Thursday, January 31, 2013

Jinxes, Superstitions, Curses, Luck and Other Voodoo

Note: If you haven’t read my earlier post “Why Do We Love Sports?” It will help because it explains the buy-in people have with their team of choice.

Appropriate that I was inspired to talk about fans and their crazy rituals, and posit some reasons behind them while the Super Bowl looms in New Orleans, the voodoo capital of America. This weekend the 49ers and the Ravens are set to do battle in Super Bowl 47, and fans from coast to coast (literally) are doing everything they can on the ethereal plane to contribute to their team’s victory this weekend. The mantra of the current Bud Light sports ad campaign is that “It’s only crazy if it doesn’t work,” an ad campaign featuring fan superstitions and their perceived contributions to the team’s success. It strikes home for most people, because everybody has their small that they realize is illogical… if not a little crazy.

Today was my office’s “Super Bowl party” in honor of our local team being in the big game this weekend. We were encouraged to wear our 49ers gear. I, logically, chose to don my NaVorro Bowman #53 at work.  I will be the first to admit that my Bowman jersey is disgusting. The bad boy has seen every game played at Candlestick since last Christmas. Granted, that isn’t that many, but tailgating in the dirt outside Candlestick can be a harrowing experience.  However, there are a certain subset of people who are superstitious who believe this grunge and grime, this patina of fandom, somehow contributes to their team’s success. The various food stains (and beer splashes) on my #53 are testament enough that I am one of these people.

Logically, I know that me wearing a disgusting stained jersey has no bearing on what the 49ers do on Sunday; but to me, it helps. Harkening back to my theory of fandom; that a fan inserts themselves into the team’s narrative, becoming a part of it, it actually makes a bit of sense. All week all we have heard is about how hard the 49ers have been working in practice and in the film room. If a fan firmly believes themselves to be a part of the narrative (a “true fan”), then obviously they need to do what they can to contribute to the success of their favorite team.

Try as I may, however, Jim Harbaugh won’t give me a chance to try out for Defensive End. Ditto Bruce Bochy and a fireballer Relief Pitcher.  Therefore, I do whatever I can.  Fans take a look at their team’s success, and, with their obsession with subconsciously inserting themselves into the narrative, look at what they are doing and how it contributes to the play on the field. Humans are trained to see patterns in their actions, and patterns in the face of actionable logic can be called… superstition!

Outside of nasty jerseys, the most common superstition is the playoff beard. I started growing a beard in October. The reason for this is because I had a cut on my face that would reopen every time I shaved. As the beard grew, the Giants made spectacular comebacks in the playoffs, eventually winning the World Series. Deep down, I know that the amount of hair on my face contributed exactly 0% to Pablo Sandoval cranking three homeruns off of Justin Verlander, but part of me can’t separate the two.

Just a few days ago, I looked at my beard, considering shaving it. “Not yet,” I thought. “Not until after Sunday.” Initially, the logic played out. I couldn’t shave my beard before the Super Bowl, it would destroy my chances of helping the 49ers win on Sunday!  It took me until I got to work to realize the lunacy of my thought process. In my mind, it made perfect sense to keep a beard to help Justin Smith lock in the double team, to help Colin Kaepernick on that read option.  After half a second of consideration, however, that is the logic of a crazy person. To think that the current state of my facial follicles has any bearing on Sunday’s tilt is pure illogicality. However, as a fan, you have bought into the narrative, and you have bought into the team’s success. Since their successes and failures are your successes and failures, you contribute any way you can.

This is why fans develop superstitions and rituals, they believe that their small efforts contribute to their team’s overall success.  They believe that their beards or dirty jerseys will inspire their teams to play better and their efforts contribute to the victory. What happens in defeat?  Fans grasp at random reasons why their team didn’t win; they didn’t cheer hard enough, they washed their jersey, they shaved, they didn’t cheer loud enough.  Given that fans have decided that they are a part of the narrative, it is logical to think that they have to figure out a way to contribute.  When a team comes up short, the players analyze their performance on the field. If fans consider themselves a small part of the team, then logic would dictate that they, too, have to analyze their performance.

In the end, whatever we do as fans does nothing to determine the outcomes when our teams play. However, as we are pattern-detecting creatures; we see whatever random things we are doing as contributing to the overall success of our teams.  Therefore, we have to optimize our contributions to the franchises. When they win, we look inward and try to figure out what we did to help them. Obviously, we want our teams to win, so whatever random thing we have done we will replicate in order to ensure victory. This is how superstitions develop and why they have such a hold on the collective psyche of sports fans. We all do it, we all recognize that it is silly and that there is no logic behind it.

We all recognize that what we do at home or in the stands has no bearing on what happens on the field. Therefore, we should all abandon our superstitions as they are ultimately pointless. We won’t discuss this point, we don’t recognize this point, but deep down, we all know it’s true.  Despite this truth, we continue, relentlessly towards pointless rituals.

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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Alex Smith, QB, ____?


Earlier this week, news broke that apparently Alex Smith had requested the 49ers release him prior to free agency. This will allow him to go to his choice of teams (who will have him).  This is a huge risk for Smith, who did not receive a lot of fanfare in the open market prior to the 2012 season. Smith, likely, believes that he can get a contract as he now has 1.5+ years of being a serviceable Quarterback. There are 32 teams, so there are 32 possible outcomes for Smith this season. Rather than trying to guess where he is going to go, I am going to group teams together by the likelihood Smith goes there.  Alex Smith wants to go because he wants to be a starter, so this is working under the assumption that wherever he goes, he will start.


For full disclosure, I have read Ian Rappaport’s report that the four front-runners for Alex Smith are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cardinals and the Bills. The funny part is I mostly, independently came to the same solution. That tells you that Ian Rappaport gets paid to do what I do while we watch Chopped.

