Michael Crabtree’s Injury Fallout

Yes, on a day where the Battle of the Bay and the Sharks lose in the Stanley Cup playoffs, I’m making three posts about a sport that won’t be relevant for another 99 days. Last week, the 49ers’ young, divisive and diva-esque Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon. He has already had successful surgery; Head Coach Jim Harbaugh (very optimistically) hopes to have Crabtree back for the stretch run and the playoffs. Some people point at Terrell Suggs and his return from Achilles tear last season. However, Suggs’ gameday assignments mean he doesn’t have the same strain on his Achilles as Crabtree. As a pass rusher, Suggs moved essentially in a straight line and was not responsible for the same cutting and change-of-direction motion Crabtree would be responsible for as a Wide Receiver.

Personally, I think Crabtree is done for the year. The 49ers are a franchise that definitely take the long-view with their players. AJ Jenkins was drafted and essentially red-shirted last year; they believed in his development rather than trying to force him to contribute right away. In fact, last year only one 49ers rookie, LaMichael James, made any sort of impact on the roster. This was by design. The other rookies were either hurt or not ready. James was only thrust onto the field via injury to Kendall Hunter. While Crabtree could possibly return, I believe that Harbaalke will determine that he should not return, as it is in the best interest of both Crabtree and the 49ers organization to have him wait.

What next, then? How do the 49ers adapt, who benefits, who takes a step back?

Beneficiaries: Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, The Running Game
Over the past decade, the 49ers’ offense has had essentially one hallmark: the run. With Colin Kaepernick’s coming out party, there was a renewed interest in the passing game. Coming into this year, the 49ers have a lot of question mark at receivers. The Boldin trade makes the 49ers front office look like bona fide geniuses, as headed into the season, “Kyle Williams, WR1,” would have dumped the 49ers from Super Bowl contenders to fringy playoff candidates. Truthfully, the Niners have a very deep core of players: Anquan Boldin could be a #1 receiver on some teams, and Kyle Williams, AJ Jenkins, Ricardo Lockette, Mario Manningham and Quentin Patton would be serviceable #2-4 players in most systems. The only problem is that that entire group is a mix of unproven young guns and guys with one working knee. While these young guys will definitely benefit, there isn’t one person who has arisen yet to definitively benefit among that group. The passes have to go somewhere, so there is no reason why they should not go to Vernon Davis’s solid hands or the suddenly old-man-hands of Anquan Boldin.

The running game will definitely benefit, as the 49ers were approaching this season with an eye towards improved balance between run and pass. With the continued solid play of Frank Gore, the dynamic playmaking of LaMichael James and the return of Kendall Hunter, the 49ers have a beast of a monster at running back to take full advantage of this situation.

Losers: Colin Kaepernick, Greg Roman
Without Crabtree, Kaepernick is missing a massive release valve and safety blanket. After taking over as full-time QB last season, Kaepernick had a love-affair with Crabtree, targeting him most and reaping the benefits of throwing it up to one of the better young WRs in the game. This year, the safety blanket role is likely to be held by some combination of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. There likely won’t be the same massive YAC by these two as there was by Crabtree. He did a ton for Kaepernick last year and his loss will be sorely missed.

The second big loser in this is Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman. Roman commanded one of the most creative offenses in the NFL last year, but his creativity was greatly predicated on the playmaking skills of Crabtree. With a whole different set of skills at WR1, Roman will need to learn to adapt his playcalling scheme to match the talent on the field. The 49ers offense will likely not live up to the pre-season hype thrust upon him prior to the Crabtree injury; as such, it is likely that Roman will be (unduly) blamed and his future career in the NFL could be hampered.

 

Michael Crabtree will be sorely missed by the 49ers franchise. He was their #1 receiver and in a team filled to the brim with All-Pro talent, he had the most promising of futures. Early reports indicate that Crabtree should be back around November or December of this year, but I would exercise caution in brining back Crabtree. A mis-cut or mis-step on a fully-torn Achiless could have disastrous effects on the long-term prognosis for Crabtree’s career.  As previously stated, however, I firmly believe that Harbaugh and Baalke are smarter than this and have several contingency plans in place to ensure the 49ers are contenders this year and beyond.

The Crabtree injury will definitely change the overall outlook, projection and complexion of the 2103 49ers. They are losing their #1 receiver; a #1 receiver who was set to breakout in a newly pass-focused system.  While this will definitely be a factor, I truly believe that this will not derail the 49ers season.

