Stop. Just Stop.

In the Lions-Cowboys Wild Card Game this weekend there was a controversial call that has been the talk of the sports world in the last day or so. It can be seen above. Rookie LB Anthony Hitchens is covering veteran Tight End Brandon Pettigrew. The result of this play was a defensive pass interference call on Hitchens, which was then picked up. By the strictest letter of the law, it was pass interference. Hitchens never turned to make a play on the ball and it plunked him squarely in the back. That wasn’t the controversy. The controversy came in that the refs then decided to pick up the flag and decide that it wasn’t pass interference.

The football world exploded. People posted a months-old article about NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino getting off of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ party bus in August 2014. This was their proof that, “the fix was in.” Stop that. Just, stop. Stop. STOP. That play did not cost the Lions the game, and if you’re going to fix the game, why do it in such a stupidly blatant way? There’s one thing in life that can explain away most conspiracy theories, including this one. It’s a principal known as Hanlon’s Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

To understand why this quote is apt, one should turn to the methods used to pick the playoff umpiring crew for the NFL. Basically, they take the top performing officials at each position and cobble together a crew out of them. This works in baseball pretty well. If your job is to call balls and strikes, the second base umpire has almost no bearing on your ability to do so. In the NFL, the referees are responsible for holding 22 men accountable for their actions on the field. Much like the continuity of an offensive line strengthening the unit, the continuity of a referee crew strengthens their ability to make quick, and accurate calls. In this case, when they conferred, they determined that it was not a defensive pass interference penalty.

Was this call wrong? Probably. Was it devastating? Absolutely. Was it a vast conspiracy to make Ndamukong Suh cry? Absolutely not, but I wish it was true.

Did it cost the Lions the game?

Absolutely not.

The Detriot Lions orchestrated one of the most devastating and mind-boggling second-half collapses possible. The DPI no-call came at a point in time when the Lions were still winning the game. They were up 20-17 with just over 8 minutes left in the game when this happened. The no-call didn’t put seven points on the board for the Cowboys. It didn’t even put one point on the board for the Cowboys. The play that cost the Lions the game was the very next play. After the no-call on the defensive pass interference, the Lions sat at the Dallas 46-yard line, essentially midfield, with a fourth-and-one. If they move the ball three feet from their position, the game was theirs. What does Jim Caldwell do?

Wait, before you answer, please reference this information:

(yards per rush allowed during the 2014 regular season)

(the four plays prior to the DPI no-call)

Did you guess:
(a) Hard count to try to pull them offsides before punting
(b) Pass play
(c) Run play

If you know Jim Caldwell, you know he went with (a). He is conservative to an absolute fault, and this was a complete fault. His call in this situation epitomizes the issues I have with current coaching conventions. Too many NFL coaches play to not lose rather than to win. The Lions could have easily gotten one yard, and chose to not even try. They were running the ball well immediately prior to this play. Instead of going for the jugular and the win, they played to not lose. How did the Football Gods react?

Swiftly and spitefully.

Detroit punter Sam Martin completely and absolutely shanked the punt, and barely flipped the field on the Cowboys, giving the Lions a handful of yards of field position compared to if they had gone for it on fourth down and failed. The Cowboys marched down the field and scored.  Now, some might say that the no-call on the DPI put the Lions in this position. I can give them that. If DPI is called there, the Lions move much closer and likely score on the drive. The only problem is the Lions second half:

“Likely score on the drive” was not in the Lions game plan in the second half Sunday, as you can see here:

As you can see, they had as many turnovers in the second half (though they were gifted one back) as they had points. The Lions stunk in the second half Sunday.

The real reason why you can’t blame the no-call DPI? The Lions fumbled the ball twice in the last 3 minutes of the game. Twice! The first time, Demarcus Lawrence coughed it back up and the Lions recovered. Not content to let the game be competitive, they farted the ball away again just about a minute later. Demarcus Lawrence redeemed himself, recovering the fumble and punching their ticket to the NFC Divisional Round.

The defensive pass interference call was demoralizing, yes. It was curious, yes. It did not cost the Lions the game. The Lions had a complete inability to resemble an NFL offense in the second half. It is for that reason, and that reason alone, that the Lions have moved into off-season mode. For those of you still complaining about the DPI…

Please, stop.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The AFC

The Bengals and Chargers square off on Wildcard Weekend Sunday; a rematch of their Week 13 skirmish wherein the Chargers fell to the Bengals 17-10. The Chargers hope for a very different result in their second matchup this season. They weren’t able to beat the Bengals in sunny San Diego, and with a potential for snow today in Cincinnati, the weather won’t be any better for the Chargers. Ultimately, the Bengals should run away with this one, but given what happened in the games yesterday, you can’t rule out the Chargers despite all signs pointing to a Bengals victory.

