I initially feared writing this piece. I feared that it
would be me arguing my heart versus my mind versus my gut. This marks the third
time the Niners and Seahawks, who many think are the two best teams in the NFC,
go head to head. The series is split this year, but it isn’t as simple as
calling it a “split.” Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were completely dismantled
the last time they went to Seattle. I started to really dive into all the
statistics, all the splits, all the opponent information and I’ve come up with
a few insights about the game that don’t show too much bias but also put an
interesting spin on the game that I haven’t seen put out anywhere else. I
pulled all bias from this and tried to look merely at the numbers. Just the
numbers (the blog can be temporarily named My Stupid Conclusions From Actual
Statistics).
Niners Are Better than
Seahawks in Rematches (Also, Down the Stretch):
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16. A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16. A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.
The Seahawks have not fared so well in rematches this year. The
first time through a team, they won in a blowout; 27.75 points to 10.25. In
their second time around, they still won the majority of their games (as a 13-3
team is likely to do), but their offense fell by 8.5 points per game and their
offense allowed 4.75 more points per game. This means that the Seahawks are
less potent the second time around. Why could this be? Well, 4 out of their
last 5 games have been rematches, including three out of four to close the
season against the NFC West. The Seahawks have been the champs of the division
all season long, taking the lead in week two and never looking back. It’s easy
to get up and get ready for the #1 team in your division. It could also be that
Russell Wilson has struggled mightily down the stretch (the passing game is
averaging 40 fewer yards per game since their bye). Marshawn Lynch has
admirably carried the load, but the sputtering offense has produced 3 fewer first downs a game since their bye, meaning Beast Mode is getting
fewer opportunities. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks defense has responded
by getting better, allowing fewer yards, first downs, and points.
The Seahawks’ Defense
Depends on Turnovers (and the 49ers Don’t Give it Up)
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game. Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game. Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.
Frank Gore Probably
Won’t Repeat One of the Worst Games of His Career
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.
No Percy Harvin
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch. One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch. One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.
And the reason why none of the above may matter…
Century Link Field
& the Home Field Advantage
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.
The perfect question was asked of me this week: “Can the
49ers’ win this weekend?” Can they? Absolutely, they can. Will they? That’s
another question. There are a ton of factors that will play into it. Much like
Carolina, I think experience and the hot hand will win out and the 49ers will
advance to 5-2 against Seattle in the Jim Harbaugh Era. If Russell Wilson stops
his current schneid, I’m probably betting against the 49ers, but given that he
pulled off barely 100 yards against a decimated Saints secondary, I wouldn’t
count on that.
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