 

2014 and beyond—Harbaalke has made it a habit of having players believe in them. In the long-term viability of the franchise, this may have been a good scenario. If Crabtree doesn’t come back this season (and I believe he won’t; the team won’t rush a player back at risk of re-injury), then the 49ers have to sit down and determine Crabtree’s value to resign him. He has been on a definite uptick and the franchise could save some money by rolling the dice and taking the risk now on future injury. Personally, this is the best option for them at Wide Receiver in the near future.

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Something Awful Slow Mock—May 2013, Pick Three

I’ve been putting down some things regarding my draft thought process in a slow mock that I’m currently doing as a part of the Something Awful forums. My strategy with this is very similar to how I approach most of my Fantasy Football drafts; RB-RB, then fill in the rest. I pulled this off with the first two picks, going with Doug Martin and Reggie Bush with my first two picks. I was pleased with them, I believe they are both solid picks.

When I was making the Bush pick, I had a Wide Receiver queued up mentally that I would be targeting with the third pick of round three. As I noted there, there were many WR available that I would be happy to have on my team (Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Andre Johnson), but only one WR that I truly wanted on my team at that spot:

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Don’t get me wrong, I hope that Percy has a terrible season, as a 49ers fan. As a football fan and a fantasy football player, I am giddy and excited by the opportunity that Lamborghini Percy is going to have this year in the Seattle offense. He gives them an additional element (a real wide receiver, no offense, Golden Tate) and a playmaker who can line up all over the place. Harvin gets an additional bump in leagues with return yards and TDs, like my main Sacramento Boys league (Harvin went for $50 last year, to me, in that league). The rest of this post has the disclaimer that I have a big fat man crush on Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin has a reputation for being an oft-injured player, one who you can’t depend on to play at least 14 games. Throw out last season and the freak injury that led to an IR stint (that had more to do with his feud with the coaching staff than any actual injury). Go look at his games played. Go ahead. I’ll wait here.

15, 14, 16 and 9 games played. That’s right, throw out last year’s injury and Harvin has been one of the more dependable players in the league since 2009. Harvin has a reputation for being an oft-injured player due to his migraine issues that led him to be questionable pretty much weekly since he came into the league.

Harvin has averaged almost 1,000 yards per scrimmage per year, including his injury-shortened 2012 campaign. A lot of the time, the Vikings offense was “give it to Adrian Peterson and stand around” then “give it to Percy Harvin and stand around.” Harvin made Christian Ponder, QB in name only, look good last year. Harvin had 62 receptions for 677 yards, for a modest 10.9 yards per catch, which puts him in the same realm as luminaries such as Danny Woodhead and Josh Morgan. Why do I have such a mancrush on Harvin? Well, no two passes are built alike.

Last year, Percy Harvin’s average catch point was 2.71 yards past the line of scrimmage. In the top 40 WRs for YAC (yards after catch), this was the lowest yards past past scrimmage. That means that for Harvin to get his 10.9 yards per catch, he had to do A LOT of work. Over 75% of his receiving yards came after he had already caught the ball. This means that Harvin was doing most of the work. This was by far the highest yards after catch percentage for any wide receiver. Second was Andrew Hawkins at about 66%. For reference, Victor Cruz, YAC poster boy, had only about 30% of his yards after the catch. These calculations were mine from data for YAC I received off ESPN.com

What does this mean for Harvin in 2013? Well, given the tricky nature of the Seahawks’ offense, I think it means big things for Harvin in 2013. I honestly think that Harvin can launch his way into the top 5 fantasy WR discussion. The Seahawks offense starts with versatile Russell Wilson, whose dual threat run/pass ability gives opposing defenses fits. Add power runner Marshawn Lynch and you already have a great start for a versatile, dangerous offense. The Seahawks rode that offense and a top-3 defense into the playoffs last year. Now they’re adding, in my opinion, the most explosive, versatile offensive threat in Percy Harvin. This team will be dangerous, and Harvin will be a big piece of that.

Harvin will be given every opportunity to succeed in 2013, and the name of the game for fantasy is finding the combination of opportunity and talent. Harvin has plenty of talent, and will be given plenty of opportunity in 2013. He, with Beast Mode and Wilson are the future of the Seahawks offense, and it will be a dangerous offense.

