Pablo is Not a Giant Anymore. That's Okay.

The Giants suffered their first, and biggest, loss of 2014 free agency today. Pablo Sandoval announced (via Instagram) that he had signed a deal with the Red Sox today. The details haven’t been made fully public yet, but what we know is that it’s (a) 5 years, and (b) around $100 million.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sad to see Pablo go. His wink in 2014 before his clutch hit vs. the Royals, his three HR game in 2012 (which helped his MVP bid), the ever-present panda hats in the stands—there are a lot of good memories associated with Pablo. He embodied the weird relationship between the Giants and their fans. Players came and went, fell in and out of roles, but Pablo, Bumgarner and Posey were the constants. There were players that were the faces of the franchise and were consistently so over the last five years. Now one of the faces is gone.

You know what? That’s okay. I am okay with this. MLB has an uncapped salary structure and it isn’t my money, so I would have loved to see the Giants open their pocketbooks to resign Sandoval. They didn’t though, and every Giants fan sort of let loose a sigh of relief. While Panda has had his big moments in the limelight, he has also had a ton of other problems. Namely: the ton of weight he has gained and lost, and gained and lost… and gained. His weight, and production, has fluctuated wildly in his time with San Francisco.

There’s no doubting Sandoval’s skill, but his discipline may have Boston regretting this signing in 2017. Sandoval seems to have a serious issue with focus, which anyone can see by the junk he’ll swing at in his average at bat. He relies on his otherworldly hand-eye coordination—which leads to him hitting junk at his ankles or neck, as well as his impressive Fat Man Defense ™. That’s fine when you’re in your twenties, but his skills could deteriorate rapidly.

The Red Sox signed up for the post-season magic of Pablo Sandoval, but discipline issues may have them experiencing buyer’s remorse in a few seasons.

Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 2

Pro Tip for Giants fans Wednesday

Maybe I’m cursed? I thought the Giants would be able to continue their moderate success of late as they went down to AT&T Park South in Petco (Giants fans routinely “take over” the park), but instead they were swept without a second thought by the Padres. The Dodgers continued their dominance, winning 3 of 4 in Chicago, averaging 9.25 runs per game over that series.

The Giants square off against the Boys in Blue to begin this week, and with the Dodgers’ number sitting at 3 (combined Dodgers wins and Giants losses), the Giants need to take 2 out of 3 for the Dodgers to not take the division against their traditional rivals.

Jake Peavy (3-0, 0.93 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Dan Haren (2-1, 3.00 ERA, 16 K last 3 starts)
On July 26, the Giants sat at 58-47 when they traded a couple of minor league arms for the former Padres ace. He’d been struggling compared to his prior stint in the NL West, and since coming back to the friendly confines of the Best Coast, he has amassed a 2.16 ERA, 1.050 WHIP & 6.9 K/9 over ten games with the Giants. He has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for the Giants’ pitching staff that has seen the demotion of Tim Lincecum, the death of Matt Cain and the implosion of Tim Hudson. He will pitch well in this game, and give the Giants a chance to win this one.

Unfortunately, the Giants face off against a guy who has been as good or better than Haren over the same stint. Since August 1st, Haren’s starts are punctuated by a 6 ER effort to start it, and a 5 ER effort his last time out (at Colorado, so toss that one out). In between those two starts, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in any given start and a 1.70 ERA, with a 34/7 K/BB ratio. The Giants are a free-swinging squad and with the high-K rate of Dan Haren, the Giants will struggle to get anything going. This combined with the Dodgers’ offense picking up tells me that this won’t be pretty.

LOSS. 2-4.

Madison Bumgarner (2-0, 2.37 ERA, 15 K last 3 starts) vs. Zack Greinke (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 14 K last 3 starts)
With a loss on Monday, this game will be for the Giants’ lives in the NL West race. Luckily, they have their ace on the mound for the game. Bumgarner is a Dodger murderer in his career. Against the Bums, he has held them to a 0.582 OPS, which is flat bad. He strikes the Dodgers out 24.8% of the time he faces a guy with a white LA on his helmet. As a Giants ace he should, and does, dominate their biggest rival.  He won’t disappoint on Tuesday, and will twirl a gem for what is likely his last start of the regular season (they’ll likely have nothing to play for this weekend).

