Today I present part 3 of my 30 questions for 30 teams series, with the AL East. I’ll loop back around, hitting the NL East, NL Central and NL West in the upcoming week.
Over the last twenty years or so, the AL East has been the dominant division in baseball. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays have all been among the best teams during that span. They have all made it to the World Series (and they all have won, except the Rays in 2008). The Blue Jays haven’t been horribly relevant lately, but this year marks the 20th anniversary of Joe Carter’s walk off homerun to win the World Series. Because the path to the postseason is winning your division, the AL East has been involved in a massive arms race as well. The only problem is now the times they are a’changing. The Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays have all taken vastly different paths over the last few years, their paths merging in five questions for the AL East in 2013.
Baltimore Orioles – Can they repeat 2012?
The Orioles were one of the darling stories of the 2012 season, along with the A’s. They came from seemingly out of nowhere to make the post-season for the first time since 1997. 1997! Wow, I guess that’s what happens when you’re not very good and you share a division with the Yankees and Red Sox dual buzz saws of the 2000s. They were ultimately the beneficiaries of the new, second Wild Card spot, beating the Rangers and eventually losing to the Yankees in the Divisional Round.
Can they repeat that crazy, out of nowhere performance in 2013? Heck, no! They had one wonderful year of flukiness and luck. The baseball mantra of regressing to the mean will hit the birds hard this year. A cursory glance at their overall statistics---93-69, while only outscoring your opponents by seven runs all year is extremely fluky. Bill James developed a statistic called “Pythagorean W-L” or “pythag” for short. This is an estimation of what a team’s record should be based on the amount of runs scored and the amount of runs given up. Mr. James’s statistic shows that the Orioles should have won 82 games last year. This would put them so far out of playoff contention that everyone (really, no one) would have talked about the overwhelmingly okay season that the Orioles pulled off last year.
The fact of the matter is their pitchers are somewhere between bad and terrible, and closer to the latter. Outside of Jim Johnson, who had a career high in a stat that you literally have to be chosen to be eligible for (and is stupid and out dated), their pitchers alternated between significantly above average and significantly below average for the season. They had 29 one-run victories, which, if they swung the other way, plunges the Orioles into being, well… The Orioles we’ve come to love recently.
They weren’t the masters of the walk-off win like the A’s were last year, but they were the masters of squeaking by. Most of this credit can be given to their significantly above average bullpen. The “high use” relievers (50 or more appearances with relatively few innings, what some call the “7-8-9 guys and the like) all posted an ERA+ (in short, ERA plus accounts for ballpark factors and the average ERA around the league—100 is average) above 160. That means that they were all significantly above average. Justin Verlander’s ERA+ was 160 last year, so that gives you a frame of reference—thanks to baseball-reference.com for those statistics.
The major part of their success last year was having a bullpen full of Justin Verlanders to close out those nearly 30 close games last year. There is high doubt that this is a duplicable performance as none of the men in that bullpen had previously had doe much in their career.
(Not So) Bold Prediction: I can’t even make a bold prediction about the team that doesn’t sound silly. I’ll just finish off this portion by saying how excited I am about Manny Machado this year. The guy has a ton of talent and did okay in his cup of coffee last year. I have no stats to back this up, except my gut.
Boston Red Sox – Should They Blow It Up?
After trading the massive contracts of Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (and for some reason, Nick Punto) last off season to the Dodgers, the question should probably be “Should They Blow It Up Even More Than They Already Have?” It was clear to the Red Sox at the end of the last season that their roster wasn’t working, which is why they shipped off their two “big splash” acquisitions of the previous couple of years and Beckett, who was previously a high priced signing. It appeared as though they were dedicated to getting rid of the chaff on their team. The only problem is it’s hard to trade a $16,000,000 John Lackey for basically anything.
They unloaded a ton of money at the end of last season in that deal, but still have a long way to go to trim the chaff from their roster. They have over $65,000,000 tied up in the aforementioned Lackey, Ryan Dempster, David Ortiz, Shane Victorino and Stephen Drew. Essentially learning nothing from all the money they threw at Gonzalez and Crawford, they threw money at retaining Ortiz and brought in Victorino and Drew. This boggles the mind because they aren’t making different mistakes, they’re making exactly the same ones. Ortiz is often hurt, and his skills are quickly declining over the last few years. The average is there but the power is starting to drain as he gets up there in years. Not resigning him wasn’t an option. Papi is adored in Boston, and there would have been a coup d’etat if they let him walk.
The real issue is by doubling-down on putting money into the corpse of Shane Victorino, and overpaying him by about $4,000,000 a year in doing so. The Red Sox are stuck in a cycle of keeping up with the Joneses, and in this case, the Joneses are the Yankees. They have to try to pace with them and they look up (or this year, down) at them every year. This need to not enter a rebuilding process sees them throwing cash at names, rather than production, every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years, Victorino and/or Drew get dealt a la Crawford/Gonzalez.