Also keep in mind that this isn’t a list of QBs I think are better than Alex Smith or worse than Alex Smith. It’s about the likelihood that he ends up on these teams. There are several factors outside of talent on the field that could lead to him ending up on another team’s roster.

Let’s get the “Absolutely Not” out of the way. These are franchises who have their QB face of the franchise or present current QB options that they believe are better than Alex Smith, or QBs that have an extremely bright future, or teams where they have too much currently invested in their QB to move on. Teams in this category get no discussion because the reasons are obvious.

Absolutely Not:
Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins, The Entire NFC South (Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons).

Stranger Things Have Happened:
Chicago Bears: Hear me out, and you have to keep in mind that this is the category that is slightly above “never in a million years.”  There are many people in Chicago who think Jay Cutler has run his course. He is surly with the media and a lot of people don’t like him because of this. There’s a new coach in town and he may be looking to put his own stamp on things. He’s from the Canadian Football League, where mobile quarterbacks have a bit more merit. However, that’s not likely.

Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton has been good, not great in his first couple of years. His issue has been with consistency. Alex Smith over the last couple of years has been maddeningly consistent. There is the added bonus of Smith mentoring Dalton and possibly passing the torch back to Andy.

Detroit Lions: This came close to being in the Absolutely Not territory, but Detroit is firmly in the middle of “cap hell.” They were terrible for several years when rookie contracts for high picks were both huge and long. Throw on Megatron’s contract to Suh & Stafford’s suddenly massive contracts is an issue. It’s a long shot but there’s a slim chance of moving Stafford, drafting a project QB and using Alex Smith as a stop-gap mentor.

San Diego Chargers: Ads with the Lions, the Chargers were the close to being in the “absolutely not” territory. Phillip Rivers is their franchise quarterback. Rather, he was their franchise quarterback. In the last couple of years, he’s lost his ability to throw the ball to the boys in (powder) blue. With a new GM in town, there’s an—albeit slim—chance they move on from Rivers and attempt to install Smith as a “steady Eddie” type quarterback that he has been the last couple of years.

There isn’t much to say about the middle rounds, so I’ll just give a few notes about each team.

Maybe, But Probably Not:
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are a 49ers division rival; their offensive highlights include an atrocious offensive line, a running game that should be called “a handoff for a 3 yard loss” game and… Larry Fitzgerald. It’s unlikely Smith ends up here in a trade or as a free agent.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are comfortable with Tannehill so far, but there is a slim chance they nab Smith and use him as a stop-gap to mentor the sophomore playcaller.

Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder being unable to play in the NFC Wild Card round this year is probably the best thing that could have happened to Christian Ponder. He is a VERY poor man’s Alex Smith and does just enough to make sure they don’t lose. By “just enough” I mean hand off to Peterson. By not playing in the playoffs, he likely bought himself another year for “getting them there” (by handing off to Adrian Peterson).

New York Jets: They owe Mark Sanchez a bajillion dollars and still have to figure out what to do with Tim Tebow. Unless Mark Sanchez dies and they really want to give the 49ers Revis, I don’t see a trade happening. As for Smith going there in free agency… WHO WOULD SIGN WITH THE JETS RIGHT NOW???
San Francisco 49ers: It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that Alex Smith receives no real offers and crawls back to the 49ers on a much more manageable contract for 4-5 a year for a few years to hold a clipboard. Unlikely, but possible.

I Could See It:
Cleveland Browns: Despite being part of the carousel of offensive coordinators that broke Alex Smith in San Francisco, Norv Turner’s new offense in Cleveland may be a good fit for Alex Smith. New Browns Head Coach Rob Chudzinski is considered one of the best play callers in the game. The only question is their “sophomore” quarterback Brandon Weeden, who is only 6 months younger than Smith, is the incumbent.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert is terrible and not a starting quarterback in the NFL. There are no two ways around that. The rumor was that current 49ers OC Greg Roman would make the move to lead the Jaguars, and that Alex Smith would come with him. Given how terrible Gabbert is, Alex Smith would be a huge upgrade.

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker is exciting, but erratic. He needs a mentor that isn’t Matt Hasselbeck because that experience isn’t working. This is another stop-gap like with Ryan Tannehill. Smith would do enough to make the offense run, but he won’t turn them into contenders. Mostly because they’re terrible.
Oakland Raiders: Okay hear me out! Alex Smith is a huge fan of the bay area, and Carson Palmer is old and broken. His end of year stats look… okay… but that is because he is the king of junk time. If Darren McFadden can get his head on straight, the running game will do fine. Pair that with the receiving skills of Marcel Reese, who can do something with Smith’s inevitable check-down, then you may have something.

The Likely Suspects:
Buffalo Bills: They only team in New York is sick of the Fitzmagic and want someone they can depend on a bit more. Ryan Fitzpatrick makes too many mistakes on too many chances. It will upset chronically upset wide receiver Stevie Johnson, but with news today that Johnson may move to the slot in some sets and be used all over the field, he can probably stay happy with some short-to-intermediate routes and balls thrown his way. Smith will move to the 49ers circa 2010, with a relatively strong defense and a potentially monstrous running game. The Bills would be my favorite to get Smith, if it wasn’t for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s massive contract.
Kansas City Chiefs: My desired spot for Alex Smith to land! He would be paired with a coach in Andy Reid who can make some junk QBs look decent—cough, Kelvin Kolb, cough. Throw in one of the best running backs in the game and my undying, unreasonable love for Dexter McCluster, and I think Alex Smith will do great here. They are sick of Matt Cassel, and Alex Smith is everything they hoped Matt Cassel could have been when they signed him. It’s time for them to move on, and it is getting increasingly likely that taking a quarterback with the first overall pick will be a foolish maneuver for the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly’s offense needs a smart quarterback who is extremely accurate with short to medium passes and who can run if needed, but doesn’t look to do so. Sound familiar? The Michael Vick Experience is over in Philadelphia. He’s old and broken, and that won’t work when your game is predicated on speed.

