NFL Divisional Round, Saturday - The AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Colts and the Patriots square off today for what feels like an annual playoff tradition. The only problem is that this has traditionally been a matchup between the Peyton Manning-led Colts and the Tom Brady-led Patriots. Manning has moved on to Denver, and his replacement, Andrew Luck, is hoping that he will have better luck against Brady than Manning did. In their 13 Colts vs. Patriots matchups, Brady holds the edge, 9-4 (including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs). The Colts vs. the Patriots has become one of the marquee matchups in the AFC on the heels of the Manning-Brady showdown. Given the anticipated conditions and the current lineups of the two squads, it appears as though this won’t be the QB-off we’ve gotten used to when they square off. A terrible forecast and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected (depending on your source). If there is going to be a lot of scoring here, it isn’t going to be through the air.

How the Colts Win:
1) Important Player: Andrew Luck
It’s hard to believe when you look at him and the way he conducts himself on the field, but Andrew Luck is at the tail-end of his second year in the NFL. He has a short memory that is key for quarterbacks to be successful. In this game, he’ll need to play near-perfect after nearly losing the game last week. I contend that the quarterback lived up to his name last week, including a fumble that bounced off a defender into his hands for a score. He’ll need some of that juju as he takes on a weakened Patriots defense that will be, suddenly, without LB Brandon Spikes. Luck is not only a great physical specimen, he is a very smart quarterback. The Patriots will have a different look with different players out there. The Colts will need him to use his brain to perfection to pull out a win in Foxborough.

2) Important Position Group: Non-T.Y. Hilton Receivers
The book on Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes is that he likes to take away what you do best. After last week’s game in Indianapolis, that looks to be going towards T.Y. Hilton. LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener will need to come up huge in order for the Colts to come away with the victory in this one. Luckily, Luck is adept at finding the open receivers—something he’s been forced to learn quickly with his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, going out in the middle of the season. He responded by targeting mostly Hilton, but has gotten unsung players Whalen and Rogers in the mix, making sure he can beat opposing defenses when they shut down Hilton.

3) Important Statistic: Sacks
More specifically, Robert Mathis. The Colts’ ability to get their best pass rusher into the backfield to disrupt opposing offenses is the basis of their defense. They’ll need Mathis to have a good game and the rest of the defense to hold to prevent Brady from zipping the ball out when Mathis gets close. This will be a question of getting Brady onto his back early and often in order for him to prevent taking advantage of the banged up Colts secondary.  

How the Patriots Win:
1) Important Player: Tom Brady (duh)
Throughout the years, Tom Brady has played with a  varied cast of receivers. He’s had superstars in Randy Moss and he’s had complete schlubs like Aaron Dobson. The one thing that has stayed true has been Tom Brady’s ability to control the offense and produce. No matter who you put around him, Brady produces year in and year out. As long as Brady plays, he is the most important player for the Patriots’ success, bar none.

2) Important Position Group: Running Backs
The weather is going to be atrocious today, and that means that whichever team wins the ground game will likely win the actual game. The running back stable of Ridley, Blout & Vereen is one of the best around, and is definitely better than Donald Brown & Trent Richardson. Brady may be the most important player for the Patriots, but his decision-making to defer to the running backs may mean the difference between a Colts win and a Patriots win. If the weather was better, it wouldn’t be as important for the Patriots to have a successful running game. However, the weather will be terrible, so the running backs will need to be stupendous.

3) Important Statistic: Defensive Yards Per Carry
As I already outlined with the above point, the weather is going to be horrendous. Both teams will need to take to the ground for success in this one. The defensive line and linebacking corps of the Patriots has been decimated, including the recent loss of Brandon Spikes. If you’re the Colts, and you look at the fact that you have to beat the Patriots on the ground, you’re somewhat okay with that. The middle is absolutely decimated, and, while the Brown-Richardson combo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, they’ll be key this game. If the Patriots can hold the line and contain the running backs for the Colts, they’ll be punching their card to the AFC Championship Game.

