Spring training ends today and the Rangers and Astros kick off the season with the brand new AL West rivalry tomorrow. Every team has major questions going into the season, even the AL Champion Tigers and World Series Champion Giants. Here I’m going to outline my questions for each team, alongside a bold prediction for the best case scenario for each team. The best case scenario for several teams is winning the World Series, so I will likely have several teams winning it in my reviews.
Houston Astros – How Will Their Tiny Payroll Compete?
In an effort to realign baseball, the Houston Astros moved to the American League West; now they have a new set of people to kick around their anemic franchise. They got new jerseys and colors which are neat, but the most exciting part of the team is the new gear.
There has been much to do about the Houston Astros and their miniscule payroll. It’s been famously compared to Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez’s $29,000,000 pay this year; it falls significantly short of even that mark. Their highest paid player this year will be Bud Norris, of the career 4.42 ERA. He’s making $3,000,000. A-Rod is out for half the season so he will make more than that before he even picks up a bat.
There are some halfway decent players on the roster, but they are all young or cheap as it is clear their plan is to rebuild and compete in a few years. This is a smart maneuver, considering how poorly throwing cash at guys like Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt worked out for them in recent years.
The Astros may be competitive in a few years, but it isn’t in a few years right now. Jose Altuve has legitimate potential and is quickly vaulting himself into the upper echelon at the position. Outside of that, however… there isn’t much worth talking about right now. JD Martinez could be a decent fourth outfielder, but instead he’s a starter, because the Astros are still in the process of putting something decent together in a few years.
The unfortunate situation of the 2013 Astros is that they stand no chance of being anything but cannon fodder for the rest of the league. This isn’t through stupidity or cheapness on the part of ownership, but rather a calculated effort. They’re saving cash now on short, cheap deals while their homegrown talent buds, ensuring the financial flexibility to put pieces around them when they flourish.
The Astros looked at the Rangers and Angels gearing up for war, and the suddenly resurgent A’s becoming a viable team now, and they decided that a few years from now is a better bet. As the fan of a terrible team (the Kings), you just have to realize that the product put out there isn’t out there to win, but rather to act as a placeholder to future years. The Astros have no chance of ending up anywhere but firmly in the basement of the American League West, and actually, likely the entire American League, if not all of baseball.
Bold Prediction: The Astros get their acts together and their hodgepodge of a pitching staff turns out halfway decent performances. Pulling in the fences at Safeco backfires on the Mariners and they, not the Astros, end up in the basement.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Are Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton Broken?
The The Angeles Angels of Anaheim spent megabucks on the free agent prize of last offseason, and he rewarded them by giving them the worst year of his career. Granted, the worst year of his career included 30 homeruns and an .859 OPS. What’s interesting about this is that this is actually not that far off from his final year in St. Louis. A quick glance at Pujols’s career stats indicate that he has been on a steady decline of power, average and ability to take walks since 2009. His strikeout rate hasn’t steadily spiked, but his other categories have declined since then.
This preseason, Pujols has been fighting a plantar fasciitis issue, which, according to Pujols, has been bothering him off and on over the last seven seasons. The years have not been kind to Pujols, who broke into the league white hot and didn’t slow down over his first eight seasons.
The opposite story is Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is the darling story for MLB reclamation projects; he was drafted in 1999 but drug problems threw his career off the rails until he busted onto the scene in 2008 with the Rangers. He was one of baseball’s most valuable players over the last five years, proving it by winning MVP in 2010. He joined Pujols this offseason as the Angels eye the World Series, apparently, by trying to purchase it. Hamilton has been incredible when he has been playing for the Rangers. The only problem is getting Josh Hamilton onto a field (and not killing fans in the process). Hamilton has only played more than 135 games twice in his six seasons and is the poster child for persistent injury risks with massive rewards while on the field.
If, and that’s a big if, the Angels can get Pujols to produce at the level they thought he would produce when they gave him his contract and if they can keep Josh Hamilton on the field, they are going to have the most potent offense in baseball.
Bold Prediction: Pujols, Hamilton, and wunderkid Mike Trout all reproduce their best years (in the case of Trout, his only year) and they coast to the World Series, scoring 1,000 runs in the regular season and steamrolling the AL in the playoffs. Pujols becomes the new Mr. October, leading a second team to a World Series victory in three years, winning the World Series MVP in the process.
Oakland A’s – Weekend At Bernie’s II?
Okay that one isn’t really a question, but the name of a movie with a question mark after it. You caught me. The A’s last season were the darlings of baseball, a rag tag group of offensive misfits with a solid, but unexciting pitching staff that fell bass ackwards into a playoff spot last year. They’re a team of misfits and castoffs (appropriate to partially duplicate Moneyball after the movie adaptation comes out) that had a pitching staff lead them to the playoffs and the AL West crown.
There is a dance sensation, before Gangam Style and before the Harlem Shake meme, called the Bernie Lean. Let me tell you about the A’s and the Bernie Lean. They love it. There are bobble head nights of players doing the Bernie Lean. The Bernie Lean is based off the movements of Terry Kiser’s Bernie character, who was dead, in the Weekend at Bernie’s movies.
