Fresh off the heels of their first road playoff victory in Philadelphia,
the Saints are the first team to face the toughest go in the postseason,
traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks & The 12th Man in
Century Link Field. The Saints weren’t up to the task earlier in the year, so
it’s hard to imagine them being up to the task in the post-season. It’s the
first Seahawks home game since the infamous Beast Mode Run, wherein Marshawn
Lynch shed a tackle from, and I’m not sure about this, all 53 men on the roster
as well as Sean Peyton en route to a touchdown and a complete embarrassment of
the reigning Super Bowl Champion. The Saints already lost once in Seattle this
year, and Drew Brees & company are hoping for a different result. Both
teams are two of the top defenses in the NFL, so this should be a good one to
watch. The victor takes on the winner of the 49ers-Panthers game next week for
the chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If the Seahawks win, they’ll
host the game at “The Clink.” If the Saints win, they’ll take their road show
to either Charlotte or San Francisco.
How the Saints Win:
1) Important Player: Mark Ingram
Last week, arguably the most important factor to the Saints’ victory over the Eagles was Ingram’s ability to rush the ball. He totaled 18 carries for 97 yards and a score, going for just under 5.4 yards per carry. Granted, the Seahawks’ defense and the Eagles’ defense aren’t exactly comparable, but in actuality, they are both extremely good against the run (3.8 YPC for Eagles to 3.9 YPC for the Seahawks). Given the “Legion of Boom’s” propensity for shutting down receivers, and the heavy winds expected in Seattle today, the Saints are going to have to do it with the run game to get it done today. With Mark Ingram becoming the lead back, his ability to run the ball will be vital today. In their first matchup, Ingram was not able to do much with his carries; going 8 for 22 yards before the Saints were forced to abandon the run in an attempt to make up their massive deficit. If the Saints can establish Ingram early & often, and maybe even take the lead, they can keep the Seahawks’ offense off the field and maybe pull out a win.
1) Important Player: Mark Ingram
Last week, arguably the most important factor to the Saints’ victory over the Eagles was Ingram’s ability to rush the ball. He totaled 18 carries for 97 yards and a score, going for just under 5.4 yards per carry. Granted, the Seahawks’ defense and the Eagles’ defense aren’t exactly comparable, but in actuality, they are both extremely good against the run (3.8 YPC for Eagles to 3.9 YPC for the Seahawks). Given the “Legion of Boom’s” propensity for shutting down receivers, and the heavy winds expected in Seattle today, the Saints are going to have to do it with the run game to get it done today. With Mark Ingram becoming the lead back, his ability to run the ball will be vital today. In their first matchup, Ingram was not able to do much with his carries; going 8 for 22 yards before the Saints were forced to abandon the run in an attempt to make up their massive deficit. If the Saints can establish Ingram early & often, and maybe even take the lead, they can keep the Seahawks’ offense off the field and maybe pull out a win.
2) Important Position Group: Defensive Line
Russell Wilson is a magician. He gets out of crazy tight jams behind the line of scrimmage that would make Harry Houdini blush. Add onto that Marshawn Lynch’s 4.2 yards per carry ranked second among all running backs with 300 or more rushes this year, behind only LeSean McCoy’s 5.1 YPC. Shutting down Wilson’s pocket and stopping Beast Mode will be key to the Saints’ success today. Both are a massive test, but the Saints showed last week that they can do both. According to profootballfocus.com, Foles had a 74.5% completion with less than 2.5 seconds to throw and 55.9% completion with more than 2.5 seconds in the regular season. The Saints were able to slash the first figure to 56.3% last week, but breakdowns in coverage led to an 82.4% completion percentage when he had more than 2.5 seconds. Russell Wilson is the king of quarterback improv, and the Saints will need to keep him contained and making quick decisions if they want to win. The key to this is the Defensive Line getting pressure on Wilson.