How the Chargers Win
1) Important Player: Keenan Allen

The upstart rookie has been a revelation to the beleaguered Chargers offense. He only received run because everybody in front of him on the depth chart suffered serious injuries. The third round pick out of Cal did not disappoint one bit. He stepped right into the starting lineup and started wowing people immediately. He will be the focus of the Bengals' secondary, and Philip Rivers will need to look his way often if the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. In their first matchup he went for 8 receptions for 106 yards. Throw a score on top of that and the Chargers may have pulled off the upset. The Chargers realize that their best receiver, and maybe best offensive weapon, needs to get force fed targets in order to move on to the next round.

2) Important Position Group: Safeties
The Bengals offense is pretty much built around deep bombs to A.J. Green. Green is a next-level talent and shutting him down will be vital to the Chargers if they want to take on divisional foes the Denver Broncos next weekend. The Safeties will be crucial to this process, as the Chargers Cornerbacks aren’t exceptional enough to stop Green on their own. In their loss earlier this year, Green went for 5 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. Not a massive day, but the theme for the Bengals in that game is they seemed to do just enough to win. The Chargers safeties will be vital in making sure Green doesn’t break free. They’ll likely roll coverage his way, or even bracket him to ensure he doesn’t go long uncovered.

3) Important Stat: Bengals Receptions (Non-AJ Green Category):

AJ Green is going to get his on Sunday. In order for the Chargers to pull off the victory, they have to concede that fact. They need to ensure that players like Andrew Hawkins and Marvin Jones don't have massive games. Green can't beat the Chargers all by himself, and in order to upset the Bengals, the defense will need to make sure that the other receivers don't have a field day while they try to focus on Green. If the Chargers manage to keep the non-AJ Green receivers down, they stand a chance of winning in Cincinnati. Given that they’ll be likely rolling coverage towards AJ Green, that means that the Cornerbacks will need to have a big day shutting down Hawkins and Jones to give the Chargers a fighting chance.

How the Bengals Win
1) Important Player: Andy “Good Andy” Dalton
I say “Good Andy” because Dalton is notoriously schizophrenic on the field. He’ll throw for a ton of touchdowns one week and will be physically incapable of throwing the ball to a Bengal player the next week. Bad Andy actually showed up during their last meeting; The Red Rifle managed only 190 yards passing on 23 attempts for a pick and a score. But, it was enough to beat the Chargers back in Week 13. The Chargers are playing much better than they were back then, so in order for the Bengals to come out ahead, Good Andy will need to show up on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
In order for Good Andy to show up, the Bengals offensive line will need to stand up to the Chargers pass rush. This will give Dalton time to bomb it out to AJ Green or Marvin Jones. In their last matchup, the highest rated players on the Bengals were three of their offensive lineman (according to profootballfocus.com). They’ll need to again make sure Dalton stays upright so that he can pick apart the Chargers’ secondary.

3) Important Stat: Points Scored
I’m not quite sure what it is, maybe Mom’s home cooking? The Bengals have been absolutely rolling at home, scoring a low of 34 points in their last four home games; this includes wins over the Colts, Browns, Jets, Vikings and Ravens. Their defense is superb, but the Bengals will live and die by their offensive production today, and their offensive production has been good near the friendly Ohio River. I know that “score a ton of points” isn’t exactly insightful, but the Bengals have been doing it on a completely different level within Ohio (Their 6-17 loss to the Browns not withstanding) and they’ll need to continue that roll to defeat the Chargers for the right to move on and face the Patriots.

The Chargers basically stole a win from the Chiefs last week, who were resting 20 of 22 starters in preparation for their matchup against the Colts yesterday. That didn’t work out so well for the Colts, as they collapsed spectacularly, allowing for the Colts to mount an all-time comeback win. I think that the Bengals will pull this one out on the back of “Good Andy” bombing it out to AJ Green, but I am beyond guessing scores. I didn’t exactly get that crazy Colts-Chiefs game even close. I expected defense, I got a shootout. I’ll just make my pick: Bengals. The Chargers' last loss was against Cincinnati, and they'll replicate the effort.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The NFC

In the only game this weekend that isn’t a rematch of a 2013 game, the Saints and Eagles—two of the NFL’s most potent offenses—face off. If the Saints were at home, they would be an overwhelming favorite; they aren’t at home, and they went a pedestrian 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. In fact, in non-dome games this year, they went only 2-4, barely eking out a victory in Tampa Bay & handling business in Chicago. They’re clearly a dome team (smart, given they play at least 9 games a year in a dome), but the compounding problem is that they’ll be playing in temperatures as low as 23 degrees, over 50 degrees colder than the friendly confines of the Superdome.

