The Colts and the Patriots square off today for what feels
like an annual playoff tradition. The only problem is that this has
traditionally been a matchup between the Peyton Manning-led Colts and the Tom
Brady-led Patriots. Manning has moved on to Denver, and his replacement, Andrew
Luck, is hoping that he will have better luck against Brady than Manning did.
In their 13 Colts vs. Patriots matchups, Brady holds the edge, 9-4 (including a
2-1 edge in the playoffs). The Colts vs. the Patriots has become one of the
marquee matchups in the AFC on the heels of the Manning-Brady showdown. Given
the anticipated conditions and the current lineups of the two squads, it
appears as though this won’t be the QB-off we’ve gotten used to when they
square off. A terrible forecast and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected
(depending on your source). If there is going to be a lot of scoring here, it
isn’t going to be through the air.
How the Colts Win:
1) Important Player: Andrew Luck
It’s hard to believe when you look at him and the way he conducts himself on the field, but Andrew Luck is at the tail-end of his second year in the NFL. He has a short memory that is key for quarterbacks to be successful. In this game, he’ll need to play near-perfect after nearly losing the game last week. I contend that the quarterback lived up to his name last week, including a fumble that bounced off a defender into his hands for a score. He’ll need some of that juju as he takes on a weakened Patriots defense that will be, suddenly, without LB Brandon Spikes. Luck is not only a great physical specimen, he is a very smart quarterback. The Patriots will have a different look with different players out there. The Colts will need him to use his brain to perfection to pull out a win in Foxborough.
1) Important Player: Andrew Luck
It’s hard to believe when you look at him and the way he conducts himself on the field, but Andrew Luck is at the tail-end of his second year in the NFL. He has a short memory that is key for quarterbacks to be successful. In this game, he’ll need to play near-perfect after nearly losing the game last week. I contend that the quarterback lived up to his name last week, including a fumble that bounced off a defender into his hands for a score. He’ll need some of that juju as he takes on a weakened Patriots defense that will be, suddenly, without LB Brandon Spikes. Luck is not only a great physical specimen, he is a very smart quarterback. The Patriots will have a different look with different players out there. The Colts will need him to use his brain to perfection to pull out a win in Foxborough.
2) Important Position Group: Non-T.Y. Hilton Receivers
The book on Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes is that he likes to take away what you do best. After last week’s game in Indianapolis, that looks to be going towards T.Y. Hilton. LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener will need to come up huge in order for the Colts to come away with the victory in this one. Luckily, Luck is adept at finding the open receivers—something he’s been forced to learn quickly with his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, going out in the middle of the season. He responded by targeting mostly Hilton, but has gotten unsung players Whalen and Rogers in the mix, making sure he can beat opposing defenses when they shut down Hilton.
The book on Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes is that he likes to take away what you do best. After last week’s game in Indianapolis, that looks to be going towards T.Y. Hilton. LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener will need to come up huge in order for the Colts to come away with the victory in this one. Luckily, Luck is adept at finding the open receivers—something he’s been forced to learn quickly with his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, going out in the middle of the season. He responded by targeting mostly Hilton, but has gotten unsung players Whalen and Rogers in the mix, making sure he can beat opposing defenses when they shut down Hilton.
3) Important Statistic: Sacks
More specifically, Robert Mathis. The Colts’ ability to get their best pass rusher into the backfield to disrupt opposing offenses is the basis of their defense. They’ll need Mathis to have a good game and the rest of the defense to hold to prevent Brady from zipping the ball out when Mathis gets close. This will be a question of getting Brady onto his back early and often in order for him to prevent taking advantage of the banged up Colts secondary.
More specifically, Robert Mathis. The Colts’ ability to get their best pass rusher into the backfield to disrupt opposing offenses is the basis of their defense. They’ll need Mathis to have a good game and the rest of the defense to hold to prevent Brady from zipping the ball out when Mathis gets close. This will be a question of getting Brady onto his back early and often in order for him to prevent taking advantage of the banged up Colts secondary.
How the Patriots Win:
1) Important Player: Tom Brady (duh)
Throughout the years, Tom Brady has played with a varied cast of receivers. He’s had superstars in Randy Moss and he’s had complete schlubs like Aaron Dobson. The one thing that has stayed true has been Tom Brady’s ability to control the offense and produce. No matter who you put around him, Brady produces year in and year out. As long as Brady plays, he is the most important player for the Patriots’ success, bar none.
1) Important Player: Tom Brady (duh)
Throughout the years, Tom Brady has played with a varied cast of receivers. He’s had superstars in Randy Moss and he’s had complete schlubs like Aaron Dobson. The one thing that has stayed true has been Tom Brady’s ability to control the offense and produce. No matter who you put around him, Brady produces year in and year out. As long as Brady plays, he is the most important player for the Patriots’ success, bar none.
2) Important Position Group: Running Backs
The weather is going to be atrocious today, and that means that whichever team wins the ground game will likely win the actual game. The running back stable of Ridley, Blout & Vereen is one of the best around, and is definitely better than Donald Brown & Trent Richardson. Brady may be the most important player for the Patriots, but his decision-making to defer to the running backs may mean the difference between a Colts win and a Patriots win. If the weather was better, it wouldn’t be as important for the Patriots to have a successful running game. However, the weather will be terrible, so the running backs will need to be stupendous.
The weather is going to be atrocious today, and that means that whichever team wins the ground game will likely win the actual game. The running back stable of Ridley, Blout & Vereen is one of the best around, and is definitely better than Donald Brown & Trent Richardson. Brady may be the most important player for the Patriots, but his decision-making to defer to the running backs may mean the difference between a Colts win and a Patriots win. If the weather was better, it wouldn’t be as important for the Patriots to have a successful running game. However, the weather will be terrible, so the running backs will need to be stupendous.
3) Important Statistic: Defensive Yards Per Carry
As I already outlined with the above point, the weather is going to be horrendous. Both teams will need to take to the ground for success in this one. The defensive line and linebacking corps of the Patriots has been decimated, including the recent loss of Brandon Spikes. If you’re the Colts, and you look at the fact that you have to beat the Patriots on the ground, you’re somewhat okay with that. The middle is absolutely decimated, and, while the Brown-Richardson combo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, they’ll be key this game. If the Patriots can hold the line and contain the running backs for the Colts, they’ll be punching their card to the AFC Championship Game.
As I already outlined with the above point, the weather is going to be horrendous. Both teams will need to take to the ground for success in this one. The defensive line and linebacking corps of the Patriots has been decimated, including the recent loss of Brandon Spikes. If you’re the Colts, and you look at the fact that you have to beat the Patriots on the ground, you’re somewhat okay with that. The middle is absolutely decimated, and, while the Brown-Richardson combo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, they’ll be key this game. If the Patriots can hold the line and contain the running backs for the Colts, they’ll be punching their card to the AFC Championship Game.
This has been an up-and-down season for the Colts, who have
beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos and Chiefs. They’re truly Giant Killers, but
they also had down games—losing to the Rams and the Dolphins along the way.
Andrew Luck and the rest of the team have made a great run of it this year.
However, who am I to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? It’ll be uglier
than ugly, but the Patriots have been built around their running game for a few
weeks now. With an impressive stable of backs up against Donald Brown and Trent
Richardson… Give me the Patriots.
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