The Kings have announced that they are willing to throw
their hat into the Kevin Love Sweepstakes, and that they are willing to do it
with no promise that Love will re-sign with the squad after the 2014-15 season.
There’s already quite a bit of discussion on this across a ton of platforms.
Sactown Royalty weighed in in favor of the Kings trading for Love. I, however,
don’t think that this is the best move for the Kings. I actually don’t like it
for a lot of reasons, but we’ll go
through them individually.
The Haul
Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA. According to ESPN’s PER (player efficiency rating) and EWA (estimated wins added), Love was third in the NBA behind a couple guys playing in the Western & Eastern Conference Finals (Kevin Durant & LeBron James, respectively). A player of this caliber doesn’t come up for trade very often. The last, biggest name big man that was traded was Chris Bosh in his sign & trade in 2010. Bosh was traded for two first-round picks from the Raptors to the Heat. We can start with that as a guideline for a likely package for Kevin Love.
First off, Kevin Love is better than Chris Bosh was. He is one of the best rebounding, shooting and passing big men in the league. Chris Bosh is no slouch but Kevin Love is eerily reminiscent of an extremly souped-up version of a former Kings’ big man in Brad Miller. That means it is likely that his price tag would be higher than Chris Bosh’s two first-rounders.
The second thing to consider with that deal is that Love is unlikely to come over in a sign and trade; the Kings already made it clear that they will trade for him without this stipulation. Given that Love is primed to be the most sought-after free agent of 2015. He can get a max-contract wherever he goes; he would be foolish to do a sign & trade before being able to gauge his market in 2015. That, to me, would lower the potential asking price for Kevin Love.
The third consideration for the haul would be that the Kings are straight up not very good. The Heat were primed to become World Champs two out of the three years Bosh was there (and counting); the Kings’ first round pick is likely to be much more valuable than the two the Heat gave up for Bosh. I, and I assume Pete D’Allesandro agrees, don’t think that a potential one-year rental of Kevin Love is worth a first-round pick in two drafts.
Where does that leave us? The 2014 #8 pick, which the Kings have already basically committed to trading, probably a second rounder this year or next and a player. But who? You have to look at who is available for the Kings to trade that is worth it for the Timberwolves. Rudy Gay? Ben McLemore? Sign & trade for Isaiah Thomas? Jason Thompson’s big contract (please please please)? DeMarcus Cousins is off the table. I would hang up immediately if I was PDA and the Wolves posited that trade. The Wolves aren’t bringing back Derrick Williams when they traded him for loose change.
Gay’s contract is too huge, though it matches up well for a rental as it’s a one-year player option. I doubt the Timberwolves would move the last year of Kevin Love for the last year of Rudy Gay, especially since the Kings would try to “sweeten” the deal with Jason Thompson as well. This trade would leave Sacramento, again, with a massive black hole at Small Forward. Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t work well from Minnesota’s perspective, unless the Wolves are ready to pull the plug on the Ricky Rubio Experiment. That leaves us with Ben McLemore. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but ended on a strong note, dropping a career-high 31 points on 20 shots. Certainly, the last time we saw McLemore he was quite impressive. His rookie season had a great load of ups & downs, but I personally think his career will be more ups than anything else.
Are the Kings willing to part with all that for a rental? Especially when the team needs a lot more to be competitive. If Love commits to a multi-year deal with Sacramento, you can bet that second becomes another first and potentially another player. All to land someone who isn’t really a fit with the Kings roster.
Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA. According to ESPN’s PER (player efficiency rating) and EWA (estimated wins added), Love was third in the NBA behind a couple guys playing in the Western & Eastern Conference Finals (Kevin Durant & LeBron James, respectively). A player of this caliber doesn’t come up for trade very often. The last, biggest name big man that was traded was Chris Bosh in his sign & trade in 2010. Bosh was traded for two first-round picks from the Raptors to the Heat. We can start with that as a guideline for a likely package for Kevin Love.
First off, Kevin Love is better than Chris Bosh was. He is one of the best rebounding, shooting and passing big men in the league. Chris Bosh is no slouch but Kevin Love is eerily reminiscent of an extremly souped-up version of a former Kings’ big man in Brad Miller. That means it is likely that his price tag would be higher than Chris Bosh’s two first-rounders.
The second thing to consider with that deal is that Love is unlikely to come over in a sign and trade; the Kings already made it clear that they will trade for him without this stipulation. Given that Love is primed to be the most sought-after free agent of 2015. He can get a max-contract wherever he goes; he would be foolish to do a sign & trade before being able to gauge his market in 2015. That, to me, would lower the potential asking price for Kevin Love.
The third consideration for the haul would be that the Kings are straight up not very good. The Heat were primed to become World Champs two out of the three years Bosh was there (and counting); the Kings’ first round pick is likely to be much more valuable than the two the Heat gave up for Bosh. I, and I assume Pete D’Allesandro agrees, don’t think that a potential one-year rental of Kevin Love is worth a first-round pick in two drafts.
Where does that leave us? The 2014 #8 pick, which the Kings have already basically committed to trading, probably a second rounder this year or next and a player. But who? You have to look at who is available for the Kings to trade that is worth it for the Timberwolves. Rudy Gay? Ben McLemore? Sign & trade for Isaiah Thomas? Jason Thompson’s big contract (please please please)? DeMarcus Cousins is off the table. I would hang up immediately if I was PDA and the Wolves posited that trade. The Wolves aren’t bringing back Derrick Williams when they traded him for loose change.
