NFC Championship Preview: 49ers at Seahawks

I initially feared writing this piece. I feared that it would be me arguing my heart versus my mind versus my gut. This marks the third time the Niners and Seahawks, who many think are the two best teams in the NFC, go head to head. The series is split this year, but it isn’t as simple as calling it a “split.” Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were completely dismantled the last time they went to Seattle. I started to really dive into all the statistics, all the splits, all the opponent information and I’ve come up with a few insights about the game that don’t show too much bias but also put an interesting spin on the game that I haven’t seen put out anywhere else. I pulled all bias from this and tried to look merely at the numbers. Just the numbers (the blog can be temporarily named My Stupid Conclusions From Actual Statistics).

Niners Are Better than Seahawks in Rematches (Also, Down the Stretch):
This year, the 49ers have had rematches against their NFC West foes (Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams) as well as their last two opponents (Packers and Panthers). The Seahawks have had rematches against the NFC West and the Saints last week. In the second matchup, the 49ers are averaging slightly fewer points (22.6 vs 22.2—including 4 out of 5 games with exactly 23 points scored) but their biggest adjustments have been on defense. The 49ers defense is allowing 3.6 fewer points per game in their rematches (including allowing the exact same number of points to the Rams & Panthers, their last two rematches). The average score the first time the Niners played a team this year was a 22.6 to 19.6 49ers victory, the second time, the margin of victory was increased by just about a field goal, leading to an average score of 22.2 to 16.  A bit portion of this is the return of Michael Crabtree, which has led to a more confident Colin Kaepernick and a more wide-open passing game. Since the return of Crabtree, their offense has taken off to the tune of 37 more passing yards per game, one fewer turnover a game, but, oddly, nearly the same amount of points. Twice this post-season, the 49ers have gotten two field goals before their first touchdowns of the game. Their red zone touchdown issues persist, and they’ll need to break through to win Sunday. Of all the statistics in the world, only one matters: points.

The Seahawks have not fared so well in rematches this year. The first time through a team, they won in a blowout; 27.75 points to 10.25. In their second time around, they still won the majority of their games (as a 13-3 team is likely to do), but their offense fell by 8.5 points per game and their offense allowed 4.75 more points per game. This means that the Seahawks are less potent the second time around. Why could this be? Well, 4 out of their last 5 games have been rematches, including three out of four to close the season against the NFC West. The Seahawks have been the champs of the division all season long, taking the lead in week two and never looking back. It’s easy to get up and get ready for the #1 team in your division. It could also be that Russell Wilson has struggled mightily down the stretch (the passing game is averaging 40 fewer yards per game since their bye). Marshawn Lynch has admirably carried the load, but the sputtering offense has produced 3 fewer first downs a game since their bye, meaning Beast Mode is getting fewer opportunities. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks defense has responded by getting better, allowing fewer yards, first downs, and points.

The Seahawks’ Defense Depends on Turnovers (and the 49ers Don’t Give it Up)
The 49ers offense is predicated on making sure the other team does not get any free possessions of the ball—They have 19 turnovers in 18 games this year, which is an incredible feat (interestingly enough, the Seahawks have 19 turnovers as well, but in 17 games—still, this is impressive). The 49ers were tied for #2 in turnovers, and the Seahawks were in a multi-way tie for #3 (tied with Philadelphia, New Orleans & Carolina). #1 is was the Colts, and the Niners were tied with the Chiefs. Surprise, surprise, all these teams got a playoff game.  Back to the point at hand, the 49ers straight, flat don’t turn the ball over (of their 19 turnovers, 5—over 25%--came against the Seahawks in Week Two). A lot has changed with the 49ers’ offense since their last visit—Kyle Williams & Marlon Moore have been replaced by Michael Crabtree & Quinton Patton; the disastrous Read Option, run to such perfection in last year’s playoffs, has been ditched; the team has gotten its clock-management issues under control recently (practicing silent snap counts and audibles since Week 17 and focusing on getting the play off earlier as of last week). The major problems of the 49ers’ offense have mostly evaporated lately, and they are running hot. Their turnover issues have mostly disappeared (5 in their last 9 games). This 49ers’ offense is not as prone to turn the ball over as the Seahawks would like, and that can only work in their favor.

Frank Gore Probably Won’t Repeat One of the Worst Games of His Career
In their Week Two matchup, Frank Gore had 9 carries for 16 yards, which is his third-worst rushing yard total in all games in which he has more than 7 carries. Interestingly enough, one of the two worse games happened in Week 17, when he carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards. To cut the “Gore is done” talk off at the pass with those two stats, he also had two of his best games of his career this year, too (7.65 yards per carry at St. Louis and 7.45 yards per carry versus Indianapolis). Even if Frank Gore has another disastrous game, the 49ers’ offense has shown that their current incarnation is capable of overcoming a bad day from Frank Gore. The offensive line has played exceptionally well of late, stepping their game up significantly in pass blocking and run blocking, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics.  The 49ers will need a decent game out of Gore, and he’s shown that he can still deliver at his advanced (by NFL standards) age.

No Percy Harvin
The Seahawks announced on Friday that their massive free agent acquisition, Percy Harvin, will not be active on Sunday. In his 39 snaps this season (that’s not a typo), the dynamic playmaker had 4 receptions, which would play out as a significant contribution and role on offense if he could have stayed on the field. His actual production this year has not been incredible, but him being on the field would change everything. Coverage would roll his way, or he would be bracketed, or the outside linebacker would have to think about an end around from Harvin. Without him, the Seattle offense is… well, what it was most of the year. Kind of there outside of Marshawn Lynch.  One of the big reasons why having Percy Harvin out is that the Seahawks running out three wide receivers is decreased. With fewer wide receivers, there will be fewer defensive backs, and with fewer defensive backs, the 49ers get bigger and beefier. With a bigger and beefier 49ers defense, it makes it harder for Marshawn Lynch to run free. The harder it is for Lynch to run free, the more likely it is the 49ers win on Sunday.

And the reason why none of the above may matter…

Century Link Field & the Home Field Advantage
Seattle fans have funneled an entire franchise history of struggle and frustration towards the team that once called Candlestick Park home. They pure, straight hate the 49ers, and they will be out in force on Sunday. The 12^th Man, as they call them (trademark Texas A&M), will be going wild as they hope to secure their second Super Bowl berth of the last decade. All the statistics in the word don’t make overcoming the most formidable home field advantage in the NFL (or maybe all of pro sports) any easier. They’ll be ready for blood and can be a very real factor in this matchup. Honestly, they’re the only statistic Seattle needs in this matchup to give them a very real chance of winning the game.

The perfect question was asked of me this week: “Can the 49ers’ win this weekend?” Can they? Absolutely, they can. Will they? That’s another question. There are a ton of factors that will play into it. Much like Carolina, I think experience and the hot hand will win out and the 49ers will advance to 5-2 against Seattle in the Jim Harbaugh Era. If Russell Wilson stops his current schneid, I’m probably betting against the 49ers, but given that he pulled off barely 100 yards against a decimated Saints secondary, I wouldn’t count on that.

