Rob Manfred's Idea to "Fix Baseball" is Dangerous and Willfully Dense

New MLB Commish Rob Manfred enjoying the smell of his hands
Source: Hardball Talk

Today Rob Manfred officially took over as the MLB commissioner, ending the reign of The Lich King Bud Selig, who has ruled the land since 1992. Bud oversaw the players strike, he saw Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa using steroids to save baseball, then he decried their use and wanted the game “cleaned up.” Now he’s 80 and retired, and set to make $6 million a year to sit around and be old.

His replacement is Rob Manfred, and if lazy Wikipedia research tells me anything, it’s that Manfred joined MLB’s circle as an attorney for the owners in the labor strike. It’s not surprising, then, that after he became MLB’s COO, he was going to be Selig’s successor.

And that happened today, there was no last second change of heart from the commish, he’s riding off into the sunset. The problem is with Manfred. In an interview with ESPN’s Karl Ravech, he said the following:

“The second set of changes… [is] related to injecting additional offense into the game. Things like, for example, eliminating shifts.”

Wait, what? Ravech asks him if he’s really planning on eschewing the “forward-thinking, SABRmetric defensive shifts,” and Manfred responds with a head nod.

“That’s what I’m talking about, yes.”

“Let’s eliminate them?” Ravech asks. The new commissioner again nods his head in the affirmative.

The MLB commissioner believes that defense is killing the game, then. He wants massive slugfests and higher scores. This might be one of the more egregious stances a commissioner can take when it comes to admitting that defense is a key part of the game, too. He’s basically stating that it’s unfair for the mean defendermans to play well and stop the valiant hitters from fulfilling their God given right to hit the ball in the exact same spot repeatedly. Let’s not coach hitters to beat the shift… that would be too hard. Let’s just stop the arms race between offense and defense right here.

Manfred is proposing a unilateral SALT Treaty. The defense can no longer build up their armaments and respond to the hitters. Instead they must sit idly by as the batters become better and better. They must impotently stand by as hitters hit the ball to the exact same spot, every time. A spot that’s in their no-fly zone.

What, instead? They add white chalk outlines to the field? What if a defender leaves that box? Does it qualify as a ball? A balk? On a hit, does it become a ground rule double? That is artificial inflation of hitting statistics.

It’s profoundly idiotic, but Commissioner Manfred thinks it’s exactly what the game needs. Except it isn’t. I took a quick look at fangraphs.com, and pulled up the league BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for the last decade. It hasn’t appreciably changed in the last decade, including after the defensive shifts have taken over and ruined the game. It’s stayed comfortably between .295 and .303, with the median and mode both being .297 and the average being .298. That means that it’s been pretty much .297 for the last decade. If defensive shifts were causing the suppressed run-scoring environment that is blooming, then it would bear out in these numbers. It would show that the shift is making outs where there were previously hits. The batting average on balls in play would decline. Oddly enough, it went up in 2014 (just slightly).

What, then, is the problem? Well, batting average is down because a lot of players flail at garbage and pitchers are getting better and better at making sure that they throw enticing-looking garbage. The pitchers are currently winning the offense vs. defense arms duel and instead of, I don’t know, making the hitters better, the new commish wants the pitchers & defense to play with one hand tied behind their collective back.

I hope this is the only bad idea this commish has, he has some good ones (pitch timers, for example), but this is just pant-on-head silly and willfully dense as to what’s actually going on in the game. This could be a dangerous reign for Major League Baseball, which is a scary thought considering the last commissioner almost destroyed the game.

No, Terrell Owens isn’t the Best Wide Receiver in History

Owens seen praying to Jerrice, Lord of Receivers

Today I was made aware of a posting on Bleacher Report in which Terrell Owens was touted as the best Wide Receiver in history. The article asserts that Jerry Rice isn’t as good of a receiver because he benefited from having a better team around him. The writer asserts Jerry Rice isn’t as good as his numbers indicate because Ronnie Lott played safety. This is literally a thing he wrote. In complete seriousness.

He then goes on to completely disrespect Donovan McNabb, who was better than any QB Randy Moss had outside of Tom Brady when comparing him to Steve Young.

After that he triples down by asserting Owens’ All-Pro nods as actual reasons why TO is better than multiple Hall of Fame players. Maybe if the All-Pro roster compared more than what the players did relative to each other that would be a relevant fact, but it doesn't, so it isn't.

