Love to the Kings? Hate for the Kings!

The Kings have announced that they are willing to throw their hat into the Kevin Love Sweepstakes, and that they are willing to do it with no promise that Love will re-sign with the squad after the 2014-15 season. There’s already quite a bit of discussion on this across a ton of platforms. Sactown Royalty weighed in in favor of the Kings trading for Love. I, however, don’t think that this is the best move for the Kings. I actually don’t like it for a lot of reasons, but we’ll go through them individually.

           The Haul
Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA. According to ESPN’s PER (player efficiency rating) and EWA (estimated wins added), Love was third in the NBA behind a couple guys playing in the Western & Eastern Conference Finals (Kevin Durant & LeBron James, respectively). A player of this caliber doesn’t come up for trade very often. The last, biggest name big man that was traded was Chris Bosh in his sign & trade in 2010. Bosh was traded for two first-round picks from the Raptors to the Heat. We can start with that as a guideline for a likely package for Kevin Love.

First off, Kevin Love is better than Chris Bosh was. He is one of the best rebounding, shooting and passing big men in the league. Chris Bosh is no slouch but Kevin Love is eerily reminiscent of an extremly souped-up version of a former Kings’ big man in Brad Miller. That means it is likely that his price tag would be higher than Chris Bosh’s two first-rounders.

The second thing to consider with that deal is that Love is unlikely to come over in a sign and trade; the Kings already made it clear that they will trade for him without this stipulation. Given that Love is primed to be the most sought-after free agent of 2015. He can get a max-contract wherever he goes; he would be foolish to do a sign & trade before being able to gauge his market in 2015. That, to me, would lower the potential asking price for Kevin Love.

The third consideration for the haul would be that the Kings are straight up not very good. The Heat were primed to become World Champs two out of the three years Bosh was there (and counting); the Kings’ first round pick is likely to be much more valuable than the two the Heat gave up for Bosh. I, and I assume Pete D’Allesandro agrees, don’t think that a potential one-year rental of Kevin Love is worth a first-round pick in two drafts.

Where does that leave us? The 2014 #8 pick, which the Kings have already basically committed to trading, probably a second rounder this year or next and a player. But who? You have to look at who is available for the Kings to trade that is worth it for the Timberwolves. Rudy Gay? Ben McLemore? Sign & trade for Isaiah Thomas? Jason Thompson’s big contract (please please please)? DeMarcus Cousins is off the table. I would hang up immediately if I was PDA and the Wolves posited that trade. The Wolves aren’t bringing back Derrick Williams when they traded him for loose change.

Gay’s contract is too huge, though it matches up well for a rental as it’s a one-year player option. I doubt the Timberwolves would move the last year of Kevin Love for the last year of Rudy Gay, especially since the Kings would try to “sweeten” the deal with Jason Thompson as well. This trade would leave Sacramento, again, with a massive black hole at Small Forward. Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t work well from Minnesota’s perspective, unless the Wolves are ready to pull the plug on the Ricky Rubio Experiment. That leaves us with Ben McLemore. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but ended on a strong note, dropping a career-high 31 points on 20 shots. Certainly, the last time we saw McLemore he was quite impressive. His rookie season had a great load of ups & downs, but I personally think his career will be more ups than anything else.

Are the Kings willing to part with all that for a rental? Especially when the team needs a lot more to be competitive. If Love commits to a multi-year deal with Sacramento, you can bet that second becomes another first and potentially another player. All to land someone who isn’t really a fit with the Kings roster.

      The Fit
There’s a relatively new statistic called “Usage,” and I won’t bore you with how it’s calculated. In short, however, it basically explains how much a player “uses” his time on the court. Basically, who dominates the ball on offense. This can be skewed for players who don’t play a ton while dominating the ball when the come in—Jimmer Fredette is one of the league leaders for 2013-14. It’s basically a question of who needs to have the ball in their hands. Kevin Love was ninth last year among players with at least 25 minutes per game. That’s not a huge deal, he was the centerpiece of the Timberwolves. He’s mashed in between Kyrie Irving and John Wall.

Here’s the problem: DeMarcus Cousins is third, Isaiah Thomas is eighteenth and Rudy Gay is twenty-fourth on that list (at least 25 MPG). Those three guys all averaged over 20 PPG and accounted for over 3000 of the team’s ~6500 shots taken last season (the actual numbers come out to just about 48%). Trying to throw Kevin Love into the mix adds another quality name and a quality talent, but is an extremely inefficient use of resources.

In addition to the usage argument, Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay & DeMarcus Cousins all get knocked for their terrible defense. Guess who else gets knocked for his terrible defense? Kevin Love. The Kings may try to outscore and outshoot the opposing team, but if the top four guys on your squad play next to no defense? That’s a recipe for absolute disaster.

      The Inflexibility
So the Kings end up with Kevin Love. 2014 comes and goes and they narrowly miss the playoffs. They get nothing out of it, as the TWolves have at least the Kings 2014 pick (#8), the 2013 pick (Ben McLemore) and potentially their remaining 2011 pick (Isaiah Thomas) and the 2015 pick. How do we spend next offseason? Waiting to see if Love resigns with us. Sacramento also may have a big bill coming for Rudy Gay (albeit, given the new CBA, probably smaller than what the Kings already pay him). Kevin Love will get a max contract. DeMarcus Cousins already has a max contract. Max contracts only really work when you can surround them with under market value players (like the Heat have) and young/cheap contracts.

The Kings would trade almost all of their young players (excepting Ray McCallum) to obtain Kevin Love. So the Kings end up with Kevin Love and no real way to fill in around him.  This is a terrible idea for the Kings’ future to bring in a player that needs the ball as much or more than three players already on the team.