Up against Bumgarner is Zack Greinke, who has been great in his own right this season. Greinke against the Giants this year has been his usual dominant self, and fewer 5 ER starts all season than Hudson has in September (more on that below). Greinke is also prone to crumbling in the big game, and can easily lose focus. With the Giants playing for more than the Dodgers, they will (hopefully) eke this one out.

WIN. 3-2.

Tim Hudson (0-3, 10.32 ERA, 5 K in last 3 starts vs. Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 2.57 ERA, 26 K last 3 starts)
LOSS. Tears will flow. The Giants’ fans lamentations and gnashing of teeth that follow this game will cause the heavens themselves to shudder. Tim Hudson is rocked for 35 ER in 0.1 IP, and the Giants are forced to play against Kershaw until they don’t strike out, resulting in the first 33 K, 11 inning game. Hunter Pence, frustratedly, throws his bat at the ball as it leaves Kershaw’s hand, resulting (somehow) in a double and the game is mercifully ended. Dodgers win this game and the division.

Okay maybe it won’t go down that way, but I can’t think of a more lopsided way for the Dodgers to win the division than the most frustrating pitcher over the last couple of weeks versus His Grace, Clayton of Houses NL and AL, First of His Name, King of the Mounds and the First Pitch, Lord of the Six Divisions, and Protector of the Strike Zone.

I know I originally said this was going to be a three-part series, but I thought the Giants would hold up their end of the bargain and not stink up the joint in San Diego. This will be the last of my Giants’ regular season series breakdowns for 2014 (barring an unlikely sweep). I’ll take a deep, close look at the Wild Card play-in game later this week, but for now, try to not cry when the Dodgers celebrate on Wednesday.

Looking at the Giants' Playoff Odds, Part 1

Drumroll, please...

With their win yesterday and a Dodgers loss to the Rockies, the Giants currently sit at 84-68, and 2 games behind the NL West-leading LA Dodgers with ten games to play. They’re also the clubhouse leader for one of the two wildcard slots in the NL, up 2.5 games on the Pirates, who are, in turn, 2.5 games up on the Brewers. This makes them 5 games up on missing the playoffs with 10 to play. As I write this, however, the Dodgers are currently losing to the Chicago Cubs. And then I had to go back in and put this sentence in because the Dodgers took the lead back. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to assume everything is as the game started, with the Giants 2 games back of the Dodgers.

As of right now, MLB.com’s Baseball Prospectus-powered playoff probability odds chart has the Giants at a 99% chance of making the playoffs and the Dodgers a 100% chance… Forget the playoffs, can the Giants recover from their June (and July) swoon and actually win the division? Let’s take a look, shall we?

First, the Giants have won 10 of 16 games so far in September, including taking two of three from the Tigers and sweeping the Diamondbacks. Major contributions from youngsters Joe Panik, Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy alongside the bolstering of the pitching corps with the addition of Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit to the rotation have brought the Giants back from the brink of collapse. Up on the docket is likely the most important ten games of the season for the Giants. It’s split, and setup pretty well, for the Giants to control their destiny. Their magic number sits at nine, so if the Giants win out, it will include three Dodgers losses, giving them the division with a couple of games to go.

This will be part one of a three-part series, each outlining the upcoming series and how it will change the Giants’ post-season outlook.

Next up is the Padres, so let’s take a look how this series is likely to shape up!

Game One
Tim Hudson (9-11; 3.41 ERA) vs. Odrisamer Dispaigne (3-7; 3.63 ERA)

Hudson is the second Timmy this year to have a sudden collapse (though Lincecum’s was years in the making), and was bounced hard after giving up 6 earned runs in ONE INNING against the Dodgers on Saturday. Luckily, the Padres aren’t the Dodgers. Hudson’s last three starts have been absolute disasters, but he was walking into buzz saws in all three. At Coors Field and at the Tigers are unenviable starts for anybody to have to make. Hudson has faced the Padres twice this year, once in AT&T and once at Petco Park. In his start at Petco, Huddy managed to hold the Pads to three hits and one run over six innings.