This has been an up-and-down season for the Colts, who have beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos and Chiefs. They’re truly Giant Killers, but they also had down games—losing to the Rams and the Dolphins along the way. Andrew Luck and the rest of the team have made a great run of it this year. However, who am I to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? It’ll be uglier than ugly, but the Patriots have been built around their running game for a few weeks now. With an impressive stable of backs up against Donald Brown and Trent Richardson… Give me the Patriots.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The AFC

The craziness of Wild Card Weekend in the NFL kicks off Saturday with the Chiefs at the Colts to move on in the AFC bracket and the Saints travel to Philadelphia for the rights to go to either Seattle or Carolina next weekend. All the teams involved are, obviously, very good, but none of them are going to run away with the games.  Here’s a quick breakdown of what the Chiefs and Colts need to do to win their game. With the Eagles and Saints being the night game, their preview will be available tomorrow before their game.

The Chiefs and Colts game is a rematch of their Week 16 matchup, in which the Colts sauntered into Arrowhead Stadium, held the Chiefs to 7 points and put up 23 themselves. With the vast majority of the Chiefs starters sitting in Week 17 (they were locked into the fifth seed), the Chiefs’ players have been sitting and waiting for this rematch for a full two weeks. The Colts reeled following the loss of Reggie Wayne, but seem to have righted the ship. After starting off 9-0, the colts stumbled into the playoffs, going 2-5 in their last 7 games after their bye.

How the Chiefs Win

1) Important Player: Jamaal Charles
Much like the rest of the 2013 season, the Chiefs will live and die on Saturday on the legs of Jamaal Charles. He was third in the league with 329 touches, and was in the same position in all-purpose yards (second if you ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s return yardage. The 132 all-purpose yards he averaged this year will be vital to the Chiefs if they want to win on Sunday. His league-leading 19 touchdowns prove his value in this offense. The Colts were middle-of-the-pack in pass coverage and run coverage, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. For the Chiefs to win on Saturday, Charles needs to take advantage of the neutral matchup.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Before the Bye, the Chiefs boasted one of the stingiest passing offenses in the league, allowing just about 208 yards per game. Since the bye, they’re allowing an extra #1 receiver’s worth of yards through the air, increasing that 208 to just about 298 yards per game. To win against the Colts, it will be vital that the Chiefs stop the pass and force them to rely on Donald Brown and Trent Richardson on the ground. Brown isn’t very impressive as a back, and Trent Richardson makes him look like Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs can adequately shut down the pass, they just may be able to grit this one out.

3) Important Statistic: Turnovers
This one is important for both sides of the ball. In their 11 wins this year, the Chiefs averaged a whole two fewer turnovers per game than their opposition. In their losses, they are averaging 0.6 turnovers more per game than their opposition. Limiting the turnovers and creating them on the defense will be key in the Chiefs taking this one down.

How the Colts Win
1) Important Player: T.Y. Hilton
Since Reggie Wayne went down, the Colts have leaned heavily on their young Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton. Other receivers, such as Da’Rick Rogers and (especially) Darius Heyward-Bey are not nearly as talented. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s Stanford connections Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener came on late at the end of the season, but Hilton will be vital if the Colts hope to win on Sunday. He’ll need to take advantage of the aforementioned struggling cornerbacks in order to help the Colts win on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Pass Rushers
Specifically, Robert Mathis. Alex Smith, with time, is a smart quarterback who has just enough physical talent to make the smart pass where it needs to be. Get him under pressure and he is just not the same quarterback. Smith’s game is predicated on making smart, short, accurate passes and not throwing interceptions. Not throwing interceptions usually is in the form of Smith holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack. This will make the Colts’ pass rushers vital to their success on Sunday (especially with rookie OT Eric Fisher officially OUT for Saturday’s game).

3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Carry
The Running Back position has been quite volatile for the Colts this year. They started off with Ahmad Bradshaw being backed up by Vick Ballard with Donald Brown as the third back. Bradshaw and Ballard were placed on season-ending IR and the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. The current situation is an amorphous timeshare with it being (relatively) unclear who is the lead back. Brown is outperforming Richardson this year, but Richardson is still getting carries out of sheer stubbornness.

My Pick: The Colts dismantled the Chiefs two years ago at Arrowhead. At the same time, Andy Reid is incredible after byes. It’ll be a very hard-fought game, but I think the Chiefs will gut it out.

Final Score: 26-24.