NFL Divisional Round, Sunday - The NFC: 49ers at Panthers

In a rematch of a Week 10 defensive slug fest, the 49ers travel to Charlotte tomorrow to take on the NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers. The 49ers’ last loss in Candlestick ever will ultimately be that loss to the Panthers. The Niners know that’s the case and in the words of QB Colin Kaepernick, “[the 49ers] owe them.” In the first game, the 49ers actually scored more times than the Panthers, but they were all field goals off the leg of Phil Dawson. There was one play that made the game last time, a 27 yard touchdown run by DeAngelo Williams, wherein Carlos Rogers screwed up twice. First, he ran straight into the back of another defender, and second, he whiffed on a tackle attempt as Williams ran past. If Williams doesn’t score there, the popular script for this game may be different. As it stands, the Panthers are one-point underdogs, which is an unpopular opinion among the Panthers and their fans, who feel as though they are being, “disrespected.” The teams come in with identical 12-4 records, and the 49ers winners of seven straight and the Panthers winners of 11 of their last 12. Neither one of these teams stumbled into the playoffs by any means. They feature two of the young, dynamic quarterbacks in the league and two of the top defenses.

How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Michael Crabtree
During the regular season 49ers-Panthers game, Michael Crabtree was one of three 49ers who didn’t play (if you count the severely-shortened day for Vernon Davis due to a concussion). The other one is Aldon Smith. While Smith’s absence was certainly felt, no return has been as incredibly beneficial to the 49ers’ overall success as that of Michael Crabtree. In the six games since his return, he has gone over 100 yards twice, and most importantly, the 49ers are undefeated. Merely having Crabtree opens up the rest of the offense. In the 12 games the 49ers played without Crabtree this year, they averaged 24.91 points per game on 308.55 yards of offense (173.45 passing, 135.09 rushing) and 1.45 turnovers a game. In the six games since Crabtree’s return, they are averaging nearly an extra point per game, over 50 additional yards per game (40 of those in the air) and the Niners are down nearly an entire turnover a game. Clearly, the offense that struggled mightily without Crabtree is clicking and flourishing since his return. His contribution will be key if the Niners want to make it to the NFCCG.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
Greg Hardy has already threatened to break Colin Kaepernick’s face if the 49ers’ Offensive Line isn’t up to snuff tomorrow. That’s a threat that likely isn’t going to sit well with the O-Linemen, who are very protective of Kaepernick. Hardy’s not exactly wrong, however. The Panthers notched six sacks in their first meeting with the 49ers, but Mike Iupati & Alex Boone were hobbled in that game. The Niners’ O-Line has been back together and playing at a high level for a few weeks now, and with the reigns off of Kaepernick to rush, they should hopefully be able to keep Kaepernick upright long enough to either make the throw or scramble. The one thing the 49ers’ offensive line was able to do well was run block, as Frank Gore went for 82 yards at over 5 yards a clip in their first meeting. Should the 49ers want to win tomorrow, the offensive line is going to have to keep Kaepernick off the turf in the backfield and ensure that Gore can get enough yards down field per attempt to keep the Panthers’ offense on the sidelines.

3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Attempt
In their four losses this season, Colin Kaepernick has averaged under 6 yards per attempt, and, excepting the win against the Seahawks, he did not go under 7 yards per attempt in any win this year. Clearly, the 49ers go as their quarterback goes, and if the 49ers want to have a winning formula, they will need to ensure that Kaepernick is put in a position where he can get that 7+ yards per attempt mark that they desperately need for him to win. The running game will be there, despite it being more difficult against one of the league’s best front sevens, who are allowing only 86.9 yards per game, second in the NFL. The Niners have shown that they can win when the running game isn’t up to snuff (see: Week 17 against the league-best-rushing-D Arizona Cardinals), but they’ve proven this year that if they have a downright awful passing game, the rest of the team is not strong enough to overcome it.

How the Panthers Win:
1) Important Player: Greg Olsen
With Steve Smith severely hobbled, and a receiving corps consisting of Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, Jr., it is obvious that Cam’s second option throughout most of the year will become his most important target against the 49ers. The 49ers have struggled in the short-intermediate passing game. They usually play man on the edges and zone in the middle, allowing for short, quick passes to be complete. Luckily for them, the Niners do this because they boast one of the best tackling defenses in the league. If the Panthers want success, they may have to dink & dunk to their tight end, as, even with Carlos Rogers likely not playing, the rest of the passing game is pretty much non-existent. The only thing to worry about is a deep ball over the top to speedster Ted Ginn. Luckily, Ginn was a 49er from 2010 until 2012, meaning that the defense has some serious experience in guarding Ginn. LaFell isn’t a huge threat, nor is Domenik Hixon. That leaves Olsen, alone, as Cam’s best option on a lot of plays if the Niners choose to roll coverage over to the side of the hobbled Smith. He was surprisingly effective this year, quietly tying for eighth most Tight End touchdowns (with former 49er Delanie Walker) and tenth in yards per game. He’s not a big, flashy name, but he is not to be ignored.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
When anyone talks about how great the Panthers defense is, they usually give the caveat that they’re talking about the front seven. If there is an area that is suspect on this defense, it is the defensive backs. Captain Munnerlyn was clearly their best defensive back, which means that whoever is up against Melvin White should be the target on the offense. Given that Luke Kuechly could be covering Davis, the key will be taking advantage of whichever of Crabtree or Boldin is being guarded by Melvin White, who, by Pro Football Focus standards, is their worst Cornerback in pass coverage. The Panthers will need a big day out of their Cornerbacks to stop the suddenly dynamic 49ers’ Wide Receiver corps.  

3) Important Statistic: Rushing Yards
The Panthers employ a three-headed (four, if you count Cam) monster at the running back position. Between Williams, Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, they offer different looks to the opposing offense. In order for the Panthers to move on to Seattle, they’ll need to make the most of those looks. As outlined above, the Panthers receiving corps will be left wanting for talent if Smith is completely hobbled. That means the game will fall on the shoulders of the running backs. Much like in San Francisco in Week Ten, this doesn’t necessarily mean disaster for the Panthers. Given that in the first matchup, it came down to the Panthers successfully executing their running game to score the game’s only touchdown, you shouldn’t be too surprised if the running game is central to any success they may have tomorrow against the 49ers.

Choosing between the Panthers and the 49ers for me has been an argument between head, heart and gut. Heart, obviously, favors the Niners, so I had to set that one aside to try to be objective. Head tells me that the Panthers shut down everything on defense and do just enough on offense to make sure their team comes out ahead (2011 49ers, anyone?). Gut, however, tells me that I am going to favor the team that’s been on a roll. A team that’s clicking and coming together at just the right time. A 49ers’ squad that has one in spectacular fashion three games in a row. With all their weapons in place and clicking at the right time, I am going to take a Niners team on the road in a defensive slugfest. They’re playing better football right now than the Panthers and this core squad is playing in their seventh playoff game under Coach Harbaugh, while Riverboat Ron & company will be playing the Panthers’ first playoff game since they lost to the Cardinals in 2008 (after losing to the Seahawks in 2005—they must hate facing the NFC West in the playoffs). I’ll go with the experienced squad. I’ll go Niners in a knock-down, drag-out brawl.