Despaigne started off strong, but like Hudson, he has gotten lit up lately. He has given up 19 earned runs in his last 6 starts for a cool 5.18 ERA. Four of these starts, however, were on the road. Petco Park is a notorious pitchers’ park, and Despaigne benefits greatly. In his 7 home starts, he has only given up only 12 runs; compare this to his 8 starts and 32 runs & things don’t look good for the Giants.

Both pitchers will go solidly late into the game, and the Giants will take advantage of a pedestrian bullpen (now that they have traded Huston Street). The Giants’ relief pitchers carry bloated ERAs over the last couple of weeks, but solely because of the 17-0 shellacking the Dodgers laid on the Giants. Overall, I like the Giants bullpen over the Padres 'pen. This one goes to the Giants.

Prediction: 4-2 win

Game Two
Yusmeiro Petit (3-3; 5.18 ERA as a starter) vs. Andrew Cashner (4-7; 2.20 ERA)

Petit replaced Lincecum in the rotation, and since then, he has feasted on positive matchups and been absolutely destroyed by better competition. It’s very telling that he is the current record holder for most consecutive perfect innings and still has a mid-threes ERA for the season. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed a combined 2 earned runs in his two good matchup starts (vs. Colorado & vs. Arizona) and has a combined 11 runs in his other 2 starts (at Colorado & vs. the Dodgers).  Luckily, the Padres are a positive matchup for opposing pitchers; they’ve managed only 82 runs over the last 30 days, just about half of the #1 team, the Angels (166 runs), good for third worst in the league.

There’s only one problem, the Giants are facing an incredible pitcher in Andrew Cashner. His season has been almost an afterthought as the hurler missed a couple months with injury. He hasn’t given up more than 4 runs all season, and in his 5 starts since his return, he’s given up only 7 earned runs. He’s a pitch-to-contact ace, a 21^st century ace, who uses his stuff to suppress hits and the strikeouts are an afterthought.

Petit will give a valiant effort and Cashner will roll. This one will likely get turned off in the 7^th inning after Sandoval rolls another weak grounder to second base.

Prediction: 3-1 loss

Game Three
Ryan Vogelsong (8-11; 3.98 ERA) vs. Ian Kennedy (11-13; 3.80 ERA)

If you want the platonic ideal of a couple of middle-to-end of rotation starters, you’d end up somewhere between Ryan Vogelsong & Ian Kennedy, depending if you want more middle of the rotation (Kennedy) or 4^th or 5^th starter (Vogelsong). This game was an interesting one for me to try to figure out, but let’s give it a shot. Vogelsong, like Petit, seems to be a boom or bust player for the Giants. He’s given up 4, 0, 8, 2 and 3 runs in his last 5 starts. Before that, he was smooth sailing, allowing 6 runs in his prior 4 starts.

Kennedy is much more consistent, giving up 3, 4 or 5 runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. His strikeouts have still been there, but he has been giving up a good amount of runs to go with those strikeouts. While most of these starts have been on the road, he’s been seemingly immune to the park suppressing tendencies of Petco Park.

The Giants will win this one in the highest-scoring game of the series. The runs will total more than the rest of the series combined.

Prediction: 7-4 win.

Hopefully this has been a good read for you all! After this series, if things go the way I believe, the Giants will be closer to the NL West crown with 7 games to go (provided the Dodgers don't just keep winning...). I will be back after the Padres series to look at the real series for all the marbles: Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday at the Dodgers. If one team sweeps that series, it’s pretty much their division. This is the home stretch. This is why we watch baseball!

Go Giants!

Did TMZ Bail Out the NFL?

Why did it take TMZ for the NFL to do the right thing?

This morning, TMZ released shocking, brutal footage of former NFL RB Ray Rice viciously and repeatedly hitting his then fiancée Janay Palmer. We had previously seen the result of the altercation, as video of Rice dragging an unconscious Palmer was released earlier this year. In July, Roger Goodell and the league office handed down a paltry 2-game suspension shortly after banning Josh Gordon for a year for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy by the thinnest of margins.