Bold Prediction: That year is this year, and one of their high priced toys ends up somewhere else. With the Yankees starting to look like a M*A*S*H* unit, the Red Sox can take their foot off the gas and retool for the future. They’re clearly the third best team in the AL East (behind Tampa Bay and Toronto, in my opinion) and they aren’t going to beat out whoever doesn’t take the West between Anaheim and Texas. This is going to be true for the next few years, as well. If they are smart, they toss 1-2 of their top 10-paid players to a contender and start all over. If they get a jump on New York, they can have the suddenly austere Yankees trying to keep up with them in a few years.
New York Yankees – WHAT HAPPENED?
I’m going to be honest with you guys, I really, really anticipated writing this part of the 30 questions pieces because the 2013 Yankees are hilarious. They have tons of money tied up in hurt, aging, overpaid stars and they rectified this by signing VERNON WELLS of all people. If you look up world’s dumbest contract, there’s a picture of Wells glued over a picture of Barry Zito.
The best part is they looked at their team, got on the phone, and offered to take Vernon Wells from the Angels. It’s like they have a minimum age and salary for Wells. With Wells joining the roster, they now have the highest paid player at First Base (Mark Teixeira), Third Base (Alex Rodriguez—more on him later), Shortstop (Derek Jeter), Left Field—actually the entire outfield (Vernon Wells) and a top 5-paid Starting Pitcher (CC Sabathia). Look through that list again, and cross reference it with the Yankees injury report. Yup. Tex, A-Rod and Jeter are all hurt. Add Curtis Granderson to that list and things start to get grizzly.
The Yankees’ propensity for grabbing players on their second or third contract and giving them a fat payday is backfiring on them. They loaded up on talent, paid them big, and once George Steinbrenner stepped down, got hamstrung for roster flexibility. They had to let good piece players like Russell Martin go and are stuck with players like Francisco Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez playing everyday. Throw in Ichiro Suzuki and it’s clear the Yankees are built to have made a run about 5 years ago, and put the team together now, and are paying the price. And signing Alex Rodriguez to an eleventy billion dollar, millennium long contract after Rodriguez had started his sharp decline has someone reaching for the glue to cover Vernon Wells.
Unlike the Red Sox who have some relatively expensive contracts on aging players, the Yankees appear to be constructed almost exclusively out of monster contracts with players of dubious quality. Rumor has it they’re about to back up the dump truck for Robinson Cano, investing more money in locking up a player long term. They worry about now and forget about year 8 or 9 of the contract. The problem is they’re now stuck with a bunch of junk for a ton of money. The next few years are going to be rough for the Yankees, especially if Rodriguez doesn’t take a hint and back out from his contract and retire.
Bold Prediction: Curtis Granderson comes back worse for wear from his fractured forearm, Jeter is always a step slow all year, A-Rod doesn’t come back at all and neither does Mark Teixeira. Vernon Wells hurts himself around mid-season and all is lost. Ichiro makes an awesome All-Star Game speech like always but it doesn’t save the Yankees from finishing last in the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays – Is It Enough?
The Rays are the anti-Yankees. Regularly coming in with a roster salary that doesn’t even match that of the Yankees infield (not even including a pitcher in that mix), they somehow vie for contention the AL East every year. They are savvy with their dollars, as those without a lot of them are wont to do. They are cautious of bringing up players to push off starting their arbitration clock (see Myers, Wil; Jennings. Desmond, ***insert any player the Rays had in their farm system here***). They don’t have any massive contracts, but they do have some great players. They are smart with their money; they signed Evan Longoria to a long term deal early in his career; the deal makes “club friendly” a massive understatement. They are geniuses with their money.
Coming into this season, James Shields was set to be their highest paid player, so what’d they do? Trade him for parts; one part is set to be a centerpiece of the Rays lineup soon (if they call him up); uberprospect Wil Myers. It’s moves like this that allow the Rays to stay in contention year after year despite battling against the contractian dual goliaths of New York and Boston. I love the way this team is run; it’s reminiscent of the early days of Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” philosophy. While that was built around finding market inefficiencies (determining what is overvalued and undervalued, then acting accordingly), its core ideals are at the heart of the Rays philosophy. The Rays need to make something from nothing, figuring out how to stay contenders on pittances and scraps compared to the rest of the league.
Every year they are oh, so close, always in the conversation, but not always in the dance. They are yet another team that benefits from the post-season play-in game because they’re setup to be always knocking on the door. The second playoff spot unlocks it a little bit. Unless the suddenly revamped Jays implode, they don’t really have a shot at the division, in my eyes. They are, however, a quality and savvy front office who has made years over years of good moves to position the team to be successful the best they can on their limited budget. Their patience in delaying calling up players is incredibly smart. They are sacrificing a couple months of the player’s playing time at the beginning of their career to have them around for an entire year after they are matured. It’s genius, and should be the blueprint of every small-market team. Not all small-market teams are as smart as the Rays, though.