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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Should We Save the Pro Bowl?

As I write these words, the NFC is shellacking the AFC in the 2013 Pro Bowl. The Pro Bowl is the annual “All-Star Game” of the NFL. The only problem is that everybody wants to make the Pro Bowl, but nobody wants to play in it. The other problem is nobody wants to watch it; I looked up that score on NFL.com.  Another problem is player selection. The players are selected as the best at their position by fans and coaches, except when they’re merely household names that may or may not have had their best years behind them. I’m looking at you, Jeff Saturday. 

Jeff Saturday admitted that he probably wasn’t the best choice to be the starter for the NFC in the Pro Bowl, or that he was even a Pro Bowl caliber Center. His coaches agree that he may not be a Pro Bowl caliber player, mostly because he was benched in December by the Packers. Saturday is the poster boy for the main issues with fan voting in these events. In theory, the fans would vote in the exciting, deserving players. In theory, if they don’t know how to vote for a position, they vote by name. Jeff Saturday is the closest a center in the NFL comes to a household name; he was Peyton Manning’s center in Indianapolis from Peyton’s sophomore year until Manning left for Denver and Saturday left for Green Bay after last season.  Manning loved him, and they worked very well together. As Peyton’s star rose, so did Saturday’s.  He made the Pro Bowl many times on these merits, including this year. However, this year he did not deserve it. He was voted in by fans because nobody knows the name of most lineman because generally lineman are seen, but not known, unless they are really, really bad.

According to NFL.com, Jeff Saturday both announced his retirement would come at the end of the Pro Bowl and he switched sides from the NFC to the AFC to defend Peyton’s hide one last time. A heartwarming end to a career, but one that should have ended with the Packers’ elimination in the Divisional game against San Francisco.

The only problem with this is that Jeff Saturday isn’t very good anymore. He led the Packers Offensive Line to giving up the most sacks in the league this year, after spending his entire career with Peyton Manning behind him, who almost never gets sacked (Manning was first in lowest sack percentage in 2010 and 2009, according to pro-football-reference.com).
I reloaded NFL.com; it’s 52-21. Blech.
Outside of players who are voted in not being deserved, players who actually deserve to go have no interest in going. As the rules go, a player must be medically barred from playing in the Pro Bowl, but the sheer number of players who get medically cleared from playing is staggering. From a quick glance, there are 33 players in the Pro Bowl this year are replacements—this is including all three NFC Quarterbacks on the roster. Granted, this is skewed as the 49ers are playing in the Super Bowl, and as such, their league leading nine Pro Bowl players are ineligible to go to Hawaii.  The most obnoxious are the players who played a week ago, or two weeks ago and did not get hurt. For example, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Gonzalez, Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Vince Wilfork all looked fine last week (or in the case of Rodgers, the week before). I doubt they would be out of the Super Bowl next week if it came to it. However, they are able to exploit a “loophole” of sorts. This loophole is that every NFL player is beat up and nursing some sort of injury at the end of the season. They don’t want to take the potential hit to end their career, or delay the start of the next season, so they get their Pro Bowl bonus from their contract, opt out medically, and skip the trip to Hawaii. The players that do go are honored to be there, but they do not perform up to snuff. The rules prevent any sort of serious interaction at the line of scrimmage, where traditional football games are won and lost. The level of competition is laughable.

What is to be done with the Pro Bowl? People watch, so it is unlikely that any effort will be made to change the product, despite the sabre rattling to the contrary.  The best possible scenario would be turning the Pro Bowl into a weekend event, much like the NBA does with All-Star Weekend and MLB does with the Home Run Derby, the futures game (minor leaguers to watch) and the celebrity softball game that surround their All-Star Game.  The game itself could recognize how silly it is and become full-on seven-on-seven flag football, and embrace the schlock. It would be great to see a skills competition from QBs, RBs and WRs.  Personally, I would love a Punt, Pass and Kick competition that exclusively features lineman.  The NBA & MLB have done it right; nobody asks if we should continue having those competitions.

(62-35, what a joke).

Ultimately, I think that the Pro Bowl, in its current form, should be put to rest. People watch, but they universally recognize that it is an inferior product. If they reform it from being a fully-recognized schlock fest into a series of events with an eye on fun. It would be unfair to remove the event from Hawaiians, and it would lose the NFL and players a lot of revenue. It would be irresponsible for owners to leave the Pro Bowl money on the table, and negligent for players to not push to keep those incentives in their contract.  The right move is for the league to take a look at the presentation and events surrounding the Pro Bowl, not to eliminate the event itself. Right now, it feels like the Commish has an idea of “all-or-nothing,” and it appears as though he may not be pursuing alternate avenues to modifying the Pro Bowl.

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Friday, January 25, 2013

Why Do People Love Sports?

Sal Paolantonio, contributor to ESPN once wrote a book called How Football Explains America. It’s full of high-minded ideas about how its goals reflect Manifest Destiny (get from one end all the way to the other) and that it is purely American in that its goal is to systematically take the space on the field, turning their territory into yours. While I appreciate the sentiment, I think Paolantonio maybe stretched things just a little bit. I won’t be discussing that today, I will be answering the question, “Why do people like sports so much?” Well, I’ll be discussing it the best way I can in 1,000 words. That may be able to reach the whole goal of 365,000 all on its own!