NFL Divisional Round, Saturday - The AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Colts and the Patriots square off today for what feels like an annual playoff tradition. The only problem is that this has traditionally been a matchup between the Peyton Manning-led Colts and the Tom Brady-led Patriots. Manning has moved on to Denver, and his replacement, Andrew Luck, is hoping that he will have better luck against Brady than Manning did. In their 13 Colts vs. Patriots matchups, Brady holds the edge, 9-4 (including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs). The Colts vs. the Patriots has become one of the marquee matchups in the AFC on the heels of the Manning-Brady showdown. Given the anticipated conditions and the current lineups of the two squads, it appears as though this won’t be the QB-off we’ve gotten used to when they square off. A terrible forecast and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected (depending on your source). If there is going to be a lot of scoring here, it isn’t going to be through the air.

How the Colts Win:
1) Important Player: Andrew Luck
It’s hard to believe when you look at him and the way he conducts himself on the field, but Andrew Luck is at the tail-end of his second year in the NFL. He has a short memory that is key for quarterbacks to be successful. In this game, he’ll need to play near-perfect after nearly losing the game last week. I contend that the quarterback lived up to his name last week, including a fumble that bounced off a defender into his hands for a score. He’ll need some of that juju as he takes on a weakened Patriots defense that will be, suddenly, without LB Brandon Spikes. Luck is not only a great physical specimen, he is a very smart quarterback. The Patriots will have a different look with different players out there. The Colts will need him to use his brain to perfection to pull out a win in Foxborough.

2) Important Position Group: Non-T.Y. Hilton Receivers
The book on Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes is that he likes to take away what you do best. After last week’s game in Indianapolis, that looks to be going towards T.Y. Hilton. LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener will need to come up huge in order for the Colts to come away with the victory in this one. Luckily, Luck is adept at finding the open receivers—something he’s been forced to learn quickly with his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, going out in the middle of the season. He responded by targeting mostly Hilton, but has gotten unsung players Whalen and Rogers in the mix, making sure he can beat opposing defenses when they shut down Hilton.

3) Important Statistic: Sacks
More specifically, Robert Mathis. The Colts’ ability to get their best pass rusher into the backfield to disrupt opposing offenses is the basis of their defense. They’ll need Mathis to have a good game and the rest of the defense to hold to prevent Brady from zipping the ball out when Mathis gets close. This will be a question of getting Brady onto his back early and often in order for him to prevent taking advantage of the banged up Colts secondary.  

How the Patriots Win:
1) Important Player: Tom Brady (duh)
Throughout the years, Tom Brady has played with a  varied cast of receivers. He’s had superstars in Randy Moss and he’s had complete schlubs like Aaron Dobson. The one thing that has stayed true has been Tom Brady’s ability to control the offense and produce. No matter who you put around him, Brady produces year in and year out. As long as Brady plays, he is the most important player for the Patriots’ success, bar none.

2) Important Position Group: Running Backs
The weather is going to be atrocious today, and that means that whichever team wins the ground game will likely win the actual game. The running back stable of Ridley, Blout & Vereen is one of the best around, and is definitely better than Donald Brown & Trent Richardson. Brady may be the most important player for the Patriots, but his decision-making to defer to the running backs may mean the difference between a Colts win and a Patriots win. If the weather was better, it wouldn’t be as important for the Patriots to have a successful running game. However, the weather will be terrible, so the running backs will need to be stupendous.

3) Important Statistic: Defensive Yards Per Carry
As I already outlined with the above point, the weather is going to be horrendous. Both teams will need to take to the ground for success in this one. The defensive line and linebacking corps of the Patriots has been decimated, including the recent loss of Brandon Spikes. If you’re the Colts, and you look at the fact that you have to beat the Patriots on the ground, you’re somewhat okay with that. The middle is absolutely decimated, and, while the Brown-Richardson combo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, they’ll be key this game. If the Patriots can hold the line and contain the running backs for the Colts, they’ll be punching their card to the AFC Championship Game.

This has been an up-and-down season for the Colts, who have beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos and Chiefs. They’re truly Giant Killers, but they also had down games—losing to the Rams and the Dolphins along the way. Andrew Luck and the rest of the team have made a great run of it this year. However, who am I to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? It’ll be uglier than ugly, but the Patriots have been built around their running game for a few weeks now. With an impressive stable of backs up against Donald Brown and Trent Richardson… Give me the Patriots.

NFL Divisional Round, Saturday - The NFC: Saints at Seahawks

Fresh off the heels of their first road playoff victory in Philadelphia, the Saints are the first team to face the toughest go in the postseason, traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks & The 12^th Man in Century Link Field. The Saints weren’t up to the task earlier in the year, so it’s hard to imagine them being up to the task in the post-season. It’s the first Seahawks home game since the infamous Beast Mode Run, wherein Marshawn Lynch shed a tackle from, and I’m not sure about this, all 53 men on the roster as well as Sean Peyton en route to a touchdown and a complete embarrassment of the reigning Super Bowl Champion. The Saints already lost once in Seattle this year, and Drew Brees & company are hoping for a different result. Both teams are two of the top defenses in the NFL, so this should be a good one to watch. The victor takes on the winner of the 49ers-Panthers game next week for the chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If the Seahawks win, they’ll host the game at “The Clink.” If the Saints win, they’ll take their road show to either Charlotte or San Francisco.

How the Saints Win:
1) Important Player: Mark Ingram
Last week, arguably the most important factor to the Saints’ victory over the Eagles was Ingram’s ability to rush the ball. He totaled 18 carries for 97 yards and a score, going for just under 5.4 yards per carry. Granted, the Seahawks’ defense and the Eagles’ defense aren’t exactly comparable, but in actuality, they are both extremely good against the run (3.8 YPC for Eagles to 3.9 YPC for the Seahawks). Given the “Legion of Boom’s” propensity for shutting down receivers, and the heavy winds expected in Seattle today, the Saints are going to have to do it with the run game to get it done today. With Mark Ingram becoming the lead back, his ability to run the ball will be vital today. In their first matchup, Ingram was not able to do much with his carries; going 8 for 22 yards before the Saints were forced to abandon the run in an attempt to make up their massive deficit. If the Saints can establish Ingram early & often, and maybe even take the lead, they can keep the Seahawks’ offense off the field and maybe pull out a win.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Line
Russell Wilson is a magician. He gets out of crazy tight jams behind the line of scrimmage that would make Harry Houdini blush. Add onto that Marshawn Lynch’s 4.2 yards per carry ranked second among all running backs with 300 or more rushes this year, behind only LeSean McCoy’s 5.1 YPC. Shutting down Wilson’s pocket and stopping Beast Mode will be key to the Saints’ success today. Both are a massive test, but the Saints showed last week that they can do both. According to profootballfocus.com, Foles had a 74.5% completion with less than 2.5 seconds to throw and 55.9% completion with more than 2.5 seconds in the regular season. The Saints were able to slash the first figure to 56.3% last week, but breakdowns in coverage led to an 82.4% completion percentage when he had more than 2.5 seconds. Russell Wilson is the king of quarterback improv, and the Saints will need to keep him contained and making quick decisions if they want to win. The key to this is the Defensive Line getting pressure on Wilson.

