There has been much ado this week about the game-time
temperatures at Lambeau Field tomorrow. They’re rumored to rival the Freezer
Bowl. It will be the high when it’s just 5 degrees above zero, so you know it
will be cold. Rumored wild chill factors will plunge it as low as -50 degrees.
If you’re not sure, that’s very, very cold. Basically, every person who isn’t
wearing sleeves is being kind of stupid. Eddie Lacy said he won’t be wearing
sleeves. That will be kind of stupid. I imagine a lot of players will
immediately start bundling up once they get their first taste of the action
Sunday. For the Packers, they are hoping to get vengeance for three-straight
losses to the 49ers. For the 49ers, they are looking to replicate their
offensive efforts from their last two meetings. In the playoffs last year,
Colin Kaepernick set QB rushing records, and in Week 1 this year, he threw for
over 400 yards. Offensive Coordinator Dom Capers hasn’t had an answer for
Kaepernick in meetings one and two; he & Head Coach Mike McCarthy are
hoping the third time’s the charm.
For the Niners, they are among the NFL's hottest teams, winning six straight, including impressive wins over division foes in Seattle and Arizona. They're rolling, and they hope to continue rolling into the Meadowlands in a few weeks. Make no mistake, this team is built for, and ready to return to the Super Bowl.
How the Packers Win:
1) Important Player: A.J. Hawk
The Packers’ best defensive player, Clay Matthews, will be out of the game with a broken thumb. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Packers’ defense. Well, bigger than the gaping hole there usually is in the middle of the Packers’ defense when Frank Gore & Colin Kaepernick are involved. Matthews is one of the best linebackers in the league, so AJ Hawk has big shoes to fill as the de-facto new leader of the LB corps. He has the unenviable task of trying to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. How he comes to play will be a massive factor in the result of the game.
1) Important Player: A.J. Hawk
The Packers’ best defensive player, Clay Matthews, will be out of the game with a broken thumb. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Packers’ defense. Well, bigger than the gaping hole there usually is in the middle of the Packers’ defense when Frank Gore & Colin Kaepernick are involved. Matthews is one of the best linebackers in the league, so AJ Hawk has big shoes to fill as the de-facto new leader of the LB corps. He has the unenviable task of trying to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. How he comes to play will be a massive factor in the result of the game.
2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
The offensive line was a huge issue for the Packers in 2012. Rodgers was put on his back 51 times last year. This year isn’t much better; the Packers O-Line allowed 45 sacks. Going up against a front-seven that likes to get after it with space eaters in Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and sack masters in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis get in on it occasionally, too. What does this all add up to? If the Packers O-Line can’t hold up, it’ll be a long day for the Packers.
The offensive line was a huge issue for the Packers in 2012. Rodgers was put on his back 51 times last year. This year isn’t much better; the Packers O-Line allowed 45 sacks. Going up against a front-seven that likes to get after it with space eaters in Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and sack masters in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis get in on it occasionally, too. What does this all add up to? If the Packers O-Line can’t hold up, it’ll be a long day for the Packers.
3) Important Stat: Rushing Yards
The Packers are traditionally a passing team. Despite their home stadium, they have been built for decades on the shoulders of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. They added another dimension this year in rookie Eddie Lacy. He has been a revelation for the Packers’ offense, and is likely the only reason they are in the playoffs right now. When Rodgers went down, the Packers trotted out a cavalcade of failure in Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn (their own Cerberus of Suck). Lacy just kept running and running, keeping them afloat for the return of Rodgers. Given that the weather precludes an aerial attack, the Packers will need to rely on Lacy. If he has a big game, they will be in good position to win the game. Having a good game isn’t as easy as it sounds against the stout 49ers defense. They give up more rushing yards than they have in the past, but they still ranked fourth in the league at 95.9 yards per game. The Pack needs Lacy to come through huge for them.
The Packers are traditionally a passing team. Despite their home stadium, they have been built for decades on the shoulders of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. They added another dimension this year in rookie Eddie Lacy. He has been a revelation for the Packers’ offense, and is likely the only reason they are in the playoffs right now. When Rodgers went down, the Packers trotted out a cavalcade of failure in Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn (their own Cerberus of Suck). Lacy just kept running and running, keeping them afloat for the return of Rodgers. Given that the weather precludes an aerial attack, the Packers will need to rely on Lacy. If he has a big game, they will be in good position to win the game. Having a good game isn’t as easy as it sounds against the stout 49ers defense. They give up more rushing yards than they have in the past, but they still ranked fourth in the league at 95.9 yards per game. The Pack needs Lacy to come through huge for them.