Sure, there are the superficial reasons like, for example, dingers are really cool. And hard hits are cool. And dunks are cool. However, I’d like to go a bit more in-depth than that.

The simplest way to explain the allure of sports, at least to me, is the same uniting force that has been behind the formation of every society since the beginning of time. Us vs. Them.  Since I don’t want to take a hit from Ray Lewis or Haloti Ngata, I won’t be suiting up for the 49ers on Sunday. Neither will any of you, unless Colin Kaepernick or Aldon Smith read this silly thing. Nobody I know will suit up for the Niners, yet so many people refer to them as “we” or “us.”  When you join the ranks of a fandom, you reap the benefits of joining a society. Fandom has all the trappings of a society, symbolism (logos), a history with milestones and touchpoints (The Catch, The Catch II, The Catch III), founding fathers (Bill Walsh, Eddie DeBartolo) and Elder Statesmen (Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Joe Montana, Ronnie Lott, Roger Craig… the list goes on).  There are houses of worship and a collective consciousness associated with being the fan of a sports team, as well. Kate’s dad refers to going to Candlestick Park as, “going to church.”

Going back to the formation of humanity, you have to realize that there haven’t always been cities, or city-states. There haven’t always been nations and capitols. You have to realize that at some point decisions were made to band together forming alliances and societies. Once a group of people band together, they become an “us,” and anyone who opposed them became a “them.” Athens vs. Sparta is an us vs. them battle; as was the Axis vs. the Allies. The Allies weren’t friends, but they banded together against the dual threats of Germany/Italy and Japan. As the adage goes, the enemy of your enemy is your friend.  In no respects would I saw that I am a friend of every 49ers fan, Giants fan or Kings fan. However, I consider all of them in my “us.” We share a society together; the cliché is that it is a “nation.” Raider Nation, Red Sox Nation, what have you.  The terminology itself calls upon the loyalty and pride that accompanies a nationality.

This is also why territories play so heavily into fans selecting a team. These players share your space, these players share your city. Anything that befalls the city befalls them. Travelling teams are an abject failure because there is no reason at all to root for them. There are no ties to anything at all there.  Now, this doesn’t necessary apply to states where there are no teams, but I may delve into that later.

So what? It’s a nation, a nation of people who you don’t know or even particularly like, tied together by a group of men that the vast majority of fans will never meet. Well, now that I’ve established the sense of group and community that stems from being fans of the shared team, I can get to my main point.

People watch sports because of the shared experience of watching the teams.  The successes on the field are your successes. Their failures on the field hurt no less than your own. Simply put, the enjoyment of sports stems from the group experience of inserting yourself into the narrative. Anybody who has seen an amazing game live can tell you there is nothing compared to that experience. I had the extremely great pleasure of watching the 2011 Divisional Playoffs in person. This is the Saints vs. 49ers game wherein Vernon Davis caught the post from Alex Smith to win the game. If you’ve heard about the Niners, you know about this game.  Candlestick was ridiculous after that game. People I never met and couldn’t pick out of a lineup were mobbing each other. I hugged everybody around me; people I’ve never seen before and will never see again. 69,000 and change shared in the success of the 53 down on the field. We bought in, whole hog, and it paid dividends.

However, being a sports fan is not all about that rush and excitement that comes from seeing your team succeed. I submit that the best fans are the fans of the teams that fail. By “fail” I don’t mean the fans of the 2012-13 Lakers who may or may not make the playoffs. I’m talking about chronic, abject failure. The Browns, the Kings, the Astros. These teams are are just flat out bad.  Why would fans support them? Well, if you follow the narrative above, once you buy in, you’re in, for better or for worse. You’re, in your heart, a part of the team. You can’t leave the team just because they are bad because it feels like you’re abandoning a part of yourself. Just like you have to be bad at something to truly appreciate when something is good, the payoff of watching a bad team turn great is just as satisfying. Having lived through this in 2010 and 2012 with the Giants, I can tell you that it vindicates all the Ryan Kleskos and Lance Niekros. You watch to pay your dues, put in your time, and when your team gets good, you reap the sweet, sweet rewards.

This is why the issue with Sacramento and the Maloofs is so frustrating to me. I feel betrayed. I have felt betrayed for the last five years. I  am emotionally invested in this team, and the Maloofs drove it into the ground without even trying to field a competitive product, and then they are trying to rip it away from us.

Imagine that you work and scrimp and save and you finally buy that nice manual sports car that you couldn’t really afford but you tried for years to get.  This is the emotional capital that is invested in your team. Now imagine that you go to take a road trip in your brand spanking new car. Somewhere along the line, something goes horribly wrong, and your vehicle gets carjacked. The thief insists he can drive manual. He actually does a pretty good job at first. Then, for some reason or another, maybe his meds wear off, and he forgets how to drive manual. The thief spends the whole time in the wrong gear, and you are stuck in the passenger seat watching. Every time he tries to shift, he messes it up. You can hear your baby that you worked so hard to get being destroyed, but there is nothing you can do about it.  You get angrier and angrier, an impotent rage that you can’t do anything about this person destroying that which you loved so much and worked so hard to achieve.  He finally acquiesces and says he’s had his fun. He pulls over and tells you to get out of the car.  He starts to get out and you think “finally!” There may be damage, but it’s fixable, you still have a car that you worked so hard to get. The thief then picks up a rock off the ground, and sticks it on the accelerator. You have to watch your car drive off a cliff and there is nothing you can do about it.

Then the thief gets millions of dollars for his effort.

