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| All Aboard the Blaine Train |
The playoffs began Thursday for many of us, and all the work we have put in all season has boiled down to a handful of one-week matchups. During playoff time, the opponent of your player becomes nearly as important as the player himself. I’m not a proponent of benching Julio Jones because he gets Josh Norman twice in the next three weeks. I couldn’t live with myself if he blew up on my bench and a down-the-roster WR I started in his place nets me three points. That’s a bitter way to go into the long, dark offseason. Still, there are instances where we need to get our stream on. Best of the Rest has been here to help you out all season long, and as we go into the playoffs, I still have your back.
QUARTERBACKS
Jameis Winston versus New Orleans (46%)
While Jameis hasn’t done too great recently outside of his five touchdown game against Philadelphia, he has massively cut back on his interceptions, which were his big bugaboo at the beginning of the season. He’s thrown three total since his week four four-interception performance. He takes on a New Orleans squad that is literally the worst against opposing quarterbacks. The last time they yielded only one touchdown was week four against Brandon Weeden. This was also the only time a quarterback only scored one touchdown against them this season. In four of their last five games (including fellow rookie Marcus Mariota), quarterbacks have thrown at least four touchdowns against the woeful Saints defense, and firing Rob Ryan did nothing to fix that.
Jameis Winston versus New Orleans (46%)
While Jameis hasn’t done too great recently outside of his five touchdown game against Philadelphia, he has massively cut back on his interceptions, which were his big bugaboo at the beginning of the season. He’s thrown three total since his week four four-interception performance. He takes on a New Orleans squad that is literally the worst against opposing quarterbacks. The last time they yielded only one touchdown was week four against Brandon Weeden. This was also the only time a quarterback only scored one touchdown against them this season. In four of their last five games (including fellow rookie Marcus Mariota), quarterbacks have thrown at least four touchdowns against the woeful Saints defense, and firing Rob Ryan did nothing to fix that.
Ryan Fitzpatrick versus Tennessee (45%)
Over the last four weeks, Fitzpatrick is a top-five quarterback, posting multiple touchdowns in all four games. In fact, he has only not gotten multiple touchdowns in a game he finished once (week four against Miami). Last week he carved up that same Miami defense for four touchdowns. He’s been consistent all season long, and is a top-ten quarterback this season on raw points totals, and that’s with his 3.04 point effort in a week he had to leave due to injury. The Titans have been pretty bad against the quarterback this season, as well. In all non-Thursday Night Football games, they have allowed at least two touchdowns to quarterbacks, and Fitzpatrick will continue that trend Sunday.
Over the last four weeks, Fitzpatrick is a top-five quarterback, posting multiple touchdowns in all four games. In fact, he has only not gotten multiple touchdowns in a game he finished once (week four against Miami). Last week he carved up that same Miami defense for four touchdowns. He’s been consistent all season long, and is a top-ten quarterback this season on raw points totals, and that’s with his 3.04 point effort in a week he had to leave due to injury. The Titans have been pretty bad against the quarterback this season, as well. In all non-Thursday Night Football games, they have allowed at least two touchdowns to quarterbacks, and Fitzpatrick will continue that trend Sunday.
Deep Dive:
Blaine Gabbert at Cleveland (4%)
Yo Gabbert Gabbert makes his return to the Deep Dive, and likely for the last time. The part-time 49ers quarterback has posted decent fantasy returns since he took the reins, and has been the #12 quarterback over the last four weeks (a four week stretch that include Arizona and Seattle). He has been consistently 16 fantasy points, which isn’t world-beating, but won’t hurt you. Granted he posted 25 points last week, but needed a 44-yard run and a 71-yard bomb in OT to pull that off. He’s racking up decent yardage numbers with his legs and through the air. He’s a sneaky play to pick up 2-3 points with his legs. If you exclude his 44-yard fluke run last week, he is still averaging 24 rushing yards per game this season, which puts him just 4.4 yards per game behind Colin Kaepernick. His yards per rush are also higher than Kaepernick’s. The Browns, like the Titans and Saints, are dismal against the pass, yielding 16.28 fantasy points to pick-six machine Matt Schaub (!!!). Over their last ten games, only now-benched Nick Foles and now-benched Peyton Manning have dropped fewer than 16 fantasy points on the Brownies, and every single quarterback that has played them since they took on Peyton, then Foles, in weeks six and seven has gotten at least two touchdowns (all but Schaub have three or more).
Blaine Gabbert at Cleveland (4%)
Yo Gabbert Gabbert makes his return to the Deep Dive, and likely for the last time. The part-time 49ers quarterback has posted decent fantasy returns since he took the reins, and has been the #12 quarterback over the last four weeks (a four week stretch that include Arizona and Seattle). He has been consistently 16 fantasy points, which isn’t world-beating, but won’t hurt you. Granted he posted 25 points last week, but needed a 44-yard run and a 71-yard bomb in OT to pull that off. He’s racking up decent yardage numbers with his legs and through the air. He’s a sneaky play to pick up 2-3 points with his legs. If you exclude his 44-yard fluke run last week, he is still averaging 24 rushing yards per game this season, which puts him just 4.4 yards per game behind Colin Kaepernick. His yards per rush are also higher than Kaepernick’s. The Browns, like the Titans and Saints, are dismal against the pass, yielding 16.28 fantasy points to pick-six machine Matt Schaub (!!!). Over their last ten games, only now-benched Nick Foles and now-benched Peyton Manning have dropped fewer than 16 fantasy points on the Brownies, and every single quarterback that has played them since they took on Peyton, then Foles, in weeks six and seven has gotten at least two touchdowns (all but Schaub have three or more).