So what, then? The Kings don’t bring in Kevin Love. How do they get better? Well, by not trying to bring in just big names. Bring in a couple defensive stalwarts, one on the wing and one on the block and build from there. Bringing in Kevin Love would make a huge splash and would placate the less-informed fanbase, but it would be a disastrous turn of events for the fledgling ownership group.

On the 49ers' Draft Priorities

Who will get the red #1 jersey this year? Chances are, it will be another defensive back.

The first round of the NFL draft will be over just around 24 hours from now. This is touted as one of the deepest and most talented drafts in a long while. Just today, I listened to Todd McShay and Mel “Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd” Kiper argue about whether 5 or 8 of the players in this draft are better than any given player in last year’s draft. With the 49ers having a lot of big contracts coming up, this draft and the cost-controlled players that come out of it could be make-or-break for the squad in the next few years. With six picks in the top-100, the Niners have the firepower to basically pick and choose where they want to get who they want. Here's, in my opinion, their biggest priorities, in descending order.

1. Cornerback – With the mass exodus of 49ers DBs (Donte Whitner is a Brown and Tarrell Brown & Carlos Rogers are Raiders), the 49ers are left with a massive hole in their secondary. They plugged the Whitner vacancy with free agent signing Antoine Bethea (more on that later). The Niners currently have Tramaine Brock, Chris Culliver (who didn’t play in 2013 and has had off-field issues), 2014 Harbaugh Reclamation Project (Chris Cook), Eric Wright, Perrish Cox (who is mostly special teams), Darryl Morris (who is all special teams) and something called a Dax Swanson.
   
   It’s bleak for the Niners at Cornerback. Luckily Brock came on big last year and Culliver was a starting corner before his offseason injury before last season. There is some hope there. Ideally, however, Eric Wright and Cook battle to be your fourth CB and Cox, Morris & Swanson never see the field.
   
   Ideally, and for completely different reasons, Perrish Cox doesn’t even make the team this year.
   
   
2. Wide Receiver – To anyone who watched the team struggle to fart out a passing game without Michael Crabtree last year, this is a no-brainer. While Quinton Patton’s return will definitely bolster the corps, I would definitely expect the Niners to have a CB and a WR before the first two rounds are done (as an aside, I fully expect them to package a second and a third together at least once to move up to have two picks between 30 and 45). This is the right draft to need a WR, as numerous in this draft are projected to be productive NFL players. To prevent the squad from crashing and burning on offense if there is an injury, they will need to add another wide receiver. Given that the Niners’ best deep threat is TE Vernon Davis, you would expect them to add a burner here.
   
   Add to the mix that the 49ers may not have Crabtree’s services in 2015, and the front office’s always forward-looking strategy, it’s basically a no-brainer that the Niners are going to walk away from day two (or maybe even day one) with a WR.
   
   In writing this, I literally forgot the Niners resigned Brandon Lloyd and still had Jon Baldwin. I would be shocked if Baldwin was active for more than a handful of games (pending injuries). Lloyd wasn’t even in the league last year, so I can’t really expect much from him.
   
   
3. Outside Linebacker – Behind Ahmad Brooks, who would be touted as one of the best defensive players on any other squad (but who is overshadowed by the entire rest of the LB corps), the Niners have nothing but question marks at the OLB position. Aldon Smith is an extremely talented head case who is struggling mightily with substance abuse problems (which will likely lead to a hefty suspension thanks to an incident in LAX last month). Behind him is Dan Skuta, who played well last year when called upon, but is mostly a special teams ace & second-year LB Corey Lemonier. I liked Lemonier last year coming out of Auburn, but he didn’t contribute a ton last year (a safety, a sack, 4 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 15 tackles). Finally, according to CBSSports.com, the Niners still have Darius Fleming. I was a big fan of Fleming when he was drafted, but all the poor guy does is tear his ACL.
   
   
4. Offensive Line – But Jeff, you say, the offensive line is arguably the strongest unit on the 49ers! Was arguably the strongest, and may be quickly falling apart. The 49ers allowed Jon Goodwin to retire by not returning his phone calls, and are turning to Joe Looney, Daniel Kilgore or whoever they end up getting in the middle rounds this year. Also of concern for the 49ers’ offensive line is the future of Left Guard Mike Iupati. He, like the aforementioned Michael Crabtree and QB Colin Kaepernick, are all in the final year of their rookie deals, and all are priority resigns.
   
   I don’t have faith that Iupati will be back in the red and gold in 2015. By tying up cash in Antoine Bethea and trading for the troubled Jonathon Martin, it shows that the 49ers’ front office has already partially moved on from the massive mauler. You want to get as many darts as possible to get one to hit; I fully expect Baalke to throw one at a Guard or Center, since if one works out, Looney & Kilgore could possibly fill the other.
   
   Offensive lines only get better with consistency and practice, so getting an offensive lineman this year to potentially start next year would be a good call.
   
   
5. Inside Linebacker – Right now, the Niners will likely only have All-Pro Linebacker NaVorro Bowman for about half the season as he is currently recovering from, and I believe this is the technical, medical term, “a destroyed knee.” Right now the Niners are set to start one of either Michael Wilhoite or Nick Moody next to Patrick Willis for about half the season. Much like with outside linebacker, the lack of depth at the inside linebacker positions could cause problems for the Niners if they don’t address it in the draft.
   