By the thinnest of margins, I mean that if Gordon’s two urine samples been tested in the opposite order, he wouldn’t have been suspended. Gordon was voluntarily placed in stage three of the NFL substance abuse program, which led to the collectively-bargained sixteen game ban.

Obviously, outrage reigned. How can Gordon be banned for eight times as long as Ray Rice for two drastically different offenses, Rice’s obviously much, much worse? Well, it was collectively bargained, and agreed-to by the league and the players. The outrage in contrasting these two suspensions by the public was justifiable. Marijuana is legal in two states, and decriminalized in many others. In no state is domestic abuse legal. Clearly, Roger Goodell had miscalculated.

Time passed, and the outrage surrounding the two games descended into impotent mumblings and grumblings. Everybody knew Goodell was in the wrong, and clearly Goodell agreed. A couple of weeks ago, he admitted he was wrong and reformed the personal conduct policy (which the commissioner has the power to control) to be six games for the first domestic abuse incident and a lifetime ban (with an ability to apply for reinstatement) after the second offense. People applauded the commissioner for his admission of being wrong and the reformation of the policy.

The next day, he announced nine games for Aldon Smith (for a series of incidents). Still, Ray Rice sat at a two game ban and loss of a paycheck. Chump change for such a disgusting incident.  What could Goodell do? His hands were tied, he couldn’t go back and extend a suspension off of public outrage.

A few days after the new domestic abuse policy, 49ers D-Lineman Ray McDonald was arrested for allegations of felony domestic abuse. Six games, and possibly more, were (and still are) on the table for McDonald. This put the new policy in an awkward place. Jim Harbaugh preached “due process,” and immediately ripped a hole in the letter of the law. What happens when it’s a he-said/she-said issue, like the McDonald case seems to be? Goodell couldn’t suspend McDonald for something when he hadn't been formally determined in a court of law to be guilty. Does Goodell wait? Does he rule six games for just being in that situation? There was precedent for that; Ben Roethlisberger was accused of sexual assault (more than once) and though never charged, he was given a suspension for violating the personal conduct policy for even being in that situation.

Goodell’s firm stance, which had been thoroughly applauded, was immediately questioned and put to the test. As of writing this, there is still no result from the McDonald incident, and it appears, per Goodell, there won’t be pending the legal proceedings. The commissioner’s firm stance suddenly didn’t appear so strong.

Then this morning, TMZ released the footage of Rice. Less than 12 hours later, Rice was out of the NFL. This allowed Goodell to right his wrongs and attempt to recoup the credibility the league had lost. Ray Rice was cut by the Ravens and Goodell followed suit by banning him from the league. He went as far stating that no team could acquire his rights without Goodell approving it. In short, it appears as though Ray Rice will never be on another NFL roster, and given the CFL recently re-affirming that they would uphold any NFL suspension (with regards to Gordon), he’s likely done playing football in North America.  This is a very good thing.

It’s just a very bad thing that it took TMZ for Roger Goodell to get it right.  But he finally did; Janay Rice won’t file criminal charges, but the NFL can finally say that they did everything they could for her.

The real question is why did it take this long? What else could have happened in that elevator? Why did it take direct visual evidence for Janay Palmer's assault to have some semblance of justice?

Why isn't Ray Rice in jail?

Everyone Just Calm Down

Who's salty? You're salty.

LeBron James put an end to Decision 2014 (or The Indecision) yesterday by announcing he would be taking his talents back to Huntington Beach… on Lake Erie. He’s returning to the Cavaliers and try as I might, I haven’t found a welcome note in Comic Sans from owner Dan Gilbert.

What happened next was a reactionary wave so salty that it would have made the Dead Sea blush. Heat fans were mad, Knicks fans were mad. People who don’t even care about LeBron were mad.