After all this, he quadruples down and cites Owens’ 2010, a year he played with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and Carson Palmer as the reason why Owens was great. The writer noted that Jerry Rice was disqualified as the GOAT because of his supporting cast, and that TO did it all without the same, then he goes and cites the year he had two great players at QB and opposite him at WR. He cites that the receiver was on pace to recreate his best season (2001, according to him) when Owens had his 2010 shortened due to injury. Sure. Except 2001 wasn’t TO’s best season. I’d put that at 2007, where he had 15 TDs and 90 yards per game on 85 receptions or 2000, when TO had 104 yards per game and 13 TDs. So sure, 2010 was just as good as his best season, 2001, as long as you believe “best season” is code for “best fantasy season because he scored more touchdowns,” and even then it wasn’t his best fantasy season.

He finalizes his argument by talking about Owens’ productivity and long career. All while discounting the fact that Jerry Rice played so long he almost twice as old as some of his teammates his final year.

His argument makes no sense whatsoever and his “points” are completely disjointed, garbled nonsense. Especially since he ignores one massive, massive factor when asserting that TO is the best, and it is a point that any good baseball analyst (yes, baseball) will tell you: Terrell Owens played in one of the friendliest passing game environments ever, just behind the current one.

In baseball they are called “Run Scoring Environments,” and they have names we all know. Dead Ball Era. Steroids Era. Expansion Era. Dilution of talent, changes in rules and other outside factors changed what an “average” baseball player could do at the plate. All you have to do is look at passing and receiving totals over the last decade to see that Owens benefitted from one of the best “Run Scoring Environments” for passing games in a long, long time.

And he wasn’t even one of the best receivers of that era. Terrell Owens’ 2000 season was the most yards of his career, ranked 51st of all time. I am going to use this fact to show two very different things. First, since 2000, that is the 28th best receiving season. For those that are curious, he also owns #70, #109 and #169 of all-time (only the top 250 are ranked). In the current increased yard-totaling environment, TO doesn’t even come close to posting the best single-season numbers.

Second: Jerry Rice has eight of the top 250 receiving season of all-time, including #2, 24, 36, 37, 38 and 46. TO’s best season would be Jerry’s seventh-best. All of these were done in much lower passing environments. One way to track how much better Rice was than TO that accounts for their different passing environments could be, perhaps, percentage of total passing yards during their career versus the rest of the league? Well, Jerry Rice owns that hands-down. During Rice’s career, he accounted for 1.18% of all the receiving yards in the NFL. During TO’s career, he accounted for just about 1.01%. This, by the way, includes Rice’s garbage twilight years and his shortened two game season. Remove the two game season and everything after his age 37 season (the year TO “retired”) and you get an incredible 1.3% of all receiving yards during his time in the NFL. In his best seasons relative to the rest of the league, Jerry Rice accounted for over 1.7% of the league’s yards (twice). In TO’s two best seasons, he accounted for about 1.4% (again, twice). TO’s peak seasons compared to his peers was just slightly better than Rice’s “cleaned up” career averages.

Also did you notice I barely mentioned Moss? The case of TO vs. Jerry is so strong in the case of Jerry I don’t even need to bring up any other receivers. Rice is the hands-down GOAT and all others are pure pretenders to the throne.

That includes you, Terrell.

(and I haven’t forgotten about my positional reviews, RB/FB is just so depressing it’s hard to get through it)

Stop. Just Stop.

In the Lions-Cowboys Wild Card Game this weekend there was a controversial call that has been the talk of the sports world in the last day or so. It can be seen above. Rookie LB Anthony Hitchens is covering veteran Tight End Brandon Pettigrew. The result of this play was a defensive pass interference call on Hitchens, which was then picked up. By the strictest letter of the law, it was pass interference. Hitchens never turned to make a play on the ball and it plunked him squarely in the back. That wasn’t the controversy. The controversy came in that the refs then decided to pick up the flag and decide that it wasn’t pass interference.