The Defensive Line will also be key in stopping Lynch. In their first meeting, the Saints were able to key in on Lynch, stopping him to the tune of 16 rushes for 45 yards, or 2.8 YPC. Subtract a 14 yard run, and it’s 15 for 31; a pedestrian day by anybody’s standards. If they can contain Wilson’s improv and shut down Beat Mode, the Saints stand a chance.

3) Important Statistic: Drew Brees’ Time in the Pocket
Brees led the NFL in dropbacks lasting more than 2.5 seconds; allowing the play to develop, waiting for breakdowns in coverage and finding the right man are all hallmarks of Brees’ game. This means the O-Line will need to hold up against the tough Seattle pass rush. Surprisingly, in their first meeting, Brees was only sacked once. Given that Brees was put in the turf 37 times this season that was a good day for the Saints O-Line. Not so much, though, when you factor in 3 hits and 9 hurries for Brees. Like previously said, he needs a lot of time in the pocket for the play to develop to get his team a win. If he’s rushed, he’s less effective. The Saints Offensive Line, just like their Defensive Line, will be key to the Saints potentially moving forward to face the Niners or Panthers.

How the Seahawks Win:
1) Important Player: Percy Harvin
I know it’s sort of strange to make Harvin, a player who has played one game with 1 catch for 17 yards, the key player to the Seahawks’ victory. A player that was an extreme non-factor in the regular season (12-3 without him, 1-0 with him). However, Harvin is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers and the Seahawks would be crazy to not force-feed him targets. There is exactly one game of tape on Harvin in this system (with limited snaps) and the Saints have not been able to gameplan for him. Like Kaepernick and the read option in last year’s playoffs, Harvin could be the unknown wrinkle that leads the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The reason Harvin is key to the Seahawks success now is that they now have their shiny new toy to play with. If it breaks immediately, they can go back to Tate or Baldwin, but if it’s ineffective, continuing to play with their shiny new toy may be their end.

2) Important Position Group: Defensive Backs
The Saints live and die by the pass, and your team would, too, if they had Drew Brees at quarterback. The Seahawks provide the perfect foil to the Saints’ passing attack, allowing the league-lowest 5.8 yards per attempt with a league-high 28 interceptions. The “Legion of Boom” seems custom-built to take out the second offense in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. It will be a battle of titans as Brees tries to fit it past the Seahawks’ defensive backs. The biggest obstacle for the DBs to overcome is the handling of Jimmy Graham. Graham was banged up earlier in the year at their meeting and was absolutely shut down by KJ Wright. Wright held Graham to 3 catches for 42 yards and a score (the score was a 2 yard chip shot, however.

The only problem, for the Seahawks, is that Wright is currently sidelined with a broken bone in his foot. His ability to shut down Graham will be sorely missed, as the Saints’ Tight End creates a unique matchup nightmare; this is a nightmare the Seahawks secondary is prepared to defend, but will be a key focus to move the Seahawks on to the NFC Championship Game.

3) Important Statistic: Decibel Level
The Seahawks broke the outdoor stadium noise world record twice this year, and have one of the most consistently loud stadiums in the NFL. Some of this is through the design; expertly built to reflect noise back onto the field, and part of this is the Seahawks fan base. They make road teams trying to hear each other at the line of scrimmage nearly impossible (this is key for the offense). This leads to wasted timeouts, delay of game penalties and poor communication overall. The Saints will try to combat this with earplugs (like last time) and by practicing all week with speakers blaring at practice. By some reports, they blew out two of these speakers trying to recreate the Clink’s highly audible fans.

The Saints are hoping to win their second road playoff game of all-time, and doing so at the site of a previous playoff embarrassment.  The Seahawks are hoping to continue their roll of success and avoiding being one-and-done in the playoffs. The Seahawks absolutely dominated the league for most of the year, but stumbled into the playoffs, splitting their last four games against the Niners, Giants, Cardinals and Rams. They lost to the two playoff-caliber teams of the four, but ended the season on a high-note, demolishing the Rams 27-9. Now that the road win monkey is off their back, and with one game of Clink noise already under their belt, the Saints are hoping a steady diet of Mark Ingram and putting Russell Wilson on his back will lead them to victory. Ultimately, you’d be stupid to not go with the better team at home in one of the biggest home-field advantages in sports. It pains me to say this, especially since it will be denying the 49ers a potential last game in Candlestick, but I’ll take the Seattle Seahawks in this one.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The NFC

There has been much ado this week about the game-time temperatures at Lambeau Field tomorrow. They’re rumored to rival the Freezer Bowl. It will be the high when it’s just 5 degrees above zero, so you know it will be cold. Rumored wild chill factors will plunge it as low as -50 degrees. If you’re not sure, that’s very, very cold. Basically, every person who isn’t wearing sleeves is being kind of stupid. Eddie Lacy said he won’t be wearing sleeves. That will be kind of stupid. I imagine a lot of players will immediately start bundling up once they get their first taste of the action Sunday. For the Packers, they are hoping to get vengeance for three-straight losses to the 49ers. For the 49ers, they are looking to replicate their offensive efforts from their last two meetings. In the playoffs last year, Colin Kaepernick set QB rushing records, and in Week 1 this year, he threw for over 400 yards. Offensive Coordinator Dom Capers hasn’t had an answer for Kaepernick in meetings one and two; he & Head Coach Mike McCarthy are hoping the third time’s the charm.

For the Niners, they are among the NFL's hottest teams, winning six straight, including impressive wins over division foes in Seattle and Arizona. They're rolling, and they hope to continue rolling into the Meadowlands in a few weeks. Make no mistake, this team is built for, and ready to return to the Super Bowl.

How the Packers Win:
1) Important Player: A.J. Hawk
The Packers’ best defensive player, Clay Matthews, will be out of the game with a broken thumb. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Packers’ defense. Well, bigger than the gaping hole there usually is in the middle of the Packers’ defense when Frank Gore & Colin Kaepernick are involved. Matthews is one of the best linebackers in the league, so AJ Hawk has big shoes to fill as the de-facto new leader of the LB corps. He has the unenviable task of trying to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. How he comes to play will be a massive factor in the result of the game.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
The offensive line was a huge issue for the Packers in 2012. Rodgers was put on his back 51 times last year. This year isn’t much better; the Packers O-Line allowed 45 sacks. Going up against a front-seven that likes to get after it with space eaters in Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and sack masters in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis get in on it occasionally, too. What does this all add up to? If the Packers O-Line can’t hold up, it’ll be a long day for the Packers.