Just calm down. I haven’t seen such a constant state of vitriolic nonsense about a pro athlete probably ever. You know that no matter what James did, you were going to decry him as some sort of punk. Stay in Miami? “Ohhh he just wants to be the man. Big man.” Move on to Cleveland? “Ohhh he just wants to surround himself with young guns to take the load off of him.” Move to Houston? “Ohhh all he wants to do is go around creating super teams so he doesn’t have to do the work himself (ignoring that the “Big Three” was LeBron, the rotting husk of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who went into full-on third fiddle mode).” Move on to New York? “Ohhh he just wants to be in the limelight, he doesn’t care about the game.” Move on to Chicago? “Ohhh he thinks he can replace Michael Jordan? Who does he think he is?”

To those of you who decried LeBron, think long and hard and be true to yourself. You would have had these reactions.

Yes The Decision was stupid. Who wouldn’t do something stupid like that when everybody in their heart of hearts wanted him to do something like that?

He did the exact opposite this time, and everybody has decided it’s just as bad, if not worse. He tried to learn from The Decision by quietly making his decision and not making a big spectacle of it. The media wouldn’t have that. His website crashed around rumors that an announcement was coming at 3:30 EST Thursday. There were people camped out in front of his house. So many, even, that there was a car accident. This was not LeBron James’ fault. The coverage of LeBron’s Indecision 2014 is exactly what’s wrong with sports media today. Multiple sportswriters were pulling random nonsense out of their rear ends in order to garner clicks. People were eating it up because they wanted to be able to get Real Mad about LeBron going back to Cleveland, or staying, or going wherever.

Everybody just chill. Let the man be. He doesn’t owe you anything, and he offered an explanation. Everyone has decided that his explanation isn’t good enough, and he should be drawn and quartered for it.

Let the man be.

Love to the Kings? Hate for the Kings!

The Kings have announced that they are willing to throw their hat into the Kevin Love Sweepstakes, and that they are willing to do it with no promise that Love will re-sign with the squad after the 2014-15 season. There’s already quite a bit of discussion on this across a ton of platforms. Sactown Royalty weighed in in favor of the Kings trading for Love. I, however, don’t think that this is the best move for the Kings. I actually don’t like it for a lot of reasons, but we’ll go through them individually.

           The Haul
Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA. According to ESPN’s PER (player efficiency rating) and EWA (estimated wins added), Love was third in the NBA behind a couple guys playing in the Western & Eastern Conference Finals (Kevin Durant & LeBron James, respectively). A player of this caliber doesn’t come up for trade very often. The last, biggest name big man that was traded was Chris Bosh in his sign & trade in 2010. Bosh was traded for two first-round picks from the Raptors to the Heat. We can start with that as a guideline for a likely package for Kevin Love.

First off, Kevin Love is better than Chris Bosh was. He is one of the best rebounding, shooting and passing big men in the league. Chris Bosh is no slouch but Kevin Love is eerily reminiscent of an extremly souped-up version of a former Kings’ big man in Brad Miller. That means it is likely that his price tag would be higher than Chris Bosh’s two first-rounders.

The second thing to consider with that deal is that Love is unlikely to come over in a sign and trade; the Kings already made it clear that they will trade for him without this stipulation. Given that Love is primed to be the most sought-after free agent of 2015. He can get a max-contract wherever he goes; he would be foolish to do a sign & trade before being able to gauge his market in 2015. That, to me, would lower the potential asking price for Kevin Love.

The third consideration for the haul would be that the Kings are straight up not very good. The Heat were primed to become World Champs two out of the three years Bosh was there (and counting); the Kings’ first round pick is likely to be much more valuable than the two the Heat gave up for Bosh. I, and I assume Pete D’Allesandro agrees, don’t think that a potential one-year rental of Kevin Love is worth a first-round pick in two drafts.

Where does that leave us? The 2014 #8 pick, which the Kings have already basically committed to trading, probably a second rounder this year or next and a player. But who? You have to look at who is available for the Kings to trade that is worth it for the Timberwolves. Rudy Gay? Ben McLemore? Sign & trade for Isaiah Thomas? Jason Thompson’s big contract (please please please)? DeMarcus Cousins is off the table. I would hang up immediately if I was PDA and the Wolves posited that trade. The Wolves aren’t bringing back Derrick Williams when they traded him for loose change.

