will be crucial to this process, as the Chargers Cornerbacks aren’t exceptional enough to stop Green on their own. In their loss earlier this year, Green went for 5 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. Not a massive day, but the theme for the Bengals in that game is they seemed to do just enough to win. The Chargers safeties will be vital in making sure Green doesn’t break free. They’ll likely roll coverage his way, or even bracket him to ensure he doesn’t go long uncovered.

3) Important Stat: Bengals Receptions (Non-AJ Green Category):

AJ Green is going to get his on Sunday. In order for the Chargers to pull off the victory, they have to concede that fact. They need to ensure that players like Andrew Hawkins and Marvin Jones don't have massive games. Green can't beat the Chargers all by himself, and in order to upset the Bengals, the defense will need to make sure that the other receivers don't have a field day while they try to focus on Green. If the Chargers manage to keep the non-AJ Green receivers down, they stand a chance of winning in Cincinnati. Given that they’ll be likely rolling coverage towards AJ Green, that means that the Cornerbacks will need to have a big day shutting down Hawkins and Jones to give the Chargers a fighting chance.

How the Bengals Win
1) Important Player: Andy “Good Andy” Dalton
I say “Good Andy” because Dalton is notoriously schizophrenic on the field. He’ll throw for a ton of touchdowns one week and will be physically incapable of throwing the ball to a Bengal player the next week. Bad Andy actually showed up during their last meeting; The Red Rifle managed only 190 yards passing on 23 attempts for a pick and a score. But, it was enough to beat the Chargers back in Week 13. The Chargers are playing much better than they were back then, so in order for the Bengals to come out ahead, Good Andy will need to show up on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
In order for Good Andy to show up, the Bengals offensive line will need to stand up to the Chargers pass rush. This will give Dalton time to bomb it out to AJ Green or Marvin Jones. In their last matchup, the highest rated players on the Bengals were three of their offensive lineman (according to profootballfocus.com). They’ll need to again make sure Dalton stays upright so that he can pick apart the Chargers’ secondary.

3) Important Stat: Points Scored
I’m not quite sure what it is, maybe Mom’s home cooking? The Bengals have been absolutely rolling at home, scoring a low of 34 points in their last four home games; this includes wins over the Colts, Browns, Jets, Vikings and Ravens. Their defense is superb, but the Bengals will live and die by their offensive production today, and their offensive production has been good near the friendly Ohio River. I know that “score a ton of points” isn’t exactly insightful, but the Bengals have been doing it on a completely different level within Ohio (Their 6-17 loss to the Browns not withstanding) and they’ll need to continue that roll to defeat the Chargers for the right to move on and face the Patriots.

The Chargers basically stole a win from the Chiefs last week, who were resting 20 of 22 starters in preparation for their matchup against the Colts yesterday. That didn’t work out so well for the Colts, as they collapsed spectacularly, allowing for the Colts to mount an all-time comeback win. I think that the Bengals will pull this one out on the back of “Good Andy” bombing it out to AJ Green, but I am beyond guessing scores. I didn’t exactly get that crazy Colts-Chiefs game even close. I expected defense, I got a shootout. I’ll just make my pick: Bengals. The Chargers' last loss was against Cincinnati, and they'll replicate the effort.