Well--looks like my Giants post was saved over. Here's the Dodgers one, with the updated count. I'm trying to recover the Giants one but we'll see...
Taking a break from writing a about a team I love, this one is about a team I must, by contract, hate. The Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers were sold by the reality-tv-worthy and cash-strapped McCourts last year to a group led by NBA legend Magic Johnson. What transpired afterwards appeared to be Magic Johnson playing out a real-life fantasy baseball team (from 2010). They traded for SS Hanley Ramirez, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford & SP Josh Beckett. Then in the off-season they signed SP Zach Greinke to a massive free agent contract. Johnson certainly loosened the purse strings, adding to OF superstar Matt Kemp and ace Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers tooled up because they looked up in the division and saw their rivals leading the way and taking home the title two out of the last three years. The new ownership immediately committed themselves to winning. The only problem is every single one of the players I named, except for Clayton Kershaw, is surrounded by question marks. Their ceiling, with that talent, is going all the way. The only problem is their floor; the question marks surrounding those players could lead them all the way to fourth place in the division (nobody is finishing behind the Rockies in most scenarios).
1. Do Carl Crawford, Zach Greinke and Hanley Ramirez All Bounce Back From Injury?
Holy moly! That’s a lot of money tied up in a lot of injured players. Except for the Yankees, that is probably the most amount of money spent to be hurt or questionably effective due to injury at the beginning of the season.
Crawford is poised to start the season in Left Field, as he is already DHing and made his in-field debut on Saturday in the Cactus League. His season ended last year after getting Tommy John Surgery on his elbow. Prior to that, he posted a ho-hum slash line of .282/.306/.479 in his short stint with the Red Sox. He is known as a lethal speed/power combo but only had 5 stolen bases and 3 homeruns in 31 games. That paces out as roughly 25 stolen bases and 15 homeruns—after posting only 18 and 11 the year before. Crawford was not the same player he was for the Rays after he signed his massive contract. Hopefully for the Dodgers, the time away from the game has cleared Crawford’s head and he can return to form. The downside to Crawford is he could, potentially, be set now that he’s had his payday. He was struggling mightily in Boston before the injury, but time will tell if he’s over it.
Greinke and Hanley’s injuries are far more recent, and moderately more concerning going into the season for the boys in Chavez Ravine. Greinke felt some pain in his arm but he’s worked through it and by all reports he is doing okay now. We’ve heard that before, the only question is if this becomes a long-term issue that he tries to pitch through before requiring Tommy John, a la 2012 Brian Wilson. Hanley broke his thumb in the World Baseball Classic but does not have any muscle damage to his hand. The Dodgers hope he can return to form without any issues.
The 2012 Dodgers have a lot of payroll tied up in players who have recently been hurt or are coming off injury. The rest of their team has a few questions, as well.
2. Which Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez Show Up in 2013?
No matter how you slice it, even with Hanley Ramirez, these two are supposed to be the cornerstones of the offense. The only problem is that both these players had big 2011 campaigns that they followed up with disappointing ones in 2012. Gonzalez’s was especially putrid as he fell flat on his face in Boston. Kemp was disappointing after a near 40/40 season but he can hand wave that away with injuries. Gonzalez came alive a bit returning to the NL West after doing poorly for the Red Sox and the buzz saw that is the AL East. He should be more like Gonzalez in San Diego than the one who stunk it up in Boston.
The Dodgers can soar or absolutely plummet in 2012, and so much of their success or failure rides on these two players.
3. What About the Old Arms?
Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang & Ted Lilly make up the theoretical 6th, 7th and 8th starters for the Dodgers—bringing in Josh Beckett and Zach Greinke while having these guys on contract will cause this issue. That’s a lot of old talent to be sitting around twiddling their thumbs, maybe coming in for spot starts or middle relief. This is an interesting problem for the Dodgers to have, because if they’re buyers or sellers at the deadline, one or two of these guys can be traded. They’re all serviceable 4th or 5th starters around the league, and their usage is an interesting problem for the Dodgers to have. How they manage this surplus may determine the fate of their season.
4. League vs. Jansen?
Now, I think the closer role is garbage; you should save your best relief pitchers for high-leverage situations, whether or not it happens in the ninth inning. This is becoming the prevalent thought, thank God.
Brandon League was given a rather large contract in the offseason to be The Guy, which is my preferred nomenclature to The Closer. He was given the big bucks to go into high leverage situations and do the dirty work. The only problem is that the Dodgers had a guy who was already pretty good at that on their roster in Kenley Jansen. Now, Jensen isn’t making nearly as much money as League; the reason this is a question is can they turn away from League after committing $22.5 million to him over the next three seasons and turn to Jansen. Not learning when to cut bait on who is supposed to be your high leverage guy can cost a team a season, a manager a job, and a city a viable team (see Miami Marlins and the Heath Bell Problem).
5. Can They Catch Up?
The Dodgers are starting in a hole with Hanley Ramirez sidelined and Juan Uribe sliding into his place in the starting lineup. Uribe is… not very good. He’s so bad he escaped the Brian Sabean Special. It will be interesting to see if by the time the Ramirez returns if the Dodgers have held themselves together with bubblegum and popsicle sticks long enough that they aren’t in an irreparable hole. The second Wild Card spot will definitely help them here. If they fall apart before Ramirez comes back, they are still talented enough to try to vie for that fifth playoff spot.
Five questions for the Dodgers for 2013… They are the team that’s most difficult to place. They have immeasurable talent in all facets of their team, but all players come with a huge question mark. Not even addressed is Greinke’s history of mental health issues, alongside all the physical ailments and the players coming off down years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers languishing in the bottom 10 of the league, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they hoist the trophy in October. They have the most on their line when addressing their questions.
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