Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 1

Drumroll, please...

With their win yesterday and a Dodgers loss to the Rockies, the Giants currently sit at 84-68, and 2 games behind the NL West-leading LA Dodgers with ten games to play. They’re also the clubhouse leader for one of the two wildcard slots in the NL, up 2.5 games on the Pirates, who are, in turn, 2.5 games up on the Brewers. This makes them 5 games up on missing the playoffs with 10 to play. As I write this, however, the Dodgers are currently losing to the Chicago Cubs. And then I had to go back in and put this sentence in because the Dodgers took the lead back. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to assume everything is as the game started, with the Giants 2 games back of the Dodgers.

As of right now, MLB.com’s Baseball Prospectus-powered playoff probability odds chart has the Giants at a 99% chance of making the playoffs and the Dodgers a 100% chance… Forget the playoffs, can the Giants recover from their June (and July) swoon and actually win the division? Let’s take a look, shall we?

First, the Giants have won 10 of 16 games so far in September, including taking two of three from the Tigers and sweeping the Diamondbacks. Major contributions from youngsters Joe Panik, Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy alongside the bolstering of the pitching corps with the addition of Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit to the rotation have brought the Giants back from the brink of collapse. Up on the docket is likely the most important ten games of the season for the Giants. It’s split, and setup pretty well, for the Giants to control their destiny. Their magic number sits at nine, so if the Giants win out, it will include three Dodgers losses, giving them the division with a couple of games to go.

This will be part one of a three-part series, each outlining the upcoming series and how it will change the Giants’ post-season outlook.

Next up is the Padres, so let’s take a look how this series is likely to shape up!

Game One
Tim Hudson (9-11; 3.41 ERA) vs. Odrisamer Dispaigne (3-7; 3.63 ERA)

Hudson is the second Timmy this year to have a sudden collapse (though Lincecum’s was years in the making), and was bounced hard after giving up 6 earned runs in ONE INNING against the Dodgers on Saturday. Luckily, the Padres aren’t the Dodgers. Hudson’s last three starts have been absolute disasters, but he was walking into buzz saws in all three. At Coors Field and at the Tigers are unenviable starts for anybody to have to make. Hudson has faced the Padres twice this year, once in AT&T and once at Petco Park. In his start at Petco, Huddy managed to hold the Pads to three hits and one run over six innings.

Despaigne started off strong, but like Hudson, he has gotten lit up lately. He has given up 19 earned runs in his last 6 starts for a cool 5.18 ERA. Four of these starts, however, were on the road. Petco Park is a notorious pitchers’ park, and Despaigne benefits greatly. In his 7 home starts, he has only given up only 12 runs; compare this to his 8 starts and 32 runs & things don’t look good for the Giants.

Both pitchers will go solidly late into the game, and the Giants will take advantage of a pedestrian bullpen (now that they have traded Huston Street). The Giants’ relief pitchers carry bloated ERAs over the last couple of weeks, but solely because of the 17-0 shellacking the Dodgers laid on the Giants. Overall, I like the Giants bullpen over the Padres 'pen. This one goes to the Giants.

Prediction: 4-2 win

Game Two
Yusmeiro Petit (3-3; 5.18 ERA as a starter) vs. Andrew Cashner (4-7; 2.20 ERA)

Petit replaced Lincecum in the rotation, and since then, he has feasted on positive matchups and been absolutely destroyed by better competition. It’s very telling that he is the current record holder for most consecutive perfect innings and still has a mid-threes ERA for the season. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed a combined 2 earned runs in his two good matchup starts (vs. Colorado & vs. Arizona) and has a combined 11 runs in his other 2 starts (at Colorado & vs. the Dodgers).  Luckily, the Padres are a positive matchup for opposing pitchers; they’ve managed only 82 runs over the last 30 days, just about half of the #1 team, the Angels (166 runs), good for third worst in the league.

There’s only one problem, the Giants are facing an incredible pitcher in Andrew Cashner. His season has been almost an afterthought as the hurler missed a couple months with injury. He hasn’t given up more than 4 runs all season, and in his 5 starts since his return, he’s given up only 7 earned runs. He’s a pitch-to-contact ace, a 21^st century ace, who uses his stuff to suppress hits and the strikeouts are an afterthought.

Petit will give a valiant effort and Cashner will roll. This one will likely get turned off in the 7^th inning after Sandoval rolls another weak grounder to second base.

Prediction: 3-1 loss

Game Three
Ryan Vogelsong (8-11; 3.98 ERA) vs. Ian Kennedy (11-13; 3.80 ERA)

If you want the platonic ideal of a couple of middle-to-end of rotation starters, you’d end up somewhere between Ryan Vogelsong & Ian Kennedy, depending if you want more middle of the rotation (Kennedy) or 4^th or 5^th starter (Vogelsong). This game was an interesting one for me to try to figure out, but let’s give it a shot. Vogelsong, like Petit, seems to be a boom or bust player for the Giants. He’s given up 4, 0, 8, 2 and 3 runs in his last 5 starts. Before that, he was smooth sailing, allowing 6 runs in his prior 4 starts.

Kennedy is much more consistent, giving up 3, 4 or 5 runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. His strikeouts have still been there, but he has been giving up a good amount of runs to go with those strikeouts. While most of these starts have been on the road, he’s been seemingly immune to the park suppressing tendencies of Petco Park.

The Giants will win this one in the highest-scoring game of the series. The runs will total more than the rest of the series combined.

Prediction: 7-4 win.

Hopefully this has been a good read for you all! After this series, if things go the way I believe, the Giants will be closer to the NL West crown with 7 games to go (provided the Dodgers don't just keep winning...). I will be back after the Padres series to look at the real series for all the marbles: Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday at the Dodgers. If one team sweeps that series, it’s pretty much their division. This is the home stretch. This is why we watch baseball!

Go Giants!