In a rematch of a Week 10
defensive slug fest, the 49ers travel to Charlotte tomorrow to take on the NFC
South Champion Carolina Panthers. The 49ers’ last loss in Candlestick ever will
ultimately be that loss to the Panthers. The Niners know that’s the case and in
the words of QB Colin Kaepernick, “[the 49ers] owe them.” In the first game,
the 49ers actually scored more times than the Panthers, but they were all field
goals off the leg of Phil Dawson. There was one play that made the game last
time, a 27 yard touchdown run by DeAngelo Williams, wherein Carlos Rogers
screwed up twice. First, he ran straight into the back of another defender, and
second, he whiffed on a tackle attempt as Williams ran past. If Williams
doesn’t score there, the popular script for this game may be different. As it
stands, the Panthers are one-point underdogs, which is an unpopular opinion
among the Panthers and their fans, who feel as though they are being,
“disrespected.” The teams come in with identical 12-4 records, and the 49ers
winners of seven straight and the Panthers winners of 11 of their last 12.
Neither one of these teams stumbled into the playoffs by any means. They
feature two of the young, dynamic quarterbacks in the league and two of the top
defenses.
How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Michael Crabtree
During the regular season 49ers-Panthers game, Michael Crabtree was one of three 49ers who didn’t play (if you count the severely-shortened day for Vernon Davis due to a concussion). The other one is Aldon Smith. While Smith’s absence was certainly felt, no return has been as incredibly beneficial to the 49ers’ overall success as that of Michael Crabtree. In the six games since his return, he has gone over 100 yards twice, and most importantly, the 49ers are undefeated. Merely having Crabtree opens up the rest of the offense. In the 12 games the 49ers played without Crabtree this year, they averaged 24.91 points per game on 308.55 yards of offense (173.45 passing, 135.09 rushing) and 1.45 turnovers a game. In the six games since Crabtree’s return, they are averaging nearly an extra point per game, over 50 additional yards per game (40 of those in the air) and the Niners are down nearly an entire turnover a game. Clearly, the offense that struggled mightily without Crabtree is clicking and flourishing since his return. His contribution will be key if the Niners want to make it to the NFCCG.
1) Important Player: Michael Crabtree
During the regular season 49ers-Panthers game, Michael Crabtree was one of three 49ers who didn’t play (if you count the severely-shortened day for Vernon Davis due to a concussion). The other one is Aldon Smith. While Smith’s absence was certainly felt, no return has been as incredibly beneficial to the 49ers’ overall success as that of Michael Crabtree. In the six games since his return, he has gone over 100 yards twice, and most importantly, the 49ers are undefeated. Merely having Crabtree opens up the rest of the offense. In the 12 games the 49ers played without Crabtree this year, they averaged 24.91 points per game on 308.55 yards of offense (173.45 passing, 135.09 rushing) and 1.45 turnovers a game. In the six games since Crabtree’s return, they are averaging nearly an extra point per game, over 50 additional yards per game (40 of those in the air) and the Niners are down nearly an entire turnover a game. Clearly, the offense that struggled mightily without Crabtree is clicking and flourishing since his return. His contribution will be key if the Niners want to make it to the NFCCG.
2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
Greg Hardy has already threatened to break Colin Kaepernick’s face if the 49ers’ Offensive Line isn’t up to snuff tomorrow. That’s a threat that likely isn’t going to sit well with the O-Linemen, who are very protective of Kaepernick. Hardy’s not exactly wrong, however. The Panthers notched six sacks in their first meeting with the 49ers, but Mike Iupati & Alex Boone were hobbled in that game. The Niners’ O-Line has been back together and playing at a high level for a few weeks now, and with the reigns off of Kaepernick to rush, they should hopefully be able to keep Kaepernick upright long enough to either make the throw or scramble. The one thing the 49ers’ offensive line was able to do well was run block, as Frank Gore went for 82 yards at over 5 yards a clip in their first meeting. Should the 49ers want to win tomorrow, the offensive line is going to have to keep Kaepernick off the turf in the backfield and ensure that Gore can get enough yards down field per attempt to keep the Panthers’ offense on the sidelines.