Gay’s contract is too huge, though it matches up well for a rental as it’s a one-year player option. I doubt the Timberwolves would move the last year of Kevin Love for the last year of Rudy Gay, especially since the Kings would try to “sweeten” the deal with Jason Thompson as well. This trade would leave Sacramento, again, with a massive black hole at Small Forward. Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t work well from Minnesota’s perspective, unless the Wolves are ready to pull the plug on the Ricky Rubio Experiment. That leaves us with Ben McLemore. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but ended on a strong note, dropping a career-high 31 points on 20 shots. Certainly, the last time we saw McLemore he was quite impressive. His rookie season had a great load of ups & downs, but I personally think his career will be more ups than anything else.

Are the Kings willing to part with all that for a rental? Especially when the team needs a lot more to be competitive. If Love commits to a multi-year deal with Sacramento, you can bet that second becomes another first and potentially another player. All to land someone who isn’t really a fit with the Kings roster.

      The Fit
There’s a relatively new statistic called “Usage,” and I won’t bore you with how it’s calculated. In short, however, it basically explains how much a player “uses” his time on the court. Basically, who dominates the ball on offense. This can be skewed for players who don’t play a ton while dominating the ball when the come in—Jimmer Fredette is one of the league leaders for 2013-14. It’s basically a question of who needs to have the ball in their hands. Kevin Love was ninth last year among players with at least 25 minutes per game. That’s not a huge deal, he was the centerpiece of the Timberwolves. He’s mashed in between Kyrie Irving and John Wall.

Here’s the problem: DeMarcus Cousins is third, Isaiah Thomas is eighteenth and Rudy Gay is twenty-fourth on that list (at least 25 MPG). Those three guys all averaged over 20 PPG and accounted for over 3000 of the team’s ~6500 shots taken last season (the actual numbers come out to just about 48%). Trying to throw Kevin Love into the mix adds another quality name and a quality talent, but is an extremely inefficient use of resources.

In addition to the usage argument, Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay & DeMarcus Cousins all get knocked for their terrible defense. Guess who else gets knocked for his terrible defense? Kevin Love. The Kings may try to outscore and outshoot the opposing team, but if the top four guys on your squad play next to no defense? That’s a recipe for absolute disaster.

      The Inflexibility
So the Kings end up with Kevin Love. 2014 comes and goes and they narrowly miss the playoffs. They get nothing out of it, as the TWolves have at least the Kings 2014 pick (#8), the 2013 pick (Ben McLemore) and potentially their remaining 2011 pick (Isaiah Thomas) and the 2015 pick. How do we spend next offseason? Waiting to see if Love resigns with us. Sacramento also may have a big bill coming for Rudy Gay (albeit, given the new CBA, probably smaller than what the Kings already pay him). Kevin Love will get a max contract. DeMarcus Cousins already has a max contract. Max contracts only really work when you can surround them with under market value players (like the Heat have) and young/cheap contracts.

The Kings would trade almost all of their young players (excepting Ray McCallum) to obtain Kevin Love. So the Kings end up with Kevin Love and no real way to fill in around him.  This is a terrible idea for the Kings’ future to bring in a player that needs the ball as much or more than three players already on the team.

So what, then? The Kings don’t bring in Kevin Love. How do they get better? Well, by not trying to bring in just big names. Bring in a couple defensive stalwarts, one on the wing and one on the block and build from there. Bringing in Kevin Love would make a huge splash and would placate the less-informed fanbase, but it would be a disastrous turn of events for the fledgling ownership group.

On the 49ers' Draft Priorities

Who will get the red #1 jersey this year? Chances are, it will be another defensive back.

The first round of the NFL draft will be over just around 24 hours from now. This is touted as one of the deepest and most talented drafts in a long while. Just today, I listened to Todd McShay and Mel “Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd Todd” Kiper argue about whether 5 or 8 of the players in this draft are better than any given player in last year’s draft. With the 49ers having a lot of big contracts coming up, this draft and the cost-controlled players that come out of it could be make-or-break for the squad in the next few years. With six picks in the top-100, the Niners have the firepower to basically pick and choose where they want to get who they want. Here's, in my opinion, their biggest priorities, in descending order.

