Yes, on a day where the Battle of the Bay and the Sharks lose in the Stanley Cup playoffs, I’m making three posts about a sport that won’t be relevant for another 99 days. Last week, the 49ers’ young, divisive and diva-esque Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon. He has already had successful surgery; Head Coach Jim Harbaugh (very optimistically) hopes to have Crabtree back for the stretch run and the playoffs. Some people point at Terrell Suggs and his return from Achilles tear last season. However, Suggs’ gameday assignments mean he doesn’t have the same strain on his Achilles as Crabtree. As a pass rusher, Suggs moved essentially in a straight line and was not responsible for the same cutting and change-of-direction motion Crabtree would be responsible for as a Wide Receiver.
Personally, I think Crabtree is done for the year. The 49ers are a franchise that definitely take the long-view with their players. AJ Jenkins was drafted and essentially red-shirted last year; they believed in his development rather than trying to force him to contribute right away. In fact, last year only one 49ers rookie, LaMichael James, made any sort of impact on the roster. This was by design. The other rookies were either hurt or not ready. James was only thrust onto the field via injury to Kendall Hunter. While Crabtree could possibly return, I believe that Harbaalke will determine that he should not return, as it is in the best interest of both Crabtree and the 49ers organization to have him wait.
What next, then? How do the 49ers adapt, who benefits, who takes a step back?
Beneficiaries: Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, The Running Game
Over the past decade, the 49ers’ offense has had essentially one hallmark: the run. With Colin Kaepernick’s coming out party, there was a renewed interest in the passing game. Coming into this year, the 49ers have a lot of question mark at receivers. The Boldin trade makes the 49ers front office look like bona fide geniuses, as headed into the season, “Kyle Williams, WR1,” would have dumped the 49ers from Super Bowl contenders to fringy playoff candidates. Truthfully, the Niners have a very deep core of players: Anquan Boldin could be a #1 receiver on some teams, and Kyle Williams, AJ Jenkins, Ricardo Lockette, Mario Manningham and Quentin Patton would be serviceable #2-4 players in most systems. The only problem is that that entire group is a mix of unproven young guns and guys with one working knee. While these young guys will definitely benefit, there isn’t one person who has arisen yet to definitively benefit among that group. The passes have to go somewhere, so there is no reason why they should not go to Vernon Davis’s solid hands or the suddenly old-man-hands of Anquan Boldin.
The running game will definitely benefit, as the 49ers were approaching this season with an eye towards improved balance between run and pass. With the continued solid play of Frank Gore, the dynamic playmaking of LaMichael James and the return of Kendall Hunter, the 49ers have a beast of a monster at running back to take full advantage of this situation.
Losers: Colin Kaepernick, Greg Roman
Without Crabtree, Kaepernick is missing a massive release valve and safety blanket. After taking over as full-time QB last season, Kaepernick had a love-affair with Crabtree, targeting him most and reaping the benefits of throwing it up to one of the better young WRs in the game. This year, the safety blanket role is likely to be held by some combination of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. There likely won’t be the same massive YAC by these two as there was by Crabtree. He did a ton for Kaepernick last year and his loss will be sorely missed.
The second big loser in this is Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman. Roman commanded one of the most creative offenses in the NFL last year, but his creativity was greatly predicated on the playmaking skills of Crabtree. With a whole different set of skills at WR1, Roman will need to learn to adapt his playcalling scheme to match the talent on the field. The 49ers offense will likely not live up to the pre-season hype thrust upon him prior to the Crabtree injury; as such, it is likely that Roman will be (unduly) blamed and his future career in the NFL could be hampered.
Michael Crabtree will be sorely missed by the 49ers franchise. He was their #1 receiver and in a team filled to the brim with All-Pro talent, he had the most promising of futures. Early reports indicate that Crabtree should be back around November or December of this year, but I would exercise caution in brining back Crabtree. A mis-cut or mis-step on a fully-torn Achiless could have disastrous effects on the long-term prognosis for Crabtree’s career. As previously stated, however, I firmly believe that Harbaugh and Baalke are smarter than this and have several contingency plans in place to ensure the 49ers are contenders this year and beyond.
The Crabtree injury will definitely change the overall outlook, projection and complexion of the 2103 49ers. They are losing their #1 receiver; a #1 receiver who was set to breakout in a newly pass-focused system. While this will definitely be a factor, I truly believe that this will not derail the 49ers season.
2014 and beyond—Harbaalke has made it a habit of having players believe in them. In the long-term viability of the franchise, this may have been a good scenario. If Crabtree doesn’t come back this season (and I believe he won’t; the team won’t rush a player back at risk of re-injury), then the 49ers have to sit down and determine Crabtree’s value to resign him. He has been on a definite uptick and the franchise could save some money by rolling the dice and taking the risk now on future injury. Personally, this is the best option for them at Wide Receiver in the near future.
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