Greg Hardy has already threatened to break Colin Kaepernick’s face if the 49ers’ Offensive Line isn’t up to snuff tomorrow. That’s a threat that likely isn’t going to sit well with the O-Linemen, who are very protective of Kaepernick. Hardy’s not exactly wrong, however. The Panthers notched six sacks in their first meeting with the 49ers, but Mike Iupati & Alex Boone were hobbled in that game. The Niners’ O-Line has been back together and playing at a high level for a few weeks now, and with the reigns off of Kaepernick to rush, they should hopefully be able to keep Kaepernick upright long enough to either make the throw or scramble. The one thing the 49ers’ offensive line was able to do well was run block, as Frank Gore went for 82 yards at over 5 yards a clip in their first meeting. Should the 49ers want to win tomorrow, the offensive line is going to have to keep Kaepernick off the turf in the backfield and ensure that Gore can get enough yards down field per attempt to keep the Panthers’ offense on the sidelines.
3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Attempt
In their four losses this season, Colin Kaepernick has averaged under 6 yards per attempt, and, excepting the win against the Seahawks, he did not go under 7 yards per attempt in any win this year. Clearly, the 49ers go as their quarterback goes, and if the 49ers want to have a winning formula, they will need to ensure that Kaepernick is put in a position where he can get that 7+ yards per attempt mark that they desperately need for him to win. The running game will be there, despite it being more difficult against one of the league’s best front sevens, who are allowing only 86.9 yards per game, second in the NFL. The Niners have shown that they can win when the running game isn’t up to snuff (see: Week 17 against the league-best-rushing-D Arizona Cardinals), but they’ve proven this year that if they have a downright awful passing game, the rest of the team is not strong enough to overcome it.
In their four losses this season, Colin Kaepernick has averaged under 6 yards per attempt, and, excepting the win against the Seahawks, he did not go under 7 yards per attempt in any win this year. Clearly, the 49ers go as their quarterback goes, and if the 49ers want to have a winning formula, they will need to ensure that Kaepernick is put in a position where he can get that 7+ yards per attempt mark that they desperately need for him to win. The running game will be there, despite it being more difficult against one of the league’s best front sevens, who are allowing only 86.9 yards per game, second in the NFL. The Niners have shown that they can win when the running game isn’t up to snuff (see: Week 17 against the league-best-rushing-D Arizona Cardinals), but they’ve proven this year that if they have a downright awful passing game, the rest of the team is not strong enough to overcome it.
How the Panthers Win:
1) Important Player: Greg Olsen
With Steve Smith severely hobbled, and a receiving corps consisting of Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, Jr., it is obvious that Cam’s second option throughout most of the year will become his most important target against the 49ers. The 49ers have struggled in the short-intermediate passing game. They usually play man on the edges and zone in the middle, allowing for short, quick passes to be complete. Luckily for them, the Niners do this because they boast one of the best tackling defenses in the league. If the Panthers want success, they may have to dink & dunk to their tight end, as, even with Carlos Rogers likely not playing, the rest of the passing game is pretty much non-existent. The only thing to worry about is a deep ball over the top to speedster Ted Ginn. Luckily, Ginn was a 49er from 2010 until 2012, meaning that the defense has some serious experience in guarding Ginn. LaFell isn’t a huge threat, nor is Domenik Hixon. That leaves Olsen, alone, as Cam’s best option on a lot of plays if the Niners choose to roll coverage over to the side of the hobbled Smith. He was surprisingly effective this year, quietly tying for eighth most Tight End touchdowns (with former 49er Delanie Walker) and tenth in yards per game. He’s not a big, flashy name, but he is not to be ignored.