Imagine the rage you would feel.  Obviously in this situation, the sports car is the Kings, who finally got good around 2000. The Maloofs had just taken over and things were going smoothly. Then their meds wore off. They forgot how to put a competitive product on the floor—among many other things—and are now getting to sell the team for hundreds of millions of dollars for their effort.  That anger and betrayal is hard to match (outside an outlandish scenario such as the above). This is our team, we’ve invested in it, and you can’t just take that from us. That is flat out betrayal. To put it flatly, you’re taking the centerpiece of the “us” that we have created, and you’re giving it to “them.” The others, the barbarians, the outsiders. They can’t have it, it’s ours. We’ve invested in it emotionally and monetarily.

To sum it all up, the reason that people love sports is that it creates a bond between strangers, for better or for worse.  You can insert yourself into the narrative and make their successes your successes, and you feel the pangs of their failures. It is nation building on a minor scale, and harkens back to the early days of humanities when the first groups of people banded together over territory and whatever other random reason they could to create societies, then nations, then empires.

Side Note: While writing this, I remembered an interaction I had with a fan at the Niners-Packers Divisional Game this year. News had just broken that the Maloofs intended to sell to the Hansen-Ballmer group. They sat down in front of Kate’s family’s seats, and the guy was wearing a Kings windbreaker.  “Go Niners!” he said. “Go Niners! I responded, “and screw the Maloofs!” He responded in kind, “screw the Maloofs!”  Two fans who never met before and never met again shared joy and despair over such a short exchange. Both knew what the other had gone through and experienced in relation to those two franchises. To steal from Chasing Amy, we “shared a moment.”

That, right there, is why people love sports.

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Thursday, January 24, 2013

A Season in Review—2012 San Francisco 49ers

With the Super Bowl upon us in ten days, I wanted to take a look back on the year that was in the City by the Bay. This was my first year as a season ticket holder and it definitely adds a different element to the proceedings.
The season started off pretty electric. The 49ers had a chip on their shoulder thanks to the way their 2011 season ended; a wholly disappointing effort by the offense and special teams that led to a loss in the NFC Championship Game. They addressed this hard. They ensured their defensive 11 would all be coming back, and bolstered it with some depth. They used their “big gun” moves on offensive talent. They brought in free agents Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and Brandon Jacobs (who ran something like 10 times for a quarter of a yard or something before getting cut). They brought Leonard Davis out of retirement to provide another big man to ram into their big men.  Rounds 1 and 2 of the draft were used on a project Wide Receiver in AJ Jenkins and the versatile speedster LaMichael James.  There was a ton of buzz entering the season because the Niners were poised to make a run. They addressed their weaknesses, except what some people would say was their greatest weakness in Alex Smith at QB.

The season started off to script for the Faithful, as the Niners started 2-0 with road wins over Green Bay and a blowout of Detroit (before people knew detroit was a dumpster fire). They then fell apart in Minnesota, losing to a team they very well should have beaten. Minnesota exposed a weakness in the 49ers—shut down the run game, shut down the offense. They were able to contain Frank Gore & Kendall Hunter and the 49ers offense shriveled and died. Alex Smith simply did not have the ability to “take over” a game. People again began questioning Alex Smith’s ability to handle that offense. Then they got to take on two of the worst teams in the AFC.

The next two weeks saw the 49ers absolutely dismantle the Bills and Jets, winning by a combined 79-3. People starting calling them the best team in football. Those two games were ridiculous; Jim Harbaugh put the NFL on Madden Rookie Mode. The thing that stood out about those games, later in the season, was the poise and intelligence shown by a little known second-year quarterback by the name of Colin Kaepernick. In the early part of the season, 49ers Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman sprinkled in plays here and there where Kaepernick would replace Smith in an effort to run, or threat at the run, to add a wrinkle to the offense.  At the end of the Jets game, with the 49ers up 34-0 and very little time remaining, Kaepernick broke free. He had a long run that would have surely ended with the 49ers up 41-0 in an absolute stomping of the Jets.

Kaepernick didn’t score, however; he slid down at the one yard line. When asked about it after the game, he related that he did not want to risk any injuries as the game was already out of hand. In a stretch where the team outscored their opponents by 76 points, the young QB’s poise and presence of mind ended up being the story at the end of the season.

In a pattern this season that only finally broke in the playoffs, the 49ers lost to the Giants after winning two in a row. The 49ers offense stagnated again against the Giants; the second time in two meetings in calendar year 2012. This was an inkblot game for people. Alex Smith supporters said that they were the world champs, and there is no shame in losing to them. Colin Kaepernick supporters, bolstered by his recent success in “one-off” plays as in the Giants game, said it was time for a change. Harbaugh stuck with his man.
Alex Smith rewarded Jim Harbaugh’s decision by leading them to victory over division rivals Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. The latter of these two games earned Alex Smith Offensive Player of the Week Honors as he completed 18 of 19 passes picking apart the Cardinals defense for 232 yards and 3 Touchdowns, with 0 interceptions.

The 49ers had their bye, and Alex Smith likely staved off a larger role for Colin Kaepernick thanks to his performance against the Cardinals. A first quarter concussion in a home game against the St. Louis Rams knocked him out of the game, and it was time for Kaepernick to rise to the occasion. Which he did, sort of. He took over for the injured Alex Smith and lead the team back, snatching a tie from the jaws of defeat. Candlestick was speechless. There is no feeling that can describe the dissatisfaction that comes from driving home without an answer. No win, no loss. Everyone just goes home. Nobody is happy, nobody is sad.