   
6. Defensive End – There’s no way around it: Justin Smith is an old man. He’ll be 35 before the bye & while his play seems to defy aging, this may well be the cowboy’s last ride. While the Niners are more than set at the other DE position with Ray McDonald, who is in the “awesome defensive player overshadowed by his peers” club with Ahmad Brooks, they’ll need to get some depth, and fast. They’re hoping that Smith’s replacement is already on the squad in the form of Tank Carradine. Behind Carradine, however, is Tony Jerod-Eddie, who is better suited as an interior defensive lineman and a “beautiful man” who is still learning the game in Lawrence Okoye. The Niners may end up with another D-End in this draft, given their litany of picks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed on the position all together.
   
   
7. Defensive Tackle – Tony Jerod-Eddie is promising, and Glenn Dorsey showed that he could have renewed life after busting out of the Chiefs system. Demarcus Dobbs filled in nicely last year, but he is better suited as a backup lineman. Starting DT Ian Williams will make his return from a broken ankle suffered from a cheap hit cutback block Week Two in Seattle. It’s unknown how well he can do, but the Niners can probably run through 2014 with their stable of DTs.
   
   
8. Quarterback – The Niners have Blaine Gabbert. ‘Nuff Said. They’re set. Moving on.
   
   Oh wait, Blaine Gabbert sucks? Whoa there, motherf… Okay, well let’s try this again.
   
   Colin Kaepernick wants big money, and the Niners want to give him big money, but not as big. I fully expect Kaepernick and the Niners to work something out next off-season, given that the cap is expected to skyrocket. Out of the big three names that are expected to get paid next year, I fully expect Kaepernick to be the highest priority. I put QB above the next few positions because the Niners desperately need to groom a backup/contingency plan in case Kaepernick bolts for greener pastures. Gabbert is nothing but a stop-gap and McBLT may never see an NFL field.
   
   If only we still had B.J. Daniels…
   
   
9. Safety – Antoine Bethea signed a multi-year deal this off-season, and Eric Reid is coming off a Pro Bowl season, and the Niners are very much hoping that Bethea’s last year in Indy was a fluke. Hopefully Bethea can return to his pre-2013 form. He rated very highly on PFF for his career, except for last year. Chances are, a bounce back is in order. Harbaugh & Co. are definitely banking on that in 2014. If that isn’t the case, this is likely a position to be addressed in 2015. The Niners lack depth at Safety, but this is a problem that most teams have.
   
   
10. Tight End – Vernon Davis is one of the best Tight Ends in the league, and is one of the most important parts of the team. He’s getting up there in age, but he is a freak athlete and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Last year’s second-round pick, Vance McDonald, has had a year to grow and flourish in this offense. Garrett Celek & Derrick Carrier are perfectly suitable third and fourth Tight Ends. The Niners will be fine at this position, but may look to draft a Tight End in 2015 or 2016, depending on how McDonald develops. They basically do not need to draft a Tight End this year, nor the #11 position.
    
    
11. Running Back – If you include Fullback Bruce Miller as a goal-line back, the 49ers have a complete stable of backs. It feels like they have every RB archetype, too. The solid, aging veteran (Frank Gore), the reliable backup (Kendall Hunter), the heir apparent to the throne (Marcus Lattimore) and the change of pace/scatback/Darren Sproles type (LaMichael James). They lost Anthony Dixon to Buffalo in free agency, so they may be looking to add another big body back with Miller. The thing about big, beefy RBs who can fall forward for a few yards is that they are a dime a dozen in the NFL. This should be the 49ers’ lowest priority except Special Teams.
    
    
12. Special Teamers – Don’t draft a special teamer, especially when you have Andy Lee & Phil Dawson.

Well there you have it. I’m not going to feign to know which players the Niners should be targeting at which positions. This is mostly a fool’s errand, given that every team looks at every player differently. Double so for a front office run by Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.

Whatever happens this weekend, remember one thing. In Harbaalke We Trust.

Whats The Deal With Hunter Pence?

He’s not a hunter, and he’s not a pence. What’s the deal?

This off-season, Hunter Pence signed a five-year; $90 million contract to roam spacious right field in AT&T Park for the foreseeable future. Since signing that contract, Pence has 8 hits in 57 plate appearances. His .246 OBP is nearly 100 points lower than his career average of .338. Not a world-killing OBP, but good nonetheless. What’s the source of the problem? Is it like Belt, trying to whack it over the wall leading to bad hits? Is it impatience? Is it sheer bad luck? I’ll explore the problems plaguing Hunter Pence early in the season.

I’ll admit, I went in with a little bias. I assumed Pence was striking out a ton and failing to take any walks, all while hacking at the ball. It’s been frustrating watching Pence (who was one of my favorite players when he was with the Astros) be so ineffective early in the year. Unfortunately for my eye test, but fortunately for Pence, neither of those is true.  Hunter Pence has a career walk rate of 7.4% and a K rate of 18.3% (for a career 0.4 BB/K ratio). So far this season, Pence is actually more patient than he’s been in his career. He has an 8.8% walk rate, and a 17.5% K rate; these is a rough 0.50 ratio, and if this pace holds up, it would be his best such ratio since he had a 0.53 rate in Houston in 2009. So it isn’t that Pence is having a bad time at the plate, he’s actually having a good time taking walks and avoiding strikeouts (for Hunter Pence).