In lieu of making this 100% about Percy Harvin, I will talk a bit about the other players I could have taken there. Harvin was essentially an auto-draft for me, so I don’t want to say I considered these players per se, but a different person may have drafted them here.

Tom Brady, QB, New England
I don’t really trust Brady this year, and my aversion for drafting a quarterback early played itself out here. Brady, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton would all have been decent picks in the third round for some people, and all were available. The issue is I don’t know how much I trust Brady this year. Aaron Hernandez can’t stay on the field, Wes Welker has become Danny Amendola, who can’t stay on the field and Rob Gronkowski can’t stay on the field. He has a ton of talent around him, but who knows how often they can put it all together. I would consider Brady a late-third/early-fourth value pick.

Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans
Sproles is the prototypical player whose value skyrockets in a PPR. In a standard format, he is a low-end RB2 prospect, and the more points per reception, his value boosts. In a half-PPR league like this one, he ends up around 15-16 overall. He is one of the players I would consider going RB-RB-RB for, due to the shallowness of the position and the depth at WR, TE and QB.

Now that I have my first wide receiver, giving me Harvin as a dynamic WR1, I must wait about 20 picks until my 4th round pick. I am trying to go 2 RB, 2 WR and a WR/RB depending on talent in my first five picks. The 4th and 5th round ADP shows that there are a ton of good to great WR and good RB still available to me.

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Something Awful Slow Mock–May 2013, Pick Two

If you read my last post, you know that I am currently drafting in a “slow mock draft.” While most mock drafts are fast and furious, giving owners less than 5 minutes to pick their next pick, slow drafts give players time to think through options. Picks are usually due within 24 hours, but are generally turned in much faster than that. Drafts completed this way are usually mock drafts. Since the season is months away, there is no hurry for this draft to be finished. As with all slow drafts, circumstances have changed. The person who drafted 49ers WR Michael Crabtree suddenly looks very silly. I took advantage of the circumstances by picking up Vernon Davis earlier than I would have if this draft had been completed in one day. The picks are fluid with circumstances.

I had the third overall pick in the first round, giving me the tenth pick in round two, 22nd overall. My general strategy is to go RB-RB with my first two picks, depending on what talent falls to me. If I can get Calvin Johnson 22nd overall, I’ll take my luck with whatever RB gets back to me in the third round, for example. Reminder that this is a 12-team half-point-per-reception league. Before me in round two, the following players went:

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago
Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans
Stevan Ridley, RB, New England
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay
Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta

At the 22nd overall pick, I was looking at a few options, DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas; Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville; Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit and Drew Brees, QB.

There are pros and cons to each pick, and I was looking here at a running back, given my strategy. Drew Brees falling as far as he did could have been a boon to my team, but there is just way too much QB talent falling way too far. While I flirted with the idea of going after Brees and his annual bajillion yards and dozens of touchdowns, I felt like I would be doing myself a disservice. Because of that, I turned my attention to the three running backs available to me there.

DeMarco Murray
Murray showed a couple of years ago that he can be an explosive fantasy contributor when he is on the field. Taking over for an injured Felix Jones, Murray became the buzz of the fantasy world when, in his first time getting more than 15 touches, he went off for 253 yards and a touchdown against the Rams.  Last year, however, was a different story. Injuries kept Murray off the field, and when he was on the field, he wasn’t nearly as impressive.  He was wildly inconsistent, posting consecutive weeks of 44, 38, 24, 93 & 83 yards. The issue with Murray is also the Dallas offense, he only had 6 total rushing touchdowns in two years (23 games). Murray can be an explosive playmaker when healthy. The key term there is “when healthy.” Murray’s health and his inconsistency lead me to believe that while he could be great, I’m comfortable with him being great for someone else.

Maurice Jones-Drew
MJD has perennially been a top-5 running back and his fall is solely due to his injury issues from last season. Someone will be very happy with MJD manning their RB2 slot for them this year, or very upset they took the gamble on MJD. My philosophy with your first two picks is that you should not be taking gambles or flyers with these two picks. They should be the foundation of your team. While current reports are that MJD is going to be setup to return for training camp just in time, I fear what could happen in the next few months. Given, this draft is happening now, and a lot can happen (like him punching out a security guard) before the season starts. As time goes along, he could, and probably will, move up the draft board. The problem is that a draft in May is that one would be risk-averse, and MJD is the perfect example of this fact. He could be amazing, but I am not currently willing to take that risk.

