Love to the Kings? Hate for the Kings!

The Kings have announced that they are willing to throw their hat into the Kevin Love Sweepstakes, and that they are willing to do it with no promise that Love will re-sign with the squad after the 2014-15 season. There’s already quite a bit of discussion on this across a ton of platforms. Sactown Royalty weighed in in favor of the Kings trading for Love. I, however, don’t think that this is the best move for the Kings. I actually don’t like it for a lot of reasons, but we’ll go through them individually.

           The Haul
Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA. According to ESPN’s PER (player efficiency rating) and EWA (estimated wins added), Love was third in the NBA behind a couple guys playing in the Western & Eastern Conference Finals (Kevin Durant & LeBron James, respectively). A player of this caliber doesn’t come up for trade very often. The last, biggest name big man that was traded was Chris Bosh in his sign & trade in 2010. Bosh was traded for two first-round picks from the Raptors to the Heat. We can start with that as a guideline for a likely package for Kevin Love.

First off, Kevin Love is better than Chris Bosh was. He is one of the best rebounding, shooting and passing big men in the league. Chris Bosh is no slouch but Kevin Love is eerily reminiscent of an extremly souped-up version of a former Kings’ big man in Brad Miller. That means it is likely that his price tag would be higher than Chris Bosh’s two first-rounders.

The second thing to consider with that deal is that Love is unlikely to come over in a sign and trade; the Kings already made it clear that they will trade for him without this stipulation. Given that Love is primed to be the most sought-after free agent of 2015. He can get a max-contract wherever he goes; he would be foolish to do a sign & trade before being able to gauge his market in 2015. That, to me, would lower the potential asking price for Kevin Love.

The third consideration for the haul would be that the Kings are straight up not very good. The Heat were primed to become World Champs two out of the three years Bosh was there (and counting); the Kings’ first round pick is likely to be much more valuable than the two the Heat gave up for Bosh. I, and I assume Pete D’Allesandro agrees, don’t think that a potential one-year rental of Kevin Love is worth a first-round pick in two drafts.

Where does that leave us? The 2014 #8 pick, which the Kings have already basically committed to trading, probably a second rounder this year or next and a player. But who? You have to look at who is available for the Kings to trade that is worth it for the Timberwolves. Rudy Gay? Ben McLemore? Sign & trade for Isaiah Thomas? Jason Thompson’s big contract (please please please)? DeMarcus Cousins is off the table. I would hang up immediately if I was PDA and the Wolves posited that trade. The Wolves aren’t bringing back Derrick Williams when they traded him for loose change.

Gay’s contract is too huge, though it matches up well for a rental as it’s a one-year player option. I doubt the Timberwolves would move the last year of Kevin Love for the last year of Rudy Gay, especially since the Kings would try to “sweeten” the deal with Jason Thompson as well. This trade would leave Sacramento, again, with a massive black hole at Small Forward. Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t work well from Minnesota’s perspective, unless the Wolves are ready to pull the plug on the Ricky Rubio Experiment. That leaves us with Ben McLemore. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but ended on a strong note, dropping a career-high 31 points on 20 shots. Certainly, the last time we saw McLemore he was quite impressive. His rookie season had a great load of ups & downs, but I personally think his career will be more ups than anything else.

Are the Kings willing to part with all that for a rental? Especially when the team needs a lot more to be competitive. If Love commits to a multi-year deal with Sacramento, you can bet that second becomes another first and potentially another player. All to land someone who isn’t really a fit with the Kings roster.

      The Fit
There’s a relatively new statistic called “Usage,” and I won’t bore you with how it’s calculated. In short, however, it basically explains how much a player “uses” his time on the court. Basically, who dominates the ball on offense. This can be skewed for players who don’t play a ton while dominating the ball when the come in—Jimmer Fredette is one of the league leaders for 2013-14. It’s basically a question of who needs to have the ball in their hands. Kevin Love was ninth last year among players with at least 25 minutes per game. That’s not a huge deal, he was the centerpiece of the Timberwolves. He’s mashed in between Kyrie Irving and John Wall.

Here’s the problem: DeMarcus Cousins is third, Isaiah Thomas is eighteenth and Rudy Gay is twenty-fourth on that list (at least 25 MPG). Those three guys all averaged over 20 PPG and accounted for over 3000 of the team’s ~6500 shots taken last season (the actual numbers come out to just about 48%). Trying to throw Kevin Love into the mix adds another quality name and a quality talent, but is an extremely inefficient use of resources.

In addition to the usage argument, Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay & DeMarcus Cousins all get knocked for their terrible defense. Guess who else gets knocked for his terrible defense? Kevin Love. The Kings may try to outscore and outshoot the opposing team, but if the top four guys on your squad play next to no defense? That’s a recipe for absolute disaster.