He’s also being patient. He’s #59 in pitches per plate appearance at 3.75 P/PA. While this hasn’t translated into hits, it shows that Pence isn’t just getting up there and hacking at the first thing that comes his way. Interestingly enough, I wrote the first paragraph before doing the research. This is an apology to Brandon Belt. Since Belt is getting a ton of strikeouts and not many walks, I assumed he wasn’t getting a ton of pitches per plate appearance. I was wrong. Belt’s in the top 40 (#38) at P/PA. I am so sorry Brandon, please forgive me. While Pence seems to be making good decisions at the plate, is he connecting? His swings outside the zone are up slightly, and his swing percentage in the zone is down like mad (13% lower than his career average). This, to me, says he’s either getting squeezed or having trouble seeing which balls he should be swinging at or which balls he should be taking. Overall, his contact rate is almost exactly in line with his career average. Pence may not be seeing the ball that well right now, and this could be contributing to his low batting average. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. He doesn’t seem to be hacking wildly (compared to his career norm).

A lack of patience & wild hacking don’t seem to be Pence’s problem thus far this year. Then what is it? It’s my old friend BABIP. BABIP, in short, is a measure of how lucky or unlucky a player is getting with his hits. It stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play, and the “luckiness” of the stat can be described in two different scenarios:

(1)    A weak dribbler that rolls up the line but never goes foul; this is a hit. Should it be a hit? Probably not. But it is.

(2)    A line drive hit on a rope that goes straight to the first baseman; this is an out. Should it be an out? Probably not. But it is.

Those are the two extremes that drive BABIP. All you can do is put the bat on the ball; unless you hit it over a wall (any wall, really, including those in foul territory, a ton of factors are outside your control. So far this year, those factors have conspired against Hunter Pence.

Pence’s BABIP sits at a cool .175, meaning that 83.5% of Pence’s hit balls that ended up in play are going for outs. The league average is around 70%. That seems like it’s some really nasty bad luck for Pence (who sports a career .317 BABIP), but he doesn’t seem to be getting good wood on the ball. His line drive rate has plummeted and it seems to have been replaced by useless old popups. This would account for the fact that his HR/FB ratio has also crashed to the earth—it’s hard to hit homeruns when just about one out of every 5 or 6 balls you put in play are harmless pop outs. Luckily, Pence is a professional hitter and knows how to play the game of baseball.  Pence’s luck will come around as he gets better wood on the ball (hopefully by rethinking his approach, given that he seems to not be seeing the ball very well).

All in all, after looking at the factors behind Pence’s dip in production, I’m not worried. Pence is notoriously streaky, and the Giants have played well despite Pence not doing too hot. Hopefully he’ll start to pick it up soon and we can get Ol’ Crazy Eyes back.

Throwing A Wet Blanket on Brandon Belt

As the second weekend of baseball winds down, Brandon Belt stands tied with Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez for the most home runs in baseball with 5. Now Trumbo, thanks to the Australia series, has done it in more games, but the three of them are the home run leaders right now. By all accounts, Belt is a lock to hit 25 home runs, and maybe even more. People are buzzing about Belt’s power, but maybe they should pump the brakes a little bit on Brandon Belt. There are a few reasons why we should probably temper our expectations for Mr. Belt. His peripherals, the park factor and the nature of his home runs lead me to believe that this early-season surge may add a dinger or two to his year-end total, but people calling for a 30+ home run year may be slightly disappointed. I anticipated a breakout for Belt, but to somewhere in the 22-25 home run range. He just happened to get a big bunch of those out of the way early on.

First, his peripherals. Belt has taken one walk this year in 49 plate appearances. One. Compare that to his 14 strikeouts this year and you can see that Belt is going up there lacking his trademark patience at the plate (he has a career 23.2 walk rate, meaning he gets a walk between every 4 and 5 plate appearances) in favor of trying to hit balls out. This rate is completely unsustainable, and there are only a handful of people in the league with as many strikeouts as belt with one or fewer walks:

Chris Johnson, Khris Davis, Everth Cabrera, BJ Upton, Josh Donaldson & Brad Miller

None of these players really profile out as superb hitters, especially Upton. Miller is just learning the league and Johnson is notoriously bad at taking walks. Krush Davis’s big knock was that he flat out cannot take a walk to save his life. When you look at the K/BB ratio, Belt is not in good company.  I know what you can say to this, and that is “small sample size!” Well my question to you is: what makes this small sample size statistic different than Belt’s ISO that is over 100 points higher than his career average, or the fact that one out of every three of his fly balls went over the wall. While Belt’s output thus far has been impressive, it’s been created by an unsustainable approach at the plate.

Second, Brandon Belt plays in one of the most notoriously spacious ballparks in baseball. Ask Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Crawford, a home run that is a home run in nearly every park isn’t a home run in AT&T Park. Bumgarner hit a shot to the warning track and Crawford hit a massive shot to Triples Alley, neither of which left the yard. Both would have been out in most ballparks, but AT&T isn’t most ballparks. In every year since 2011, AT&T has landed in the bottom five in home runs per game. This will be a problem for Belt going forward, as four of his five home runs were on the road, and at least one, maybe two, would not be a home run at AT&T park, as the following overlay shows:

I guess that last paragraph was sort of a two-fer. AT&T Park won’t sap Belt’s power; I anticipate his power surge causing his doubles to go through the roof. I just wouldn’t expect his hits to land on the other side of the fence as often as they have through the first couple weeks of the season. While I hope I’m wrong, I want to caution Giants fans to not lose their mind when it comes to Brandon Belt’s potential this season.

San Francisco Giants Preview Part I

With the Super Bowl now far in the rear view mirror, and the regular season now in full swing (no pun intended), it’s time to turn my attention from the NFL to Major League Baseball. Since most of my posts surround around the 49ers, you can probably guess that my baseball team of choice is the San Francisco Giants. The Orange & Black stumbled last year in their 2012 title defense, finishing with a 76-86 record, good (bad?) enough to tie the Padres for third place in the standings in the NL West. Unlike 2011, when you could point to Buster Posey’s broken leg as the reason behind the precipitous drop, in 2013, the Giants were just bad. Unfortunately, this was the year I was able to take in the most games in person (three), with two being losses.  It was a bad year for the Giants, and they’re hoping that they can improve on their record in 2014. There are questions to be had at every position, even with their best player, Buster Posey. I’ll address what I see as the biggest question marks for the Giants in 2014, question by question.