Reggie Bush
Bush’s consideration here is an example of knowing your league’s rules when considering who should be drafted at what position. Reggie Bush, in a standard format, is likely a third-round pick. In the half-point PPR league format, he gets a boost. Bush in Miami and New Orleans benefited from this format, and I feel like Detroit will give him a massive boost in value. The Lions need to get their RB involved even more, and with nothing alongside Calvin Johnson. Detroit’s passing game is prolific, and Bush is likely to be Matthew Stafford’s safety blanket in the few instances that he can’t throw it into quadruple coverage to Megatron.  Reggie Bush doesn’t have the highest upside of the three, but he definitely has the highest floor.

So there you have it. There are three running backs available here to me that are considered to be among the smart choices at the position. While MJD and Murray show that they have massive upside, they both are also saddled with pretty significant question marks. Murray has shown tremendous talent but hasn’t really been able to stay on the field consistently, and MJD is coming off of a foot injury that ended his 2013 campaign.

In the end, I went with Reggie Bush, giving me a one-two RB punch of Doug Martin and Bush. I’ll be honest, the potential downside of MJD and/or Murray scared me too much to take them here. I would say that if either of them were available to me in the early third, I probably could have pulled the trigger. The only problem is that I just fear their significant downsides more than I have a ton of confidence in Bush’s upside. Having fulfilled my RB-RB startup goal for my first two picks, I turned my attention to another position in round three…

 

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Something Awful Slow Mock–May 2013, Pick One

I read a lot of the Something Awful forums, and recently on the fantasy sports subforum, I joined a 12-person slow mock draft for the 2013 Fantasy Football season. I think a good way to garner discussion is I will write a bit of a write up about my picks. I don’t know if this will be an exercise in futility or a great writing exercise. Either way, we’ll see where this takes us!

 

I had the third pick in the first round, and the first two picks went to script. First overall was Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings. Second pick was Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans.  The next pick was me at number three. There were three running backs that I was considering for this spot: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs; Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks & Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Picking at number three, with ADP and Foster already gone, I’m not exactly making a tough pick here.

 

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs:
There were tons of question marks surrounding Charles heading into last season, mostly stemming from Charles’s season-ending knee injury in 2011, which led to his draft stock falling. His stock falls no more.  Charles put up over 1500 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, and he will likely build on that in 2013. The Chiefs last season got away with a clean split in starts between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, who were able to combine for 8 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, meaning defenses could key in on Charles and attempt to shut down the running game. Enter the Walrus, Supergenius and the Fisherman.

Andy Reid was brought in as a replacement to Romeo Crennel, and his entrance will immediately pay dividends for Charles. Reid’s time in Philadelphia was marked by turning out elite fantasy options at running back (Brian Westbrook for ages, then LeSean McCoy). While I wouldn’t say that Westbrook & McCoy were system backs, Reid’s system leads to success for running backs in fantasy. This should boost Charles’s value.  Along with Reid came Alex Smith from San Francisco for up-to two second-round picks. Smith isn’t a world killer, but Alex Smith 2.0 is a smart, accurate passer who doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. His biggest talent is likely his ability to audible to the correct play, which we saw tons of in the last couple of years. This should take heat off Charles and may increase his value if Reid uses him as Smith’s release valve. The Chiefs used their first overall pick on Eric Fisher, an OT. It appears as though they will pair him with Branden Albert.

Behind a bolstered line, an offense that has churned out elite fantasy options for over a decade and Alex Smith 2.0, Charles is easily a top-five option for you.

 

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks:
I’m pretty high on Lynch here; he’s entering his prime in his age 27 season, and at a few years away from the running back cliff, he’s even a great option in keeper leagues in the top five. Lynch has put up 25 rushing/receiving touchdowns combined over the last two seasons, averaging 80 yards per game in 2011 and just about 100 yards per game in 2012.  He’s clearly an elite talent that has the ability to score points for your fantasy team in bunches. He does, however, come with some question marks.