Gay’s contract is too huge, though it matches up well for a rental as it’s a one-year player option. I doubt the Timberwolves would move the last year of Kevin Love for the last year of Rudy Gay, especially since the Kings would try to “sweeten” the deal with Jason Thompson as well. This trade would leave Sacramento, again, with a massive black hole at Small Forward. Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t work well from Minnesota’s perspective, unless the Wolves are ready to pull the plug on the Ricky Rubio Experiment. That leaves us with Ben McLemore. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but ended on a strong note, dropping a career-high 31 points on 20 shots. Certainly, the last time we saw McLemore he was quite impressive. His rookie season had a great load of ups & downs, but I personally think his career will be more ups than anything else.
Are the Kings willing to part with all that for a rental? Especially when the team needs a lot more to be competitive. If Love commits to a multi-year deal with Sacramento, you can bet that second becomes another first and potentially another player. All to land someone who isn’t really a fit with the Kings roster.
The Fit
There’s a relatively new statistic called “Usage,” and I won’t bore you with how it’s calculated. In short, however, it basically explains how much a player “uses” his time on the court. Basically, who dominates the ball on offense. This can be skewed for players who don’t play a ton while dominating the ball when the come in—Jimmer Fredette is one of the league leaders for 2013-14. It’s basically a question of who needs to have the ball in their hands. Kevin Love was ninth last year among players with at least 25 minutes per game. That’s not a huge deal, he was the centerpiece of the Timberwolves. He’s mashed in between Kyrie Irving and John Wall.
Here’s the problem: DeMarcus Cousins is third, Isaiah Thomas is eighteenth and Rudy Gay is twenty-fourth on that list (at least 25 MPG). Those three guys all averaged over 20 PPG and accounted for over 3000 of the team’s ~6500 shots taken last season (the actual numbers come out to just about 48%). Trying to throw Kevin Love into the mix adds another quality name and a quality talent, but is an extremely inefficient use of resources.
In addition to the usage argument, Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay & DeMarcus Cousins all get knocked for their terrible defense. Guess who else gets knocked for his terrible defense? Kevin Love. The Kings may try to outscore and outshoot the opposing team, but if the top four guys on your squad play next to no defense? That’s a recipe for absolute disaster.
There’s a relatively new statistic called “Usage,” and I won’t bore you with how it’s calculated. In short, however, it basically explains how much a player “uses” his time on the court. Basically, who dominates the ball on offense. This can be skewed for players who don’t play a ton while dominating the ball when the come in—Jimmer Fredette is one of the league leaders for 2013-14. It’s basically a question of who needs to have the ball in their hands. Kevin Love was ninth last year among players with at least 25 minutes per game. That’s not a huge deal, he was the centerpiece of the Timberwolves. He’s mashed in between Kyrie Irving and John Wall.
Here’s the problem: DeMarcus Cousins is third, Isaiah Thomas is eighteenth and Rudy Gay is twenty-fourth on that list (at least 25 MPG). Those three guys all averaged over 20 PPG and accounted for over 3000 of the team’s ~6500 shots taken last season (the actual numbers come out to just about 48%). Trying to throw Kevin Love into the mix adds another quality name and a quality talent, but is an extremely inefficient use of resources.
In addition to the usage argument, Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay & DeMarcus Cousins all get knocked for their terrible defense. Guess who else gets knocked for his terrible defense? Kevin Love. The Kings may try to outscore and outshoot the opposing team, but if the top four guys on your squad play next to no defense? That’s a recipe for absolute disaster.
The Inflexibility
So the Kings end up with Kevin Love. 2014 comes and goes and they narrowly miss the playoffs. They get nothing out of it, as the TWolves have at least the Kings 2014 pick (#8), the 2013 pick (Ben McLemore) and potentially their remaining 2011 pick (Isaiah Thomas) and the 2015 pick. How do we spend next offseason? Waiting to see if Love resigns with us. Sacramento also may have a big bill coming for Rudy Gay (albeit, given the new CBA, probably smaller than what the Kings already pay him). Kevin Love will get a max contract. DeMarcus Cousins already has a max contract. Max contracts only really work when you can surround them with under market value players (like the Heat have) and young/cheap contracts.
The Kings would trade almost all of their young players (excepting Ray McCallum) to obtain Kevin Love. So the Kings end up with Kevin Love and no real way to fill in around him. This is a terrible idea for the Kings’ future to bring in a player that needs the ball as much or more than three players already on the team.
So the Kings end up with Kevin Love. 2014 comes and goes and they narrowly miss the playoffs. They get nothing out of it, as the TWolves have at least the Kings 2014 pick (#8), the 2013 pick (Ben McLemore) and potentially their remaining 2011 pick (Isaiah Thomas) and the 2015 pick. How do we spend next offseason? Waiting to see if Love resigns with us. Sacramento also may have a big bill coming for Rudy Gay (albeit, given the new CBA, probably smaller than what the Kings already pay him). Kevin Love will get a max contract. DeMarcus Cousins already has a max contract. Max contracts only really work when you can surround them with under market value players (like the Heat have) and young/cheap contracts.
The Kings would trade almost all of their young players (excepting Ray McCallum) to obtain Kevin Love. So the Kings end up with Kevin Love and no real way to fill in around him. This is a terrible idea for the Kings’ future to bring in a player that needs the ball as much or more than three players already on the team.
So what, then? The Kings don’t bring in Kevin Love. How do
they get better? Well, by not trying to bring in just big names. Bring in a
couple defensive stalwarts, one on the wing and one on the block and build from
there. Bringing in Kevin Love would make a huge splash and would placate the
less-informed fanbase, but it would be a disastrous turn of events for the
fledgling ownership group.
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