The next week Alex Smith failed his concussion test and the Colin Kaepernick Era was upon us. They were playing the stout defense of the Chicago Bears and the so-so offense. Especially so, since the Chicago Bears were also playing their backup QB, Jason Campbell. This was the Monday Night Football game that week, so a national audience was privy to the Kaepernick outbreak in the Backup Bowl. Kaepernick gashed the Bears defense, passing for 243 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. He added 4 runs for 10 yards, which is pretty unimpressive given what he would do in future games.

San Francisco made their first trip to New Orleans this season and the hoopla was around whether or not Alex Smith had been “Wally Pipped,” a term referring to the outfielder who was injured and lost his job to All-Time Legend Lou Gehrig. Jim Harbaugh decided to stick with the young QB, citing Alex Smith not passing his concussion tests until late in the week. The classic controversy began. Kaepernick did enough to not lose, which is all that was asked of Alex Smith, with a few impressive runs. The defense did all the work with the 49ers running back interceptions for touchdowns on consecutive Drew Brees passes (one at the end of the second half and one with his first pass of the second half).

The Niners travelled to St. Louis to avenge their overtime tie. As with the other 49ers non-wins this season, nothing went right. The Rams did whatever they wanted, with Stephen Jackson destroying their vaunted run defense and Kaepernick looking very much like it was his third start. They continued the Win-Win-Loss/Tie pattern and dropped the game to the Rams (with it almost being a tie again).

Controversy swirled around San Francisco. It was easy to understand sticking with the hot hand in Kaepernick when he won against two of the biggest games of the season for the 49ers. Conventional wisdom would dictate going back to the “Steady Eddie” who had lead them through the first half of the season. If there’s anything about Jim Harbaugh, it’s that he is anything but conventional.  He stuck with his guns and the young gun. He continued the pattern, with wins against Miami and a highly impressive road win in Foxboro before dropping a road game to Seattle. The 49ers rounded out the season by winning their last game against the Cardinals at home.

They then sat and watched, as the Minnesota Vikings hit a last-second field goal to seal the 49ers first-round bye and much needed rest. This turned out to be a difference maker in the post-season.

The offense that the 49ers displayed this offseason is unlike anything they ran all year. The Read Option had become a minor part of the offense under Kaepernick, but they used the week off to perfect this. Kaepernick gashed the Packers in every sense of the word. He ran for an NFL QB record on the ground and picked apart the offense through the air with precision, speed and touch. The game was never in doubt in the second half.  Nothing better exemplified the stomping of the Packers than the Greg Jennings touchdown late in the fourth quarter that was met with no reaction in the crowd. No cheers, no groans. It wasn’t even close.

The NFC Championship Game, Mr. Kaepernick’s ninth start of his career, showed the measure of the man. The 49ers couldn’t get anything right, and ended up down 17-0 before they got their act together on either offense or defense. Greg Roman, rather than airing it out, stuck with his guns, and fed Frank Gore. The run game got the 49ers back into it. The Read Option rendered the Falcons defense useless as the 49ers used the threat of Colin Kaepernick to lead to a big day on the ground.  The defense tightened up against the best WR duo—and the greatest TE of all time—to hold them to 7 points after they went up 17-0. A Frank Gore run on a Read Option play put them ahead for good.

Special Shout Out goes HERE for NaVorro Bowman stopping the Falcons on fourth down in the red zone, saving the game. Yes, he got away with a shove, but they had been shoving all day on both sides. He knew the refs would swallow the whistle, and he was right.

The 49ers currently sit on the precipice of greatness, they are going for their sixth Lombardi Trophy in as many times. A win will tie them with the Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins. Whatever happens on February 3, 2013 at 3:30 PM Pacific (not that I’m counting), it’s been a crazy season.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a Joke

Strong words, but that’s what titles are for. Let me rephrase that. The system by which the Baseball Writers Association of America elect players into the Hall is a joke.  In 2013, for the second time in the last ~40 years, nobody will be inducted from the BBWAA annual vote. The closest was Craig Biggio. This is due, mostly, to the wafting stench of steroids on the majority of the newly eligible (Bonds, McGwire), and the contact high and whispers about potential steroid usage on the other parties (Piazza, Bagwell). Craig Biggio was apparently good enough but not too good.
baseball-reference.com has a far more precise explanation of the election process than I can offer:
  1. “1967-present: Votes are cast annually by BBWAA members with 10 or more years of membership. Each qualified BBWAA member may select no more than 10 names from a pre-screened ballot of players who played in MLB for at least 10 seasons and had been retired for at least 5; players whose names are cast on at least 75% of the ballots are elected to the HoF, while players named on fewer than 5% of ballots are dropped from future ballots. In addition, if a player has been on the ballot 15 times without being elected, he is also dropped from future ballots.”1
There are several issues with the voting process that need to be addressed and fixed.
First, the parties who are eligible needs to be adjusted. Once a person is a card-carrying member of the BBWAA for a decade, they get a vote. If they are promoted to being the editor-in-chief of their newspaper, or transfer to covering curling, or drop out of writing entirely and move to the Himalayas, descending once a year to find out who played the right way and farting out a ballot consisting of ten David Eckstein votes, their vote remains valid. This is insane. Baseball is already considered old and boring, when it’s actually on the cutting edge of sports analytics and has one of the better give-and-take stories with regards to finding talent. Nobody made a book and a movie about the NFL salary cap. Sabermetrics (named after the Society of American Baseball Research, or SABR) destroyed the player evaluation mold. New stats are born every year, advanced stats, that can isolate a player’s contribution to the game. The problem is these guys aren’t the ones deciding who are the important players in history. A dynamic vetting process needs to be implemented, wherein one can lose their vote for idiocy or apathy towards the process. This includes being booted from the process for submitting a blank ballot.

I won’t get into a rant about how conventional baseball wisdom and statistics are garbage when it comes to measuring the success of an individual player. That is literally a task for another day.

