The pain of the Super Bowl has mostly passed, and I‘m back in a position where I can actually talk about sports again. I understand that to this point, I have done mostly general posts about sports that can be consumed by anyone who has a tangential interest to any sport. However, there are only so many of those topics that can be covered. They will return, but I want to start taking a good look at what happens on the field (or on the court). I’m sorry if I lose some of you, but I really enjoy making posts like “Why Do We Love Sports?” so stick around, there will be more like that.
After doing a year in review a while back just to splash something up on a page, I thought I would do a position-by-position breakdown of each position grouping on the 49ers, assign grades, and give an outlook on the position in 2013.
Quarterback, A-, Key Players: Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith
Here we go, this one is a doozie. Coming off his first full decent season, Alex Smith was turning in a solid, not great season. He had become a reliable cog in the 49ers system. He’d take more sacks than risks on shots downfield, throwing mostly safe, short passes. The week prior to losing his job due to a concussion, Alex Smith was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week, completing 18 or 19 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns. Pro-football-reference.com breaks down his statistics from the game, and only two of his 19 passes went “deep” (20 or more yards in the air). In fact, about 20% of Smith’s production for the day came on a short right pass to Moss, who took it 47 yards for the touchdown. Smith didn’t put the ball in a great position, but with some good moves and better downfield blocking, Moss was able to score. The same thing happened on a 30 yard pass to Michael Crabtree, wherein he made several moves to make much ballyhooed Cardinals defensive back Patrick Peterson look entirely lost. It was the most Smithian of games. He made short, smart passes and was putting the ball where it was safest, not necessarily where it needed to be to score. His playmakers made moves downfield to give him his impressive day. According to 49ers insider Matt Barrows, 131 of Smith’s 232 yards came on YAC (yards after the catch) that game, or 56.4%. More than half of Smith’s yards that game, and two touchdowns, came from the playmaking skills of players on his team, not from his arm.
The following week young Colin Kaepernick took the reins after Alex Smith was concussed prior to throwing a touchdown to Michael Crabtree. Kaepernick looked exactly as inexperienced as he was. He had come in solely for trick plays or the veiled threat of the deep bomb to that point. He had no serious experience running the offense. He rallied the 49ers back from a 14-7 deficit to a tie. The glorious reign of the Kap began with a tie to a division rival.
The week after, however, was a Monday Night Football tilt versus the Chicago Bears and their Defense of Destiny. They had been playing at a clip that had people whispering about the 1985 Bears and their all-time great defense. Colin Kaepernick tore them apart. He was an unknown commodity as a play caller, and as the focal point of the offense. He threw for roughly the same amount of yards as Smith the game before, but with a couple of long bombs to Kyle Williams and Vernon Davis, many more of his yards came on his own merit. He yanked the job out of Smith’s hands and never looked back.
Kaepernick had his ups and downs, the deepest downs coming a couple weeks later against the Rams, when his youth and decision making was on full display in an overtime loss to St. Louis—which almost tied again. With impressive wins over the Bears, Saints, Patriots, Dolphins and Cardinals, Kaepernick developed a stranglehold on the job. The full range of CK7’s ability was on display in consecutive weeks—Week 14 at home against the Dolphins and Week 15 at the Patriots. In Week 14, he took a read option 56 yards to the end zone, untouched. In Week 15, he passed all over the questionable Patriots secondary.
In the playoff bye week, Jim Harbaugh and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman fully installed the pistol formation and the zone read plays that the 49ers ran from the formation. This led them to the Super Bowl. Kaepernick gashed the Packers for the most rushing yards by a quarterback ever in the Divisional Round, and in the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons sold out against Kaepernick. This led to two rushing touchdowns by Frank Gore, a third by LaMichael James and receiving touchdown by Vernon Davis.
Colin Kaepernick’s poise in his tenth start really shown through, and raised the overall QB ranking for the 49ers from a B+ to an A-. In his tenth start, Kaepernick was down 28-6 after a huge return touchdown by Jacoby Jones against the Ravens.