How Much Catcher Does Buster Posey Play?
Last season, the Giants locked up the face of their franchise until 2021 (with a club option for 2022) last year, giving Posey a massive 9 year, $167 million contract. The moment the ink started to dry on the contract, a big career-spanning question popped up: how long can Posey be behind the dish?  The Giants have already started to think about this problem, with Posey starting at first base in 18% of his 427 career starts. They’re clearly looking to avoid a Joe Mauer situation here with Posey.

Joe Mauer was signed by the Twins to a massive deal to be the catcher and the face of their franchise, but has had serious durability issues.  His contract closely mirrors Posey’s; 8 years, $184 million, and his position trajectory is one that Posey can expect, as well. Due to an inability to stay on the field (he’s been over 140 games played twice in his career) and Justin Morneau moving on, Mauer has been moved to first base this year. This is a situation that the Giants would like to kick down the road as long as possible, hence, them putting him at 1B at nearly a fifth of his games. This will alleviate the wear and tear (and stress) put on Buster’s body and will allow him to stay behind the plate, where his bat becomes even more valuable.

Doing this very thing hasn’t been a problem in the past, as the first base position has been one of weakness for the Giants during Posey’s reign behind the plate. Last season, however, saw the rise of the Giants’ best hitting first baseman in years, Brandon Belt. The next question that the Giants need answered is…

What is to be Expected of Brandon Belt?
Last year, Brandon Belt had a mini-breakout, upping his Slugging from .421 to .481 while maintaining his on-base-percentage. This translated into ten more homeruns in about 100 more plate appearances. In fact, this power breakout almost exactly doubled his homerun rate from the year prior. In 2012, Belt hit a homerun in 1.48% of all his plate appearances. In 2013, that number spiked to 2.97%. There is a lot of rumor and speculation around the league that Belt will continue his upward progress. According to an article last August by Alex Pavlovic in the San Jose Mercury News, Belt adjusted his swing after visiting the Philliles and discussing it with Domonic Brown. In the same article, Pavlovic notes that Bruce Bochy & (hitting coach) Bam-Bam Mullens begged belt to move backwards in the batting box. Both of these adjustments translated to a better result for Belt on the field.

When a player improves or worsens, you want to look for the impetus of that change. In this instance, Belt has a definite reason why his power numbers spiked and his average went up. His OBP staying the same indicates that his slugging spike doesn’t mean he’s trading taking good pitches for mashing the baseball. He took less walks, yes, as evidenced by his OBP staying the same while his AVG jumped, but this all could be attributed to seeing the ball better purely by knowing where to stand in the batters’ box. His BABIP is pretty high 0.351, but he maintained that across two seasons thanks to a ~25% line drive rate.

Full disclosure: before I looked all this up, I thought Belt’s power spike was a bit of smoke & mirrors. I no longer think that. In order to prevent from skewing my bias, I dialed up expert projections on FantasyPros.com. They average out to the following (2013 included for reference):

2014 Proj                             2013
AVG       .280                        .289
OBP       .356                        .360
SLG        .466                        .481
OPS        .822                        .841
HR          17                           17
RBI         75                           67
SB           6                              5

Now look at those numbers and tell me what you see. Experts agree on a Brandon Belt regression (except for one more stolen base and 8 extra RBI), while concurrently listing him as a breakout contender. I’m a bit more bullish on Belt. I like the idea of having him stand further back and adjust his grip over the course of a half season & a spring training. It will really allow him to adjust & capitalize on these adjustments. If it were up to me, I would probably change his slash line to something like .283, .360 (I like that OBP for him) and a slightly higher SLG, say, .500.  I would definitely peg Belt for somewhere in the low-20s for homeruns (though AT&T Park may repress a couple into doubles).

When it comes to all things Giants, I tend to bounce my ideas off my friend Joeburg. I hesitated to ask him, since he’s the world’s biggest Brandon Belt fan. He put the ceiling and floor as this:

Floor:
.280/20 HR/85 RBI/75 R/8 SB/.810 OPS

Ceiling:
.305/25 HR/105 RBI/85 R/15 SB/.870 OPS

I would be happy with anything that pops up between either of these projections, but I am cautious on Belt.  His career year in HRs will probably be 25, and I doubt that this is going to be his career year. Cavernous AT&T Park tends to suppress dingers (adjusted for Barry Bonds) but promotes doubles and triples. This will be a boon for Belt, who doesn’t have massive power (but has power nonetheless). Last year Belt hit 39 doubles, and this year I could see that boosting up to the mid-40s if not the low 50s.

No matter what Belt does, as long as he improves on his last year, he’ll be the best first baseman the Giants have trotted out there since JT Snow retired (no offense to Travis Ishikawa, John Bowker, Ryan Klesko and Shea Hillenbrand).

As I was going through the Giants starting first basemen since Snow retired, I found that there were a lot of underwhelming aging veterans populating those squads. Speaking of which…

When Will Marco Scutaro Be Healthy (And Will He Stay That Way)?
After the 2012 World Series win, Scutaro received the Brian Sabean Memorial Terrible Contract for an Old Man Coming Off a Career Year (AKA the Aubrey Huff Award). He didn’t play at all in the Cactus League this year and is just now taking grounders and swinging a bat. This isn’t a big deal if you’re a 22 year old young buck who can bounce back into game shape quickly. Scutaro is just about 6 months shy of his 39^th birthday, so a young buck he is not.  He has been dealing with soft tissue back and hip injuries. These types of injuries tend to recur even in those that are in the best of health. With current reports indicating that there is no timetable for Scutaro’s return, we could be seeing more of Joaquin Arias that we initially anticipated this year.

