If you read my last post, you know that I am currently drafting in a “slow mock draft.” While most mock drafts are fast and furious, giving owners less than 5 minutes to pick their next pick, slow drafts give players time to think through options. Picks are usually due within 24 hours, but are generally turned in much faster than that. Drafts completed this way are usually mock drafts. Since the season is months away, there is no hurry for this draft to be finished. As with all slow drafts, circumstances have changed. The person who drafted 49ers WR Michael Crabtree suddenly looks very silly. I took advantage of the circumstances by picking up Vernon Davis earlier than I would have if this draft had been completed in one day. The picks are fluid with circumstances.
I had the third overall pick in the first round, giving me the tenth pick in round two, 22nd overall. My general strategy is to go RB-RB with my first two picks, depending on what talent falls to me. If I can get Calvin Johnson 22nd overall, I’ll take my luck with whatever RB gets back to me in the third round, for example. Reminder that this is a 12-team half-point-per-reception league. Before me in round two, the following players went:
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago
Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans
Stevan Ridley, RB, New England
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay
Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta
At the 22nd overall pick, I was looking at a few options, DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas; Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville; Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit and Drew Brees, QB.
There are pros and cons to each pick, and I was looking here at a running back, given my strategy. Drew Brees falling as far as he did could have been a boon to my team, but there is just way too much QB talent falling way too far. While I flirted with the idea of going after Brees and his annual bajillion yards and dozens of touchdowns, I felt like I would be doing myself a disservice. Because of that, I turned my attention to the three running backs available to me there.
DeMarco Murray
Murray showed a couple of years ago that he can be an explosive fantasy contributor when he is on the field. Taking over for an injured Felix Jones, Murray became the buzz of the fantasy world when, in his first time getting more than 15 touches, he went off for 253 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Last year, however, was a different story. Injuries kept Murray off the field, and when he was on the field, he wasn’t nearly as impressive. He was wildly inconsistent, posting consecutive weeks of 44, 38, 24, 93 & 83 yards. The issue with Murray is also the Dallas offense, he only had 6 total rushing touchdowns in two years (23 games). Murray can be an explosive playmaker when healthy. The key term there is “when healthy.” Murray’s health and his inconsistency lead me to believe that while he could be great, I’m comfortable with him being great for someone else.
Maurice Jones-Drew
MJD has perennially been a top-5 running back and his fall is solely due to his injury issues from last season. Someone will be very happy with MJD manning their RB2 slot for them this year, or very upset they took the gamble on MJD. My philosophy with your first two picks is that you should not be taking gambles or flyers with these two picks. They should be the foundation of your team. While current reports are that MJD is going to be setup to return for training camp just in time, I fear what could happen in the next few months. Given, this draft is happening now, and a lot can happen (like him punching out a security guard) before the season starts. As time goes along, he could, and probably will, move up the draft board. The problem is that a draft in May is that one would be risk-averse, and MJD is the perfect example of this fact. He could be amazing, but I am not currently willing to take that risk.
Reggie Bush
Bush’s consideration here is an example of knowing your league’s rules when considering who should be drafted at what position. Reggie Bush, in a standard format, is likely a third-round pick. In the half-point PPR league format, he gets a boost. Bush in Miami and New Orleans benefited from this format, and I feel like Detroit will give him a massive boost in value. The Lions need to get their RB involved even more, and with nothing alongside Calvin Johnson. Detroit’s passing game is prolific, and Bush is likely to be Matthew Stafford’s safety blanket in the few instances that he can’t throw it into quadruple coverage to Megatron. Reggie Bush doesn’t have the highest upside of the three, but he definitely has the highest floor.
So there you have it. There are three running backs available here to me that are considered to be among the smart choices at the position. While MJD and Murray show that they have massive upside, they both are also saddled with pretty significant question marks. Murray has shown tremendous talent but hasn’t really been able to stay on the field consistently, and MJD is coming off of a foot injury that ended his 2013 campaign.
In the end, I went with Reggie Bush, giving me a one-two RB punch of Doug Martin and Bush. I’ll be honest, the potential downside of MJD and/or Murray scared me too much to take them here. I would say that if either of them were available to me in the early third, I probably could have pulled the trigger. The only problem is that I just fear their significant downsides more than I have a ton of confidence in Bush’s upside. Having fulfilled my RB-RB startup goal for my first two picks, I turned my attention to another position in round three…
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