WIDE RECEIVERS
DeVante Parker versus New York Giants (43%)
Over the last couple of weeks, Parker has absorbed fifteen targets from Ryan Tannehill. Though he dropped from ten in week 12 to five in week 13, those five represent more than 25% of Tannehill’s pass attempts last week (he only threw the ball 19 times). He shared the top-target honor with Jarvis Landry. It’s taken some time for Parker to get going, but now that he is healthy (and Kenny Stills is not), he has become the number two receiver for the Dolphins. He’s gotten 22 targets in his last three healthy games, which means that the Dolphins are looking his way no matter who the offensive coordinator may be. They are taking on a middling Giants defense, who has gotten better recently now that Jason Pierre-Paul has rounded into form. He will get the targets this week, and with two iffy defenses, he will likely be getting targets in a shootout.
DeVante Parker versus New York Giants (43%)
Over the last couple of weeks, Parker has absorbed fifteen targets from Ryan Tannehill. Though he dropped from ten in week 12 to five in week 13, those five represent more than 25% of Tannehill’s pass attempts last week (he only threw the ball 19 times). He shared the top-target honor with Jarvis Landry. It’s taken some time for Parker to get going, but now that he is healthy (and Kenny Stills is not), he has become the number two receiver for the Dolphins. He’s gotten 22 targets in his last three healthy games, which means that the Dolphins are looking his way no matter who the offensive coordinator may be. They are taking on a middling Giants defense, who has gotten better recently now that Jason Pierre-Paul has rounded into form. He will get the targets this week, and with two iffy defenses, he will likely be getting targets in a shootout.
Torrey Smith versus Cleveland (35%)
If you believe in Gabbert, you believe that someone other than Shaun Draughn will be getting targets this week. With only one healthy tight end left, that someone will be Smith. The Myth of Joe Haden is just that now: a myth, and the Browns have yielded six double-digit point performers in their last four games. Smith, for his part, has scored against both AFC North teams he’s played this season (Cleveland and Pittsburgh) as his reunion/revenge tour continues. He’s definitely a boom/bust, desperation play, but if you’re a big underdog, you don’t want the solid 6 points from a usual WR4 or WR5, you want the ability to end up with 15 or more, which is a prospect that Smith gives you. Cleveland has given up six touchdowns to wide receivers in the last three games.
If you believe in Gabbert, you believe that someone other than Shaun Draughn will be getting targets this week. With only one healthy tight end left, that someone will be Smith. The Myth of Joe Haden is just that now: a myth, and the Browns have yielded six double-digit point performers in their last four games. Smith, for his part, has scored against both AFC North teams he’s played this season (Cleveland and Pittsburgh) as his reunion/revenge tour continues. He’s definitely a boom/bust, desperation play, but if you’re a big underdog, you don’t want the solid 6 points from a usual WR4 or WR5, you want the ability to end up with 15 or more, which is a prospect that Smith gives you. Cleveland has given up six touchdowns to wide receivers in the last three games.
Deep Dive:
Brian Hartline versus San Francisco (4%)
If Hartline had his last few weeks at the beginning of the season, his ownership would be 20x what it is now, but Hartline sits at a meager 4%. With Travis Benjamin banged up and Hartline sopping up a whopping 42 targets over his last four games played, Hartline makes a great sneaky deep dive target, given that he’s out there in almost all leagues. That 10.5 targets per game, by the way, puts him above target monsters Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. Before shutting down the bears receivers last week, the 49ers were getting torched by the Cardinals receivers, and the Seahawks receivers, and every other receiver to play against them. With Johnny Football under center and no real run game to speak of to salt the game away on either side, this one will be a slug fest, with targets abound for Hartline.
Brian Hartline versus San Francisco (4%)
If Hartline had his last few weeks at the beginning of the season, his ownership would be 20x what it is now, but Hartline sits at a meager 4%. With Travis Benjamin banged up and Hartline sopping up a whopping 42 targets over his last four games played, Hartline makes a great sneaky deep dive target, given that he’s out there in almost all leagues. That 10.5 targets per game, by the way, puts him above target monsters Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. Before shutting down the bears receivers last week, the 49ers were getting torched by the Cardinals receivers, and the Seahawks receivers, and every other receiver to play against them. With Johnny Football under center and no real run game to speak of to salt the game away on either side, this one will be a slug fest, with targets abound for Hartline.