3) Important Stat: Rushing Yards
The Packers are traditionally a passing team. Despite their home stadium, they have been built for decades on the shoulders of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. They added another dimension this year in rookie Eddie Lacy. He has been a revelation for the Packers’ offense, and is likely the only reason they are in the playoffs right now. When Rodgers went down, the Packers trotted out a cavalcade of failure in Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn (their own Cerberus of Suck). Lacy just kept running and running, keeping them afloat for the return of Rodgers. Given that the weather precludes an aerial attack, the Packers will need to rely on Lacy. If he has a big game, they will be in good position to win the game. Having a good game isn’t as easy as it sounds against the stout 49ers defense. They give up more rushing yards than they have in the past, but they still ranked fourth in the league at 95.9 yards per game. The Pack needs Lacy to come through huge for them.

How the 49ers Win:
1) Important Player: Colin Kaepernick
As Kaepernick goes, so go the 49ers. This year, when Kaepernick has his truly dreadful games, get destroyed. In their four losses this year, they scored under ten points three times. In their 12 wins, they averaged over 30 points per game. Clearly, this starts and ends with the 49ers’ signal caller. Kaepernick has become much better during the 49ers’ recent six-game win streak and the return of Michael Crabtree. He’s much more confident and poised and it shows that he’s a completely different quarterback with Crabtree on the field. This gives him three viable receiving options in Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. For the 49ers to win today, Kaepernick needs to continue his recent good play and the 49ers need to switch up the play calling, like they did in Week 17’s first quarter, where Boldin & rookie Quinton Patton both ran end-arounds. Patton’s run was for 26 yard rush made him the 49ers’ leading rusher last weekend, which tells you all you need to know about what was going on with the rushing game. That was a huge win for the 49ers because it showed that even if the running game isn’t working, Kaepernick is capable of pulling out a victory for the red and gold.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Carlos Rogers is most likely going to be out at Lambeau, and his backup, Eric Wright, pulled up lame at practice and is questionable to play. That means a copious amount of Perrish Cox, which means that the 49ers have developed a definite area of weakness over the past week. Luckily, the weather is going to be a significant factor tomorrow; cold stunts passing games, so hopefully the Niners missing two CBs should be mitigated somewhat by relying on the running game. If the Packers instead decide that they are going to pass it, it could be a disaster. Rogers and Wright usually covered the slot receivers in 2013, and on the Packers, that means that you’re going to be guarding Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson, two of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the best receivers on the Packers. Unless the 49ers rotate accordingly, it could be a long day for the defense.

                                                                                                               

3) Important Stat: Turnover Margin
In their 12 wins this year, the 49ers are averaging an over 2:1 turnover margin. In their 4 losses, they are averaging 2.5 offensive turnovers and 1.5 defensive turnovers. To the 49ers, protecting the ball and going after the opposition is the key to their success. They need to continue that on Sunday in order to move on and play the Panthers next week in Charlotte. That will be difficult on Sunday, as the Packers went seven games this season with one or fewer touchdowns. Turnovers will be extremely important to the 49ers’ success this weekend, and despite the Packers being stingy with the football, they actually gave up the rock twice in Week 1. While it’s a longshot for the 49ers to force multiple turnovers tomorrow, it isn’t outside the realm of reality.

The Niners have their work cut out for them against a Packers team that was missing several key pieces throughout the season & is stronger than their record indicates. Weather will also play a significant factor in what happens in Green Bay, and despite their natural climate, the 49ers are a “cold weather” team. Their success is built through the running game and defense, which are immensely “portable,” which, hopefully, means that the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be a massive task to overcome for them. I’m going with the homer pick here: Niners.

Wildcard Weekend, Sunday: The AFC

The Bengals and Chargers square off on Wildcard Weekend Sunday; a rematch of their Week 13 skirmish wherein the Chargers fell to the Bengals 17-10. The Chargers hope for a very different result in their second matchup this season. They weren’t able to beat the Bengals in sunny San Diego, and with a potential for snow today in Cincinnati, the weather won’t be any better for the Chargers. Ultimately, the Bengals should run away with this one, but given what happened in the games yesterday, you can’t rule out the Chargers despite all signs pointing to a Bengals victory.

How the Chargers Win
1) Important Player: Keenan Allen

The upstart rookie has been a revelation to the beleaguered Chargers offense. He only received run because everybody in front of him on the depth chart suffered serious injuries. The third round pick out of Cal did not disappoint one bit. He stepped right into the starting lineup and started wowing people immediately. He will be the focus of the Bengals' secondary, and Philip Rivers will need to look his way often if the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. In their first matchup he went for 8 receptions for 106 yards. Throw a score on top of that and the Chargers may have pulled off the upset. The Chargers realize that their best receiver, and maybe best offensive weapon, needs to get force fed targets in order to move on to the next round.

2) Important Position Group: Safeties
The Bengals offense is pretty much built around deep bombs to A.J. Green. Green is a next-level talent and shutting him down will be vital to the Chargers if they want to take on divisional foes the Denver Broncos next weekend. The Safeties will be crucial to this process, as the Chargers Cornerbacks aren’t exceptional enough to stop Green on their own. In their loss earlier this year, Green went for 5 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. Not a massive day, but the theme for the Bengals in that game is they seemed to do just enough to win. The Chargers safeties will be vital in making sure Green doesn’t break free. They’ll likely roll coverage his way, or even bracket him to ensure he doesn’t go long uncovered.

3) Important Stat: Bengals Receptions (Non-AJ Green Category):

AJ Green is going to get his on Sunday. In order for the Chargers to pull off the victory, they have to concede that fact. They need to ensure that players like Andrew Hawkins and Marvin Jones don't have massive games. Green can't beat the Chargers all by himself, and in order to upset the Bengals, the defense will need to make sure that the other receivers don't have a field day while they try to focus on Green. If the Chargers manage to keep the non-AJ Green receivers down, they stand a chance of winning in Cincinnati. Given that they’ll be likely rolling coverage towards AJ Green, that means that the Cornerbacks will need to have a big day shutting down Hawkins and Jones to give the Chargers a fighting chance.

How the Bengals Win
1) Important Player: Andy “Good Andy” Dalton
I say “Good Andy” because Dalton is notoriously schizophrenic on the field. He’ll throw for a ton of touchdowns one week and will be physically incapable of throwing the ball to a Bengal player the next week. Bad Andy actually showed up during their last meeting; The Red Rifle managed only 190 yards passing on 23 attempts for a pick and a score. But, it was enough to beat the Chargers back in Week 13. The Chargers are playing much better than they were back then, so in order for the Bengals to come out ahead, Good Andy will need to show up on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Offensive Line
In order for Good Andy to show up, the Bengals offensive line will need to stand up to the Chargers pass rush. This will give Dalton time to bomb it out to AJ Green or Marvin Jones. In their last matchup, the highest rated players on the Bengals were three of their offensive lineman (according to profootballfocus.com). They’ll need to again make sure Dalton stays upright so that he can pick apart the Chargers’ secondary.