Russell Wilson is a magician. He gets out of crazy tight jams behind the line of scrimmage that would make Harry Houdini blush. Add onto that Marshawn Lynch’s 4.2 yards per carry ranked second among all running backs with 300 or more rushes this year, behind only LeSean McCoy’s 5.1 YPC. Shutting down Wilson’s pocket and stopping Beast Mode will be key to the Saints’ success today. Both are a massive test, but the Saints showed last week that they can do both. According to profootballfocus.com, Foles had a 74.5% completion with less than 2.5 seconds to throw and 55.9% completion with more than 2.5 seconds in the regular season. The Saints were able to slash the first figure to 56.3% last week, but breakdowns in coverage led to an 82.4% completion percentage when he had more than 2.5 seconds. Russell Wilson is the king of quarterback improv, and the Saints will need to keep him contained and making quick decisions if they want to win. The key to this is the Defensive Line getting pressure on Wilson.
The Defensive Line will also be key in stopping Lynch. In
their first meeting, the Saints were able to key in on Lynch, stopping him to
the tune of 16 rushes for 45 yards, or 2.8 YPC. Subtract a 14 yard run, and it’s
15 for 31; a pedestrian day by anybody’s standards. If they can contain Wilson’s
improv and shut down Beat Mode, the Saints stand a chance.
3) Important Statistic: Drew Brees’ Time in the Pocket
Brees led the NFL in dropbacks lasting more than 2.5 seconds; allowing the play to develop, waiting for breakdowns in coverage and finding the right man are all hallmarks of Brees’ game. This means the O-Line will need to hold up against the tough Seattle pass rush. Surprisingly, in their first meeting, Brees was only sacked once. Given that Brees was put in the turf 37 times this season that was a good day for the Saints O-Line. Not so much, though, when you factor in 3 hits and 9 hurries for Brees. Like previously said, he needs a lot of time in the pocket for the play to develop to get his team a win. If he’s rushed, he’s less effective. The Saints Offensive Line, just like their Defensive Line, will be key to the Saints potentially moving forward to face the Niners or Panthers.
Brees led the NFL in dropbacks lasting more than 2.5 seconds; allowing the play to develop, waiting for breakdowns in coverage and finding the right man are all hallmarks of Brees’ game. This means the O-Line will need to hold up against the tough Seattle pass rush. Surprisingly, in their first meeting, Brees was only sacked once. Given that Brees was put in the turf 37 times this season that was a good day for the Saints O-Line. Not so much, though, when you factor in 3 hits and 9 hurries for Brees. Like previously said, he needs a lot of time in the pocket for the play to develop to get his team a win. If he’s rushed, he’s less effective. The Saints Offensive Line, just like their Defensive Line, will be key to the Saints potentially moving forward to face the Niners or Panthers.
How the Seahawks Win:
1) Important Player: Percy Harvin
I know it’s sort of strange to make Harvin, a player who has played one game with 1 catch for 17 yards, the key player to the Seahawks’ victory. A player that was an extreme non-factor in the regular season (12-3 without him, 1-0 with him). However, Harvin is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers and the Seahawks would be crazy to not force-feed him targets. There is exactly one game of tape on Harvin in this system (with limited snaps) and the Saints have not been able to gameplan for him. Like Kaepernick and the read option in last year’s playoffs, Harvin could be the unknown wrinkle that leads the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The reason Harvin is key to the Seahawks success now is that they now have their shiny new toy to play with. If it breaks immediately, they can go back to Tate or Baldwin, but if it’s ineffective, continuing to play with their shiny new toy may be their end.
1) Important Player: Percy Harvin
I know it’s sort of strange to make Harvin, a player who has played one game with 1 catch for 17 yards, the key player to the Seahawks’ victory. A player that was an extreme non-factor in the regular season (12-3 without him, 1-0 with him). However, Harvin is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers and the Seahawks would be crazy to not force-feed him targets. There is exactly one game of tape on Harvin in this system (with limited snaps) and the Saints have not been able to gameplan for him. Like Kaepernick and the read option in last year’s playoffs, Harvin could be the unknown wrinkle that leads the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The reason Harvin is key to the Seahawks success now is that they now have their shiny new toy to play with. If it breaks immediately, they can go back to Tate or Baldwin, but if it’s ineffective, continuing to play with their shiny new toy may be their end.
