The craziness of Wild Card Weekend in the NFL kicks off Saturday
with the Chiefs at the Colts to move on in the AFC bracket and the Saints
travel to Philadelphia for the rights to go to either Seattle or Carolina next
weekend. All the teams involved are, obviously, very good, but none of them are
going to run away with the games. Here’s
a quick breakdown of what the Chiefs and Colts need to do to win their game.
With the Eagles and Saints being the night game, their preview will be
available tomorrow before their game.
The Chiefs and Colts game is a rematch of their Week 16
matchup, in which the Colts sauntered into Arrowhead Stadium, held the Chiefs
to 7 points and put up 23 themselves. With the vast majority of the Chiefs starters
sitting in Week 17 (they were locked into the fifth seed), the Chiefs’ players
have been sitting and waiting for this rematch for a full two weeks. The Colts
reeled following the loss of Reggie Wayne, but seem to have righted the ship.
After starting off 9-0, the colts stumbled into the playoffs, going 2-5 in
their last 7 games after their bye.
How the Chiefs Win
1) Important Player: Jamaal Charles
Much like the rest of the 2013 season, the Chiefs will live and die on Saturday on the legs of Jamaal Charles. He was third in the league with 329 touches, and was in the same position in all-purpose yards (second if you ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s return yardage. The 132 all-purpose yards he averaged this year will be vital to the Chiefs if they want to win on Sunday. His league-leading 19 touchdowns prove his value in this offense. The Colts were middle-of-the-pack in pass coverage and run coverage, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. For the Chiefs to win on Saturday, Charles needs to take advantage of the neutral matchup.
Much like the rest of the 2013 season, the Chiefs will live and die on Saturday on the legs of Jamaal Charles. He was third in the league with 329 touches, and was in the same position in all-purpose yards (second if you ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s return yardage. The 132 all-purpose yards he averaged this year will be vital to the Chiefs if they want to win on Sunday. His league-leading 19 touchdowns prove his value in this offense. The Colts were middle-of-the-pack in pass coverage and run coverage, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. For the Chiefs to win on Saturday, Charles needs to take advantage of the neutral matchup.
2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Before the Bye, the Chiefs boasted one of the stingiest passing offenses in the league, allowing just about 208 yards per game. Since the bye, they’re allowing an extra #1 receiver’s worth of yards through the air, increasing that 208 to just about 298 yards per game. To win against the Colts, it will be vital that the Chiefs stop the pass and force them to rely on Donald Brown and Trent Richardson on the ground. Brown isn’t very impressive as a back, and Trent Richardson makes him look like Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs can adequately shut down the pass, they just may be able to grit this one out.
Before the Bye, the Chiefs boasted one of the stingiest passing offenses in the league, allowing just about 208 yards per game. Since the bye, they’re allowing an extra #1 receiver’s worth of yards through the air, increasing that 208 to just about 298 yards per game. To win against the Colts, it will be vital that the Chiefs stop the pass and force them to rely on Donald Brown and Trent Richardson on the ground. Brown isn’t very impressive as a back, and Trent Richardson makes him look like Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs can adequately shut down the pass, they just may be able to grit this one out.
3) Important Statistic: Turnovers
This one is important for both sides of the ball. In their 11 wins this year, the Chiefs averaged a whole two fewer turnovers per game than their opposition. In their losses, they are averaging 0.6 turnovers more per game than their opposition. Limiting the turnovers and creating them on the defense will be key in the Chiefs taking this one down.
This one is important for both sides of the ball. In their 11 wins this year, the Chiefs averaged a whole two fewer turnovers per game than their opposition. In their losses, they are averaging 0.6 turnovers more per game than their opposition. Limiting the turnovers and creating them on the defense will be key in the Chiefs taking this one down.
How the Colts Win
1) Important Player: T.Y. Hilton
Since Reggie Wayne went down, the Colts have leaned heavily on their young Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton. Other receivers, such as Da’Rick Rogers and (especially) Darius Heyward-Bey are not nearly as talented. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s Stanford connections Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener came on late at the end of the season, but Hilton will be vital if the Colts hope to win on Sunday. He’ll need to take advantage of the aforementioned struggling cornerbacks in order to help the Colts win on Sunday.
1) Important Player: T.Y. Hilton
Since Reggie Wayne went down, the Colts have leaned heavily on their young Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton. Other receivers, such as Da’Rick Rogers and (especially) Darius Heyward-Bey are not nearly as talented. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s Stanford connections Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener came on late at the end of the season, but Hilton will be vital if the Colts hope to win on Sunday. He’ll need to take advantage of the aforementioned struggling cornerbacks in order to help the Colts win on Sunday.
2) Important Position Group: Pass Rushers
Specifically, Robert Mathis. Alex Smith, with time, is a smart quarterback who has just enough physical talent to make the smart pass where it needs to be. Get him under pressure and he is just not the same quarterback. Smith’s game is predicated on making smart, short, accurate passes and not throwing interceptions. Not throwing interceptions usually is in the form of Smith holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack. This will make the Colts’ pass rushers vital to their success on Sunday (especially with rookie OT Eric Fisher officially OUT for Saturday’s game).
Specifically, Robert Mathis. Alex Smith, with time, is a smart quarterback who has just enough physical talent to make the smart pass where it needs to be. Get him under pressure and he is just not the same quarterback. Smith’s game is predicated on making smart, short, accurate passes and not throwing interceptions. Not throwing interceptions usually is in the form of Smith holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack. This will make the Colts’ pass rushers vital to their success on Sunday (especially with rookie OT Eric Fisher officially OUT for Saturday’s game).
3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Carry
The Running Back position has been quite volatile for the Colts this year. They started off with Ahmad Bradshaw being backed up by Vick Ballard with Donald Brown as the third back. Bradshaw and Ballard were placed on season-ending IR and the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. The current situation is an amorphous timeshare with it being (relatively) unclear who is the lead back. Brown is outperforming Richardson this year, but Richardson is still getting carries out of sheer stubbornness.
The Running Back position has been quite volatile for the Colts this year. They started off with Ahmad Bradshaw being backed up by Vick Ballard with Donald Brown as the third back. Bradshaw and Ballard were placed on season-ending IR and the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. The current situation is an amorphous timeshare with it being (relatively) unclear who is the lead back. Brown is outperforming Richardson this year, but Richardson is still getting carries out of sheer stubbornness.
My Pick: The
Colts dismantled the Chiefs two years ago at Arrowhead. At the same time, Andy
Reid is incredible after byes. It’ll be a very hard-fought game, but I think
the Chiefs will gut it out.
Final Score: 26-24.
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