The recurrence issue is one that really gives me pause. Scoots is very old in baseball years and very old baseball players don’t recover all that quickly or all that thoroughly. While I doubt Scutaro will be out for a very long time with these issues, recurrences are really what I fear. Given that Arias is the super-backup and he’ll be posted at 2B full time. Scutaro is breaking down, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we saw more non-Scutaro players at 2B this year than Scutaro.

Speaking of recurrence of issues…

How Much Weight Does Pablo Sandoval Regain?
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Pablo Sandoval doubled down his off-season efforts to whip himself into shape and he’s entering the season. Sandoval fooled the world a couple seasons ago when he cut weight prior to the season beginning. He’s done it again this year, cutting a tremendous amount off his hefty frame. Given that he doesn’t have hamate bones to break this year, and that it is his walk year, AND that he has already made outrageous contract demands, Sandoval is likely to keep his weight off. I don’t know how to put this without making it sound terrible, so I’ll just say it: Sandoval acts like a child.

Now, he isn’t like a child in that he throws tantrums or is petulant in any way. He’s shown time and again that he will do something if it benefits him. He was quoted as saying he would worry about his weight in his walk year, meaning that he would stop indulging in short-term delicacies when it meant he could pull millions of dollars out of a team. That year has come, and I believe Sandoval will keep the weight off. Not because he will be a hard worker, but because he sees dollar signs.

I didn’t realize I was writing this thing into giant (pun intended) unmanageable chunks, so I’ll be following up with Part II tomorrow!

Super Bowl Preview

I’ll admit, after Richard Sherman tipped the pass intended for Michael Crabtree, I went full-on bitter fan. My team’s season was over & I didn’t want anything to do with football anymore. I started looking fully into baseball & doing research for some pieces for baseball. The Super Bowl was placed on the furthest back of back burners, until now. The big game is today in New Jersey, and while some predicted a Snow Bowl of epic proportions, the weather is shaping up to be moderately cold and clear. This is good news for Peyton Manning and the Broncos, as Manning is notoriously worse in cold-weather games.  Manning is one of many, many players that will have an impact on the Super Bowl. Here I’ll break down every matchup in this super-sized Super Bowl super edition of MSSO.

Peyton Manning vs. The “Legion of Boom”
Richard Sherman (unsurprisingly) fired the first salvo of this competition, but he did it weeks ago when he did an article for Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback website. In his column, he praised Peyton for his ability but also got a dig in, saying that Manning throws “ducks.” Peyton conceded this week that he does, in fact, throw ducks. He went on to say that his ducks have netted him a lot of yards and a bunch of touchdowns. The Peyton vs. Sherman matchup is one that I’m not sure Manning can win play-in and play-out on Sunday.

Luckily for Peyton, his ridiculous receiving corps and the typical CB formation means that Manning won’t have to. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Richard Sherman lines up on the right side of the field 98% of the time. Unlike other corners who shadow the best receiver (in this case, by Sherman’s own admission, it is Demaryius Thomas), Sherman locks down whoever lines up on his side of the field. Put simply, Peyton Manning needs to stay away from Richard Sherman. If it was that easy, the Seahawks wouldn’t have had the stingiest pass defense in the NFL in 2013. Passing away from Sherman means passing towards Byron Maxwell & Earl Thomas (or K.J. Wright, depending on your target). Well, according to Pro Football Focus, you’re throwing away from the #6 cover corner and instead you throw towards #10 or #22 corner (or if you’re going towards the Tight End, that’s K.J. Wright, the #5 cover outside linebacker.

Peyton seems to be a bit overwhelmed with coverage issues in this situation, and it’s one that he’s not used to facing this year. The Broncos have faced only two of the top ten pass defenses on a YPG basis: the Texans and the Giants (and one theory on the Texans is they get crushed quick & early and teams would just run the ball to kill the clock). In the Giants game, on the very field where he’ll play the Super Bowl, he threw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a 69.7% completion rate and 7.1 yards per attempt. Peyton’s best trait, however, is taking what the defense gives him. He lead the team to 34 points (he doesn’t get credit for Trindon Holliday’s punt return touchdown), which is exactly as many points as the highest scoring Seahawks’ opponent in 2013.

And for all the talk of the “ducks” that Peyton throws, he boasted the second-best INT% of players that were starters all year (1.5% of his passes were intercepted, Alex Smith was #1 with 1.4% of his passes being intercepted). This is according to the data on sportingcharts.com.

Then we have the Seattle secondary. They’re just plain incredible at what they do; the best in the NFL. But then again, so is Peyton. The Seattle secondary needs to play exceptionally lock-down, since Peyton can quickly and accurately make sure the slipping defender is exploited. Luckily for the Seahawks’ secondary, they don’t slip often.  More important to the Seattle defense in the Super Bowl will be their pass rush, which brings us to our second matchup.

Peyton Manning vs. The Seattle Pass Rush
In the AFC Championship Game, on 43 pass attempts, the Patriots managed zero sacks and zero QB hits. I don’t know if Manning’s jersey even needed to be washed after the game. In fact, Manning was only hurried on seven of his throws at Mile High (according to Profootballfocus.com). Again, like the Seattle Secondary’s YPG (and likely a contributing factor to the same), the Seattle pass rush rated out as the best in the NFL (and by a wide margin) in 2013. Peyton actually faced the second-best pass rush in the NFL per PFF when he took on the Tennessee Titans in week 15. The Broncos managed 51 points and Peyton was, again, not sacked. He was hit only 3 times and hurried 10 times on 63 drop backs.