3) Important Stat: Points Scored
I’m not quite sure what it is, maybe Mom’s home cooking? The Bengals have been absolutely rolling at home, scoring a low of 34 points in their last four home games; this includes wins over the Colts, Browns, Jets, Vikings and Ravens. Their defense is superb, but the Bengals will live and die by their offensive production today, and their offensive production has been good near the friendly Ohio River. I know that “score a ton of points” isn’t exactly insightful, but the Bengals have been doing it on a completely different level within Ohio (Their 6-17 loss to the Browns not withstanding) and they’ll need to continue that roll to defeat the Chargers for the right to move on and face the Patriots.

The Chargers basically stole a win from the Chiefs last week, who were resting 20 of 22 starters in preparation for their matchup against the Colts yesterday. That didn’t work out so well for the Colts, as they collapsed spectacularly, allowing for the Colts to mount an all-time comeback win. I think that the Bengals will pull this one out on the back of “Good Andy” bombing it out to AJ Green, but I am beyond guessing scores. I didn’t exactly get that crazy Colts-Chiefs game even close. I expected defense, I got a shootout. I’ll just make my pick: Bengals. The Chargers' last loss was against Cincinnati, and they'll replicate the effort.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The NFC

In the only game this weekend that isn’t a rematch of a 2013 game, the Saints and Eagles—two of the NFL’s most potent offenses—face off. If the Saints were at home, they would be an overwhelming favorite; they aren’t at home, and they went a pedestrian 3-5 away from the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. In fact, in non-dome games this year, they went only 2-4, barely eking out a victory in Tampa Bay & handling business in Chicago. They’re clearly a dome team (smart, given they play at least 9 games a year in a dome), but the compounding problem is that they’ll be playing in temperatures as low as 23 degrees, over 50 degrees colder than the friendly confines of the Superdome.

How the Saints Win
1) Important Player: Jimmy Graham
Outside of Graham, the Saints passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Marques Colston had a very respectable but un-Marques-Colston-like season. Darren Sproles continued to be a spark plug, ending the season with 71 receptions for 604 yards. The only problem is that Sproles would disappear for weeks at a time. Luckily, if the Saints have the Brees to Graham connection clicking, they should be just fine. A quick rundown of how important Jimmy Graham is to the Saints’ offense: he accounts for 19.28% of their receptions (86 of 446), 23.54% of their passing yards (1215 of 5162) and 41.03% of their passing touchdowns (16 of 39). If the Saints want a chance of winning in Philadelphia tonight, they’re going to have to go to Graham early and often.

2) Important Position Group: (Backup) Defensive Backs
The Saints lost two of their starting secondary players in the last seven games. They lost Jabari Greer to a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers in Week 10 and outstanding rookie Free Safety Kenny Vaccaro to a broken ankle in their game at Carolina.  Given the high pace and potency of the Philadelphia offense, the backup DBs who have taken their place will come in as extremely important members of the defensive unit. Their ability to step up to the plate on a handful of key plays may be the difference between an Eagles win or a Saints win.

3) Important Stastic: Yards Per Carry (Defense)
LeSean McCoy, if he knows his statistics, must be extremely excited for his matchup with the Saints’ running defense. They’re tied for fourth worst in the NFL (with the Chargers and Packers) at 4.6 YPC. This, combined with McCoy’s otherworldly rushing ability, means that Chip Kelly would be smart to dial up a ton of plays on the ground. If the Saints want to be able to move on to the next round, they’re going to have to figure out a way to cinch up that sagging run defense.

How the Eagles Win
1) Important Player*: Trent Cole
*Non LeSean McCoy Division

LeSean McCoy was the obvious answer here, but I outlined the Saints running game woes above & I didn’t want to just rehash those here. Outside of McCoy, Trent Cole may be the player most important to the Eagles’ success on Saturday. Cole is one of the Eagles’ sack leaders, but he spent his time since 2005 as a Defensive End, one of the big uglies with his hand in the grass. This season, Chip Kelly asked him to transition to Outside Linebacker. This position is still a pass-rush position, but with different tasks are expected of an OLB. Understandably, he’s struggled in pass coverage—that’s expected from a DE transitioning to an OLB, but his run defense and pass rush have been the best, combined, on the team, according to profootballfocus.com. Getting to Drew Brees fast and often will be the key to the Eagles’ defensive scheme if they stand a chance of winning Saturday.

2) Important Position Group: Tight Ends
DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant have been the main beneficiaries of the Nick Foles Experience, but Zach Ertz and Brent Celek will be key to the passing attack in this game. Ertz has extremely sure hands and Celek isn’t far behind him (5.26 and 8.57 catch rate—comparable to Julius Thomas & Vernon Davis, respectively). With the Saints worrying about Jackson & Cooper deep and McCoy rushing, the intermediate game should be available to the Eagles. This is where the Tight Ends shine. If the Eagles want to move on, they’ll need to recognize and exploit this matchup.

3) Important Statistic: Temperature
As outlined above, the Saints have been miserable outside of temperature-controlled environments, and Lincoln Financial Field tonight will be downright cold. This little bit of data is completely out of the Eagles’ hands, but this may be the most important statistic in the outcome of the game. The Saints played 10 games in domes this year (8 home games plus two road games at St. Louis & Atlanta) and 6 games outside. In the dome games, the average final score was 30.5 – 16.5; Saints. Inside, the Saints are averaging a two-touchdown victory. On the road, the final score was 18.17 – 23.16; opposition. Outside, the Saints are allowing an extra touchdown per game and muster almost half as many points. They’re also averaging 95 yards per game fewer outdoors. They’re a completely different offense outdoors. The defense also struggles outdoors, allowing 63 additional yards outside.  Granted, a lot of this can be attributed to road versus home, but the Saints lost only one game in a dome this year (including two road games) and went 2-4 outside of the dome. That’s more extreme than simple home/road splits.

This game should be a ton of fun to watch, with two high-flying offenses (second and fourth in yards per game, at just about 400 apiece) squaring off. The defenses will be hard pressed to keep up with the offenses that will be thrown out there this weekend. Ultimately, the Outdoor Saints will rear their ugly heads and won’t be coming away with the victory tonight.

Final Score: 38 – 31, Eagles.

Wildcard Weekend, Saturday: The AFC

The craziness of Wild Card Weekend in the NFL kicks off Saturday with the Chiefs at the Colts to move on in the AFC bracket and the Saints travel to Philadelphia for the rights to go to either Seattle or Carolina next weekend. All the teams involved are, obviously, very good, but none of them are going to run away with the games.  Here’s a quick breakdown of what the Chiefs and Colts need to do to win their game. With the Eagles and Saints being the night game, their preview will be available tomorrow before their game.