The football world exploded. People posted a months-old article about NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino getting off of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ party bus in August 2014. This was their proof that, “the fix was in.” Stop that. Just, stop. Stop. STOP. That play did not cost the Lions the game, and if you’re going to fix the game, why do it in such a stupidly blatant way? There’s one thing in life that can explain away most conspiracy theories, including this one. It’s a principal known as Hanlon’s Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

To understand why this quote is apt, one should turn to the methods used to pick the playoff umpiring crew for the NFL. Basically, they take the top performing officials at each position and cobble together a crew out of them. This works in baseball pretty well. If your job is to call balls and strikes, the second base umpire has almost no bearing on your ability to do so. In the NFL, the referees are responsible for holding 22 men accountable for their actions on the field. Much like the continuity of an offensive line strengthening the unit, the continuity of a referee crew strengthens their ability to make quick, and accurate calls. In this case, when they conferred, they determined that it was not a defensive pass interference penalty.

Was this call wrong? Probably. Was it devastating? Absolutely. Was it a vast conspiracy to make Ndamukong Suh cry? Absolutely not, but I wish it was true.

Did it cost the Lions the game?

Absolutely not.

The Detriot Lions orchestrated one of the most devastating and mind-boggling second-half collapses possible. The DPI no-call came at a point in time when the Lions were still winning the game. They were up 20-17 with just over 8 minutes left in the game when this happened. The no-call didn’t put seven points on the board for the Cowboys. It didn’t even put one point on the board for the Cowboys. The play that cost the Lions the game was the very next play. After the no-call on the defensive pass interference, the Lions sat at the Dallas 46-yard line, essentially midfield, with a fourth-and-one. If they move the ball three feet from their position, the game was theirs. What does Jim Caldwell do?

Wait, before you answer, please reference this information:

(yards per rush allowed during the 2014 regular season)

(the four plays prior to the DPI no-call)

Did you guess:
(a) Hard count to try to pull them offsides before punting
(b) Pass play
(c) Run play

If you know Jim Caldwell, you know he went with (a). He is conservative to an absolute fault, and this was a complete fault. His call in this situation epitomizes the issues I have with current coaching conventions. Too many NFL coaches play to not lose rather than to win. The Lions could have easily gotten one yard, and chose to not even try. They were running the ball well immediately prior to this play. Instead of going for the jugular and the win, they played to not lose. How did the Football Gods react?

Swiftly and spitefully.

Detroit punter Sam Martin completely and absolutely shanked the punt, and barely flipped the field on the Cowboys, giving the Lions a handful of yards of field position compared to if they had gone for it on fourth down and failed. The Cowboys marched down the field and scored.  Now, some might say that the no-call on the DPI put the Lions in this position. I can give them that. If DPI is called there, the Lions move much closer and likely score on the drive. The only problem is the Lions second half:

“Likely score on the drive” was not in the Lions game plan in the second half Sunday, as you can see here:

As you can see, they had as many turnovers in the second half (though they were gifted one back) as they had points. The Lions stunk in the second half Sunday.

The real reason why you can’t blame the no-call DPI? The Lions fumbled the ball twice in the last 3 minutes of the game. Twice! The first time, Demarcus Lawrence coughed it back up and the Lions recovered. Not content to let the game be competitive, they farted the ball away again just about a minute later. Demarcus Lawrence redeemed himself, recovering the fumble and punching their ticket to the NFC Divisional Round.

The defensive pass interference call was demoralizing, yes. It was curious, yes. It did not cost the Lions the game. The Lions had a complete inability to resemble an NFL offense in the second half. It is for that reason, and that reason alone, that the Lions have moved into off-season mode. For those of you still complaining about the DPI…

Please, stop.

The San Francisco 49ers - A Year in Review: Part 1 - The Quarterbacks

Colin Kaepernick broke free for a 90-yard TD in Week 16
Source: Kirby Lee  |  USA Today Sports

Jim Harbaugh is a Wolverine. Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree and Frank Gore are free agents. Justin Smith is pondering retirement. Vic Fangio & Greg Roman have both interviewed for positions different for the ones they held for the 2014 49ers. This weekend marked the official end of an era. (Jim) Harbaugh was seen on the Ravens sideline sporting Baltimore gear last night. With the end of 2014 comes a review of not just the season, but of where the 49ers currently stand and the potential offseason moves for the future. This kicks off a multi-part review of the 49ers on a position-by-position basis (except special teams, I doubt an in-depth look at gunners and the long snapper is needed).