1) Important Player: Greg Olsen
With Steve Smith severely hobbled, and a receiving corps consisting of Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, Jr., it is obvious that Cam’s second option throughout most of the year will become his most important target against the 49ers. The 49ers have struggled in the short-intermediate passing game. They usually play man on the edges and zone in the middle, allowing for short, quick passes to be complete. Luckily for them, the Niners do this because they boast one of the best tackling defenses in the league. If the Panthers want success, they may have to dink & dunk to their tight end, as, even with Carlos Rogers likely not playing, the rest of the passing game is pretty much non-existent. The only thing to worry about is a deep ball over the top to speedster Ted Ginn. Luckily, Ginn was a 49er from 2010 until 2012, meaning that the defense has some serious experience in guarding Ginn. LaFell isn’t a huge threat, nor is Domenik Hixon. That leaves Olsen, alone, as Cam’s best option on a lot of plays if the Niners choose to roll coverage over to the side of the hobbled Smith. He was surprisingly effective this year, quietly tying for eighth most Tight End touchdowns (with former 49er Delanie Walker) and tenth in yards per game. He’s not a big, flashy name, but he is not to be ignored.
2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
When anyone talks about how great the Panthers defense is, they usually give the caveat that they’re talking about the front seven. If there is an area that is suspect on this defense, it is the defensive backs. Captain Munnerlyn was clearly their best defensive back, which means that whoever is up against Melvin White should be the target on the offense. Given that Luke Kuechly could be covering Davis, the key will be taking advantage of whichever of Crabtree or Boldin is being guarded by Melvin White, who, by Pro Football Focus standards, is their worst Cornerback in pass coverage. The Panthers will need a big day out of their Cornerbacks to stop the suddenly dynamic 49ers’ Wide Receiver corps.
When anyone talks about how great the Panthers defense is, they usually give the caveat that they’re talking about the front seven. If there is an area that is suspect on this defense, it is the defensive backs. Captain Munnerlyn was clearly their best defensive back, which means that whoever is up against Melvin White should be the target on the offense. Given that Luke Kuechly could be covering Davis, the key will be taking advantage of whichever of Crabtree or Boldin is being guarded by Melvin White, who, by Pro Football Focus standards, is their worst Cornerback in pass coverage. The Panthers will need a big day out of their Cornerbacks to stop the suddenly dynamic 49ers’ Wide Receiver corps.
3) Important Statistic: Rushing Yards
The Panthers employ a three-headed (four, if you count Cam) monster at the running back position. Between Williams, Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, they offer different looks to the opposing offense. In order for the Panthers to move on to Seattle, they’ll need to make the most of those looks. As outlined above, the Panthers receiving corps will be left wanting for talent if Smith is completely hobbled. That means the game will fall on the shoulders of the running backs. Much like in San Francisco in Week Ten, this doesn’t necessarily mean disaster for the Panthers. Given that in the first matchup, it came down to the Panthers successfully executing their running game to score the game’s only touchdown, you shouldn’t be too surprised if the running game is central to any success they may have tomorrow against the 49ers.
The Panthers employ a three-headed (four, if you count Cam) monster at the running back position. Between Williams, Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, they offer different looks to the opposing offense. In order for the Panthers to move on to Seattle, they’ll need to make the most of those looks. As outlined above, the Panthers receiving corps will be left wanting for talent if Smith is completely hobbled. That means the game will fall on the shoulders of the running backs. Much like in San Francisco in Week Ten, this doesn’t necessarily mean disaster for the Panthers. Given that in the first matchup, it came down to the Panthers successfully executing their running game to score the game’s only touchdown, you shouldn’t be too surprised if the running game is central to any success they may have tomorrow against the 49ers.
Choosing between the Panthers
and the 49ers for me has been an argument between head, heart and gut. Heart,
obviously, favors the Niners, so I had to set that one aside to try to be
objective. Head tells me that the Panthers shut down everything on defense and
do just enough on offense to make sure their team comes out ahead (2011 49ers,
anyone?). Gut, however, tells me that I am going to favor the team that’s been
on a roll. A team that’s clicking and coming together at just the right time. A
49ers’ squad that has one in spectacular fashion three games in a row. With all
their weapons in place and clicking at the right time, I am going to take a
Niners team on the road in a defensive slugfest. They’re playing better football
right now than the Panthers and this core squad is playing in their seventh
playoff game under Coach Harbaugh, while Riverboat Ron & company will be
playing the Panthers’ first playoff game since they lost to the Cardinals in
2008 (after losing to the Seahawks in 2005—they must hate facing the NFC West
in the playoffs). I’ll go with the experienced squad. I’ll go Niners in a
knock-down, drag-out brawl.
