Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The NFC

In the only game this weekend that isn’t a rematch of a 2013 game, the Saints and Eagles—two of the NFL’s most potent offenses—face off. If the Saints were at home, they would be an overwhelming favorite; they aren’t at home, and they went a pedestrian 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. In fact, in non-dome games this year, they went only 2-4, barely eking out a victory in Tampa Bay & handling business in Chicago. They’re clearly a dome team (smart, given they play at least 9 games a year in a dome), but the compounding problem is that they’ll be playing in temperatures as low as 23 degrees, over 50 degrees colder than the friendly confines of the Superdome.

How the Saints Win
1) Important Player: Jimmy Graham
Outside of Graham, the Saints passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Marques Colston had a very respectable but un-Marques-Colston-like season. Darren Sproles continued to be a spark plug, ending the season with 71 receptions for 604 yards. The only problem is that Sproles would disappear for weeks at a time. Luckily, if the Saints have the Brees to Graham connection clicking, they should be just fine. A quick rundown of how important Jimmy Graham is to the Saints’ offense: he accounts for 19.28% of their receptions (86 of 446), 23.54% of their passing yards (1215 of 5162) and 41.03% of their passing touchdowns (16 of 39). If the Saints want a chance of winning in Philadelphia tonight, they’re going to have to go to Graham early and often.

2) Important Position Group: (Backup) Defensive Backs
The Saints lost two of their starting secondary players in the last seven games. They lost Jabari Greer to a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers in Week 10 and outstanding rookie Free Safety Kenny Vaccaro to a broken ankle in their game at Carolina.  Given the high pace and potency of the Philadelphia offense, the backup DBs who have taken their place will come in as extremely important members of the defensive unit. Their ability to step up to the plate on a handful of key plays may be the difference between an Eagles win or a Saints win.

3) Important Stastic: Yards Per Carry (Defense)
LeSean McCoy, if he knows his statistics, must be extremely excited for his matchup with the Saints’ running defense. They’re tied for fourth worst in the NFL (with the Chargers and Packers) at 4.6 YPC. This, combined with McCoy’s otherworldly rushing ability, means that Chip Kelly would be smart to dial up a ton of plays on the ground. If the Saints want to be able to move on to the next round, they’re going to have to figure out a way to cinch up that sagging run defense.

How the Eagles Win
1) Important Player*: Trent Cole
*Non LeSean McCoy Division

LeSean McCoy was the obvious answer here, but I outlined the Saints running game woes above & I didn’t want to just rehash those here. Outside of McCoy, Trent Cole may be the player most important to the Eagles’ success on Saturday. Cole is one of the Eagles’ sack leaders, but he spent his time since 2005 as a Defensive End, one of the big uglies with his hand in the grass. This season, Chip Kelly asked him to transition to Outside Linebacker. This position is still a pass-rush position, but with different tasks are expected of an OLB. Understandably, he’s struggled in pass coverage—that’s expected from a DE transitioning to an OLB, but his run defense and pass rush have been the best, combined, on the team, according to profootballfocus.com. Getting to Drew Brees fast and often will be the key to the Eagles’ defensive scheme if they stand a chance of winning Saturday.

2) Important Position Group: Tight Ends
DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant have been the main beneficiaries of the Nick Foles Experience, but Zach Ertz and Brent Celek will be key to the passing attack in this game. Ertz has extremely sure hands and Celek isn’t far behind him (5.26 and 8.57 catch rate—comparable to Julius Thomas & Vernon Davis, respectively). With the Saints worrying about Jackson & Cooper deep and McCoy rushing, the intermediate game should be available to the Eagles. This is where the Tight Ends shine. If the Eagles want to move on, they’ll need to recognize and exploit this matchup.

3) Important Statistic: Temperature
As outlined above, the Saints have been miserable outside of temperature-controlled environments, and Lincoln Financial Field tonight will be downright cold. This little bit of data is completely out of the Eagles’ hands, but this may be the most important statistic in the outcome of the game. The Saints played 10 games in domes this year (8 home games plus two road games at St. Louis & Atlanta) and 6 games outside. In the dome games, the average final score was 30.5 – 16.5; Saints. Inside, the Saints are averaging a two-touchdown victory. On the road, the final score was 18.17 – 23.16; opposition. Outside, the Saints are allowing an extra touchdown per game and muster almost half as many points. They’re also averaging 95 yards per game fewer outdoors. They’re a completely different offense outdoors. The defense also struggles outdoors, allowing 63 additional yards outside.  Granted, a lot of this can be attributed to road versus home, but the Saints lost only one game in a dome this year (including two road games) and went 2-4 outside of the dome. That’s more extreme than simple home/road splits.

This game should be a ton of fun to watch, with two high-flying offenses (second and fourth in yards per game, at just about 400 apiece) squaring off. The defenses will be hard pressed to keep up with the offenses that will be thrown out there this weekend. Ultimately, the Outdoor Saints will rear their ugly heads and won’t be coming away with the victory tonight.

Final Score: 38 – 31, Eagles.