Bold Prediction: They put it all together and nab the second Wild Card spot. They beat the Rangers in the play-in game. Unfortunately, they do not have the staff to get it going for a whole series, and having used super-ace David Price in the play-in game, don’t make it past the divisional round. In the offseason, the team tries to loosen the purse strings but sudden massive deals for Justin Verlander, and likely Clayton Kershaw set the market too high. They may see this coming and deal the hurler for pieces at the deadline if they are sellers. Either way, David Price pitches somewhere else next year. He’s simply become too expensive for the pauperish Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays – Are They the New Front-Runners?
The Blue Jays were far and away the offseason World Series champs. They added 2012 NL Cy Young winner, knuckleballer extraordinaire and overall cool dude R.A. Dickey to the staff. They went out and signed disgraced ‘roider Melky Cabrera and took advantage of the Marlins not being run like a professional baseball organization; pilfering Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Emilio Bonifacio (and John Buck, eh) for a junky young pitcher, a high-end prospect, Yunel Escobar, a top-100 prospect and organizational depth. Hachi machi. They loaded up in a hurry, and are eying a win now. They clearly see their window with the emergence of Jose Bautista a few years ago and Edwin “E5” Encarnacion last year. The only problem is… is it enough?
All the players they got have question marks attached, with the possible exception of Reyes. Dickey has done it for exactly one year, and is 38 years old this year. The difference between him and other pitchers, though, is that knuckleballers can pitch for forever as the pitch doesn’t put the same strain on the arm as other pitches. Remember, old man Wakefield debuted just before the Battle of Bull Run and retired like 5 minutes ago, and is a poster boy for knuckleballer longevity.
Bonifacio has shown flashes, but in long stretches, he tends to fall apart. He makes a great utility player, but if the Jays have to lean on him for consistent effort, they will be gravely saddened.
Melky Cabrera of the last two years can hit the cover off the ball, but struggled with weight and inconsistency before that. The sudden surge in his career can probably be answered by the reason behind his 50-game suspension and subsequent “thanks but no thanks” from the Giants in the post-season. Now that he’s, in theory, off the juice, does fat, terrible Melky return? The Jays are banking on him bouncing back and returning to smacking the snot out of the ball.
Josh Johnson was a monster a few years ago, but the wheels fell off. The Blue Jays are clearly hoping for a bounceback with him.
Cumulatively, the Jays have enough talent to coast through the post-season. The only problem is that the games aren’t played on spreadsheets, they’re played on the field. Potential becomes reality and what happens between the chalk lines is what counts. Being the post-season champs in February doesn’t mean you’ll be World Series champs in October.
Bold Prediction: It all works, and the Blue Jays hoist the World Series Trophy. The bold prediction on this one doesn’t really need a ton of explaining because it’s so self-explanatory I honestly don’t know how to elaborate. The sky’s the limit for Toronto and I feel like they will at least make a lot of noise in the playoffs this year.
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There you have it, halfway through. 15 out of the 30 questions that baseball will answer this season. The AL was a lot of fun to do because the Giants are in the NL so I don’t really think about the AL that much, to be honest. This has been a fun exercise so far because I learned a lot about teams I don’t really know much about. Granted, I probably said some boneheaded things along the way, since I don’t know everything about every team. That having been said, it’s been a fun time putting this together. To put a bow on the AL part of the 30Q/30T, here are some final predictions:
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
I thought this before his near-perfecto, but I think Darvish gets it all together in his second year in the league. Baseball writers do dumb things for dumb reasons when it comes down to choosing the end-of-season awards, so I could see enough votes swaying from perennial favorite Justin Verlander to Yu.
AL MVP: Mike Trout
Speaking of dumb sportswriters doing dumb things for dumb reasons… Trout’s MVP snub will be rectified. He was the better candidate than Cabrera last year, but Cabrera won because of the ~TRIPLE CROWN~ he won. The Triple Crown includes RBI. RBI is a dumb stat. Trout got robbed. Screw Joeburg and his stupid fantasy team with stupid Mike Trout of stupid waivers for a stupid last round keeper pick.
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers
Myers is making it up this year after the Rays wait long enough to delay his arbitration eligibility. He will slot into that lineup and I, like everyone else, think he’ll light the world on fire. He’s not going to be Mike Trout, mostly because it’s Mike Trout.
ALW: Angels
ALC: Tigers
ALE: Blue Jays
WC1: Rangers
WC2: Indians
ALCS: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim v. Toronto Blue Jays
AL Champions: Toronto Blue Jays
I may take a one-or-two post break before tackling the NL. A lot has happened around sports in the past week that I want to talk about, and there’s some stuff I want to get soapboxy about, so we’ll see how that goes!
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