Monday, January 5, 2015

Stop. Just Stop.



In the Lions-Cowboys Wild Card Game this weekend there was a controversial call that has been the talk of the sports world in the last day or so. It can be seen above. Rookie LB Anthony Hitchens is covering veteran Tight End Brandon Pettigrew. The result of this play was a defensive pass interference call on Hitchens, which was then picked up. By the strictest letter of the law, it was pass interference. Hitchens never turned to make a play on the ball and it plunked him squarely in the back. That wasn’t the controversy. The controversy came in that the refs then decided to pick up the flag and decide that it wasn’t pass interference.

The football world exploded. People posted a months-old article about NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino getting off of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ party bus in August 2014. This was their proof that, “the fix was in.” Stop that. Just, stop. Stop. STOP. That play did not cost the Lions the game, and if you’re going to fix the game, why do it in such a stupidly blatant way? There’s one thing in life that can explain away most conspiracy theories, including this one. It’s a principal known as Hanlon’s Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

To understand why this quote is apt, one should turn to the methods used to pick the playoff umpiring crew for the NFL. Basically, they take the top performing officials at each position and cobble together a crew out of them. This works in baseball pretty well. If your job is to call balls and strikes, the second base umpire has almost no bearing on your ability to do so. In the NFL, the referees are responsible for holding 22 men accountable for their actions on the field. Much like the continuity of an offensive line strengthening the unit, the continuity of a referee crew strengthens their ability to make quick, and accurate calls. In this case, when they conferred, they determined that it was not a defensive pass interference penalty.
Was this call wrong? Probably. Was it devastating? Absolutely. Was it a vast conspiracy to make Ndamukong Suh cry? Absolutely not, but I wish it was true.

Did it cost the Lions the game?

Absolutely not.

The Detriot Lions orchestrated one of the most devastating and mind-boggling second-half collapses possible. The DPI no-call came at a point in time when the Lions were still winning the game. They were up 20-17 with just over 8 minutes left in the game when this happened. The no-call didn’t put seven points on the board for the Cowboys. It didn’t even put one point on the board for the Cowboys. The play that cost the Lions the game was the very next play. After the no-call on the defensive pass interference, the Lions sat at the Dallas 46-yard line, essentially midfield, with a fourth-and-one. If they move the ball three feet from their position, the game was theirs. What does Jim Caldwell do?

Wait, before you answer, please reference this information:






(yards per rush allowed during the 2014 regular season)










(the four plays prior to the DPI no-call)

Did you guess:
(a) Hard count to try to pull them offsides before punting
(b) Pass play
(c) Run play
If you know Jim Caldwell, you know he went with (a). He is conservative to an absolute fault, and this was a complete fault. His call in this situation epitomizes the issues I have with current coaching conventions. Too many NFL coaches play to not lose rather than to win. The Lions could have easily gotten one yard, and chose to not even try. They were running the ball well immediately prior to this play. Instead of going for the jugular and the win, they played to not lose. How did the Football Gods react?

Swiftly and spitefully.

Detroit punter Sam Martin completely and absolutely shanked the punt, and barely flipped the field on the Cowboys, giving the Lions a handful of yards of field position compared to if they had gone for it on fourth down and failed. The Cowboys marched down the field and scored.  Now, some might say that the no-call on the DPI put the Lions in this position. I can give them that. If DPI is called there, the Lions move much closer and likely score on the drive. The only problem is the Lions second half:




“Likely score on the drive” was not in the Lions game plan in the second half Sunday, as you can see here:

As you can see, they had as many turnovers in the second half (though they were gifted one back) as they had points. The Lions stunk in the second half Sunday.

The real reason why you can’t blame the no-call DPI? The Lions fumbled the ball twice in the last 3 minutes of the game. Twice! The first time, Demarcus Lawrence coughed it back up and the Lions recovered. Not content to let the game be competitive, they farted the ball away again just about a minute later. Demarcus Lawrence redeemed himself, recovering the fumble and punching their ticket to the NFC Divisional Round.

The defensive pass interference call was demoralizing, yes. It was curious, yes. It did not cost the Lions the game. The Lions had a complete inability to resemble an NFL offense in the second half. It is for that reason, and that reason alone, that the Lions have moved into off-season mode. For those of you still complaining about the DPI…


Please, stop.

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