Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The AFC

The Bengals and Chargers square off on Wildcard Weekend Sunday; a rematch of their Week 13 skirmish wherein the Chargers fell to the Bengals 17-10. The Chargers hope for a very different result in their second matchup this season. They weren’t able to beat the Bengals in sunny San Diego, and with a potential for snow today in Cincinnati, the weather won’t be any better for the Chargers. Ultimately, the Bengals should run away with this one, but given what happened in the games yesterday, you can’t rule out the Chargers despite all signs pointing to a Bengals victory.

How the Chargers Win
1) Important Player: Keenan Allen

The upstart rookie has been a revelation to the beleaguered Chargers offense. He only received run because everybody in front of him on the depth chart suffered serious injuries. The third round pick out of Cal did not disappoint one bit. He stepped right into the starting lineup and started wowing people immediately. He will be the focus of the Bengals' secondary, and Philip Rivers will need to look his way often if the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. In their first matchup he went for 8 receptions for 106 yards. Throw a score on top of that and the Chargers may have pulled off the upset. The Chargers realize that their best receiver, and maybe best offensive weapon, needs to get force fed targets in order to move on to the next round.

2) Important Position Group: Safeties
The Bengals offense is pretty much built around deep bombs to A.J. Green. Green is a next-level talent and shutting him down will be vital to the Chargers if they want to take on divisional foes the Denver Broncos next weekend. The Safeties will be crucial to this process, as the Chargers Cornerbacks aren’t exceptional enough to stop Green on their own. In their loss earlier this year, Green went for 5 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. Not a massive day, but the theme for the Bengals in that game is they seemed to do just enough to win. The Chargers safeties will be vital in making sure Green doesn’t break free. They’ll likely roll coverage his way, or even bracket him to ensure he doesn’t go long uncovered.

3) Important Stat: Bengals Receptions (Non-AJ Green Category):

AJ Green is going to get his on Sunday. In order for the Chargers to pull off the victory, they have to concede that fact. They need to ensure that players like Andrew Hawkins and Marvin Jones don't have massive games. Green can't beat the Chargers all by himself, and in order to upset the Bengals, the defense will need to make sure that the other receivers don't have a field day while they try to focus on Green. If the Chargers manage to keep the non-AJ Green receivers down, they stand a chance of winning in Cincinnati. Given that they’ll be likely rolling coverage towards AJ Green, that means that the Cornerbacks will need to have a big day shutting down Hawkins and Jones to give the Chargers a fighting chance.

How the Bengals Win
1) Important Player: Andy “Good Andy” Dalton
I say “Good Andy” because Dalton is notoriously schizophrenic on the field. He’ll throw for a ton of touchdowns one week and will be physically incapable of throwing the ball to a Bengal player the next week. Bad Andy actually showed up during their last meeting; The Red Rifle managed only 190 yards passing on 23 attempts for a pick and a score. But, it was enough to beat the Chargers back in Week 13. The Chargers are playing much better than they were back then, so in order for the Bengals to come out ahead, Good Andy will need to show up on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
In order for Good Andy to show up, the Bengals offensive line will need to stand up to the Chargers pass rush. This will give Dalton time to bomb it out to AJ Green or Marvin Jones. In their last matchup, the highest rated players on the Bengals were three of their offensive lineman (according to profootballfocus.com). They’ll need to again make sure Dalton stays upright so that he can pick apart the Chargers’ secondary.

3) Important Stat: Points Scored
I’m not quite sure what it is, maybe Mom’s home cooking? The Bengals have been absolutely rolling at home, scoring a low of 34 points in their last four home games; this includes wins over the Colts, Browns, Jets, Vikings and Ravens. Their defense is superb, but the Bengals will live and die by their offensive production today, and their offensive production has been good near the friendly Ohio River. I know that “score a ton of points” isn’t exactly insightful, but the Bengals have been doing it on a completely different level within Ohio (Their 6-17 loss to the Browns not withstanding) and they’ll need to continue that roll to defeat the Chargers for the right to move on and face the Patriots.

The Chargers basically stole a win from the Chiefs last week, who were resting 20 of 22 starters in preparation for their matchup against the Colts yesterday. That didn’t work out so well for the Colts, as they collapsed spectacularly, allowing for the Colts to mount an all-time comeback win. I think that the Bengals will pull this one out on the back of “Good Andy” bombing it out to AJ Green, but I am beyond guessing scores. I didn’t exactly get that crazy Colts-Chiefs game even close. I expected defense, I got a shootout. I’ll just make my pick: Bengals. The Chargers' last loss was against Cincinnati, and they'll replicate the effort.