Peyton has no problem with the pass rush due to his pre-snap reads. He can read the coverage and the defense and knows where he wants to go before the ball is even snapped. He averaged a league-low 2.36 seconds to pass, which, if the Broncos offensive line can hold up, means that he will have enough time in the pocket for him to be comfortable.  Manning won’t tout a clean jersey in the Super Bowl like he did in the AFCCG, but contending with a formidable pass rush will not be a problem with Peyton. The only problem will be his offensive line wearing down.

The reason the Seattle pass rush is so effective is that they can rotate pass rushers that stay fresh all game. This cannot be said for the Broncos O-Line. The Seahawks have 5 D-Linemen that grade out as extremely good pass rushers per PFF & they effectively rotate these players in order to always have a fresh pass rusher available (on top of having guys like Bruce Irvin as situational pass rushers). The Broncos will have to go up big early if they want to keep these pass rushers at bay, since the Broncos O-Line is destined to break down and give up hits, hurries and sacks. The only question is if the game will be on the line when they do. 

The Broncos offense can’t & won’t be one-dimensional if they have any chance for success. They’ll need to get good games out of their backfield, lead by Knowshon Moreno.

Knowshon Moreno vs. The Seattle Run Defense
Seattle did not play a ton of great running attacks this year, and those they did play, by and large, were successful. Zac Stacy managed over 100 yards rushing against them, as did Arian Foster & Frank Gore. Surprisingly, Adrian Peterson was held to only 65 yards. Somehow Mike James tallied over 150 yards on the ground against them.  There isn’t really any rhyme or reason to who was able to have a big day against the Seahawks, only that it was rare. Knowshon Moreno made waves this year as he ended up over 1000 yards for the year rushing with 10 touchdowns. This was great for fantasy teams, but ultimately, Moreno didn’t contribute a heck of a lot to the Broncos offense as a running back, averaging just under 65 yards per game at just over 4 yards per carry.

Instead, Moreno chipped in 60 receptions for over 500 yards through the air in 2013. This will bring another wrinkle to the Broncos offense that the Seahawks will have to account for. If the Broncos can manage to keep the Seahawks in nickel or dime personnel, they can lighten the box or keep coverage off Moreno, and allow him to shine.

The Denver offense will have its hands full with the Seattle defense, the two great powers will smash into each other until one breaks. In fact, all the tension and drama will occur when Peyton Manning is Omaha-ing his way down the field. The guys playing while these two groups rest up hope to have a say in things, too.

Russell Wilson vs. The Broncos Defense
If the matchup between the Broncos offense & the Seahawks defense is a battle of Titans, then this matchup is the solid undercard. Neither team is known for these particular phases of the game, but they are both stronger and more dynamic than you would expect. It all starts with Sophomore play caller Russell Wilson. His ability to scramble and elude tacklers while keeping his eyes up the field is incredible. In fact, this ability may be exactly the reason why the Seahawks are in the Super Bowl. In the first quarter, he was able to elude the 49ers’ pass rush long enough to throw an absolute bomb to Doug Baldwin for 51 yards. This play keyed a Seahawks score that, thankfully for the 49ers, was only three points. However, his ability to extend plays and even take them up field using just his legs is vital to the Seahawks’ ability to pull one out at MetLife Stadium Sunday.

The Broncos faced three of the so-called “mobile quarterbacks” in 2013. They faced Terrelle Pryor twice, RGIII and Michael Vick once (before each was benched). Excepting Griffin’s 5 rushes for 7 yards, these mobile quarterbacks can do some damage to the Broncos defense, getting about 50 yards on the ground. In a game where the Seattle defense isn’t going to allow a ton of points, 50 yards from Russell Wilson could be the difference between Seattle winning and losing this football game.

The Broncos defense has a bit of an extra chip on their shoulder for two reasons. They’re playing without their best player, third-year linebacker Von Miller. They learned how to play without him early in the season due to his suspension, but losing him is still a big blow. They’re out to prove that they are more than the sum of their parts, and that the “next man up” doesn’t pose a problem for the Broncos. They’re also playing for Champ Bailey. Bailey is one of the better defensive backs in NFL history, racking up 12 Pro Bowl and 3 NFL All-Pro nods in his long and storied career, but this is his first Super Bowl. Long in the tooth, Bailey isn’t the player that he used to be, but he has the whole defense playing to get him his ring.

Free Agent acquisition Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been playing out of his mind this year, and despite Sherman’s boasts that he’s the greatest Cornerback in the game, he won’t even be the best Cornerback in MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Across the board, per PFF’s signature stats, DRC outperforms Sherman. He has more stops (plays wherein his actions caused a failure for the offense), a lower completion percentage and with more throws going his way. By Sherman’s own admission, great CBs get thrown-to. He has a higher coverage rating, as well. His weakness, compared to Sherman, is that he gives up longer plays. This may be because when he’s beat, he’s beat hard & with Sherman, he isn’t. Luckily for DRC, he’s not taking on world beaters.

Full Disclosure: My power went out right about here, so a lot of what follows is conjecture that hasn’t been fact-checked since I was without internet. I did my best to pull information on my cell phone.