      The Inflexibility
So the Kings end up with Kevin Love. 2014 comes and goes and they narrowly miss the playoffs. They get nothing out of it, as the TWolves have at least the Kings 2014 pick (#8), the 2013 pick (Ben McLemore) and potentially their remaining 2011 pick (Isaiah Thomas) and the 2015 pick. How do we spend next offseason? Waiting to see if Love resigns with us. Sacramento also may have a big bill coming for Rudy Gay (albeit, given the new CBA, probably smaller than what the Kings already pay him). Kevin Love will get a max contract. DeMarcus Cousins already has a max contract. Max contracts only really work when you can surround them with under market value players (like the Heat have) and young/cheap contracts.

The Kings would trade almost all of their young players (excepting Ray McCallum) to obtain Kevin Love. So the Kings end up with Kevin Love and no real way to fill in around him.  This is a terrible idea for the Kings’ future to bring in a player that needs the ball as much or more than three players already on the team.

So what, then? The Kings don’t bring in Kevin Love. How do they get better? Well, by not trying to bring in just big names. Bring in a couple defensive stalwarts, one on the wing and one on the block and build from there. Bringing in Kevin Love would make a huge splash and would placate the less-informed fanbase, but it would be a disastrous turn of events for the fledgling ownership group.

On the 49ers' Draft Priorities

Who will get the red #1 jersey this year? Chances are, it will be another defensive back.

The first round of the NFL draft will be over just around 24 hours from now. This is touted as one of the deepest and most talented drafts in a long while. Just today, I listened to Todd McShay and Mel “Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd” Kiper argue about whether 5 or 8 of the players in this draft are better than any given player in last year’s draft. With the 49ers having a lot of big contracts coming up, this draft and the cost-controlled players that come out of it could be make-or-break for the squad in the next few years. With six picks in the top-100, the Niners have the firepower to basically pick and choose where they want to get who they want. Here's, in my opinion, their biggest priorities, in descending order.

1. Cornerback – With the mass exodus of 49ers DBs (Donte Whitner is a Brown and Tarrell Brown & Carlos Rogers are Raiders), the 49ers are left with a massive hole in their secondary. They plugged the Whitner vacancy with free agent signing Antoine Bethea (more on that later). The Niners currently have Tramaine Brock, Chris Culliver (who didn’t play in 2013 and has had off-field issues), 2014 Harbaugh Reclamation Project (Chris Cook), Eric Wright, Perrish Cox (who is mostly special teams), Darryl Morris (who is all special teams) and something called a Dax Swanson.
   
   It’s bleak for the Niners at Cornerback. Luckily Brock came on big last year and Culliver was a starting corner before his offseason injury before last season. There is some hope there. Ideally, however, Eric Wright and Cook battle to be your fourth CB and Cox, Morris & Swanson never see the field.
   
   Ideally, and for completely different reasons, Perrish Cox doesn’t even make the team this year.
   
   
2. Wide Receiver – To anyone who watched the team struggle to fart out a passing game without Michael Crabtree last year, this is a no-brainer. While Quinton Patton’s return will definitely bolster the corps, I would definitely expect the Niners to have a CB and a WR before the first two rounds are done (as an aside, I fully expect them to package a second and a third together at least once to move up to have two picks between 30 and 45). This is the right draft to need a WR, as numerous in this draft are projected to be productive NFL players. To prevent the squad from crashing and burning on offense if there is an injury, they will need to add another wide receiver. Given that the Niners’ best deep threat is TE Vernon Davis, you would expect them to add a burner here.
   
   Add to the mix that the 49ers may not have Crabtree’s services in 2015, and the front office’s always forward-looking strategy, it’s basically a no-brainer that the Niners are going to walk away from day two (or maybe even day one) with a WR.
   
   In writing this, I literally forgot the Niners resigned Brandon Lloyd and still had Jon Baldwin. I would be shocked if Baldwin was active for more than a handful of games (pending injuries). Lloyd wasn’t even in the league last year, so I can’t really expect much from him.
   
   
3. Outside Linebacker – Behind Ahmad Brooks, who would be touted as one of the best defensive players on any other squad (but who is overshadowed by the entire rest of the LB corps), the Niners have nothing but question marks at the OLB position. Aldon Smith is an extremely talented head case who is struggling mightily with substance abuse problems (which will likely lead to a hefty suspension thanks to an incident in LAX last month). Behind him is Dan Skuta, who played well last year when called upon, but is mostly a special teams ace & second-year LB Corey Lemonier. I liked Lemonier last year coming out of Auburn, but he didn’t contribute a ton last year (a safety, a sack, 4 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 15 tackles). Finally, according to CBSSports.com, the Niners still have Darius Fleming. I was a big fan of Fleming when he was drafted, but all the poor guy does is tear his ACL.
   
   
4. Offensive Line – But Jeff, you say, the offensive line is arguably the strongest unit on the 49ers! Was arguably the strongest, and may be quickly falling apart. The 49ers allowed Jon Goodwin to retire by not returning his phone calls, and are turning to Joe Looney, Daniel Kilgore or whoever they end up getting in the middle rounds this year. Also of concern for the 49ers’ offensive line is the future of Left Guard Mike Iupati. He, like the aforementioned Michael Crabtree and QB Colin Kaepernick, are all in the final year of their rookie deals, and all are priority resigns.
   