2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
The Saints live and die by the pass, and your team would, too, if they had Drew Brees at quarterback. The Seahawks provide the perfect foil to the Saints’ passing attack, allowing the league-lowest 5.8 yards per attempt with a league-high 28 interceptions. The “Legion of Boom” seems custom-built to take out the second offense in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. It will be a battle of titans as Brees tries to fit it past the Seahawks’ defensive backs. The biggest obstacle for the DBs to overcome is the handling of Jimmy Graham. Graham was banged up earlier in the year at their meeting and was absolutely shut down by KJ Wright. Wright held Graham to 3 catches for 42 yards and a score (the score was a 2 yard chip shot, however.
The Saints live and die by the pass, and your team would, too, if they had Drew Brees at quarterback. The Seahawks provide the perfect foil to the Saints’ passing attack, allowing the league-lowest 5.8 yards per attempt with a league-high 28 interceptions. The “Legion of Boom” seems custom-built to take out the second offense in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. It will be a battle of titans as Brees tries to fit it past the Seahawks’ defensive backs. The biggest obstacle for the DBs to overcome is the handling of Jimmy Graham. Graham was banged up earlier in the year at their meeting and was absolutely shut down by KJ Wright. Wright held Graham to 3 catches for 42 yards and a score (the score was a 2 yard chip shot, however.
The only problem, for the Seahawks, is that Wright is
currently sidelined with a broken bone in his foot. His ability to shut down Graham
will be sorely missed, as the Saints’ Tight End creates a unique matchup
nightmare; this is a nightmare the Seahawks secondary is prepared to defend,
but will be a key focus to move the Seahawks on to the NFC Championship Game.
3) Important Statistic: Decibel Level
The Seahawks broke the outdoor stadium noise world record twice this year, and have one of the most consistently loud stadiums in the NFL. Some of this is through the design; expertly built to reflect noise back onto the field, and part of this is the Seahawks fan base. They make road teams trying to hear each other at the line of scrimmage nearly impossible (this is key for the offense). This leads to wasted timeouts, delay of game penalties and poor communication overall. The Saints will try to combat this with earplugs (like last time) and by practicing all week with speakers blaring at practice. By some reports, they blew out two of these speakers trying to recreate the Clink’s highly audible fans.
The Seahawks broke the outdoor stadium noise world record twice this year, and have one of the most consistently loud stadiums in the NFL. Some of this is through the design; expertly built to reflect noise back onto the field, and part of this is the Seahawks fan base. They make road teams trying to hear each other at the line of scrimmage nearly impossible (this is key for the offense). This leads to wasted timeouts, delay of game penalties and poor communication overall. The Saints will try to combat this with earplugs (like last time) and by practicing all week with speakers blaring at practice. By some reports, they blew out two of these speakers trying to recreate the Clink’s highly audible fans.
The Saints are hoping to win their second road playoff game
of all-time, and doing so at the site of a previous playoff embarrassment. The Seahawks are hoping to continue their
roll of success and avoiding being one-and-done in the playoffs. The Seahawks
absolutely dominated the league for most of the year, but stumbled into the
playoffs, splitting their last four games against the Niners, Giants, Cardinals
and Rams. They lost to the two playoff-caliber teams of the four, but ended the
season on a high-note, demolishing the Rams 27-9. Now that the road win monkey
is off their back, and with one game of Clink noise already under their belt,
the Saints are hoping a steady diet of Mark Ingram and putting Russell Wilson
on his back will lead them to victory. Ultimately, you’d be stupid to not go
with the better team at home in one of the biggest home-field advantages in
sports. It pains me to say this, especially since it will be denying the 49ers
a potential last game in Candlestick, but I’ll take the Seattle Seahawks in
this one.
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