How the Saints Win
1) Important Player: Jimmy Graham
Outside of Graham, the Saints passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Marques Colston had a very respectable but un-Marques-Colston-like season. Darren Sproles continued to be a spark plug, ending the season with 71 receptions for 604 yards. The only problem is that Sproles would disappear for weeks at a time. Luckily, if the Saints have the Brees to Graham connection clicking, they should be just fine. A quick rundown of how important Jimmy Graham is to the Saints’ offense: he accounts for 19.28% of their receptions (86 of 446), 23.54% of their passing yards (1215 of 5162) and 41.03% of their passing touchdowns (16 of 39). If the Saints want a chance of winning in Philadelphia tonight, they’re going to have to go to Graham early and often.

2) Important Position Group: (Backup) Defensive Backs
The Saints lost two of their starting secondary players in the last seven games. They lost Jabari Greer to a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers in Week 10 and outstanding rookie Free Safety Kenny Vaccaro to a broken ankle in their game at Carolina.  Given the high pace and potency of the Philadelphia offense, the backup DBs who have taken their place will come in as extremely important members of the defensive unit. Their ability to step up to the plate on a handful of key plays may be the difference between an Eagles win or a Saints win.

3) Important Stastic: Yards Per Carry (Defense)
LeSean McCoy, if he knows his statistics, must be extremely excited for his matchup with the Saints’ running defense. They’re tied for fourth worst in the NFL (with the Chargers and Packers) at 4.6 YPC. This, combined with McCoy’s otherworldly rushing ability, means that Chip Kelly would be smart to dial up a ton of plays on the ground. If the Saints want to be able to move on to the next round, they’re going to have to figure out a way to cinch up that sagging run defense.

How the Eagles Win
1) Important Player*: Trent Cole
*Non LeSean McCoy Division

LeSean McCoy was the obvious answer here, but I outlined the Saints running game woes above & I didn’t want to just rehash those here. Outside of McCoy, Trent Cole may be the player most important to the Eagles’ success on Saturday. Cole is one of the Eagles’ sack leaders, but he spent his time since 2005 as a Defensive End, one of the big uglies with his hand in the grass. This season, Chip Kelly asked him to transition to Outside Linebacker. This position is still a pass-rush position, but with different tasks are expected of an OLB. Understandably, he’s struggled in pass coverage—that’s expected from a DE transitioning to an OLB, but his run defense and pass rush have been the best, combined, on the team, according to profootballfocus.com. Getting to Drew Brees fast and often will be the key to the Eagles’ defensive scheme if they stand a chance of winning Saturday.

2) Important Position Group: Tight Ends
DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant have been the main beneficiaries of the Nick Foles Experience, but Zach Ertz and Brent Celek will be key to the passing attack in this game. Ertz has extremely sure hands and Celek isn’t far behind him (5.26 and 8.57 catch rate—comparable to Julius Thomas & Vernon Davis, respectively). With the Saints worrying about Jackson & Cooper deep and McCoy rushing, the intermediate game should be available to the Eagles. This is where the Tight Ends shine. If the Eagles want to move on, they’ll need to recognize and exploit this matchup.

3) Important Statistic: Temperature
As outlined above, the Saints have been miserable outside of temperature-controlled environments, and Lincoln Financial Field tonight will be downright cold. This little bit of data is completely out of the Eagles’ hands, but this may be the most important statistic in the outcome of the game. The Saints played 10 games in domes this year (8 home games plus two road games at St. Louis & Atlanta) and 6 games outside. In the dome games, the average final score was 30.5 – 16.5; Saints. Inside, the Saints are averaging a two-touchdown victory. On the road, the final score was 18.17 – 23.16; opposition. Outside, the Saints are allowing an extra touchdown per game and muster almost half as many points. They’re also averaging 95 yards per game fewer outdoors. They’re a completely different offense outdoors. The defense also struggles outdoors, allowing 63 additional yards outside.  Granted, a lot of this can be attributed to road versus home, but the Saints lost only one game in a dome this year (including two road games) and went 2-4 outside of the dome. That’s more extreme than simple home/road splits.