Did I forget to mention the Super Bowl was his tenth start? In this start, Kaepernick led the 49ers back to a 31-29 deficit on a 15 yard rushing play. After this, the 49ers were within striking distance with about two minutes left. Questionable play calling, questionable no calls by the referees and lack of execution caused the rumbling comeback to fall short. However, Kaepernick’s poise on the biggest stage, orchestrating a 20-point comeback solidified him as a starter in the NFL.
Colin Kaepernick showed that he was the polar opposite of Alex Smith this year. While his yards per attempt were almost identical (about 8 yards per attempt), his yards per completion was higher (about 11 YPC for Smith, about 13 for Kaepernick), and many of Kaepernick’s passes came without significant YAC. He is a stronger downfield passer than Smith, and I don’t even have to explain the completely different dimension he adds with his feet. He’s about halfway through his first season as a starter, by games, and he already has people asking if he is going to be an elite quarterback. That’s a pretty good future for some kid from Turlock.
For 2013:
It is obvious that Colin Kaepernick is the 49er’s quarterback of the future. Ravens super All-Pro & potential future Hall of Famer Terrell Suggs said of Kaepernick, "When you go in there and you're playing a guy like that, I hate quarterbacks, but that kid is the truth and I have the upmost respect for him. I don't think he needs to hold his head down at all because he's going to play in a few (Super Bowls)."
The only question for 2013 is the future of Alex Smith. It was made abundantly clear over the last couple of years that Smith, given the right system and expectations, can be a starting quarterback in the NFL. With Kaepernick on the 49ers, however, he can’t be that in San Francisco. Rumors swirled that he would request a release prior to a trade, but it is likely that Trent Baalke can squeeze a mid-round pick or two out of a team to guarantee Smith’s services. I did a full write-up of the likelihood of Smith’s destinations in 2013.
The question then becomes: who is Colin Kaepernick’s backup?
Some would point to free agents like Jason Campbell or JaMarcus Russell (just kidding) as potential backups for Kaep. I submit that Kaepernick’s backup is already on the roster, and that the third string QB played for us this preseason. Scott Tolzien lit up the 49ers two preseasons ago before he was cut by the Chargers and subsequently snapped up by the 49ers to be their third-string QB. He’s pretty much what you want out of a backup QB. Solid, nothing spectacular, and with a low likelihood of vomiting all over himself. I can see him as an easy in-house option at professional clipboard holder next season. Who becomes the third string QB? That would be Colin Kaepernick 1.0; Josh Johnson. Johnson was Harbaugh’s first real mobile quarterback option when he played for him at the University of San Diego. Johnson was brought in last season to compete with Tolzien for the #3 gig. I think he will be brought back in a clear #3, break glass in case of emergency role.
Questions for 2013:
Outside of the above question about who will be Kaepernick's backup, there is a question that will plague NFL Defensive Coordinators this offseason: how do you stop the read option? The play, wherein the QB acts as though he will hand the ball off and does or doesn't, depending on his read of the defense, devastated defenses this season. Not only Kaepernick, but young guns Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III ran the play to perfection. If the read option/zone read can be shut down, CK7 will be forced to become a pocket passer, using his feet mostly for scrambling. This is precisely what happened for most of the Ravens and Falcons games, and they worked out pretty well.
Kaepernick's decision making will also be on display. He started off horrid, with too many burned time outs and delay of game penalties. However, he seemed to shed all that nonsense in the playoffs. Which Kaepernick shows up in 2013 will determine the 49ers' fate. They won't have Alex "Steady Eddie" Smith to fall back on anymore if Kaepernick struggles out of the gate next year.
2013 Outlook Grade: A
Well, there
you have it, the first of the positional reviews for the 49ers. I was
hoping to somehow cram all the offense into less than 1500 words, but
its clear that won’t happen. The goal of 1k a day is to rip off the
amounts in manageable chunks; no manifestos here. Given that I’m very
far behind, I’ll likely be shooting for 1500 or so words a day, but
that’s where I currently stand anyway, so that shouldn’t be a huge
problem. Next up will be, by far, the 49ers’ deepest position, the
Running Back position.
Words: 1,612
Remaining: 353,594
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