1. Cornerback – With the mass exodus of 49ers DBs (Donte Whitner is a Brown and Tarrell Brown & Carlos Rogers are Raiders), the 49ers are left with a massive hole in their secondary. They plugged the Whitner vacancy with free agent signing Antoine Bethea (more on that later). The Niners currently have Tramaine Brock, Chris Culliver (who didn’t play in 2013 and has had off-field issues), 2014 Harbaugh Reclamation Project (Chris Cook), Eric Wright, Perrish Cox (who is mostly special teams), Darryl Morris (who is all special teams) and something called a Dax Swanson.
   
   It’s bleak for the Niners at Cornerback. Luckily Brock came on big last year and Culliver was a starting corner before his offseason injury before last season. There is some hope there. Ideally, however, Eric Wright and Cook battle to be your fourth CB and Cox, Morris & Swanson never see the field.
   
   Ideally, and for completely different reasons, Perrish Cox doesn’t even make the team this year.
   
   
2. Wide Receiver – To anyone who watched the team struggle to fart out a passing game without Michael Crabtree last year, this is a no-brainer. While Quinton Patton’s return will definitely bolster the corps, I would definitely expect the Niners to have a CB and a WR before the first two rounds are done (as an aside, I fully expect them to package a second and a third together at least once to move up to have two picks between 30 and 45). This is the right draft to need a WR, as numerous in this draft are projected to be productive NFL players. To prevent the squad from crashing and burning on offense if there is an injury, they will need to add another wide receiver. Given that the Niners’ best deep threat is TE Vernon Davis, you would expect them to add a burner here.
   
   Add to the mix that the 49ers may not have Crabtree’s services in 2015, and the front office’s always forward-looking strategy, it’s basically a no-brainer that the Niners are going to walk away from day two (or maybe even day one) with a WR.
   
   In writing this, I literally forgot the Niners resigned Brandon Lloyd and still had Jon Baldwin. I would be shocked if Baldwin was active for more than a handful of games (pending injuries). Lloyd wasn’t even in the league last year, so I can’t really expect much from him.
   
   
3. Outside Linebacker – Behind Ahmad Brooks, who would be touted as one of the best defensive players on any other squad (but who is overshadowed by the entire rest of the LB corps), the Niners have nothing but question marks at the OLB position. Aldon Smith is an extremely talented head case who is struggling mightily with substance abuse problems (which will likely lead to a hefty suspension thanks to an incident in LAX last month). Behind him is Dan Skuta, who played well last year when called upon, but is mostly a special teams ace & second-year LB Corey Lemonier. I liked Lemonier last year coming out of Auburn, but he didn’t contribute a ton last year (a safety, a sack, 4 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 15 tackles). Finally, according to CBSSports.com, the Niners still have Darius Fleming. I was a big fan of Fleming when he was drafted, but all the poor guy does is tear his ACL.
   
   
4. Offensive Line – But Jeff, you say, the offensive line is arguably the strongest unit on the 49ers! Was arguably the strongest, and may be quickly falling apart. The 49ers allowed Jon Goodwin to retire by not returning his phone calls, and are turning to Joe Looney, Daniel Kilgore or whoever they end up getting in the middle rounds this year. Also of concern for the 49ers’ offensive line is the future of Left Guard Mike Iupati. He, like the aforementioned Michael Crabtree and QB Colin Kaepernick, are all in the final year of their rookie deals, and all are priority resigns.
   
   I don’t have faith that Iupati will be back in the red and gold in 2015. By tying up cash in Antoine Bethea and trading for the troubled Jonathon Martin, it shows that the 49ers’ front office has already partially moved on from the massive mauler. You want to get as many darts as possible to get one to hit; I fully expect Baalke to throw one at a Guard or Center, since if one works out, Looney & Kilgore could possibly fill the other.
   
   Offensive lines only get better with consistency and practice, so getting an offensive lineman this year to potentially start next year would be a good call.
   
   
5. Inside Linebacker – Right now, the Niners will likely only have All-Pro Linebacker NaVorro Bowman for about half the season as he is currently recovering from, and I believe this is the technical, medical term, “a destroyed knee.” Right now the Niners are set to start one of either Michael Wilhoite or Nick Moody next to Patrick Willis for about half the season. Much like with outside linebacker, the lack of depth at the inside linebacker positions could cause problems for the Niners if they don’t address it in the draft.
   