This game should be a ton of fun to watch, with two high-flying offenses (second and fourth in yards per game, at just about 400 apiece) squaring off. The defenses will be hard pressed to keep up with the offenses that will be thrown out there this weekend. Ultimately, the Outdoor Saints will rear their ugly heads and won’t be coming away with the victory tonight.

Final Score: 38 – 31, Eagles.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The AFC

The craziness of Wild Card Weekend in the NFL kicks off Saturday with the Chiefs at the Colts to move on in the AFC bracket and the Saints travel to Philadelphia for the rights to go to either Seattle or Carolina next weekend. All the teams involved are, obviously, very good, but none of them are going to run away with the games.  Here’s a quick breakdown of what the Chiefs and Colts need to do to win their game. With the Eagles and Saints being the night game, their preview will be available tomorrow before their game.

The Chiefs and Colts game is a rematch of their Week 16 matchup, in which the Colts sauntered into Arrowhead Stadium, held the Chiefs to 7 points and put up 23 themselves. With the vast majority of the Chiefs starters sitting in Week 17 (they were locked into the fifth seed), the Chiefs’ players have been sitting and waiting for this rematch for a full two weeks. The Colts reeled following the loss of Reggie Wayne, but seem to have righted the ship. After starting off 9-0, the colts stumbled into the playoffs, going 2-5 in their last 7 games after their bye.

How the Chiefs Win

1) Important Player: Jamaal Charles
Much like the rest of the 2013 season, the Chiefs will live and die on Saturday on the legs of Jamaal Charles. He was third in the league with 329 touches, and was in the same position in all-purpose yards (second if you ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s return yardage. The 132 all-purpose yards he averaged this year will be vital to the Chiefs if they want to win on Sunday. His league-leading 19 touchdowns prove his value in this offense. The Colts were middle-of-the-pack in pass coverage and run coverage, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. For the Chiefs to win on Saturday, Charles needs to take advantage of the neutral matchup.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Before the Bye, the Chiefs boasted one of the stingiest passing offenses in the league, allowing just about 208 yards per game. Since the bye, they’re allowing an extra #1 receiver’s worth of yards through the air, increasing that 208 to just about 298 yards per game. To win against the Colts, it will be vital that the Chiefs stop the pass and force them to rely on Donald Brown and Trent Richardson on the ground. Brown isn’t very impressive as a back, and Trent Richardson makes him look like Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs can adequately shut down the pass, they just may be able to grit this one out.

3) Important Statistic: Turnovers
This one is important for both sides of the ball. In their 11 wins this year, the Chiefs averaged a whole two fewer turnovers per game than their opposition. In their losses, they are averaging 0.6 turnovers more per game than their opposition. Limiting the turnovers and creating them on the defense will be key in the Chiefs taking this one down.

How the Colts Win
1) Important Player: T.Y. Hilton
Since Reggie Wayne went down, the Colts have leaned heavily on their young Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton. Other receivers, such as Da’Rick Rogers and (especially) Darius Heyward-Bey are not nearly as talented. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s Stanford connections Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener came on late at the end of the season, but Hilton will be vital if the Colts hope to win on Sunday. He’ll need to take advantage of the aforementioned struggling cornerbacks in order to help the Colts win on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Pass Rushers
Specifically, Robert Mathis. Alex Smith, with time, is a smart quarterback who has just enough physical talent to make the smart pass where it needs to be. Get him under pressure and he is just not the same quarterback. Smith’s game is predicated on making smart, short, accurate passes and not throwing interceptions. Not throwing interceptions usually is in the form of Smith holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack. This will make the Colts’ pass rushers vital to their success on Sunday (especially with rookie OT Eric Fisher officially OUT for Saturday’s game).

3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Carry
The Running Back position has been quite volatile for the Colts this year. They started off with Ahmad Bradshaw being backed up by Vick Ballard with Donald Brown as the third back. Bradshaw and Ballard were placed on season-ending IR and the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. The current situation is an amorphous timeshare with it being (relatively) unclear who is the lead back. Brown is outperforming Richardson this year, but Richardson is still getting carries out of sheer stubbornness.

My Pick: The Colts dismantled the Chiefs two years ago at Arrowhead. At the same time, Andy Reid is incredible after byes. It’ll be a very hard-fought game, but I think the Chiefs will gut it out.

Final Score: 26-24.