The offense is moving away from him a bit. It’s strange to say with such an amazing option, but the Seahawks are building a versatile offense, what with the young quarterback Russell Wilson’s run/pass skills and the lightning in a bottle that is Percy Harvin. He may be a victim of circumstance, as the Seattle offense turns to other options, such as Harvin, in the red zone.  The Seahawks also used a high pick in Christine Michael; putting him alongside Lynch and Robert Turbin in the backfield. This isn’t a knock on Lynch at all, but fantasy is about talent vs. opportunity. Lynch clearly has the talent, but his opportunity may knock him down a bit here.

 

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
“Muscle Hamster” was the best rookie last year not named Robert Griffin III last year, rushing for almost 1500 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns in the process. He also chipped in a ton of receptions for about 30 yards per game receiving. This all happened behind a banged up offensive line and the ups-and-downs of Josh Freeman, who flashed brilliance and then vomited all over himself in seemingly alternating games. Enter a new regime, and one who clearly does not have their wagon hitched to Freeman, drafting Mike Glennon to compete with him. However, they clearly believe in Martin, and with good reason.

Doug Martin showed not only that he could take a beating going between the tackles, but that he was also adept at bouncing it outside if the play isn’t there. He also showed that he is a home run threat in any given game; amassing 251 rushing yards against the Raiders in week 8 last year with 4 touchdowns. He’s an amazingly solid second-year player, already in the conversation with Lynch and Charles. His age is also a factor in his value; he’s young and strong, which (hopefully) will help him stave off injury easier than Charles (who has already missed essentially a whole season with a knee injury) and Lynch.  His floor is equal with Charles and Lynch, but I think that his ceiling is much higher.

With the third pick, I took Doug Martin.

 

First Round Results: Adrian peterson, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green.

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This draft is already in the sixth round, so I have some backlog here to discuss my picks and hopefully put some thoughts to the page. I’m really excited to already be drafting, even if it is only in May and ultimately means nothing. Just feels good to be back in the Fantasy Football mindset.

 

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Preliminary Fantasy QB Rankings 1-5

One of the things I wanted to do with MSSO is discuss a bit of my fantasy sports thought process; whether for better or for worse. I consume quite a bit of media on the topic and I’ve come to realize that everybody is just guessing at this nonsense. Granted, some are better than others, but everybody is just trying to take data from prior years and apply it to the future. It’s prediction, but it’s also guessing. 

With the NFL draft over, and teams basically how they will be going into the 2013 season, I’ve started to look at creating my own ranking system, rather than blindly going off of another person’s list. Sure, that other person is the expert, but that’s a title. They have one list of dudes on the internet, and so do I. Without further ado, I present my top 5 quarterbacks of 2013.  It was initially going to be top 10 but I was a bit verbose. I am trying to tighten up the word count to make the articles a bit easier to read going forward.

Disclaimer: All my rankings are based on who I would rather have. When things start to get dicey (see 31-40, yes, I have 40 ranked), it starts to be a matter of talent vs. opportunity. Blaine Gabbert is set to be the starter going into the season, but Chad Henne is the better player and is going to usurp Gabbert, so Henne is ranked higher.

 

Tier 1. The Best of the Best of the Best, Sir. With Honors.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The NFL’s biggest payday of the 2013 paydays tops the list of fantasy QBs for me. He lost a big target with Greg Jennings going to Minnesota, but Jennings was basically an afterthought to this team last year. Jennings missed significant time with injury, and current targets James Jones and Randall Cobb stepped up in huge ways.
   
   The Packers added Eddie Lacy and Jonathon Franklin this offseason via the draft to finally, FINALLY, give them a non-godawful option at running back. There are others who are thinking that this will cause them to rely on the run more so than in the past. The only problem with this is that the Packers were in the middle third of the league when it came to running the ball last year.  They already ran the ball significantly last year, and they aren’t going to be taking the ball out Rodgers’ hands.
   
   Outside of the passing game, Rodgers adds to the rushing game, contributing about 250 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns a year to his already gaudy passing totals. This is one if the examples of something that may not necessarily make someone a better NFL quarterback, but does make them a better fantasy quarterback.  Rodgers’ legs make him the #1 fantasy option above three other QBs who are just as good as Rodgers, but less mobile.
   
   
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees is getting his head coach back in Sean Payton’s return from his Bountygate suspension. And last time I checked, he’s still Drew Brees. Jimmy Graham is still Jimmy Graham. Marques Colston is still Marques Colston. Darren Sproles is getting up there, hitting the RUNNINGBACK CLIFF of 30 years old. Sproles, however, doesn’t get the same burn as regular RBs. He doesn’t get popped by big lineman and middle linebackers. He’s catching the ball in space and playmaking; getting hit by smaller OLBs and DBs.  This should extend his shelf life a bit.
   
