Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 2

Pro Tip for Giants fans Wednesday

Maybe I’m cursed? I thought the Giants would be able to continue their moderate success of late as they went down to AT&T Park South in Petco (Giants fans routinely “take over” the park), but instead they were swept without a second thought by the Padres. The Dodgers continued their dominance, winning 3 of 4 in Chicago, averaging 9.25 runs per game over that series.

The Giants square off against the Boys in Blue to begin this week, and with the Dodgers’ number sitting at 3 (combined Dodgers wins and Giants losses), the Giants need to take 2 out of 3 for the Dodgers to not take the division against their traditional rivals.

Jake Peavy (3-0, 0.93 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Dan Haren (2-1, 3.00 ERA, 16 K last 3 starts)
On July 26, the Giants sat at 58-47 when they traded a couple of minor league arms for the former Padres ace. He’d been struggling compared to his prior stint in the NL West, and since coming back to the friendly confines of the Best Coast, he has amassed a 2.16 ERA, 1.050 WHIP & 6.9 K/9 over ten games with the Giants. He has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for the Giants’ pitching staff that has seen the demotion of Tim Lincecum, the death of Matt Cain and the implosion of Tim Hudson. He will pitch well in this game, and give the Giants a chance to win this one.

Unfortunately, the Giants face off against a guy who has been as good or better than Haren over the same stint. Since August 1st, Haren’s starts are punctuated by a 6 ER effort to start it, and a 5 ER effort his last time out (at Colorado, so toss that one out). In between those two starts, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in any given start and a 1.70 ERA, with a 34/7 K/BB ratio. The Giants are a free-swinging squad and with the high-K rate of Dan Haren, the Giants will struggle to get anything going. This combined with the Dodgers’ offense picking up tells me that this won’t be pretty.

LOSS. 2-4.

Madison Bumgarner (2-0, 2.37 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Zack Greinke (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 14 K last 3 starts)
With a loss on Monday, this game will be for the Giants’ lives in the NL West race. Luckily, they have their ace on the mound for the game. Bumgarner is a Dodger murderer in his career. Against the Bums, he has held them to a 0.582 OPS, which is flat bad. He strikes the Dodgers out 24.8% of the time he faces a guy with a white LA on his helmet. As a Giants ace he should, and does, dominate their biggest rival.  He won’t disappoint on Tuesday, and will twirl a gem for what is likely his last start of the regular season (they’ll likely have nothing to play for this weekend).

Up against Bumgarner is Zack Greinke, who has been great in his own right this season. Greinke against the Giants this year has been his usual dominant self, and fewer 5 ER starts all season than Hudson has in September (more on that below). Greinke is also prone to crumbling in the big game, and can easily lose focus. With the Giants playing for more than the Dodgers, they will (hopefully) eke this one out.

WIN. 3-2.

Tim Hudson (0-3, 10.32 ERA, 5 K in last 3 starts vs. Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.57 ERA, 26 K last 3 starts)
LOSS. Tears will flow. The Giants’ fans lamentations and gnashing of teeth that follow this game will cause the heavens themselves to shudder. Tim Hudson is rocked for 35 ER in 0.1 IP, and the Giants are forced to play against Kershaw until they don’t strike out, resulting in the first 33 K, 11 inning game. Hunter Pence, frustratedly, throws his bat at the ball as it leaves Kershaw’s hand, resulting (somehow) in a double and the game is mercifully ended. Dodgers win this game and the division.

Okay maybe it won’t go down that way, but I can’t think of a more lopsided way for the Dodgers to win the division than the most frustrating pitcher over the last couple of weeks versus His Grace, Clayton of Houses NL and AL, First of His Name, King of the Mounds and the First Pitch, Lord of the Six Divisions, and Protector of the Strike Zone.

I know I originally said this was going to be a three-part series, but I thought the Giants would hold up their end of the bargain and not stink up the joint in San Diego. This will be the last of my Giants’ regular season series breakdowns for 2014 (barring an unlikely sweep). I’ll take a deep, close look at the Wild Card play-in game later this week, but for now, try to not cry when the Dodgers celebrate on Wednesday.