How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Colin Kaepernick
As Kaepernick goes, so go the 49ers. This year, when Kaepernick has his truly dreadful games, get destroyed. In their four losses this year, they scored under ten points three times. In their 12 wins, they averaged over 30 points per game. Clearly, this starts and ends with the 49ers’ signal caller. Kaepernick has become much better during the 49ers’ recent six-game win streak and the return of Michael Crabtree. He’s much more confident and poised and it shows that he’s a completely different quarterback with Crabtree on the field. This gives him three viable receiving options in Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. For the 49ers to win today, Kaepernick needs to continue his recent good play and the 49ers need to switch up the play calling, like they did in Week 17’s first quarter, where Boldin & rookie Quinton Patton both ran end-arounds. Patton’s run was for 26 yard rush made him the 49ers’ leading rusher last weekend, which tells you all you need to know about what was going on with the rushing game. That was a huge win for the 49ers because it showed that even if the running game isn’t working, Kaepernick is capable of pulling out a victory for the red and gold.
1) Important Player: Colin Kaepernick
As Kaepernick goes, so go the 49ers. This year, when Kaepernick has his truly dreadful games, get destroyed. In their four losses this year, they scored under ten points three times. In their 12 wins, they averaged over 30 points per game. Clearly, this starts and ends with the 49ers’ signal caller. Kaepernick has become much better during the 49ers’ recent six-game win streak and the return of Michael Crabtree. He’s much more confident and poised and it shows that he’s a completely different quarterback with Crabtree on the field. This gives him three viable receiving options in Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. For the 49ers to win today, Kaepernick needs to continue his recent good play and the 49ers need to switch up the play calling, like they did in Week 17’s first quarter, where Boldin & rookie Quinton Patton both ran end-arounds. Patton’s run was for 26 yard rush made him the 49ers’ leading rusher last weekend, which tells you all you need to know about what was going on with the rushing game. That was a huge win for the 49ers because it showed that even if the running game isn’t working, Kaepernick is capable of pulling out a victory for the red and gold.
2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Carlos Rogers is most likely going to be out at Lambeau, and his backup, Eric Wright, pulled up lame at practice and is questionable to play. That means a copious amount of Perrish Cox, which means that the 49ers have developed a definite area of weakness over the past week. Luckily, the weather is going to be a significant factor tomorrow; cold stunts passing games, so hopefully the Niners missing two CBs should be mitigated somewhat by relying on the running game. If the Packers instead decide that they are going to pass it, it could be a disaster. Rogers and Wright usually covered the slot receivers in 2013, and on the Packers, that means that you’re going to be guarding Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson, two of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the best receivers on the Packers. Unless the 49ers rotate accordingly, it could be a long day for the defense.
Carlos Rogers is most likely going to be out at Lambeau, and his backup, Eric Wright, pulled up lame at practice and is questionable to play. That means a copious amount of Perrish Cox, which means that the 49ers have developed a definite area of weakness over the past week. Luckily, the weather is going to be a significant factor tomorrow; cold stunts passing games, so hopefully the Niners missing two CBs should be mitigated somewhat by relying on the running game. If the Packers instead decide that they are going to pass it, it could be a disaster. Rogers and Wright usually covered the slot receivers in 2013, and on the Packers, that means that you’re going to be guarding Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson, two of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the best receivers on the Packers. Unless the 49ers rotate accordingly, it could be a long day for the defense.
3) Important Stat: Turnover Margin
In their 12 wins this year, the 49ers are averaging an over 2:1 turnover margin. In their 4 losses, they are averaging 2.5 offensive turnovers and 1.5 defensive turnovers. To the 49ers, protecting the ball and going after the opposition is the key to their success. They need to continue that on Sunday in order to move on and play the Panthers next week in Charlotte. That will be difficult on Sunday, as the Packers went seven games this season with one or fewer touchdowns. Turnovers will be extremely important to the 49ers’ success this weekend, and despite the Packers being stingy with the football, they actually gave up the rock twice in Week 1. While it’s a longshot for the 49ers to force multiple turnovers tomorrow, it isn’t outside the realm of reality.
In their 12 wins this year, the 49ers are averaging an over 2:1 turnover margin. In their 4 losses, they are averaging 2.5 offensive turnovers and 1.5 defensive turnovers. To the 49ers, protecting the ball and going after the opposition is the key to their success. They need to continue that on Sunday in order to move on and play the Panthers next week in Charlotte. That will be difficult on Sunday, as the Packers went seven games this season with one or fewer touchdowns. Turnovers will be extremely important to the 49ers’ success this weekend, and despite the Packers being stingy with the football, they actually gave up the rock twice in Week 1. While it’s a longshot for the 49ers to force multiple turnovers tomorrow, it isn’t outside the realm of reality.
The Niners have their work cut out for them against a
Packers team that was missing several key pieces throughout the season & is
stronger than their record indicates. Weather will also play a significant
factor in what happens in Green Bay, and despite their natural climate, the
49ers are a “cold weather” team. Their success is built through the running
game and defense, which are immensely “portable,” which, hopefully, means that
the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be a massive task to overcome for them. I’m
going with the homer pick here: Niners.
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