   There isn’t much to say about Drew Brees. The 2-3-4 guys are all bunched together below Aaron Rodgers and above the #5 QB. The only question is order. The pie is already cut up for the Saints offense, and it does nothing if not click. I like
   
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos – Last year, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker were all top-fifteen Wide Receivers. This year, they are all toys for Peyton Manning. Along with rookie Montee Ball, the Broncos already great offense is getting even better. The question for all those players is how the pie gets cut up. There will definitely be more runs and more potent runs. There will likely be more offense plays called, which means that the offensive pie will likely get bigger.
   
   Peyton isn’t getting any younger, and there are already concerns about his deep ball. Luckily most of Peyton Manning is what’s going on between his ears. He’s still, in my mind, the smartest QB in the NFL and he’ll be manning (heh.) one of the more potent offenses. He’s great, the offense is great. There isn’t a lot to say here. I liked Brees more than Manning, and Brady less. This is not reflective of Manning, but rather, reflective of Brees and Brady.
   
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots – You can’t bet against a Brady/Belichick offense, but this one is riding into the year with the most question marks on record. There isn’t a single pass catcher that doesn’t come with an issue this year. Danny Amendola is in a new, admittedly difficult system, Aaron Hernandez is hurt (again), Rob Gronkowski is hurt (still), Julian Edelman is hurt (of course) and their rookies are, well… rookies. How they will do is anyone’s guess right now.
   
   Granted, that can all be wiped clean because of the guy at the helm. Tom Brady is the model of greatness for NFL QBs in the 2000s, and into the 2010s.  He and Belichick have built a great system that has tons of guys fade in and out with various levels of success. They will run the ball more this year, which will take some pressure off Brady, but he’ll put up another Tom Brady season.  That was top-3 last year, but I really feel like this year is just a step behind Manning the Greater.
   
   I originally had Brady third, but as I was writing up the offense, I just couldn’t justify putting him over Peyton. I also couldn’t put him below the three guys below, mostly due to their inexperience and reliance on their legs.
   
   Tier 2: You Can Run, But Defenses Can’t Hide
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers – There may be a bit of homerism here putting Kaepernick at the top of these run/pass quarterbacks. “Where’s Tim Tebow?” you may ask. If you asked that, get out. OUT. Kaepernick/Cam/Wilson suffer from the same grouping as the three guys above. They all do pretty much the same thing and have the same opportunities placed in front of them.
   
   The biggest issues facing these three running QBs is the league figuring out the Read Option. I am assuming that the league pulls this off, and that the running will not come from trickery, but from designed run plays and broken plays. I think Kaepernick has the best speed out of all of these guys. Cam is known as a big bruiser, but if you’ve seen pictures of Kap shirtless, he isn’t exactly svelte.
   
   I also think that Kaepernick has the best system for his success as well as the best ability to be a “traditional” quarterback. He showed this in the NFC Championship Game last year against the Falcons. He was forced to stay behind the line of scrimmage and beat them with his arm.  Add to this a more robust receiving corps than Cam and Wilson can boast combined and the most creative OC in football, I think that this is Kaepernick’s true coming out party. Given where you can get him, I’m planning on targeting him in every single draft. And you should too.
   

So there you have it, quarterbacks one through five for next year. Not a lot of surprises, except I really feel like Kaepernick is going to take off next year in his first full season. Aaron Rodgers maintains his no-brainer top spot, followed by Brees, then Peyton, then Brady.

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Well This is Getting Embarrassing

The crazy rollercoaster ride that is the sale of the Sacramento Kings to either the “Seattle Group” led by Chris Hansen and the “Sacramento Group” led by Vivek Ranadive will, in theory, end this week. The Board of Governors is set to meet Wednesday to determine the fate of the franchise. That’s the plan, but at this point, would anybody be surprised if there was some other muck up of the process? When the Maloofs are involved, there are no guarantees. This is why the term “MALOOFED” exists… because even when you have something you think is rock solid and has no chance of being screwed up, then the Maloofs rear their ugly head, do something childish and greedy, and screw the whole thing up.