The second issue with the process is that the ballots are limited to ten players. I call this the Issue of Jon Heyman and Jack Morris. Jack Morris hits the end of his 15-year eligibility window next year. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is a massive Jack Morris fan, despite Jack Morris not being all that great. Next year is Morris’s last year of eligibility, and Heyman has already announced that he will be casting a vote for Jack Morris. This removes a vote from a more deserving player than Morris, ticking his ballot down to nine names. Multiply this by each beat writer’s pet bad-player-on-a-good-team, you’re removing dozens of votes from deserving players. Some years there will be more than ten players who deserve to be in the Hall. Without doing research, and off the top of my head, I can name Greg Maddux, John Glavine, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. These are all players who are eligible and deserving to be in the hall next year. All these players were eligible this year and next year. Eight names, and this doesn’t even scratch the surface of players who have been around but just haven’t gotten the 75% of votes yet. Eight names that must be on ballots next year, plus each person’s “pet” player, leaves one vote at large for the players for which the clock is ticking.

Of course, there’s the mystique of the ~~first ballot Hall of Famer~~ that causes people to leave a deserving player off in lieu of someone who has been eligible for 4 or 5 years, whose clock is ticking. These players then get elected, but, in the process, they start a new round of ticking clocks. In perpetuity.

Third, there needs to be accountability for the ballots submitted. They are currently anonymous and a majority of the old guard only release who they have voted for in order to make a point. If everybody’s ballot was made public, there would be accountability to the public for these men who are entrusted with ensuring future baseball fans know the past.  Luckily, many of the new guard publish their ballots as a matter of course. They are about creating discourse, not about trying to be the definitive source of information.

The overarching issue with the balloting process is one that nobody is really willing to point out: the voters. There are too many voters with too many pet players, random beefs and hunches about who should or should not be in the hall. They reward players who were nice to them and hold pointless, lengthy grudges for the others.  They have turned the process on its head. Too many of the voters have made it about themselves, about stirring up controversy so they can sit back and look at what they have wrought. This is the easiest problem to fix, as the new voters have been forged in the SABR fire. They are about finding answers, not about making a decision then defending said position.
The Hall of Fame is a joke, and there will be players for whom the process will end up costing them an entry (hello, Dale Murphy). However, the future is bright. The writers getting their voting cards in the next few years are of the new mold. They will look at the numbers, not their hunches, not their gut, not their feelings about the players. It will be cold and methodical. It will be mostly robotic.
It will be, at least, about the players. Not about the process or the voters, which is the problem right now.
- JK

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1. http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/hof_voting.shtml (hey look I cited a source; take note, ESPN).

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

1K A Day–365,000 words in 2013 / No Guts, No Glory

I started this sports blog to have a place where I can articulate my thoughts and opinions about things going on in the NFL, NBA and MLB. The only problem was I didn’t know where to start. There has been enough happening in my sports world to have a place to start.

Two places, in fact.

A bit of a background on me, I am from Sacramento, CA and I currently reside in San Jose, CA. You can guess my teams. The Giants, The 49ers and the (Sacramento) Kings. I think you can see the two storylines I could really attack here. Sunday was one of the best and worst sports experiences of my life. The 49ers rallied back from a 17-0 deficit to punch their ticket to New Orleans, and as I drove home, my ESPN ScoreCenter app let me know that the Maloofs finalized the deal to transfer majority ownership to a Seattle-based group whose intent was relocation to the Grunge Capitol.

Instead I decided on kicking off with an idea that I’ve had for a while now, to have a simple goal: average 1,000 words a day written to get to the lofty goal of 365,000 written in a year—1,000 a day. That may seem like a daunting task at first glance, but I think it can be reasonably done.

Will it all be good? Probably not. This is called My Stupid Sports Opinions, not My Extremely Insightful and Well Thought Out Sports Opinions. The goal of this is merely to write, to put though through keystrokes to web space.

Obviously the major first hurdle is that I’m already 22,000 words behind pace. Well, this isn’t a precise science. This isn’t Twitter, I’m not capped. Hopefully across the pieces remaining this year, I can make up the 22,000. If not, expect some entries padded worse than an eighth grader’s essay on the American Revolution.

With that out of the way, today’s entry is about one simple issue: guts. As the cliché goes, “No Guts, No Glory.” This is also the story of two sets of brothers: The Maloofs and the Harbaughs.

The Maloof brothers inherited an empire from their father; they were successes before they even tried. The Maloof brothers inherited George Maloof, Sr.’s Coors distribution empire and promptly drove the whole thing into the ground. They listened to the people around them and threw all their cash into the Palms casino, which promptly cost them all their money. They sold off their various holdings in order to fund their primary toy, which became their majority holding: The Sacramento Kings.

For years, it has been apparent that they are not fit to run the franchise, especially financially. Since the Kings last made the playoffs in 2006, they have become increasingly conservative and close to the vest with their acquisition of talent in Sacramento. They are concerned only with reaching the cap floor, and not with putting a competitive product on the floor. They were so afraid to overspend their means that it ended up costing them in the end.

Fans left in droves. Ask Kings fans, and their reactions will be the same: love the Kings, hate the Maloofs. This came about due to their inability to display guts, the central theme of this post. Their gutlessness caused them to retract in the face of potential adversity, rather than embrace it and make the best of it.  They were adamant that the team was theirs rather than cutting bait on their final holding, retreating to nurse their wounds, and moving on. Instead they put increasingly terrible products on the floor, flirted with several different cities, backed out of a deal to keep the team in Sacramento and eventually became the villains of the city.