   
6. Defensive End – There’s no way around it: Justin Smith is an old man. He’ll be 35 before the bye & while his play seems to defy aging, this may well be the cowboy’s last ride. While the Niners are more than set at the other DE position with Ray McDonald, who is in the “awesome defensive player overshadowed by his peers” club with Ahmad Brooks, they’ll need to get some depth, and fast. They’re hoping that Smith’s replacement is already on the squad in the form of Tank Carradine. Behind Carradine, however, is Tony Jerod-Eddie, who is better suited as an interior defensive lineman and a “beautiful man” who is still learning the game in Lawrence Okoye. The Niners may end up with another D-End in this draft, given their litany of picks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed on the position all together.
   
   
7. Defensive Tackle – Tony Jerod-Eddie is promising, and Glenn Dorsey showed that he could have renewed life after busting out of the Chiefs system. Demarcus Dobbs filled in nicely last year, but he is better suited as a backup lineman. Starting DT Ian Williams will make his return from a broken ankle suffered from a cheap hit cutback block Week Two in Seattle. It’s unknown how well he can do, but the Niners can probably run through 2014 with their stable of DTs.
   
   
8. Quarterback – The Niners have Blaine Gabbert. ‘Nuff Said. They’re set. Moving on.
   
   Oh wait, Blaine Gabbert sucks? Whoa there, motherf… Okay, well let’s try this again.
   
   Colin Kaepernick wants big money, and the Niners want to give him big money, but not as big. I fully expect Kaepernick and the Niners to work something out next off-season, given that the cap is expected to skyrocket. Out of the big three names that are expected to get paid next year, I fully expect Kaepernick to be the highest priority. I put QB above the next few positions because the Niners desperately need to groom a backup/contingency plan in case Kaepernick bolts for greener pastures. Gabbert is nothing but a stop-gap and McBLT may never see an NFL field.
   
   If only we still had B.J. Daniels…
   
   
9. Safety – Antoine Bethea signed a multi-year deal this off-season, and Eric Reid is coming off a Pro Bowl season, and the Niners are very much hoping that Bethea’s last year in Indy was a fluke. Hopefully Bethea can return to his pre-2013 form. He rated very highly on PFF for his career, except for last year. Chances are, a bounce back is in order. Harbaugh & Co. are definitely banking on that in 2014. If that isn’t the case, this is likely a position to be addressed in 2015. The Niners lack depth at Safety, but this is a problem that most teams have.
   
   
10. Tight End – Vernon Davis is one of the best Tight Ends in the league, and is one of the most important parts of the team. He’s getting up there in age, but he is a freak athlete and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Last year’s second-round pick, Vance McDonald, has had a year to grow and flourish in this offense. Garrett Celek & Derrick Carrier are perfectly suitable third and fourth Tight Ends. The Niners will be fine at this position, but may look to draft a Tight End in 2015 or 2016, depending on how McDonald develops. They basically do not need to draft a Tight End this year, nor the #11 position.
    
    
11. Running Back – If you include Fullback Bruce Miller as a goal-line back, the 49ers have a complete stable of backs. It feels like they have every RB archetype, too. The solid, aging veteran (Frank Gore), the reliable backup (Kendall Hunter), the heir apparent to the throne (Marcus Lattimore) and the change of pace/scatback/Darren Sproles type (LaMichael James). They lost Anthony Dixon to Buffalo in free agency, so they may be looking to add another big body back with Miller. The thing about big, beefy RBs who can fall forward for a few yards is that they are a dime a dozen in the NFL. This should be the 49ers’ lowest priority except Special Teams.
    
    
12. Special Teamers – Don’t draft a special teamer, especially when you have Andy Lee & Phil Dawson.

Well there you have it. I’m not going to feign to know which players the Niners should be targeting at which positions. This is mostly a fool’s errand, given that every team looks at every player differently. Double so for a front office run by Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.

Whatever happens this weekend, remember one thing. In Harbaalke We Trust.