Alex Smith, QB, ____?

Earlier this week, news broke that apparently Alex Smith had requested the 49ers release him prior to free agency. This will allow him to go to his choice of teams (who will have him).  This is a huge risk for Smith, who did not receive a lot of fanfare in the open market prior to the 2012 season. Smith, likely, believes that he can get a contract as he now has 1.5+ years of being a serviceable Quarterback. There are 32 teams, so there are 32 possible outcomes for Smith this season. Rather than trying to guess where he is going to go, I am going to group teams together by the likelihood Smith goes there.  Alex Smith wants to go because he wants to be a starter, so this is working under the assumption that wherever he goes, he will start.


For full disclosure, I have read Ian Rappaport’s report that the four front-runners for Alex Smith are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cardinals and the Bills. The funny part is I mostly, independently came to the same solution. That tells you that Ian Rappaport gets paid to do what I do while we watch Chopped.

Also keep in mind that this isn’t a list of QBs I think are better than Alex Smith or worse than Alex Smith. It’s about the likelihood that he ends up on these teams. There are several factors outside of talent on the field that could lead to him ending up on another team’s roster.

Let’s get the “Absolutely Not” out of the way. These are franchises who have their QB face of the franchise or present current QB options that they believe are better than Alex Smith, or QBs that have an extremely bright future, or teams where they have too much currently invested in their QB to move on. Teams in this category get no discussion because the reasons are obvious.

Absolutely Not:
Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins, The Entire NFC South (Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons).

Stranger Things Have Happened:
Chicago Bears: Hear me out, and you have to keep in mind that this is the category that is slightly above “never in a million years.”  There are many people in Chicago who think Jay Cutler has run his course. He is surly with the media and a lot of people don’t like him because of this. There’s a new coach in town and he may be looking to put his own stamp on things. He’s from the Canadian Football League, where mobile quarterbacks have a bit more merit. However, that’s not likely.

Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton has been good, not great in his first couple of years. His issue has been with consistency. Alex Smith over the last couple of years has been maddeningly consistent. There is the added bonus of Smith mentoring Dalton and possibly passing the torch back to Andy.

Detroit Lions: This came close to being in the Absolutely Not territory, but Detroit is firmly in the middle of “cap hell.” They were terrible for several years when rookie contracts for high picks were both huge and long. Throw on Megatron’s contract to Suh & Stafford’s suddenly massive contracts is an issue. It’s a long shot but there’s a slim chance of moving Stafford, drafting a project QB and using Alex Smith as a stop-gap mentor.

San Diego Chargers: Ads with the Lions, the Chargers were the close to being in the “absolutely not” territory. Phillip Rivers is their franchise quarterback. Rather, he was their franchise quarterback. In the last couple of years, he’s lost his ability to throw the ball to the boys in (powder) blue. With a new GM in town, there’s an—albeit slim—chance they move on from Rivers and attempt to install Smith as a “steady Eddie” type quarterback that he has been the last couple of years.

There isn’t much to say about the middle rounds, so I’ll just give a few notes about each team.

Maybe, But Probably Not:
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are a 49ers division rival; their offensive highlights include an atrocious offensive line, a running game that should be called “a handoff for a 3 yard loss” game and… Larry Fitzgerald. It’s unlikely Smith ends up here in a trade or as a free agent.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are comfortable with Tannehill so far, but there is a slim chance they nab Smith and use him as a stop-gap to mentor the sophomore playcaller.

Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder being unable to play in the NFC Wild Card round this year is probably the best thing that could have happened to Christian Ponder. He is a VERY poor man’s Alex Smith and does just enough to make sure they don’t lose. By “just enough” I mean hand off to Peterson. By not playing in the playoffs, he likely bought himself another year for “getting them there” (by handing off to Adrian Peterson).

New York Jets: They owe Mark Sanchez a bajillion dollars and still have to figure out what to do with Tim Tebow. Unless Mark Sanchez dies and they really want to give the 49ers Revis, I don’t see a trade happening. As for Smith going there in free agency… WHO WOULD SIGN WITH THE JETS RIGHT NOW???
San Francisco 49ers: It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that Alex Smith receives no real offers and crawls back to the 49ers on a much more manageable contract for 4-5 a year for a few years to hold a clipboard. Unlikely, but possible.

I Could See It:
Cleveland Browns: Despite being part of the carousel of offensive coordinators that broke Alex Smith in San Francisco, Norv Turner’s new offense in Cleveland may be a good fit for Alex Smith. New Browns Head Coach Rob Chudzinski is considered one of the best play callers in the game. The only question is their “sophomore” quarterback Brandon Weeden, who is only 6 months younger than Smith, is the incumbent.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert is terrible and not a starting quarterback in the NFL. There are no two ways around that. The rumor was that current 49ers OC Greg Roman would make the move to lead the Jaguars, and that Alex Smith would come with him. Given how terrible Gabbert is, Alex Smith would be a huge upgrade.

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker is exciting, but erratic. He needs a mentor that isn’t Matt Hasselbeck because that experience isn’t working. This is another stop-gap like with Ryan Tannehill. Smith would do enough to make the offense run, but he won’t turn them into contenders. Mostly because they’re terrible.
Oakland Raiders: Okay hear me out! Alex Smith is a huge fan of the bay area, and Carson Palmer is old and broken. His end of year stats look… okay… but that is because he is the king of junk time. If Darren McFadden can get his head on straight, the running game will do fine. Pair that with the receiving skills of Marcel Reese, who can do something with Smith’s inevitable check-down, then you may have something.

The Likely Suspects:
Buffalo Bills: They only team in New York is sick of the Fitzmagic and want someone they can depend on a bit more. Ryan Fitzpatrick makes too many mistakes on too many chances. It will upset chronically upset wide receiver Stevie Johnson, but with news today that Johnson may move to the slot in some sets and be used all over the field, he can probably stay happy with some short-to-intermediate routes and balls thrown his way. Smith will move to the 49ers circa 2010, with a relatively strong defense and a potentially monstrous running game. The Bills would be my favorite to get Smith, if it wasn’t for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s massive contract.
Kansas City Chiefs: My desired spot for Alex Smith to land! He would be paired with a coach in Andy Reid who can make some junk QBs look decent—cough, Kelvin Kolb, cough. Throw in one of the best running backs in the game and my undying, unreasonable love for Dexter McCluster, and I think Alex Smith will do great here. They are sick of Matt Cassel, and Alex Smith is everything they hoped Matt Cassel could have been when they signed him. It’s time for them to move on, and it is getting increasingly likely that taking a quarterback with the first overall pick will be a foolish maneuver for the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly’s offense needs a smart quarterback who is extremely accurate with short to medium passes and who can run if needed, but doesn’t look to do so. Sound familiar? The Michael Vick Experience is over in Philadelphia. He’s old and broken, and that won’t work when your game is predicated on speed.

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