They were adamant for years that they were not going to be selling the Kings; it was their team. The first opportunity to purchase the team was not even given to a Sacramento-based organization. The Maloofs could not even envision a post-Maloof Kings. What if they were suddenly good, because they had ownership that would pay for talent? The losses would be blamed on the Maloofs. They couldn’t have that. They were afraid.

They simply did not have the intestinal fortitude to look within, admit they were wrong, cut bait and move on.  Because of this they are universally reviled in Sacramento and currently on their way out of town. They were too scared about what might happen that they made a deal with a group who has designs on destroying the Sacramento Kings name. They will become the Seattle Supersonics, a team that hasn’t existed in the half decade since the city lost the original Supersonics to Oklahoma City—they subsequently became the Thunder. They took the chicken’s way out; the Kings will cease to exist. They will get a hefty payday and in exchange, there’s a cloak of separation between the organization they ran into the ground and the phoenix rising in Seattle in upcoming years.

The Maloofs had no guts, and subsequently, are on the receiving end of no glory.

Contrast this with Jim and John Harbaugh, the brothers who will face off in the Super Bowl as the head coaches of the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, respectively. They came from simple beginnings; they never had much money, but their parents instilled in them something that cannot be bought: guts. Jim Harbaugh took over a team that had seen a long stretch of mediocrity after their dynastic years in the 1980s and 1990s. When he came to the NFL from Stanford, he was the hot commodity. Everybody wanted Coach Harbaugh. He could have gone to a myriad of teams but he chose the misfits down the road from Stanford and Palo Alto: The San Francisco 49ers.

The rally cry of the 49ers was first uttered by their father, Jack Harbaugh. They understood that every benefit is a blessing. He asked his family, “who’s got it better than us?” His family would respond, “nobody!”
The 49ers had seen years and years of rotating head coaches, coordinators, GMs, and even quarterbacks. Only a few years removed from the 49ers starting JT “Just Touchdowns” O’Sullivan at quarterback, they brought in a former QB who vowed to turn the franchise around. How did he do it? Guts. More on that, later.

Jim’s brother John has been the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens since 2008.  He succeeded Brian Billick who had constructed a winning team in 2006, but that floundered in 2007. John Harbaugh took the reins knowing he could put a great product on the field. He’s done just that; the Ravens are, year in and year out, considered one of the top teams in the AFC.

The coaches taking over floundering organizations isn’t what took guts; most head coaches take over because their predecessor failed to meet expectations. The guts the Harbaughs displayed this year is from unconventional and controversial decision made this year. They each made a change that, if asked, I guarantee most NFL coaches would say they would never do.

Jim Harbaugh switched quarterbacks mid-season, which, except in the case of injury, is unthinkable. He went from the “steady Eddie” of the past season and a half (the much maligned under previous coaches) Alex Smith to the “New Hotness” Colin Kaepernick. John Harbaugh did something even more unthinkable: he fired his Offensive Coordinator, Cam Cameron. Cameron was a “steady Eddie” in his own right. He was steadily feeding the offense a series of terrible, but safe, playcalling.

In the 49ers home tilt (ding!) against the Rams this year, Alex Smith suffered a concussion. He failed his concussion tests headed into their contest the next week against the Chicago Bears. Young Colin Kaepernick, the Turlock Tornado destroyed the Bears and continued the 49ers Curse (more on that in another post).  When Alex Smith was set to come back, conventional wisdom would have given him another opportunity. After all, in the game prior to the Rams game, he was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Who would have the guts to bench that person? Jim Harbaugh. He knew that Colin Kaepernick was his guy. His dual threat of a QB who can run as well as he can throw—two things he does extremely well—was the future of the organization. He had to bench the suddenly popular Alex Smith. Many people, myself included, hated the decision. They thought he was playing for the future of the franchise rather than the present, a present that had seen them reach an NFC Championship game in the same calendar year.

It worked. I was wrong. Colin Kaepernick in the Pistol Formation is extremely dangerous. When he is up for a contract, Kap’s agent only needs to pull roll from two games: the NFC Divisional Game and the NFC Championship Game. These games, one wherein he rode roughshod over the terrible Green Bay defense and one wherein he was down 17-0 on the road, in a super loud dome, and lead a storming comeback to victory IN HIS TENTH START. He showed the poise and confidence of someone in his tenth year, not his tenth game. Jim Harbaugh had guts, and he was right.

John Harbaugh made another gutsy decision that is paying huge dividends; he fired his Offensive Coordinator for years, Cam Cameron. They started off 9-2 on the back of their defense. After dropping 3 games thanks to a stagnant offense, they cut ties with Cam Cameron and promoted their QBs coach to OC. Jim Caldwell had previously overseen the fall of the Peyton Manning Era in Indianapolis.

Very few coaches would fire the man who designs, runs and executes their offense 14 games into a 16 game season. Even fewer are successful. Fewer, even, and without even looking this up, make it to the Super Bowl. John Harbaugh had the guts to roll the dice, and it is paying dividends. Huge dividends.
“Is Joe Flacco Elite?” echoed on every sports news outlet after he claimed he was a top-five QB. He showed he is; he’s thrown 9 touchdowns and no interceptions this offseason, and the Ravens offense is flourishing.

This post has been the stories of two sets of brothers raised two different ways. The Maloofs were raised in the lap of luxury and never taught to fend for themselves. As a result, they were gutless, and they are currently reviled and considered to be terrible ownership. The Harbaughs were raised in the lower-middle class; the sons of a football coach themselves. Their fortitude was forged in iron and they showed resolve in the face of adversity and will face off in the Super Bowl, the ultimate goal for any NFL player or coach.

Sometimes “No Guts, No Glory” has merit. The Maloofs and Harbaughs prove this. Plan accordingly.

- JK

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