If you aren’t familiar with Weekend at Bernie’s, the pertinent information you need to know is that a couple of guys make it seem like a dead guy is alive through carcass puppetry to their own reward. This feels like an apt description of the A’s hitting and pitching, except the hitting is the carcass. They have a wholly unexciting, although likeable roster of hitters that was buoyed by their significantly above-par pitching. This plus some end-of-game comeback victories and antics propelled the A’s to play significantly over their heads last year.
After the success of Weekend at Bernie’s, somebody decided that a sequel would be a good idea. The question in Oakland is can they repeat their Bernie season? Conventional wisdom says that they should be able to repeat it, as pitching is, in theory, relatively consistent. The only issue is that the division is improved, what with Josh Hamilton’s addition to the Angels and everybody suddenly having the Astros to kick around. The A’s could field a team with the same talent level but face better competition in the Angels, who, in turn, face easier competition in the Astros. The Angels are less likely to lose to the Astros than the A’s are, which does not bode well for he Athletics.
Bold Prediction: The A’s return to form and their offense takes a massive step forward. Their ace Brett Anderson, who pitched few games last year after returning from injury turns on beast mode. He leads the A’s to an ALCS loss after a Cy Young worthy campaign. Weekend at Bernie’s II is an improvement on the original.
Seattle Mariners – Does Anybody care About the Seattle Mariners?
This was a hard one to figure out what to write about. After trading away Ichiro last year, the Mariners are a pile of nothing with a King Felix cherry on top. Writing about Seattle sports in an objective manor is difficult for me, mostly because of the Kings-to-Seattle situation and, well, Richard Sherman (and most Seahawks fans).
The Mariners have a lot of so-so talent on their roster, with some guys that are supposed to be good at some point in the future (much like the Astros). Oh, and they have Felix Hernandez. King Felix is easily one of the top-ten pitchers in baseball and the bright spot on the roster. There are a lot of “ifs” on the roster, if Jesus Montero gets his defense together, if Hisashi Iwakuma can repeat his performance from last year, if Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak finally live up to their expectations. The Mariners need a lot of things to go right to be relevant this year. A lot. And I don’t see a lot of them happening.
The AL West is suddenly competitive. The team that won the division last year, the A’s, are not the team that is most improved (the Angels) and it isn’t the team that has made two visits two the World Series out of the last three fall classics. The Astros, the other team in their division, is laughably bad and making their first foray into the American League. This leaves the Mariners, who are bad, not terrible, and not good. They are analogous to the Phoenix Suns in the NBA and the Tennessee Titans in the NFL.
Bold Prediction: All the ifs on the roster turn out to be great and they fall just short of the second Wild Card position. The team, much like the Astros, isn’t built to compete now. Competing now isn’t in the cards, just don’t tell Seattle sports fans, suddenly buoyed by the first-round defeat of the Seattle Seahawks and the failed attempt to revive the Seattle Supersonics.
Texas Rangers – Do They Win a World Series?
Always the brides maid, never the bride. The Rangers watched the Giants celebrate a World Series victory in 2010, then saw the sequel in 2011 starring the St. Louis Cardinals. Ron Washington’s squad eventually has to ask themselves if they’ll ever be the bride. It will be a rougher going this year than it has been yet for the Rangers, what with the aforementioned loss of Josh Hamilton to the in-division rival Angels. However, the Rangers still have a squad that can definitely compete for a title.
The loss of Josh Hamilton is huge, and I am going to make no effort to downplay the hole it makes in their lineup. However, the team still has many potent pieces on their offense; Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre are all tops offensively at their positions. Mitch Moreland may be poised to join them soon.
Their pitching is great, and many people are predicting great things for the second-year Japanese import Yu Darvish. They have the pieces to make a great run at the playoffs, and even stand a chance at making it to their third World Series in four years. The only problem is that they need someone to fill the spot that Josh Hamilton vacated. Granted, Hamilton was usually hurt when he was with them, he was generally healthy for the playoffs when it mattered. Some think that Leonys Martin may begin to fill Hamilton’s role, but I am skeptical that he has the requisite skill to do so.
The Rangers are one of the best teams in baseball, and they were without regular access to the services of Josh Hamilton. They shouldn’t have an issue with doing great this year as they are setup to be one of the premiere franchises in baseball for the next few years
Bold Prediction: The bridesmaid finally makes it down the aisle. Ron Washington’s team successfully competes without the specter of Josh Hamilton towering over them. They get hot at the right time and take home the requisite hardware that validates not resigning Josh Hamilton.
When I set out to write the Five Questions about the AL West, I didn’t realize the storylines available to me. This shows how interesting and different baseball can be. One division holds two potential World Series winners, a playoff contender and two absolute junkers. I’m hopefully going to get my five questions completed for the whole league soon. If not, we’re finally entering a time with something to talk about, so play ball!
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