It happened with the Sacramento arena deal a couple of years ago, and it appeared to be happening to the Hansen deal (with their insistence they continue with a say in basketball operations early on upon sale).  Nothing can be guaranteed when the Maloofs are involved.  This is likely why David Stern did the verbal equivalent of taking two fingers and pointing one at each eyeball, then pointing them at the Maloofs. You can tell that recently, Stern is done with the Maloofs. He basically stated that he doesn’t give a flying you-know-what what the Maloofs have to say and that by making a deal with the Seattle group, they sealed their fate. They are going to be out of the league and he is sick of dealing with their nonsense.

They responded in a very Maloofian way this week. Brian Windhorst reported this week that the Maloofs announced that they will not sell to any Sacramento group. This is after the Seattle group threw an extra $65 million at the Maloofs.  Ray Ratto called the new plan “Plan Middle Finger” in a blogpost on CSNBayArea.com.

Plan B is to sell the Seattle group 20% of the franchise, keeping the Maloofs as controlling partners in the venture, and keeping the team in Sacramento in the rotting barn that is Arco Arena.  This appears to be the first step in some Maloofian scheme to either (a) Major League the Kings, making them so bad that nobody goes to games, so they can justify moving out of Sacramento.

(not shown, a cardboard cut out of Gavin Maloof with tear-off pieces of clothing for each win)

Or (b), which is to sell the Seattle group 20% now, making them minority owners, then transferring the rest of the shares at a later date. In true Maloofian style, they did this without understanding of the NBA rules. They still need league approval to sell those 20%.

 

So let’s say that Plan Middle Finger goes through, what happens? Well, it’s the worst-case scenario for all gorups involved. The Kings stay in Sacramento with the Maloofs at the helm. Let’s look at this from every angle

1. The Maloofs – On the surface, this looks like the best deal for the Maloofs (and let’s be honest, all they care about is the surface)—they get an influx of cash and another person to bear the load of their degrading empire by giving 1/5 of the franchise to the Seattle group. However, they stay in Sacramento. The fanbase has been shrinking in recent years because of one reason and one reason only: The Maloof Family. It’s not that the Kings
2. have been bad, the Kings were bad literally for over a decade when the Maloofs took over. However, the fans still came out and were incredibly loyal. They cheered on the likes of Kevin Gamble and Billy Owens; they bought Tyus Edney jerseys and voted for Olden Polynice for the All-Star Game. The point is that the fan base is nothing if not loyal. However, the fan base also HATES the Maloofs with a passion. At this point, the Maloof family is basically not allowed within the city of Sacramento.
   
   Keeping the Kings in Sacramento will more than likely fully degrade the already incredibly eroded fan base by keeping the Maloofs at the helm. I would be surprised if the number of season ticket holders is over 1,000 in this scenario.  The Maloofs would become even bigger pariahs than they already are. Would they come to games? They couldn’t, they’re flat out hated. What happens to the team, then? Do they become absentee owners? This is a horrible proposition for even the Maloofs; even they should understand that.
   
3. The Sacramento Group – The Kings need two things; a new ownership group and a new arena. This new deal gives them neither. Ranadive would go back to being a minority owner of the Warriors and Mastrov goes back to fitness (24 hours a day).

This is likely Maloof brinksmanship with a surprising amount of self-awareness. They know that the owners are sick of the Maloofs. They have been running the Kings into the ground for half a decade, they owe the league about $100 million, they do nothing to stay competitive and just soak up that sweet, sweet revenue sharing. By announcing that the only way the league can be rid of them is to allow for the Kings to be sold to the Seattle group, they are hoping they are forcing the league’s hand.

 

I wrote the above last night before the relocation committee’s teleconference today. It appears as though the brinksmanship will not work; they did not make any changes to their recommendations.

 

The hostage situation is almost over. On Wednesday, the Board of Governors will meet and vote on the future of the Kings in Sacramento. The Maloofs reportedly are coming around to the idea of selling to the Ranadive group, but at this point, the damage is done. There is nobody, NOBODY left in this world that thinks anything positive about the Maloofs. They have shown their hand; they don’t like to be told no. They were told they may not be able to sell to the Hansen group and they stormed around whining and crying.  The fruit of their efforts will be voted on Wednesday. No matter what happens then, the true losers in this scenario are the Maloofs.

 

 

And I understand the irony of a group getting a $300,000,000+ check losers.

 

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