I read a lot of the Something Awful forums, and recently on the fantasy sports subforum, I joined a 12-person slow mock draft for the 2013 Fantasy Football season. I think a good way to garner discussion is I will write a bit of a write up about my picks. I don’t know if this will be an exercise in futility or a great writing exercise. Either way, we’ll see where this takes us!
I had the third pick in the first round, and the first two picks went to script. First overall was Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings. Second pick was Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans. The next pick was me at number three. There were three running backs that I was considering for this spot: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs; Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks & Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Picking at number three, with ADP and Foster already gone, I’m not exactly making a tough pick here.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs:
There were tons of question marks surrounding Charles heading into last season, mostly stemming from Charles’s season-ending knee injury in 2011, which led to his draft stock falling. His stock falls no more. Charles put up over 1500 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, and he will likely build on that in 2013. The Chiefs last season got away with a clean split in starts between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, who were able to combine for 8 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, meaning defenses could key in on Charles and attempt to shut down the running game. Enter the Walrus, Supergenius and the Fisherman.
Andy Reid was brought in as a replacement to Romeo Crennel, and his entrance will immediately pay dividends for Charles. Reid’s time in Philadelphia was marked by turning out elite fantasy options at running back (Brian Westbrook for ages, then LeSean McCoy). While I wouldn’t say that Westbrook & McCoy were system backs, Reid’s system leads to success for running backs in fantasy. This should boost Charles’s value. Along with Reid came Alex Smith from San Francisco for up-to two second-round picks. Smith isn’t a world killer, but Alex Smith 2.0 is a smart, accurate passer who doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. His biggest talent is likely his ability to audible to the correct play, which we saw tons of in the last couple of years. This should take heat off Charles and may increase his value if Reid uses him as Smith’s release valve. The Chiefs used their first overall pick on Eric Fisher, an OT. It appears as though they will pair him with Branden Albert.
Behind a bolstered line, an offense that has churned out elite fantasy options for over a decade and Alex Smith 2.0, Charles is easily a top-five option for you.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks:
I’m pretty high on Lynch here; he’s entering his prime in his age 27 season, and at a few years away from the running back cliff, he’s even a great option in keeper leagues in the top five. Lynch has put up 25 rushing/receiving touchdowns combined over the last two seasons, averaging 80 yards per game in 2011 and just about 100 yards per game in 2012. He’s clearly an elite talent that has the ability to score points for your fantasy team in bunches. He does, however, come with some question marks.
The offense is moving away from him a bit. It’s strange to say with such an amazing option, but the Seahawks are building a versatile offense, what with the young quarterback Russell Wilson’s run/pass skills and the lightning in a bottle that is Percy Harvin. He may be a victim of circumstance, as the Seattle offense turns to other options, such as Harvin, in the red zone. The Seahawks also used a high pick in Christine Michael; putting him alongside Lynch and Robert Turbin in the backfield. This isn’t a knock on Lynch at all, but fantasy is about talent vs. opportunity. Lynch clearly has the talent, but his opportunity may knock him down a bit here.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
“Muscle Hamster” was the best rookie last year not named Robert Griffin III last year, rushing for almost 1500 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns in the process. He also chipped in a ton of receptions for about 30 yards per game receiving. This all happened behind a banged up offensive line and the ups-and-downs of Josh Freeman, who flashed brilliance and then vomited all over himself in seemingly alternating games. Enter a new regime, and one who clearly does not have their wagon hitched to Freeman, drafting Mike Glennon to compete with him. However, they clearly believe in Martin, and with good reason.
Doug Martin showed not only that he could take a beating going between the tackles, but that he was also adept at bouncing it outside if the play isn’t there. He also showed that he is a home run threat in any given game; amassing 251 rushing yards against the Raiders in week 8 last year with 4 touchdowns. He’s an amazingly solid second-year player, already in the conversation with Lynch and Charles. His age is also a factor in his value; he’s young and strong, which (hopefully) will help him stave off injury easier than Charles (who has already missed essentially a whole season with a knee injury) and Lynch. His floor is equal with Charles and Lynch, but I think that his ceiling is much higher.
With the third pick, I took Doug Martin.
First Round Results: Adrian peterson, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green.
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This draft is already in the sixth round, so I have some backlog here to discuss my picks and hopefully put some thoughts to the page. I’m really excited to already be drafting, even if it is only in May and ultimately means nothing. Just feels good to be back in the Fantasy Football mindset.
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