Preliminary Fantasy QB Rankings 1-5

One of the things I wanted to do with MSSO is discuss a bit of my fantasy sports thought process; whether for better or for worse. I consume quite a bit of media on the topic and I’ve come to realize that everybody is just guessing at this nonsense. Granted, some are better than others, but everybody is just trying to take data from prior years and apply it to the future. It’s prediction, but it’s also guessing. 

With the NFL draft over, and teams basically how they will be going into the 2013 season, I’ve started to look at creating my own ranking system, rather than blindly going off of another person’s list. Sure, that other person is the expert, but that’s a title. They have one list of dudes on the internet, and so do I. Without further ado, I present my top 5 quarterbacks of 2013.  It was initially going to be top 10 but I was a bit verbose. I am trying to tighten up the word count to make the articles a bit easier to read going forward.

Disclaimer: All my rankings are based on who I would rather have. When things start to get dicey (see 31-40, yes, I have 40 ranked), it starts to be a matter of talent vs. opportunity. Blaine Gabbert is set to be the starter going into the season, but Chad Henne is the better player and is going to usurp Gabbert, so Henne is ranked higher.

 

Tier 1. The Best of the Best of the Best, Sir. With Honors.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The NFL’s biggest payday of the 2013 paydays tops the list of fantasy QBs for me. He lost a big target with Greg Jennings going to Minnesota, but Jennings was basically an afterthought to this team last year. Jennings missed significant time with injury, and current targets James Jones and Randall Cobb stepped up in huge ways.
   
   The Packers added Eddie Lacy and Jonathon Franklin this offseason via the draft to finally, FINALLY, give them a non-godawful option at running back. There are others who are thinking that this will cause them to rely on the run more so than in the past. The only problem with this is that the Packers were in the middle third of the league when it came to running the ball last year.  They already ran the ball significantly last year, and they aren’t going to be taking the ball out Rodgers’ hands.
   
   Outside of the passing game, Rodgers adds to the rushing game, contributing about 250 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns a year to his already gaudy passing totals. This is one if the examples of something that may not necessarily make someone a better NFL quarterback, but does make them a better fantasy quarterback.  Rodgers’ legs make him the #1 fantasy option above three other QBs who are just as good as Rodgers, but less mobile.
   
   
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees is getting his head coach back in Sean Payton’s return from his Bountygate suspension. And last time I checked, he’s still Drew Brees. Jimmy Graham is still Jimmy Graham. Marques Colston is still Marques Colston. Darren Sproles is getting up there, hitting the RUNNINGBACK CLIFF of 30 years old. Sproles, however, doesn’t get the same burn as regular RBs. He doesn’t get popped by big lineman and middle linebackers. He’s catching the ball in space and playmaking; getting hit by smaller OLBs and DBs.  This should extend his shelf life a bit.
   
   There isn’t much to say about Drew Brees. The 2-3-4 guys are all bunched together below Aaron Rodgers and above the #5 QB. The only question is order. The pie is already cut up for the Saints offense, and it does nothing if not click. I like
   
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos – Last year, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker were all top-fifteen Wide Receivers. This year, they are all toys for Peyton Manning. Along with rookie Montee Ball, the Broncos already great offense is getting even better. The question for all those players is how the pie gets cut up. There will definitely be more runs and more potent runs. There will likely be more offense plays called, which means that the offensive pie will likely get bigger.
   
   Peyton isn’t getting any younger, and there are already concerns about his deep ball. Luckily most of Peyton Manning is what’s going on between his ears. He’s still, in my mind, the smartest QB in the NFL and he’ll be manning (heh.) one of the more potent offenses. He’s great, the offense is great. There isn’t a lot to say here. I liked Brees more than Manning, and Brady less. This is not reflective of Manning, but rather, reflective of Brees and Brady.
   
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots – You can’t bet against a Brady/Belichick offense, but this one is riding into the year with the most question marks on record. There isn’t a single pass catcher that doesn’t come with an issue this year. Danny Amendola is in a new, admittedly difficult system, Aaron Hernandez is hurt (again), Rob Gronkowski is hurt (still), Julian Edelman is hurt (of course) and their rookies are, well… rookies. How they will do is anyone’s guess right now.
   
   Granted, that can all be wiped clean because of the guy at the helm. Tom Brady is the model of greatness for NFL QBs in the 2000s, and into the 2010s.  He and Belichick have built a great system that has tons of guys fade in and out with various levels of success. They will run the ball more this year, which will take some pressure off Brady, but he’ll put up another Tom Brady season.  That was top-3 last year, but I really feel like this year is just a step behind Manning the Greater.
   
   I originally had Brady third, but as I was writing up the offense, I just couldn’t justify putting him over Peyton. I also couldn’t put him below the three guys below, mostly due to their inexperience and reliance on their legs.
   
   Tier 2: You Can Run, But Defenses Can’t Hide
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers – There may be a bit of homerism here putting Kaepernick at the top of these run/pass quarterbacks. “Where’s Tim Tebow?” you may ask. If you asked that, get out. OUT. Kaepernick/Cam/Wilson suffer from the same grouping as the three guys above. They all do pretty much the same thing and have the same opportunities placed in front of them.
   
   The biggest issues facing these three running QBs is the league figuring out the Read Option. I am assuming that the league pulls this off, and that the running will not come from trickery, but from designed run plays and broken plays. I think Kaepernick has the best speed out of all of these guys. Cam is known as a big bruiser, but if you’ve seen pictures of Kap shirtless, he isn’t exactly svelte.
   
   I also think that Kaepernick has the best system for his success as well as the best ability to be a “traditional” quarterback. He showed this in the NFC Championship Game last year against the Falcons. He was forced to stay behind the line of scrimmage and beat them with his arm.  Add to this a more robust receiving corps than Cam and Wilson can boast combined and the most creative OC in football, I think that this is Kaepernick’s true coming out party. Given where you can get him, I’m planning on targeting him in every single draft. And you should too.
   

So there you have it, quarterbacks one through five for next year. Not a lot of surprises, except I really feel like Kaepernick is going to take off next year in his first full season. Aaron Rodgers maintains his no-brainer top spot, followed by Brees, then Peyton, then Brady.

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