The Chiefs and Colts game is a rematch of their Week 16 matchup, in which the Colts sauntered into Arrowhead Stadium, held the Chiefs to 7 points and put up 23 themselves. With the vast majority of the Chiefs starters sitting in Week 17 (they were locked into the fifth seed), the Chiefs’ players have been sitting and waiting for this rematch for a full two weeks. The Colts reeled following the loss of Reggie Wayne, but seem to have righted the ship. After starting off 9-0, the colts stumbled into the playoffs, going 2-5 in their last 7 games after their bye.

How the Chiefs Win

1) Important Player: Jamaal Charles
Much like the rest of the 2013 season, the Chiefs will live and die on Saturday on the legs of Jamaal Charles. He was third in the league with 329 touches, and was in the same position in all-purpose yards (second if you ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s return yardage. The 132 all-purpose yards he averaged this year will be vital to the Chiefs if they want to win on Sunday. His league-leading 19 touchdowns prove his value in this offense. The Colts were middle-of-the-pack in pass coverage and run coverage, according to profootballfocus.com’s signature statistics. For the Chiefs to win on Saturday, Charles needs to take advantage of the neutral matchup.

2) Important Position Group: Cornerbacks
Before the Bye, the Chiefs boasted one of the stingiest passing offenses in the league, allowing just about 208 yards per game. Since the bye, they’re allowing an extra #1 receiver’s worth of yards through the air, increasing that 208 to just about 298 yards per game. To win against the Colts, it will be vital that the Chiefs stop the pass and force them to rely on Donald Brown and Trent Richardson on the ground. Brown isn’t very impressive as a back, and Trent Richardson makes him look like Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs can adequately shut down the pass, they just may be able to grit this one out.

3) Important Statistic: Turnovers
This one is important for both sides of the ball. In their 11 wins this year, the Chiefs averaged a whole two fewer turnovers per game than their opposition. In their losses, they are averaging 0.6 turnovers more per game than their opposition. Limiting the turnovers and creating them on the defense will be key in the Chiefs taking this one down.

How the Colts Win
1) Important Player: T.Y. Hilton
Since Reggie Wayne went down, the Colts have leaned heavily on their young Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton. Other receivers, such as Da’Rick Rogers and (especially) Darius Heyward-Bey are not nearly as talented. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s Stanford connections Griff Whalen and Coby Fleener came on late at the end of the season, but Hilton will be vital if the Colts hope to win on Sunday. He’ll need to take advantage of the aforementioned struggling cornerbacks in order to help the Colts win on Sunday.

2) Important Position Group: Pass Rushers
Specifically, Robert Mathis. Alex Smith, with time, is a smart quarterback who has just enough physical talent to make the smart pass where it needs to be. Get him under pressure and he is just not the same quarterback. Smith’s game is predicated on making smart, short, accurate passes and not throwing interceptions. Not throwing interceptions usually is in the form of Smith holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack. This will make the Colts’ pass rushers vital to their success on Sunday (especially with rookie OT Eric Fisher officially OUT for Saturday’s game).

3) Important Statistic: Yards Per Carry
The Running Back position has been quite volatile for the Colts this year. They started off with Ahmad Bradshaw being backed up by Vick Ballard with Donald Brown as the third back. Bradshaw and Ballard were placed on season-ending IR and the Colts traded for Trent Richardson. The current situation is an amorphous timeshare with it being (relatively) unclear who is the lead back. Brown is outperforming Richardson this year, but Richardson is still getting carries out of sheer stubbornness.

My Pick: The Colts dismantled the Chiefs two years ago at Arrowhead. At the same time, Andy Reid is incredible after byes. It’ll be a very hard-fought game, but I think the Chiefs will gut it out.

Final Score: 26-24.

Black Monday Reactions

The NFL regular season ended yesterday, and with it, twenty teams closed the doors on 2013 and started looking forward to 2014. Some of these teams decided to move on from their head coaches, an annual tradition dubbed “Black Monday,” around the NFL. Some of these decisions were a long time coming, and some were downright shocking. Here’s a quick breakdown (one of two) of who got let go today. I’d like to make the Black Monday a two-parter in case there’s a tardy shoe drop at some point on Tuesday.

Rob Chudzinski, Cleveland Browns (2013 – 2013), Overall Record 5-11:

Team 2012 Results:         5-11, 4^th AFCN                    Team 2013 Results:         4-12, 4^th AFCN

Shock Scale:                       5/5

The first firing of Black Monday actually took place pretty much as fans were still filing out of Heinz Field, site of the Browns’ 12th loss of the year and their seventh loss in a row. Poor Chud was playing the year out with a deck stacked against him all year. The Browns’ front office made it abundantly clear that they recognized 2013 wasn’t their year and they weren’t even making efforts to field a competitive roster. In the draft, they traded their fourth & fifth round picks for third and fourth round picks in 2014. They doubled down on 2014, when, suddenly, and without warning, they traded their 2012 first-round pick, Trent Richardson, to the Colts, for the Colts’ 2014 first-round pick.

It was made abundantly clear to all outside observers that the Browns’ front office was stacking the deck for 2014 from the get-go, and Chud did the best he could with a bad situation. He took advantage of having one of the NFL’s best young talent at WR by making sure his carousel of QBs bombed it to Josh Gordon as often as they could (Gordon was tied for 7^th with 159 targets… and he was suspended the first two weeks of the season). This one-man aerial assault worked to great success, as Gordon was the NFL’s leader in receiving yards (again, in only 14 games). Gordon also boasts the longest passing play of the season, the most 20+ receiving plays and 619 yards after contact (second to Demaryius Thomas among WRs).

This isn’t about Josh Gordon, though, this is about Rob Chudzinski. He did the best he could with the hand he was dealt. The Browns were a bad team in 2012, made no efforts to improve in 2013 in an effort to build for 2014 and beyond, and Chudzinski paid the price. Mike Silver released a series of Tweets from text message conversations between him and players. One player called Chud a “douche,” another said that the organization is a joke.

Compare this to the reaction video of the Jets locker room reacting to the announcement Head Coach Rex Ryan would not be a Black Monday casualty and you can see that Chud had lost the team. Maybe he deserved it, maybe he didn’t. He certainly wasn’t set up to succeed but at the same time, he may not have made the best of his situation.

And that 2013-2013 isn’t a typo; Chud lasted less than 365 days at the helm of the Factory of Sadness.

Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2012 – 2013), Overall Record 11-21
Team 2012 Results:         7-9, 2^nd NFCS                      Team 2013 Results:         4-12, 4^th AFCS

Shock Scale:                       1/5

Reason:                                                A worse affliction than MRSA

Shockingly, Schiano made it to Black Monday. Earlier in the season he ran Quarterback Josh Freeman out of town on a rail. Josh Freeman was eventually released, and rumors swirled that Schiano was the entire driving force behind his release. Schiano was initially vilified, but the play of rookie Mike Glennon in the following weeks made Freeman’s release appear justified. They nearly knocked off the Seahawks in Seattle, and then won four of their next five (for those of you counting at home, those account for all of their wins). They dropped three straight to the Niners, the Rams and the Saints to end their season.