Quarterback                      2014 Review: C+                                                               2015 and Beyond: B

                             The Players                        2014 Cap Hit                         2015 Cap Hit
Starter                                  Colin Kaepernick              $3,767,444                           $15,265,753
Backup                                 Blaine Gabbert                  $2,011,587                           N/A (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Third String                         Josh Johnson                     $    335,294                          N/A (Unrestricted Free Agent)

Last season, Colin Kaepernick signed what at first appeared to be a massive contract--$126 million. In actuality, it was more of a “pay as you play” contract, wherein Kaepernick has de-escalators if the 49ers, or Kaepernick, are not successful. This season was thoroughly not a success. All is not lost, however, as Kaepernick’s season was only a failure when compared to the lofty pre-season expectations for him. I myself even said in the preseason that Kaepernick had way too many weapons to have any more excuses. After the season did not live up to expectations, many fans were clamoring for Alex Smith, claiming they preferred Captain Checkdown to the young gunner. Please, for a moment, review these season-long stats:

                                                          Player A                               Player B
Completion Percentage               60.5%                                    61.3%
Total Passing Yards                       3,369                                     3,144
Touchdowns                                  19                                           17
Interceptions                                  10                                           5
Yards/Attempt                               7.0                                          7.1
Sacks                                                52                                           44
Rushing Yards                                 639                                         179
Yards Per Rush                                6.1                                          3.4

These two players are pretty similar except Player B has only 5 interceptions and Player A is a much more effective runner. Player A is 2014 Colin Kaepernick with his “disastrous” 2014 and Player B is 2011 Alex Smith—the last full season he had as the starting QB for the 49ers. I understand that fans are frustrated, and I was frustrated right alongside them. There are fans calling for the 49ers to bench Kaepernick or bring in a vague, theoretical quarterback as “competition.” Fans are getting a little ahead of themselves, as 2011 was Alex Smith's best full season he had with the 49ers. As you can see, Colin Kaepernick is essentially the same player (if not more frustrating because instead of 2 completions for 7 yards, it's a completion for 13 and a completion for 1 yard).

Here’s the simple fact of the matter: If replacing a quarterback was so easy, then a lot of QBs would not have jobs right now. There are less than 100 NFL quality QBs in the world (factoring in age and eligibility), and the cliffs of elite, to great, to good, to mediocre, to awful comes very quickly, well within the first 30 or so quarterbacks in the entire world. The 49ers should stick with Colin Kaepernick, but the pocket passer experiment should smartly be over. He works best on the run and improvising. He is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, and he never will be. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a fine quarterback for the 49ers in the future, and it certainly doesn’t mean he’s a bust or a fraud.

Kaepernick received a C+ for this season because he performed poorly by our expectations, but he produced the most passing yards since Jeff Garcia in 2001, the second most touchdowns (to himself) since Garcia’s 2001 and the most rushing yards by a 49ers quarterback ever. The offense was uninspired, disastrous and moved in fits and starts, but by and large, Colin Kaepernick was a perfectly good NFL quarterback, especially by the standards the 49ers have had at QB since Jeff Garcia.

Kaepernick’s backups, Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson, will likely not be with the team next year. Gabbert was dreadful in his time as a starter with the Jaguars, and is an unrestricted free agent. If he is back, it is likely for his same salary—roughly $2 million. If all goes according to plan, he never sees the field, and the backup QB is a moot point. The third string QB, Josh Johnson, was a Jim Harbaugh disciple, playing under Harbaugh at SDSU. Johnson is 28 years old and at this point, he is complete as an NFL product. He is likely gone as it is unlikely he fits into the new head coach/offensive coordinator’s plans.

The 49ers quarterback situation was slightly better than mediocre in 2014, but I have hopes for Kaepernick in 2015 and beyond. He gets a B rating for the future since we’ve already seen what he can do when the offense is properly schemed for his talents. The rest of the QB situation will be different in 2015. It’s likely the 49ers draft a project QB late (like BJ Daniels) and bring in a solid backup veteran (if the cap allows, otherwise it’s more of the Blaine Pain Train).

This marks the end of part one of the multi-part series taking an in-depth look at the 49ers and what went wrong (and right) with 2014. I hope you all enjoyed it and I will be back with Part 2 – The Running Backs.