Seahawks Receivers vs. Broncos Defense
The biggest wild card this weekend is the Seahawks’ receiving corps, mostly because Percy Harvin hasn’t been able to finish a game this season. He managed fewer than 20 snaps in both of his games played this year, going out with injuries both times. If the dynamic Harvin can stay on the field, he can cause nightmares for the Broncos D; he can lineup in the backfield as a running back, or take a screen pass the length of the field to the house. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos try to counteract Harvin’s playmaking ability. While they have Rodgers-Cromartie, they lost their second-best CB in Chris Harris Jr.  to an ACL tear in the Championship Game. This means that having DRC on Harvin means having inferior CBs on Doug Baldwin or Golden Tate. This could be an exploitable matchup for Russell Wilson, if he can get off his recent skid. He hasn’t been playing well as of late, and he’ll need to exploit the suddenly exploitable Denver secondary in order to do so. 

Beast Mode vs. Broncos Defense
Broncos are down Von Miller, but they can make it up by getting to Wilson with a mix of Shaun Phillips and Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton. Knighton has been on fire as of late, posting four of his best games in his last five. He’ll make life difficult on Russell Wilson, but he’ll also play a big role in shutting down Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch. Lynch excels in big games, coming up huge two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game with a 40 yard touchdown run, and who can forget the run that popularized Beast Mode? Ask the Saints, as he ran through, over and around the entire New Orleans defense en route to the 7-9 division winning Seahawks pulling an upset against the reigning champion Saints.

The Denver rushing defense was top-ten in the NFL in both yards per carry and total yards per game this season, so they aren’t used to getting run over. They have great playmakers not only in the aforementioned Phillips and Pot Roast, but also in Robert Ayers and Kevin Vickerson, who all graded out extremely well against the run this year. It will be difficult for Beast Mode to get going early, but much like with the Seattle pass rush, the Seattle run game succeeds by slowly chipping away at your rushing defense. In the NFC Championship Game, they weren’t getting much out of Lynch until he broke off his massive run, which is exactly how the Seahawks want to play it.

The Broncos and Seahawks ultimately matchup very well together. They’re two of the best teams in the NFL, and it’s appropriate that they meet up in the Super Bowl. The most prolific offense takes on the stingiest defense in a matchup that would make any NFL fan salivate. The other side of the ball has the Seattle pass and rushing attack take on a Denver defense that will match up very well against them. Ultimately, this game will come down to one big play. Like last year’s Super Bowl, where Jacoby Jones took the kickoff to the house. It could be a touchdown return from either Trindon Holliday or Percy Harvin, or a pick-six from one of the Legion of Boom or DRC. The problem with depending on turnovers is that while the Seattle defense thrives on them, the Denver offense does not give them up. While it’s more likely for Russell Wilson to throw a bad ball than Peyton, the Denver defense isn’t as opportunistic as Seattle.

With such an even matchup, I have to bet on experience winning the day. It’ll be a close one, but I think Peyton ties Eli and gets his second ring. Given that I honestly think the game will come down to one big mistake, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks come up with that play and I’m wrong.

Sorry about the late posting, folks. I finished this bad boy up and had to sit around waiting for the power to come back on. I doubt anyone will have time to read this before the Super Bowl, but I put far too much into this to just sort of set it aside!

NFC Championship Preview: 49ers at Seahawks

I initially feared writing this piece. I feared that it would be me arguing my heart versus my mind versus my gut. This marks the third time the Niners and Seahawks, who many think are the two best teams in the NFC, go head to head. The series is split this year, but it isn’t as simple as calling it a “split.” Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were completely dismantled the last time they went to Seattle. I started to really dive into all the statistics, all the splits, all the opponent information and I’ve come up with a few insights about the game that don’t show too much bias but also put an interesting spin on the game that I haven’t seen put out anywhere else. I pulled all bias from this and tried to look merely at the numbers. Just the numbers (the blog can be temporarily named My Stupid Conclusions From Actual Statistics).

Niners Are Better than Seahawks in Rematches (Also, Down the Stretch):
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16.  A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.

The Seahawks have not fared so well in rematches this year. The first time through a team, they won in a blowout; 27.75 points to 10.25. In their second time around, they still won the majority of their games (as a 13-3 team is likely to do), but their offense fell by 8.5 points per game and their offense allowed 4.75 more points per game. This means that the Seahawks are less potent the second time around. Why could this be? Well, 4 out of their last 5 games have been rematches, including three out of four to close the season against the NFC West. The Seahawks have been the champs of the division all season long, taking the lead in week two and never looking back. It’s easy to get up and get ready for the #1 team in your division. It could also be that Russell Wilson has struggled mightily down the stretch (the passing game is averaging 40 fewer yards per game since their bye). Marshawn Lynch has admirably carried the load, but the sputtering offense has produced 3 fewer first downs a game since their bye, meaning Beast Mode is getting fewer opportunities. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks defense has responded by getting better, allowing fewer yards, first downs, and points.

The Seahawks’ Defense Depends on Turnovers (and the 49ers Don’t Give it Up)
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game.  Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.

Frank Gore Probably Won’t Repeat One of the Worst Games of His Career
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics.  The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.

No Percy Harvin
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch.  One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.

And the reason why none of the above may matter…

Century Link Field & the Home Field Advantage
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12^th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.

The perfect question was asked of me this week: “Can the 49ers’ win this weekend?” Can they? Absolutely, they can. Will they? That’s another question. There are a ton of factors that will play into it. Much like Carolina, I think experience and the hot hand will win out and the 49ers will advance to 5-2 against Seattle in the Jim Harbaugh Era. If Russell Wilson stops his current schneid, I’m probably betting against the 49ers, but given that he pulled off barely 100 yards against a decimated Saints secondary, I wouldn’t count on that.