RUNNING BACKS:
Tim Hightower at Tampa Bay (34%)
With Mark Ingram suddenly going down for the season with an injury, it is on C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower to shoulder the load (no pun intended, Ingram owners). While Spiller has been a more useful option in the recent past, he has had issues picking up the playbook and blitzers this season, which means that the Saints are likely to turn towards Hightower over Spiller. Still, one or the other are worst a roster spot to see what happens this weekend. It will be telling, as Tampa Bay is towards the bottom-third in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. This is definitely a roster-and-hold situation and not a start Hightower situation.
Tim Hightower at Tampa Bay (34%)
With Mark Ingram suddenly going down for the season with an injury, it is on C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower to shoulder the load (no pun intended, Ingram owners). While Spiller has been a more useful option in the recent past, he has had issues picking up the playbook and blitzers this season, which means that the Saints are likely to turn towards Hightower over Spiller. Still, one or the other are worst a roster spot to see what happens this weekend. It will be telling, as Tampa Bay is towards the bottom-third in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. This is definitely a roster-and-hold situation and not a start Hightower situation.
Isaiah Crowell versus San Francisco (25%)
Unlike Hightower, Crowell finds himself in a plus matchup this weekend, as the 49ers are the worst in the league at stopping the running back (a far cry from the last few years when run defense was their hallmark). Excepting week one’s strange outburst of competency, every single starting running back has gotten at least nine fantasy points against the San Francisco run defense, including 17+ fantasy points to every single running back they’ve faced on the road. Crowell has gotten some carries recently, to mixed results, but if you’re this deep in the running back ranks, you’re desperate as it is.
Unlike Hightower, Crowell finds himself in a plus matchup this weekend, as the 49ers are the worst in the league at stopping the running back (a far cry from the last few years when run defense was their hallmark). Excepting week one’s strange outburst of competency, every single starting running back has gotten at least nine fantasy points against the San Francisco run defense, including 17+ fantasy points to every single running back they’ve faced on the road. Crowell has gotten some carries recently, to mixed results, but if you’re this deep in the running back ranks, you’re desperate as it is.
Juwan Thompson versus Oakland (6%)
A much better option given the situation in front of him is Thompson. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman are both banged up and neither is a lock to play Sunday. If one of them is out, the timesplit that has developed in Denver will go partially towards Thompson. As Anderson and Hillman shuffle in and out with injuries, Thompson may be able to get a hold on the situation. This is definitely a one-week desperation option, but still an option.
A much better option given the situation in front of him is Thompson. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman are both banged up and neither is a lock to play Sunday. If one of them is out, the timesplit that has developed in Denver will go partially towards Thompson. As Anderson and Hillman shuffle in and out with injuries, Thompson may be able to get a hold on the situation. This is definitely a one-week desperation option, but still an option.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis versus Oakland (46%) / Owen Daniels versus Oakland (31%)
While Daniels dropped a goose egg in their earlier matchup, we can’t really hold this Broncos offense to the same standard we did the Manning-led Broncos that broke all rules for how terrible and inefficient an offense could possibly perform and still win games. The Raiders are still among the worst against tight ends, but not the absolute worst (New Orleans took that spot). With the Broncos suddenly moving it up and down the field under the guidance of Brock Osweiler, whichever tight end is starting for Denver is a great fantasy option for you this weekend.
Vernon Davis versus Oakland (46%) / Owen Daniels versus Oakland (31%)
While Daniels dropped a goose egg in their earlier matchup, we can’t really hold this Broncos offense to the same standard we did the Manning-led Broncos that broke all rules for how terrible and inefficient an offense could possibly perform and still win games. The Raiders are still among the worst against tight ends, but not the absolute worst (New Orleans took that spot). With the Broncos suddenly moving it up and down the field under the guidance of Brock Osweiler, whichever tight end is starting for Denver is a great fantasy option for you this weekend.
Deep Dive
Will Tye at Miami (4%)
Over the last couple of weeks, the Giants have eschewed passes to non-Odell Beckham wide receivers in lieu of targeting Tye. He’s gotten 12 targets over the last couple of weeks, turning in solid returns of 7.4 and 7 fantasy points in both games, entirely on the ground. Miami is middle-of-the-road against tight ends this season, but haven’t done anything to stop tight ends that actually receive targets. They’ve played five tight ends that received seven or more targets, and three of them have scored touchdowns and they are all averaging 6.6 receptions and 85 receiving yards per game. Tye is a decent fill-in for Rob Gronkowski owners who missed out on Scott Chandler.
Will Tye at Miami (4%)
Over the last couple of weeks, the Giants have eschewed passes to non-Odell Beckham wide receivers in lieu of targeting Tye. He’s gotten 12 targets over the last couple of weeks, turning in solid returns of 7.4 and 7 fantasy points in both games, entirely on the ground. Miami is middle-of-the-road against tight ends this season, but haven’t done anything to stop tight ends that actually receive targets. They’ve played five tight ends that received seven or more targets, and three of them have scored touchdowns and they are all averaging 6.6 receptions and 85 receiving yards per game. Tye is a decent fill-in for Rob Gronkowski owners who missed out on Scott Chandler.
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