   I don’t have faith that Iupati will be back in the red and gold in 2015. By tying up cash in Antoine Bethea and trading for the troubled Jonathon Martin, it shows that the 49ers’ front office has already partially moved on from the massive mauler. You want to get as many darts as possible to get one to hit; I fully expect Baalke to throw one at a Guard or Center, since if one works out, Looney & Kilgore could possibly fill the other.
   
   Offensive lines only get better with consistency and practice, so getting an offensive lineman this year to potentially start next year would be a good call.
   
   
5. Inside Linebacker – Right now, the Niners will likely only have All-Pro Linebacker NaVorro Bowman for about half the season as he is currently recovering from, and I believe this is the technical, medical term, “a destroyed knee.” Right now the Niners are set to start one of either Michael Wilhoite or Nick Moody next to Patrick Willis for about half the season. Much like with outside linebacker, the lack of depth at the inside linebacker positions could cause problems for the Niners if they don’t address it in the draft.
   
   
6. Defensive End – There’s no way around it: Justin Smith is an old man. He’ll be 35 before the bye & while his play seems to defy aging, this may well be the cowboy’s last ride. While the Niners are more than set at the other DE position with Ray McDonald, who is in the “awesome defensive player overshadowed by his peers” club with Ahmad Brooks, they’ll need to get some depth, and fast. They’re hoping that Smith’s replacement is already on the squad in the form of Tank Carradine. Behind Carradine, however, is Tony Jerod-Eddie, who is better suited as an interior defensive lineman and a “beautiful man” who is still learning the game in Lawrence Okoye. The Niners may end up with another D-End in this draft, given their litany of picks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed on the position all together.
   
   
7. Defensive Tackle – Tony Jerod-Eddie is promising, and Glenn Dorsey showed that he could have renewed life after busting out of the Chiefs system. Demarcus Dobbs filled in nicely last year, but he is better suited as a backup lineman. Starting DT Ian Williams will make his return from a broken ankle suffered from a cheap hit cutback block Week Two in Seattle. It’s unknown how well he can do, but the Niners can probably run through 2014 with their stable of DTs.
   
   
8. Quarterback – The Niners have Blaine Gabbert. ‘Nuff Said. They’re set. Moving on.
   
   Oh wait, Blaine Gabbert sucks? Whoa there, motherf… Okay, well let’s try this again.
   
   Colin Kaepernick wants big money, and the Niners want to give him big money, but not as big. I fully expect Kaepernick and the Niners to work something out next off-season, given that the cap is expected to skyrocket. Out of the big three names that are expected to get paid next year, I fully expect Kaepernick to be the highest priority. I put QB above the next few positions because the Niners desperately need to groom a backup/contingency plan in case Kaepernick bolts for greener pastures. Gabbert is nothing but a stop-gap and McBLT may never see an NFL field.
   
   If only we still had B.J. Daniels…
   
   
9. Safety – Antoine Bethea signed a multi-year deal this off-season, and Eric Reid is coming off a Pro Bowl season, and the Niners are very much hoping that Bethea’s last year in Indy was a fluke. Hopefully Bethea can return to his pre-2013 form. He rated very highly on PFF for his career, except for last year. Chances are, a bounce back is in order. Harbaugh & Co. are definitely banking on that in 2014. If that isn’t the case, this is likely a position to be addressed in 2015. The Niners lack depth at Safety, but this is a problem that most teams have.
   
   
10. Tight End – Vernon Davis is one of the best Tight Ends in the league, and is one of the most important parts of the team. He’s getting up there in age, but he is a freak athlete and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Last year’s second-round pick, Vance McDonald, has had a year to grow and flourish in this offense. Garrett Celek & Derrick Carrier are perfectly suitable third and fourth Tight Ends. The Niners will be fine at this position, but may look to draft a Tight End in 2015 or 2016, depending on how McDonald develops. They basically do not need to draft a Tight End this year, nor the #11 position.
    
    
11. Running Back – If you include Fullback Bruce Miller as a goal-line back, the 49ers have a complete stable of backs. It feels like they have every RB archetype, too. The solid, aging veteran (Frank Gore), the reliable backup (Kendall Hunter), the heir apparent to the throne (Marcus Lattimore) and the change of pace/scatback/Darren Sproles type (LaMichael James). They lost Anthony Dixon to Buffalo in free agency, so they may be looking to add another big body back with Miller. The thing about big, beefy RBs who can fall forward for a few yards is that they are a dime a dozen in the NFL. This should be the 49ers’ lowest priority except Special Teams.
    
    
12. Special Teamers – Don’t draft a special teamer, especially when you have Andy Lee & Phil Dawson.

Well there you have it. I’m not going to feign to know which players the Niners should be targeting at which positions. This is mostly a fool’s errand, given that every team looks at every player differently. Double so for a front office run by Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.

Whatever happens this weekend, remember one thing. In Harbaalke We Trust.