Schiano was seen around the league as a bully of sorts. He had his players dive for the ball during a Giants’ victory formation last year; a violation of the league’s unwritten rules. He justified it as basically, “that’s how I roll.” The whole Freeman scenario was seen as another data point to support this narrative. There were several reports on NFL.com that have anonymous quotes that literally use the word, “bully.” Schiano was called out by 49ers Guard Anthony Davis (who was coached by Schiano at Rutgers) when he signed his contract extension because Schiano told him he would be a one-and-done player in the NFL.

It all shakes down to Schiano being a despot, requiring Napoleonic control of his players that cannot be achieved when they make millions of dollars a year. His shtick is better served keeping 18 and 19 year olds in line. It was no surprise to me that Schiano was fired; he’s been on borrowed time thanks to a four out of five dead cat bounce. After losing three straight to finish out the season to almost halve his win total from 2012, Schiano’s firing is far from surprising.

Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings (2011 – 2013), Overall Record 21-32-1
Team 2012 Results:         10-6, 2^nd NFCN                   Team 2013 Results:         5-10-1 4^th NFCN

Shock Scale:                       N/A

Reason:                                                JUST GIVE THE BALL TO ADRIAN PETERSON & GO

The Leslie Frazier firing literally did not elicit a response from me. Chudzinski was shock, Mike Shanahan & Schiano were inevitable, and Schwartz felt… right? I guess? News of Frazier’s firing didn’t really elicit a response. It’s not about the Vikings being irrelevant, they won the NFC North last year. In fact, the Vikings took a massive step backwards, halving their win total from 2012. There was hope around Minnesota that they had found the winning formula… A little bit of Adrian and a lot bit of Peterson. Unfortunately, the Vikings making the playoffs last year led to far too high of expectations for this season. The only reason the Vikes made it to their record from last year was due to Adrian Peterson’s ridiculous campaign. Expecting that to continue was a fool’s errand, and it may have cost Frazier his job this year… A mere casualty of falsely raised expectations.

That having been said, Frazier’s firing barely registered a blip on the radar of firings from today. The Vikings offense could be run by a random number generator (provided most of the combinations end up with “hand the ball to Adrian Peterson & let him do his thing”) and the defense isn’t anything to really write home about outside of Harrison Smith & the D-Line. He was hamstrung on offense by the Cerberus of Suck in Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder & Josh Freeman at quarterback. The biggest problem with Frazier was not recognizing the talent he had this year in Cordarelle Patterson. He had a playbook full of plays perfectly designed for Patterson leftover from Percy Harvin, and Frazier just started deploying the rookie dynamo.

Mike Shanahan, Washington Redskins (2009 – 2013), Overall Record 24-40
Team 2012 Results:         10-6, 1^st, NFCE                                   Team 2013 Results:         3-13, 4^th, NFCE
Shock Scale:                       0/5
Reason:                                                Acute Costanzaing

Shanahan’s firing was a long, long time coming. After the team’s week fourteen loss at home versus the Chiefs, he benched Robert Griffin III under the guise of ensuring he would be ready for training camp next year. In actuality, RGIII probably shouldn’t have returned week one this year. He was a shell of his rookie self, hobbling all over the field. People at that time thought his firing would be imminent. Instead there were weeks of back-and-forth about his relationship with owner Dan Snyder.

To say that Cousins faltered would be generous. He was horrible. No matter what justification Shanahan had, his true intention was clear: get fired.  He repeatedly cited the reason for the RGIII benching as concern over the player’s health and getting him ready for next year. One of the lone bright spots of the Redskins’ 2013 season was the breakout of young Tight End Jordan Reed. Reed spent the last few weeks of the season stalling out in the league’s concussion protocol with machinations of having Reed return.

Why? The season was lost, and given the current NFL situation with regards to concussions and concussion protocol, wouldn’t it have been prudent to put Reed on season-ending IR to preserve his health? Of course it would. That’s just one of the baffling things that Shanahan did that can only be explained as a severe case of Costanzaing. He got his wish on Monday, as the icy relationship between him and owner Dan Snyder was officially ended.

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions (2009 – 2013), Overall Record 29-51
Team 2012 Results:         4-12, 4^th, NFCN                                  Team 2013 Results:         7-9, 3^rd, NFCN
Shock Scale:                       2/5
Reason:                                                Choke Artistry

At the end of November, the Detroit Lions stood at 7-5. The Packers and Bears, hamstrung by injuries to Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, respectively, were floundering. The division was theirs for the taking. What happened next was one of the most out-of-control December collapses as they lost four straight to end the season at 7-9 and behind both the Packers and Bears. Three of the teams they lost to—The Ravens, Giants and Vikings—missed the playoffs. The Giants and Vikings weren’t even close, either. The Packers won the division at 8-7-1, so if the Lions had managed to put together 2 wins and end 9-7, the division would have been theirs.

The most shocking part about Schwartz’s firing is that he made it this far. He actually improved the Lions’ lot by three wins over last year’s disastrous 4-12 season. This is likely because the Lions gave him a season to prove the 2011 playoff berth wasn’t a fluke. They retooled the roster & brought in Reggie Bush to give their offense a second weapon other than Calvin Johnson. Bush couldn’t stay on the field as frequent fumbles led to him being benched in favor of Joique Bell.  I actually thought that bringing in Bush over Bell was silly as Bell had a great 2011 campaign (this is all outlined in one of my earlier posts).

Schwartz was never really that great of a coach, and he always felt like he was on the verge of complete emotional breakdown. He famously tried to fight Jim Harbaugh a couple of years ago over a perceived slight. While he doesn’t have quite the bully persona of a Greg Schiano, he definitely had a chip on his shoulder. Detroit will be better off with a different set of coaches next year & Schwartz will be in a better spot as a coordinator.

Black Monday is usually not the end of the line for the coaches. It’s rumored as of this morning that Frazier will go wherever Lovie Smith goes (if he goes anywhere) and Schwartz is rumored to be in on the Browns Defensive Coordinator job. Chud’s contract was $10 million guaranteed; Shanahan is owed about $7 million next year. Black Monday firings can also energize a team or give them a new dimension. Last year the Chargers replaced Norv Turner with Mike McCoy, the Eagles replaced Andy Reid with Chip Kelly & Reid moved on to Kansas City, where he replaced Romeo Crennel. Ken Whisenhunt was replaced by Bruce Arians in Arizona. Four other teams had head coaching moves that went nowhere (Browns, Jaguars, Bills & Bears), but the Chargers, Eagles, Chiefs & Cardinals are all vastly improved this year, with the first three making the playoffs and the fourth barely missing out at 10-6.